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Markets aren't rational. NVidia is currently a hype stock which means LOTS of speculation, probably with lots of leverage. So, the people who have made large g

Markets aren't rational. NVidia is currently a hype stock which means LOTS of speculation, probably with lots of leverage. So, the people who have made large gains and/or are leveraged are highly incentivized to panic sell on any PERCEIVED bad news. It doesn't even matter if the bad news will materially impact sales. What matters is how the other gamblers will react to the news and getting in front of them. :)

aunty_helen 2y ago
Another thing, the markets had priced in X demand scaling @ ~145 and suddenly it's X/30 demand scaling and therefore the price should drop.
- skellington 2y ago
  True, but current price isn't based on fundamentals, it's based on hype-value. nVidia is going to be a very volatile stock for years to come. I don't see deepseek changing nvidia's short term growth potential though. Efficiencies in training were always inevitable, but more GPU still equals smarter AI....probably.
- Jlagreen 2y ago
  That's wrong. DeepSeek is a problem for Big Tech, not for Nvidia. Why? Imagine a small startup can do something better than Gemini or ChatGPT or Claude. So it can be disruptive. What can Big Tech do to avoid disruption? Buying every SINGLE GPU Nvidia produces! They have the money and they can use the GPUs in research. The worst nightmare of any Tech CEO is a startup which disrupts you so you have to either be faster or you kill access to needed infrastructure for the startup. Or even better, the startup has to rent your cloud infrastructure, this way you earn money and you have an eye on what's going on. Additionally, Hyperscalers only get 50-60% of Nvidia's supply. They all complain of being undersupplied yet they get only 60% and not 99% of Nvidia's supply. How come? Because Nvidia has a lot of other customers they like to supply to. That alone tells you how huge the demand is that Nvidia even has to delay Big Tech deliveries. Also the demand for Nvidia didn't drop. DeepSeek isn't a frontier model. It's a distilled model therefore the moment OpenAI, Meta or the others release a new frontier model, DeepSeek will become obsolete and will have to start again to optimize.
  - Tostino 2y ago
    You're wrong on deepseek. It's not distilled (actual r1 model is based off v3). So, so many misinformed takes in this thread (not just you...)

aunty_helen 2y ago

Another thing, the markets had priced in X demand scaling @ ~145 and suddenly it's X/30 demand scaling and therefore the price should drop.

skellington 2y ago
True, but current price isn't based on fundamentals, it's based on hype-value. nVidia is going to be a very volatile stock for years to come. I don't see deepseek changing nvidia's short term growth potential though. Efficiencies in training were always inevitable, but more GPU still equals smarter AI....probably.
Jlagreen 2y ago
That's wrong. DeepSeek is a problem for Big Tech, not for Nvidia. Why? Imagine a small startup can do something better than Gemini or ChatGPT or Claude. So it can be disruptive. What can Big Tech do to avoid disruption? Buying every SINGLE GPU Nvidia produces! They have the money and they can use the GPUs in research. The worst nightmare of any Tech CEO is a startup which disrupts you so you have to either be faster or you kill access to needed infrastructure for the startup. Or even better, the startup has to rent your cloud infrastructure, this way you earn money and you have an eye on what's going on. Additionally, Hyperscalers only get 50-60% of Nvidia's supply. They all complain of being undersupplied yet they get only 60% and not 99% of Nvidia's supply. How come? Because Nvidia has a lot of other customers they like to supply to. That alone tells you how huge the demand is that Nvidia even has to delay Big Tech deliveries. Also the demand for Nvidia didn't drop. DeepSeek isn't a frontier model. It's a distilled model therefore the moment OpenAI, Meta or the others release a new frontier model, DeepSeek will become obsolete and will have to start again to optimize.
- Tostino 2y ago
  You're wrong on deepseek. It's not distilled (actual r1 model is based off v3). So, so many misinformed takes in this thread (not just you...)