9 ms·

Always useful to check past predictions from the author, e.g. So, what would happen to those 6 million barrels a day if the West stopped buying? Russian offici

by themgt 2y ago

Always useful to check past predictions from the author, e.g. So, what would happen to those 6 million barrels a day if the West stopped buying? Russian officials have threatened to send it “elsewhere,” while the media have focused on stories of stepped-up sales to China and India. But this threat of a redirection to Asia is a paper tiger. - Apr 26, 2022 https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/04/26/sanction-russian-oil-without-hurting-west-00027478 https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/04/26/sanction-r... Once sanctions are fully in place, Russia’s total crude and product exports (seaborne + land) could fall by as much as 3.3 to 3.9 million barrels a day from a baseline of 7.5 million barrels a day - Oct 19, 2022 https://navigatingrussia.substack.com/p/putins-looming-tanker-crisis https://navigatingrussia.substack.com/p/putins-looming-tanke... Lots of convincing details and analysis about how oil would be stranded in Russia or forced to sell to the west at a deep discount due to the "price cap" strategy. So what are Russian oil exports looking like 2 years later? Russia continues as a dominant oil exporter in 2023 despite global sanctions, maintaining a yearly export volume of around 7.5 million barrels per day (mb/d), as per analysis by the International Energy Agency. With EU/UK/US markets turning away, Russia has pivoted towards India, China, Türkiye, and countries in the Middle East, retaining its position as the world’s second largest oil exporter behind the US in 2023. https://qery.no/russian-oil-exports-pivots-towards-the-east/ https://qery.no/russian-oil-exports-pivots-towards-the-east/ According to the [IEA], Russian ... exports have remarkably steady around 7.5 million barrels per day (although there has been a big shift away from supplying the EU directly) https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/how-make-price-cap-russian-oil-most-effective https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/how-make-price-cap-russian-oi...

