4 ms·

Software is dead, if it isn't a prompt now, it will be a prompt in 6 months. Most of what we think software is today, will just be a UI. But UIs are also dead.

cpursley 2y ago
Software without data moats, vender lock-in, etc sure will. All the low handing fruit saas is going to get totally obliterated by LLM built-software.
- sitkack 2y ago
  Totally agree.
- fragmede 2y ago
  If I'm an autobody shop or some other well-served niche, how unhappy with them do I have to be to decide to find a replacement, either a competitor of theirs that used an LLM, or bring it in house and go off and find a developer to LLM-acceleratedly make me a better shopmonkey? And there are the integrations. I don't own a low hanging fruit SaaS company, but it seems very sticky, and since the established company already exists, they can just lower prices to meet their competitors. B2B is different from B2C, so if one vendor has a handful of clients and they won't switch away, there's no obliterating happening. What's opened up is even lower hanging fruit, on more trees. A SaaS company charging $3/month for the left-handed underwater basket weaver niche now becomes viable as a lifestyle business. The shovels in this could be supabase/similar, since clients can keep access to their data there even if they change frontends.
  - sitkack 2y ago
    Which means that the current vc-software-ecosystem is the walking dead. The front end webdev is now going to do things that previously took a 10 person startup.
  - cpursley 2y ago
    Integrations is part of the data moat I mentioned.
- Vrondi 2y ago
  The only thing that will be different for most is vendor lock-in will be to LLM vendors.
SketchySeaBeast 2y ago
I wonder about these takes. Have you never worked in a complex system in a large org before? OK, sure, we can parse a PDF reliably now, but now we need to act on that data. We need to store it, make sure it ends up with the right people who need to be notified that the data is available for their review. They then need to make decisions upon that data, possible requiring input from multiple stakeholders. All that back and forth needs to be recorded and stored, along with the eventual decision and the all supporting documents and that whole bundle needs to be made available across multiple systems, which requires a bunch of ETLs and governance. An LLM with a prompt doesn't replace all that.
- sitkack 2y ago
  We need to think terms of light cones, not dog and pony take downs of whatever system you are currently running. See where thigns are going. I have worked in large systems, both in code and people, compilers, massive data processing systems, 10k business units.
  - collingreen 2y ago
    I don't know what light cones or dog and pony mean here but I'm interested in your take - would you care to expand a bit on how the future can reshape that very complicated set of steps and humans described in the parent?
  - SketchySeaBeast 2y ago
    I think collingreen followed-up better than I ever could, so I'm hoping you can respond to them with more details.
victorbjorklund 2y ago
Can you prompt a salesforce replacement for an org with 100 000 employees?
- mrbungie 2y ago
  Yesterday I read an /r/singularity post in awe cus of a screenshot of a lead management platform from OAI in a japan convention supposedly meant a direct threat to SalesForce. Like, yeah sure buddy. I would say most acceleracionist/AI bulls/etc don't really understand the true essential complexity in software development. LLMs are being seen as a software development silver bullets, and we know what happens with silver bullets.
  - sitkack 2y ago
    Come back your comment in 18 months.
    - collingreen 2y ago
      I assume this is a slap intended to imply that ai actually IS a silver bullet answer to the parent's described problem and in just 18 months they will look back and realize how wrong they are. Is that what you mean and, if so, is there anything in particular you've seen that leads you to see these problems being solved well or on the 18 month timeline? That sounds interesting to look at to me and I'd love to know more.
      - sitkack 2y ago
        It isn't a silver bullet in that it can just "make software" but it is changing the entire dynamic. You can't do point sampling to figure out where things are going. We have to look at the slope. People see a paper come out, look at the results and say, "this fails for x, y and z. doesn't work", that is now how scientific research works. This is why two minute papers has the tag line, "hold on to your papers ... two papers down the line ..." Copy and paste the whole thread into a SOTA model and have meta me explain it.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

cpursley 2y ago

Software without data moats, vender lock-in, etc sure will. All the low handing fruit saas is going to get totally obliterated by LLM built-software.

sitkack 2y ago
Totally agree.
fragmede 2y ago
If I'm an autobody shop or some other well-served niche, how unhappy with them do I have to be to decide to find a replacement, either a competitor of theirs that used an LLM, or bring it in house and go off and find a developer to LLM-acceleratedly make me a better shopmonkey? And there are the integrations. I don't own a low hanging fruit SaaS company, but it seems very sticky, and since the established company already exists, they can just lower prices to meet their competitors. B2B is different from B2C, so if one vendor has a handful of clients and they won't switch away, there's no obliterating happening. What's opened up is even lower hanging fruit, on more trees. A SaaS company charging $3/month for the left-handed underwater basket weaver niche now becomes viable as a lifestyle business. The shovels in this could be supabase/similar, since clients can keep access to their data there even if they change frontends.
- sitkack 2y ago
  Which means that the current vc-software-ecosystem is the walking dead. The front end webdev is now going to do things that previously took a 10 person startup.
- cpursley 2y ago
  Integrations is part of the data moat I mentioned.
Vrondi 2y ago
The only thing that will be different for most is vendor lock-in will be to LLM vendors.

SketchySeaBeast 2y ago

I wonder about these takes. Have you never worked in a complex system in a large org before? OK, sure, we can parse a PDF reliably now, but now we need to act on that data. We need to store it, make sure it ends up with the right people who need to be notified that the data is available for their review. They then need to make decisions upon that data, possible requiring input from multiple stakeholders. All that back and forth needs to be recorded and stored, along with the eventual decision and the all supporting documents and that whole bundle needs to be made available across multiple systems, which requires a bunch of ETLs and governance. An LLM with a prompt doesn't replace all that.

sitkack 2y ago
We need to think terms of light cones, not dog and pony take downs of whatever system you are currently running. See where thigns are going. I have worked in large systems, both in code and people, compilers, massive data processing systems, 10k business units.
- collingreen 2y ago
  I don't know what light cones or dog and pony mean here but I'm interested in your take - would you care to expand a bit on how the future can reshape that very complicated set of steps and humans described in the parent?
- SketchySeaBeast 2y ago
  I think collingreen followed-up better than I ever could, so I'm hoping you can respond to them with more details.

victorbjorklund 2y ago

Can you prompt a salesforce replacement for an org with 100 000 employees?

mrbungie 2y ago
Yesterday I read an /r/singularity post in awe cus of a screenshot of a lead management platform from OAI in a japan convention supposedly meant a direct threat to SalesForce. Like, yeah sure buddy. I would say most acceleracionist/AI bulls/etc don't really understand the true essential complexity in software development. LLMs are being seen as a software development silver bullets, and we know what happens with silver bullets.
- sitkack 2y ago
  Come back your comment in 18 months.
  - collingreen 2y ago
    I assume this is a slap intended to imply that ai actually IS a silver bullet answer to the parent's described problem and in just 18 months they will look back and realize how wrong they are. Is that what you mean and, if so, is there anything in particular you've seen that leads you to see these problems being solved well or on the 18 month timeline? That sounds interesting to look at to me and I'd love to know more.
    - sitkack 2y ago
      It isn't a silver bullet in that it can just "make software" but it is changing the entire dynamic. You can't do point sampling to figure out where things are going. We have to look at the slope. People see a paper come out, look at the results and say, "this fails for x, y and z. doesn't work", that is now how scientific research works. This is why two minute papers has the tag line, "hold on to your papers ... two papers down the line ..." Copy and paste the whole thread into a SOTA model and have meta me explain it.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]