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Inflation is down and the economy is doing better, but what's the point when poverty rates just skyrocketed to over 50% of the population [1]? Will it "trickle

Inflation is down and the economy is doing better, but what's the point when poverty rates just skyrocketed to over 50% of the population [1]? Will it "trickle down", like it never did anywhere? Moreover, cutting public services as aggressively as Milei did is bound to hurt the economy in the long term, with less access to education, healthcare, worsening public transit... All things companies rely on the state to provide their employees. If you need proof of the dangers of austerity, take a look at the UK. They reduced spending, but are they really better off? [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqn751x19no https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqn751x19no

Empact 2y ago
Several sources report more recent data showing a drop to 37-39%. The picture in Argentina was not rosy before Milei took office, it was a country on the verge of hyperinflationary collapse. Given that starting position, IMO it’s remarkable how quickly things have turned around. https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/expert-reports-say-argentinas-poverty-rate-has-fallen-to-368.phtml https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/expert-reports-say... https://x.com/marionawfal/status/1870100943418630363?s=46 https://x.com/marionawfal/status/1870100943418630363?s=46
- thrance 2y ago
  My numbers are from December, did we really see a drop of 15% in a month? One of us has to be wrong, and I don't see many sources claiming your numbers, the X one you gave is clearly partisan, opening with "MILEI DELIVERS".
  - Empact 2y ago
    The article you cite is from September 2024. Where are you getting December?
marcosdumay 2y ago
The poverty rate above 50% of the population is something that happens when a country goes over several corrupt governments that steal everything the people have and put it in the hands of a handful of people that are always prepared to flee. All those people failing to notice Argentina was poor before Milei got the presidency either have no idea what they are talking about or are malicious. Now, yes, about worsening public services; Milei did the basic thing so the country can actually do something, the real test for his government is how he fixes those problems. (From the shit he talks, I would be in he not fixing anything, but if he actually acted like he talks he wouldn't have got inflation under control and would probably be already out of the presidency by now.)
- tptacek 2y ago
  When you note the increase in a statistic like poverty, you are implicitly taking into account the status of the country under its previous governance. That's how statistics work.
  - cryptonector 2y ago
    It was already baked into the cake because the previous administration spent something like 13% of GDP in its last year in order to win the election that they went on to lose. 13% of GDP's worth of malinvestment will increase poverty in due time, and that time was Milei's first year in government. In 2001 the Peronists left the next non-Peronist government a ticking time bomb, the next government (De La Rúa's)completely fumbled and had to end early, returning power to the Peronists. In 2023-2024 the Peronist plan was to repeat that experience. Unlike De La Rúa though, Milei seems to know what he's doing and so has been able to head off the putsch. It would be hard to push Milei out of power when his popularity right now is higher than his election winning percentage. Also do keep in mind that in 2012 the Peronist government "intervened" the government's statistics department, and since then government stats were somewhere between unreliable and total fiction. Presumably that has changed now. Thus the poverty level before the election could have been understated, just as the inflation numbers then were.
    - gus_massa 2y ago
      Since the end of 2015 with Macri and then with A. Fernandez the statistic department is normalized and the numbers were quite good. (It's too optimistic to claim 100% accurate, but I don't remember mayor problems since 2015.)
  - marcosdumay 2y ago
    Economical statistics don't work under fast inflation. But if you believed a country bordering hyperinflation had less than 50% of the population in poverty, I have a bridge to sell you.
- AtlasBarfed 2y ago
hackeraccount 2y ago
do you want cheap prices and empty shelves or high prices and non-empty shelves?
- a2tech 2y ago
  I think people want to buy food and not starve. So neither I guess?
asveikau 2y ago
I don't know if they have inflation under control if, like TFA says, the locals tell him they drive to Chile to buy tires for less than half the price.
bradleyjg 2y ago
Inflation is down and the economy is doing better, but what's the point when poverty rates just skyrocketed to over 50% of the population [1]? Will it "trickle down", like it never did anywhere? This seems not true. The poor in countries with high gdp per capita are much better off than in countries with low gdp per capita. They are also better off than the poor were in prior times when those countries had lower gdp per capita. So some kind of trickling down must have happened. It might be more convenient for your sense of moral indignation if it were otherwise but facts are facts.
- thrance 2y ago
  This is some kind of mental gymnastics right there, I showed you poverty is rising and we're supposed to take it as meaning the people are richer for it? Show me a single example of a country drastically slashing public spending and its citizens living better afterwards.
nradov 2y ago
It's silly to claim that austerity is dangerous. Dangerous compared to what? Argentina had reached the logical end state of socialism and literally run out of other people's money to spend. There was no more room to raise taxes or borrow so austerity was the only remaining choice. Poverty statistics are meaningless. The numbers under previous administrations were heavily manipulated and don't provide a solid basis for comparison.
gus_massa 2y ago
It was at 40% when he started. A 10% increase is not good, but with the high inflation and other economical problems it was not clear that doing nothing would keep the poverty at 40%. The most recent reports say that it's now at 37%, it's probably correct, but take all reports with a grain of salt.

