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Anyone remember when they were in school and adults tried to ban access to a popular website? I imagine this ban will go down exactly the same. Never underestim

by paxys 2y ago

Anyone remember when they were in school and adults tried to ban access to a popular website? I imagine this ban will go down exactly the same. Never underestimate a bored teenager's ability to bypass tech restrictions. Heck maybe this is what is needed to finally get a new generation out of the comforts of their tech walled garden and get their hands dirty.

rsanek 2y ago
how would this actually work? iOS is so dominant among US teens it's crazy, and the ability to sideload on that platform is nonexistent even to very technically savvy users.
- paxys 2y ago
  If the holding power of TikTok is strong enough (which it just might be) then you might actually see teens start to switch to Android.
  - whimsicalism 2y ago
    you won’t
    - sudosysgen 2y ago
      I don't think it would be as unlikely as you'd think. It's not impossible for a significant amount of people to get a cheap Android for these apps, after all iPhones are a result of iMessage.
      - kube-system 2y ago
        I think it's more likely that people would simply use the browser
      - ketzo 2y ago
        “Large portions of US teens will get second phones for one specific social media app” is an absolutely wild thing to predict seriously
        sudosysgen 2y ago
        Most US teens probably already have a second smartphone-like device, and large portions of them have purchased them purely for one specific social media app. I'm not saying it's more likely that not, but I am saying I wouldn't be surprised. If you replace "one specific social media app" with "iMessage", it has already happened.
        warner25 2y ago
        Not only this - my observation is that having a secret backup phone is not an unusual practice for kids who might get their primary phone taken away at times by parents, school officials, etc. Or if their primary phone is subject to technical parental controls.
        sudosysgen 2y ago
        Yes, anecdotally many of my friends (and I) had a backup phone. Second hand Android phones are so cheap that why not? By the time the app has to be reinstalled it may make sense, if sideloading on Android takes off.
        buildbot 2y ago
        Many of your high school aged friends had a secondary backup phone with a separate cellphone plan they pay for? That’s wild! I don’t think the average American high school student has two smart phones one of which is a secret from their major source of income (their parents).
        sudosysgen 2y ago
        No, why would they pay a cellphone plan for it? For most of them it was their or their siblings' previous phone, or their first phone they paid for themselves when they got a job, for others it's a cheap 60$ used phone they bought when their parents took theirs away at some point. That's like money for going out for lunch three times. There's no use for a cellphone plan, we would just use wifi or hotspot from their main phone.
  - iforgot22 2y ago
    I wonder how many Android users would actually sideload it. Same happened with Fortnite for a few years, and idk how many people did that.
    - sudosysgen 2y ago
      Fortnite never had even a hundredth of the smartphone screentime as Tiktok. I honestly think a lot (at least 5 million) Android users will sideload it once it comes to that.
      - iforgot22 2y ago
        Yeah but what % of them. Cause if it's only 1%, and 99% are going to some other app...
    - herbst 2y ago
      Or DJI. Side loading is so easy, we usually just call it "installing an app" there is no hacking or magic around that, works just like a .exe with some extra protections.
- greenavocado 2y ago
  I got popcorn ready to see how the masses of iOS users will react to the TikTok ban
Jean-Papoulos 2y ago
Don't underestimate the human ability to "settle for less" if said less requires less effort from them. There's a reason people pay for Netflix despite pirating proposing a higher level of quality ; Netflix is just easier. They will settle for the "easy" solution, which will be any one of the TikTok clones already existing (YT shorts, reels, whatever).
- kingstoned 2y ago
  Netflix is not easier, but marketed heavily and competition is censored in search results. Some random pirating streaming site is unknown and probably not even easily discoverable on google (you have to use yandex for that). I stick to pirating with adblockers because it is more convenient, there is a much bigger library of content and I don't have to share any personal info or pay for anything.
  - ketzo 2y ago
    If you know the words “yandex” and “adblocker” you are already 90th percentile ability to pirate content Netflix is absolutely easier to use than any form of pirating for the vast majority of their userbase. Everyone in this thread talking about how people will “just get a VPN” to use TikTok have zero concept of the technical abilities of TikTok’s user base