wiseowise 2y ago
At what price are they exporting it right now, remind me?
viraptor 2y ago
From your first link: "However, Russian oil export revenue saw a $4.2 billion decline due to G7 price caps and a fall in global oil prices."
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  To be fair, China’s oil demand tempered [1] and the IEA projected massive coming surpluses [2] in that time. [1] https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/chinas-slowing-oil-demand-growth-is-likely-to-persist-and-could-impact-markets/ https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/chinas-slowing-oil-dem... [2] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-demand-set-peak-by-2029-major-supply-glut-looms-iea-says-2024-06-12/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-demand-set-peak-...
rasz 2y ago
Predictions failed to take into account Bidens cowardice. Not only he didnt deliver lon range weapons in time, but intervened on behalf of russia when Ukraine build their own drones able to reach far away refineries. Even sanctions omitted main russian oil trading banks and shadow fleet until last week.
- throwaway48476 2y ago
  If you read the WSJ article Biden hasn't been running things since at least 2021. The fault for the Ukraine war is almost entirely Jake Sullivans. The American foreign policy establishment abandoned trumps deterrence policy which stopped putin invading in 2018.
  - mft_ 2y ago
    Could you share a link to the article, please?
    - throwaway48476 2y ago
      https://www.wsj.com/politics/biden-white-house-age-function-diminished-3906a839 https://www.wsj.com/politics/biden-white-house-age-function-...
  - Larrikin 2y ago
    Russia didn't invade until Trump left office because Trump was doing his best to weaken or destroy NATO.
    - throwaway48476 2y ago
      Putin didn't invade in 2018 because trump threatened to nuke Moscow if he did. https://kyivindependent.com/trump-suggested-he-would-have-bombed-moscow-for-invading-ukraine-wp-reports/ https://kyivindependent.com/trump-suggested-he-would-have-bo... He also talked about this conversation with Putin in the Joe Rogan interview. If Trump had weakened NATO it would have made an invasion more likely, not less.
gitdowndirty 2y ago
Why compare to 2023 data? there's 2024 data readily available. https://energyandcleanair.org/december-2024-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/ https://energyandcleanair.org/december-2024-monthly-analysis... 1.) there's no need to focus on barrels per day; fuel export revenue per day is more important. and from the link, we can see that it was around 1B EUR per day in 2022, and now it's around 600M EUR per day in Dec. 2024. Not great, but as we will see, it's mainly propped up by China. 2.) top 4 buyers of Russia fossil fuels in December 2024 are China, Turkey, India, and EU. China being top buyer is not surprising, given they are allied in the war - China is cutting off drones to Ukraine while supplying more to Russia. 3.) fossil fuel shipment departures from Russia has steadily declined from 80% in Jan 2022, to less than 20% in December 2024.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > fossil fuel shipment departures from Russia has steadily declined from 80% in Jan 2022, to less than 20% in December 2024 What does No. 3 mean?
  - gitdowndirty 2y ago
    It means official Russian shipment of oil has decreased, but what takes its place is the growth of ‘shadow’ tankers. And that reduces G7+ shipping industry’s leverage over Russia. It's in the article linked above. Most of the shadow tankers have helped Russia's oil trade stay alive https://apnews.com/article/russia-sanctions-shadow-fleet-oil-baltic-ukraine-76b66900d599d6e49692643674907fc0 https://apnews.com/article/russia-sanctions-shadow-fleet-oil..., mainly due to Chinese entities. But recently EU has put more sanctions on China for that https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-adopts-new-russia-sanctions-targeting-china-shadow-fleet-2024-12-16/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-adopts-new-russia-sa... The co-mingling of Russian and Chinese naval forces is also very evident recently, with the recent cutting of European underwater cable. Are Russia and China conducting undersea sabotage? | DW News https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ObgVV-HJtI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ObgVV-HJtI
    - 2y ago
roenxi 2y ago
There is a theme here - these predictions don't account for the existence of Asia. Chinese military planners have probably noticed that after it is done with Russia the US will be focusing on China. It is very favourable to them to fight the US in a proxy war rather than with Chinese troops. The resources the US is using to try to coerce Russia are probably the same that it will use against China, so if the US fails in Russia it may be exhausted of the ability to resist China. If I were China's (one of the world's largest creditors, I might note) leadership then there is a pretty good chance I would backstop Russia's debt in this case just to see how badly it hurts the US. Bonus points that then there is financial leverage over a resources superpower who's resources are needed for China's industry.
- UltraSane 2y ago
  What is your preferred out outcome for the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
  - throwaway23812 2y ago
    Why are you testing loyalties? What roenxi does is the same speculation that is done daily by the U.S. state department and the CIA. It is tiresome in 2025.
    - UltraSane 2y ago
      [flagged]
      - bdangubic 2y ago
        if it wasn’t for the russians you’d be writing this comment in german
        credit_guy 2y ago
        Very unlikely, for the simple reason that the US built the bomb. If Nazi Germany had not capitulated in May '45, it would have had one or several of its cities leveled by some nukes. The outcome of the war would have been the same, with the possible exception that Eastern Europe would not have fallen under Soviet influence.

by themgt 2y ago

wiseowise 2y ago

At what price are they exporting it right now, remind me?

viraptor 2y ago

From your first link: "However, Russian oil export revenue saw a $4.2 billion decline due to G7 price caps and a fall in global oil prices."

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
To be fair, China’s oil demand tempered [1] and the IEA projected massive coming surpluses [2] in that time. [1] https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/chinas-slowing-oil-demand-growth-is-likely-to-persist-and-could-impact-markets/ https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/chinas-slowing-oil-dem... [2] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-demand-set-peak-by-2029-major-supply-glut-looms-iea-says-2024-06-12/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-demand-set-peak-...

rasz 2y ago

Predictions failed to take into account Bidens cowardice. Not only he didnt deliver lon range weapons in time, but intervened on behalf of russia when Ukraine build their own drones able to reach far away refineries. Even sanctions omitted main russian oil trading banks and shadow fleet until last week.