Empact 2y ago

Several sources report more recent data showing a drop to 37-39%. The picture in Argentina was not rosy before Milei took office, it was a country on the verge of hyperinflationary collapse. Given that starting position, IMO it’s remarkable how quickly things have turned around. https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/expert-reports-say-argentinas-poverty-rate-has-fallen-to-368.phtml https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/expert-reports-say... https://x.com/marionawfal/status/1870100943418630363?s=46 https://x.com/marionawfal/status/1870100943418630363?s=46

thrance 2y ago
My numbers are from December, did we really see a drop of 15% in a month? One of us has to be wrong, and I don't see many sources claiming your numbers, the X one you gave is clearly partisan, opening with "MILEI DELIVERS".
- Empact 2y ago
  The article you cite is from September 2024. Where are you getting December?

marcosdumay 2y ago

The poverty rate above 50% of the population is something that happens when a country goes over several corrupt governments that steal everything the people have and put it in the hands of a handful of people that are always prepared to flee. All those people failing to notice Argentina was poor before Milei got the presidency either have no idea what they are talking about or are malicious. Now, yes, about worsening public services; Milei did the basic thing so the country can actually do something, the real test for his government is how he fixes those problems. (From the shit he talks, I would be in he not fixing anything, but if he actually acted like he talks he wouldn't have got inflation under control and would probably be already out of the presidency by now.)

tptacek 2y ago
When you note the increase in a statistic like poverty, you are implicitly taking into account the status of the country under its previous governance. That's how statistics work.
- cryptonector 2y ago
  It was already baked into the cake because the previous administration spent something like 13% of GDP in its last year in order to win the election that they went on to lose. 13% of GDP's worth of malinvestment will increase poverty in due time, and that time was Milei's first year in government. In 2001 the Peronists left the next non-Peronist government a ticking time bomb, the next government (De La Rúa's)completely fumbled and had to end early, returning power to the Peronists. In 2023-2024 the Peronist plan was to repeat that experience. Unlike De La Rúa though, Milei seems to know what he's doing and so has been able to head off the putsch. It would be hard to push Milei out of power when his popularity right now is higher than his election winning percentage. Also do keep in mind that in 2012 the Peronist government "intervened" the government's statistics department, and since then government stats were somewhere between unreliable and total fiction. Presumably that has changed now. Thus the poverty level before the election could have been understated, just as the inflation numbers then were.
  - gus_massa 2y ago
    Since the end of 2015 with Macri and then with A. Fernandez the statistic department is normalized and the numbers were quite good. (It's too optimistic to claim 100% accurate, but I don't remember mayor problems since 2015.)
- marcosdumay 2y ago
  Economical statistics don't work under fast inflation. But if you believed a country bordering hyperinflation had less than 50% of the population in poverty, I have a bridge to sell you.
AtlasBarfed 2y ago

hackeraccount 2y ago

do you want cheap prices and empty shelves or high prices and non-empty shelves?

a2tech 2y ago
I think people want to buy food and not starve. So neither I guess?

asveikau 2y ago

I don't know if they have inflation under control if, like TFA says, the locals tell him they drive to Chile to buy tires for less than half the price.

bradleyjg 2y ago

Inflation is down and the economy is doing better, but what's the point when poverty rates just skyrocketed to over 50% of the population [1]? Will it "trickle down", like it never did anywhere? This seems not true. The poor in countries with high gdp per capita are much better off than in countries with low gdp per capita. They are also better off than the poor were in prior times when those countries had lower gdp per capita. So some kind of trickling down must have happened. It might be more convenient for your sense of moral indignation if it were otherwise but facts are facts.

thrance 2y ago
This is some kind of mental gymnastics right there, I showed you poverty is rising and we're supposed to take it as meaning the people are richer for it? Show me a single example of a country drastically slashing public spending and its citizens living better afterwards.

nradov 2y ago

It's silly to claim that austerity is dangerous. Dangerous compared to what? Argentina had reached the logical end state of socialism and literally run out of other people's money to spend. There was no more room to raise taxes or borrow so austerity was the only remaining choice. Poverty statistics are meaningless. The numbers under previous administrations were heavily manipulated and don't provide a solid basis for comparison.

gus_massa 2y ago

It was at 40% when he started. A 10% increase is not good, but with the high inflation and other economical problems it was not clear that doing nothing would keep the poverty at 40%. The most recent reports say that it's now at 37%, it's probably correct, but take all reports with a grain of salt.