    - iforgot22 2y ago
      Even just having a PC hooked up to your TV in the first place is rare. People have locked-down smart TVs or STBs.
    - Invictus0 2y ago
      What's amazing about this comment chain is that it's totally wrong. Netflix is missing tons of content, like older movies, and tries to replace them with store-brand "originals" that everyone knows are garbage or only have a couple seasons before being cut. It lost its most popular product, The Office. Netflix literally cannot serve the product its users want the most, so the "easiness" of using netflix to get that product is 0.
tokioyoyo 2y ago
If it works on 75% of the population, that’s good enough. The other 25% will give up and move on as well, because people flock to social media where the others are.
lII1lIlI11ll 2y ago
Popular creators will leave, if they can't monetize their content anymore. Then, everyone else will follow the creators to whatever platform they will end up on.
kjkjadksj 2y ago
This ban does nothing about the mobile tick tok website. You don’t need to be a techie to use the browser on your cellphone. Yet it is a point of friction compared to an app with native notifications. And given the expectations of the average american tech user who has been coddled for the last decade into safe app store apps instead of the scary web, people are legitimately concerned.
- warner25 2y ago
  This part is unclear to me. I know the article says "app," but this is general news reporting, and the term "web app" for stuff in the browser is acceptable terminology anyway. It also says that opening the app will redirect people to a page with information about the ban, not to the main page of the website. Prior to this discussion, I thought a ban at the ISP or CDN level was part of the plan, so a VPN would be required to circumvent it. No? In any case, yeah, I'm not sure that "the average american tech user who has been coddled for the last decade" knows what a web browser is. I've observed some user behavior among family members that indicates a pretty bizarre mental model of how the Internet, web, and mobile applications work.
mrtksn 2y ago
AFAIK most teenagers use iPhones in US. What are they going to do? I'm Apple fanboy but this is the exact type of power they shouldn't have. Maybe you agree with the ban, I'm curious how would many people be feeling around year of 2028 after a few years of oligarchs consolidating their power and designing an obedient society through full control of the communications. Maybe you have ideas against H1B or maybe you use birth control, whatever your current opinions oh these are there's non-zero chance that you will be enforced into the correct opinions.
nashashmi 2y ago
That is not the biggest problem. The biggest problem is that if I have a tiktok channel, and the only way for people to see it is through a hack, then obviously my channel won't do that well. The bored teenager will learn ways to get tiktok. But the bored tiktokker won't learn ways to get the audience on tiktok
nonethewiser 2y ago
> Anyone remember when they were in school and adults tried to ban access to a popular website? Uhhh there are many websites that are banned in the USA. Otherwise working URLs that wont work in the USA. Mostly hostile state actor stuff.Iran, NK, etc. The fact that you don't know about it just says how effective it is. Sure, VPN. But (serious question, not rhetorical) is that going to get the app on your phone? And are you going to go to the trouble when the algorithm thinks you're eastern european? When the user base is smalelr?
staticman2 2y ago
The only reason social media is popular is Americans are too lazy to find stuff on the open web. They'd prefer the lazier option of the single web site deciding for them what to see and think about. There's zero chance most will put in effort to access TikTok.
- cellis 2y ago
  Exactly. There was a blog post a couple years ago called “The Tyranny of the marginal user” that states this principle succinctly. If it’s anymore effort than a thumb swipe, you’re losing users in a hurry.
culi 2y ago
All they're really banning is the app on the App or Play store basically. Anyone who still has tiktok on their phone can continue on and even make a new account. Anyone who cares enough can probably get a cracked APK too TikTok will probably die slowly not suddenly
perryizgr8 2y ago
The duopoly of app store and play store makes this kind of ban much more effective. India banned TikTok and nobody uses it over here now. It's simply too hard to download the app. Google won't let me download it even when I'm traveling abroad. Banning websites has been very hard, but today's closed marketplace ecosystems make banning apps much easier and people are not motivated to find loopholes.
egorfine 2y ago
When Ukraine banned russian social networks in 2015, all the teens had free FSB-sponsored VPNs running on their phones in no time. Like, almost 100% of them. In mere days. Now leaking not just the social network data to russia, but rather the entirety of their traffic. Let's see if US teenagers are as savvy and motivated.