throwaway48476 2y ago
If you read the WSJ article Biden hasn't been running things since at least 2021. The fault for the Ukraine war is almost entirely Jake Sullivans. The American foreign policy establishment abandoned trumps deterrence policy which stopped putin invading in 2018.
- mft_ 2y ago
  Could you share a link to the article, please?
  - throwaway48476 2y ago
    https://www.wsj.com/politics/biden-white-house-age-function-diminished-3906a839 https://www.wsj.com/politics/biden-white-house-age-function-...
- Larrikin 2y ago
  Russia didn't invade until Trump left office because Trump was doing his best to weaken or destroy NATO.
  - throwaway48476 2y ago
    Putin didn't invade in 2018 because trump threatened to nuke Moscow if he did. https://kyivindependent.com/trump-suggested-he-would-have-bombed-moscow-for-invading-ukraine-wp-reports/ https://kyivindependent.com/trump-suggested-he-would-have-bo... He also talked about this conversation with Putin in the Joe Rogan interview. If Trump had weakened NATO it would have made an invasion more likely, not less.

gitdowndirty 2y ago

Why compare to 2023 data? there's 2024 data readily available. https://energyandcleanair.org/december-2024-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/ https://energyandcleanair.org/december-2024-monthly-analysis... 1.) there's no need to focus on barrels per day; fuel export revenue per day is more important. and from the link, we can see that it was around 1B EUR per day in 2022, and now it's around 600M EUR per day in Dec. 2024. Not great, but as we will see, it's mainly propped up by China. 2.) top 4 buyers of Russia fossil fuels in December 2024 are China, Turkey, India, and EU. China being top buyer is not surprising, given they are allied in the war - China is cutting off drones to Ukraine while supplying more to Russia. 3.) fossil fuel shipment departures from Russia has steadily declined from 80% in Jan 2022, to less than 20% in December 2024.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> fossil fuel shipment departures from Russia has steadily declined from 80% in Jan 2022, to less than 20% in December 2024 What does No. 3 mean?
- gitdowndirty 2y ago
  It means official Russian shipment of oil has decreased, but what takes its place is the growth of ‘shadow’ tankers. And that reduces G7+ shipping industry’s leverage over Russia. It's in the article linked above. Most of the shadow tankers have helped Russia's oil trade stay alive https://apnews.com/article/russia-sanctions-shadow-fleet-oil-baltic-ukraine-76b66900d599d6e49692643674907fc0 https://apnews.com/article/russia-sanctions-shadow-fleet-oil..., mainly due to Chinese entities. But recently EU has put more sanctions on China for that https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-adopts-new-russia-sanctions-targeting-china-shadow-fleet-2024-12-16/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-adopts-new-russia-sa... The co-mingling of Russian and Chinese naval forces is also very evident recently, with the recent cutting of European underwater cable. Are Russia and China conducting undersea sabotage? | DW News https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ObgVV-HJtI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ObgVV-HJtI
  - 2y ago

roenxi 2y ago

There is a theme here - these predictions don't account for the existence of Asia. Chinese military planners have probably noticed that after it is done with Russia the US will be focusing on China. It is very favourable to them to fight the US in a proxy war rather than with Chinese troops. The resources the US is using to try to coerce Russia are probably the same that it will use against China, so if the US fails in Russia it may be exhausted of the ability to resist China. If I were China's (one of the world's largest creditors, I might note) leadership then there is a pretty good chance I would backstop Russia's debt in this case just to see how badly it hurts the US. Bonus points that then there is financial leverage over a resources superpower who's resources are needed for China's industry.

UltraSane 2y ago
What is your preferred out outcome for the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
- throwaway23812 2y ago
  Why are you testing loyalties? What roenxi does is the same speculation that is done daily by the U.S. state department and the CIA. It is tiresome in 2025.
  - UltraSane 2y ago
    [flagged]
    - bdangubic 2y ago
      if it wasn’t for the russians you’d be writing this comment in german
      - credit_guy 2y ago
        Very unlikely, for the simple reason that the US built the bomb. If Nazi Germany had not capitulated in May '45, it would have had one or several of its cities leveled by some nukes. The outcome of the war would have been the same, with the possible exception that Eastern Europe would not have fallen under Soviet influence.