by paxys 2y ago

rsanek 2y ago

how would this actually work? iOS is so dominant among US teens it's crazy, and the ability to sideload on that platform is nonexistent even to very technically savvy users.

paxys 2y ago
If the holding power of TikTok is strong enough (which it just might be) then you might actually see teens start to switch to Android.
- whimsicalism 2y ago
  you won’t
  - sudosysgen 2y ago
    I don't think it would be as unlikely as you'd think. It's not impossible for a significant amount of people to get a cheap Android for these apps, after all iPhones are a result of iMessage.
    - kube-system 2y ago
      I think it's more likely that people would simply use the browser
    - ketzo 2y ago
      “Large portions of US teens will get second phones for one specific social media app” is an absolutely wild thing to predict seriously
      - sudosysgen 2y ago
        Most US teens probably already have a second smartphone-like device, and large portions of them have purchased them purely for one specific social media app. I'm not saying it's more likely that not, but I am saying I wouldn't be surprised. If you replace "one specific social media app" with "iMessage", it has already happened.
        warner25 2y ago
        Not only this - my observation is that having a secret backup phone is not an unusual practice for kids who might get their primary phone taken away at times by parents, school officials, etc. Or if their primary phone is subject to technical parental controls.
        sudosysgen 2y ago
        Yes, anecdotally many of my friends (and I) had a backup phone. Second hand Android phones are so cheap that why not? By the time the app has to be reinstalled it may make sense, if sideloading on Android takes off.
        buildbot 2y ago
        Many of your high school aged friends had a secondary backup phone with a separate cellphone plan they pay for? That’s wild! I don’t think the average American high school student has two smart phones one of which is a secret from their major source of income (their parents).
        sudosysgen 2y ago
        No, why would they pay a cellphone plan for it? For most of them it was their or their siblings' previous phone, or their first phone they paid for themselves when they got a job, for others it's a cheap 60$ used phone they bought when their parents took theirs away at some point. That's like money for going out for lunch three times. There's no use for a cellphone plan, we would just use wifi or hotspot from their main phone.
- iforgot22 2y ago
  I wonder how many Android users would actually sideload it. Same happened with Fortnite for a few years, and idk how many people did that.
  - sudosysgen 2y ago
    Fortnite never had even a hundredth of the smartphone screentime as Tiktok. I honestly think a lot (at least 5 million) Android users will sideload it once it comes to that.
    - iforgot22 2y ago
      Yeah but what % of them. Cause if it's only 1%, and 99% are going to some other app...
  - herbst 2y ago
    Or DJI. Side loading is so easy, we usually just call it "installing an app" there is no hacking or magic around that, works just like a .exe with some extra protections.
greenavocado 2y ago
I got popcorn ready to see how the masses of iOS users will react to the TikTok ban

Jean-Papoulos 2y ago

Don't underestimate the human ability to "settle for less" if said less requires less effort from them. There's a reason people pay for Netflix despite pirating proposing a higher level of quality ; Netflix is just easier. They will settle for the "easy" solution, which will be any one of the TikTok clones already existing (YT shorts, reels, whatever).

kingstoned 2y ago
Netflix is not easier, but marketed heavily and competition is censored in search results. Some random pirating streaming site is unknown and probably not even easily discoverable on google (you have to use yandex for that). I stick to pirating with adblockers because it is more convenient, there is a much bigger library of content and I don't have to share any personal info or pay for anything.
- ketzo 2y ago
  If you know the words “yandex” and “adblocker” you are already 90th percentile ability to pirate content Netflix is absolutely easier to use than any form of pirating for the vast majority of their userbase. Everyone in this thread talking about how people will “just get a VPN” to use TikTok have zero concept of the technical abilities of TikTok’s user base
  - iforgot22 2y ago
    Even just having a PC hooked up to your TV in the first place is rare. People have locked-down smart TVs or STBs.
  - Invictus0 2y ago
    What's amazing about this comment chain is that it's totally wrong. Netflix is missing tons of content, like older movies, and tries to replace them with store-brand "originals" that everyone knows are garbage or only have a couple seasons before being cut. It lost its most popular product, The Office. Netflix literally cannot serve the product its users want the most, so the "easiness" of using netflix to get that product is 0.

tokioyoyo 2y ago

If it works on 75% of the population, that’s good enough. The other 25% will give up and move on as well, because people flock to social media where the others are.

lII1lIlI11ll 2y ago

Popular creators will leave, if they can't monetize their content anymore. Then, everyone else will follow the creators to whatever platform they will end up on.

kjkjadksj 2y ago

This ban does nothing about the mobile tick tok website. You don’t need to be a techie to use the browser on your cellphone. Yet it is a point of friction compared to an app with native notifications. And given the expectations of the average american tech user who has been coddled for the last decade into safe app store apps instead of the scary web, people are legitimately concerned.

warner25 2y ago
This part is unclear to me. I know the article says "app," but this is general news reporting, and the term "web app" for stuff in the browser is acceptable terminology anyway. It also says that opening the app will redirect people to a page with information about the ban, not to the main page of the website. Prior to this discussion, I thought a ban at the ISP or CDN level was part of the plan, so a VPN would be required to circumvent it. No? In any case, yeah, I'm not sure that "the average american tech user who has been coddled for the last decade" knows what a web browser is. I've observed some user behavior among family members that indicates a pretty bizarre mental model of how the Internet, web, and mobile applications work.

mrtksn 2y ago

AFAIK most teenagers use iPhones in US. What are they going to do? I'm Apple fanboy but this is the exact type of power they shouldn't have. Maybe you agree with the ban, I'm curious how would many people be feeling around year of 2028 after a few years of oligarchs consolidating their power and designing an obedient society through full control of the communications. Maybe you have ideas against H1B or maybe you use birth control, whatever your current opinions oh these are there's non-zero chance that you will be enforced into the correct opinions.

nashashmi 2y ago

That is not the biggest problem. The biggest problem is that if I have a tiktok channel, and the only way for people to see it is through a hack, then obviously my channel won't do that well. The bored teenager will learn ways to get tiktok. But the bored tiktokker won't learn ways to get the audience on tiktok

nonethewiser 2y ago

> Anyone remember when they were in school and adults tried to ban access to a popular website? Uhhh there are many websites that are banned in the USA. Otherwise working URLs that wont work in the USA. Mostly hostile state actor stuff.Iran, NK, etc. The fact that you don't know about it just says how effective it is. Sure, VPN. But (serious question, not rhetorical) is that going to get the app on your phone? And are you going to go to the trouble when the algorithm thinks you're eastern european? When the user base is smalelr?

staticman2 2y ago

The only reason social media is popular is Americans are too lazy to find stuff on the open web. They'd prefer the lazier option of the single web site deciding for them what to see and think about. There's zero chance most will put in effort to access TikTok.

cellis 2y ago
Exactly. There was a blog post a couple years ago called “The Tyranny of the marginal user” that states this principle succinctly. If it’s anymore effort than a thumb swipe, you’re losing users in a hurry.

culi 2y ago

All they're really banning is the app on the App or Play store basically. Anyone who still has tiktok on their phone can continue on and even make a new account. Anyone who cares enough can probably get a cracked APK too TikTok will probably die slowly not suddenly

perryizgr8 2y ago

The duopoly of app store and play store makes this kind of ban much more effective. India banned TikTok and nobody uses it over here now. It's simply too hard to download the app. Google won't let me download it even when I'm traveling abroad. Banning websites has been very hard, but today's closed marketplace ecosystems make banning apps much easier and people are not motivated to find loopholes.

egorfine 2y ago

When Ukraine banned russian social networks in 2015, all the teens had free FSB-sponsored VPNs running on their phones in no time. Like, almost 100% of them. In mere days. Now leaking not just the social network data to russia, but rather the entirety of their traffic. Let's see if US teenagers are as savvy and motivated.