5 ms·

> The US is the world’s sole military superpower. It spends more on its military than the ten next highest spending countries combined. Dubious claim. Military

by _1tem 2y ago

> The US is the world’s sole military superpower. It spends more on its military than the ten next highest spending countries combined. Dubious claim. Military power is not measured in “spending”. Manufacturing is in fact a basis for modern military power, as it was the basis for US military power in WW2. The fact that China can produce 10k+ precisely controlled drone swarms in massive quantities and produces more hypersonic missiles and ships casts doubt on this claim. Says the Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/12/weapons-production-munitions-shortfall-ukraine-democracy/680867/ https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/12/weapons...

echelon 2y ago
It won't take long for China to catch up. And in a hot war, they're the ones who can rapidly rebuild. Lots of reports say that Chinese military spending has exceeded our own if you account for their cheaper cost of labor and material goods. China also recently (just days ago) flew two new sixth gen fighters. The US has yet to demonstrate one. The tactical move for the West to counter is to move as much manufacturing as possible to other countries (Vietnam, India, Mexico) and hope that can put a dent in China's manufacturing flywheel. The Chinese consumer economy isn't robust enough to absorb all of the goods they manufacture (at least not yet), and without buyers the system would need to be scaled back. Even if China was 100% a friend, you wouldn't want one country with this much outsized control over manufacturing. In the future this will be better distributed.
- klipklop 2y ago
  The irony is in a world war China would likely take over the manufacturing plants the west built in places like Thailand and Vietnam to assist China in the war effort. Further bolstering their war time production.
  - ignoredposter 2y ago
    [dead]
  - coliveira 2y ago
    Let's not even talk about Taiwan, which will be the first target, and its plants will all produce chips for Chinese products.
    - wumeow 2y ago
      Those plants will 100% be destroyed/disabled in the event of an invasion.
      - seanmcdirmid 2y ago
        Those plants depend on a lot of imports for spare parts and raw materials, even if China took them over tomorrow somehow intact with with the people to operate them, they would be out of commission in a month or so.
      - okasaki 2y ago
        They say that but it doesn't really make sense to actually do it.
      - coliveira 2y ago
        Even if that is possible (unlikely), it will be a big blow to American power because Taiwan produces the best of semiconductor technology.
  - rat87 2y ago
    Invading Thailand and Vietnam would likely lead to a military alliance of them US, Japan, the Philippines, Australia and possibly South Korea. If they just want Taiwan at least for now it seems like a bad idea to get all the other countries to enter the war
  - aurareturn 2y ago
    >manufacturing plants the west built in places like Thailand and Vietnam What are these?
    - fragmede 2y ago
      Apple https://asiamattersforamerica.org/articles/apple-exploring-manufacturing-in-south-and-southeast-asia https://asiamattersforamerica.org/articles/apple-exploring-m...
      - aurareturn 2y ago
        Did Apple build these factories?
  - Mistletoe 2y ago
    Can we even talk about a world war like this in the nuclear era? Wouldn't we all just annihilate each other with nuclear weapons if we had a full fledged war?
    - marcosdumay 2y ago
      The more time Russia spends in Ukraine, the more evidence we get that no, we won't just annihilate each other. We will probably do something more complex.
- coliveira 2y ago
  > Even if China was 100% a friend, you wouldn't want one country with this much outsized control over manufacturing It's not up to the US to decide this. China is the largest car market. It is also the largest car producing country. It is the largest manufacturing country. It also has the largest number of consumers in any country, and this market is still growing. It has the largest number of engineers. The numbers play in China's favor.
  - pm90 2y ago
    Certainly. The reality of the political situation though is that China is an authoritarian country ruled by the PRC, increasingly acting more like a dictatorship. While China’s economy, society and people have 100% the right to grow as much as they would like, those of us living in (sonewhat) liberal democracies would still want to contain the power of the PRC (and the cult of Xi Jinping).
    - _kava 2y ago
      > liberal democracies would still want to contain the power of the PRC (and the cult of Xi Jinping) I am not Chinese but I still find this comment hilariously offensive and tone-deaf. I can say almost without a doubt that the US has a "tremendous" issue with cult-of-personality right now. But I don't see Chinese or other countries attacking or trying to "contain" this. The US is still treated as a nation, unified in its people and leaders, by even its adversaries. But when Americans deal with other countries, there is a tendency to say things to the effect of: "the people are fine, it is the X that must be suppressed", ignoring that this X is inherently or directly connected to people of this nation.
      - jhanschoo 2y ago
        Your comment immediately reminded of this Reuters story yesterday: "Supporters of South Korea's Yoon adopt 'Stop the Steal', hope Trump will help" https://www.reuters.com/world/supporters-south-koreas-yoon-adopt-stop-steal-hope-trump-will-help-2025-01-03/ https://www.reuters.com/world/supporters-south-koreas-yoon-a...
      - 2y ago
- jandrewrogers 2y ago
  > China also recently (just days ago) flew two new sixth gen fighters. China doesn’t really have a 5th generation fighter yet, it is more a roadmap item than a finished product. There is zero evidence they have 6th generation systems. These terms have meaning. The US has been flying 6th generation prototypes for years, they just don’t post photographs. The US has been flying production 5th generation fighters for 20 years. They have a long lead and it isn’t like they stopped development. Also, appearances are largely immaterial to being classified as 5th or 6th generation. Most of the relevant properties for classification are not casually observable.
wakawaka28 2y ago
Indeed, we spend more than anyone else but also get less for our money than anyone else. It would likely be an underestimate to say that our gear and labor costs double that of any of our competition.
- randomname93857 2y ago
  labor cost contributes to higher prices, but why we always ignore corporate America and middlemen contributions to price gauging?
  - wakawaka28 2y ago
    Some middlemen are critical. I used to be more skeptical of "mere merchants" but they often take significant risks to supply us with things we need at exactly the time we need them and not a moment before. They provide a service to you by efficiently getting products into your hands, and they provide a service to the producers by handling all the logistics of distribution. Some middlemen don't add significant value, such as drop shippers (IMO). But even they might be seen as providing some value, such as making it more convenient for you to buy and assuming risks on your behalf. People don't ever ignore corporate America's actual price gouging. I think they are sometimes conditioned to see price gouging where there is none. Domestic costs are very high, and foreign costs are low (perhaps even suspiciously low; our competition is willing to operate at a loss to put us out of business). Don't get me wrong, it would be awesome if there was some obvious price gouging at work that could be cut to solve all our problems. But it is usually just market forces that drive prices high.
buckle8017 2y ago
[flagged]
- csomar 2y ago
  It's personal/relative, but I'd consider both the Korean and Vietnamese wars to be China's proxy war after their CCP war with the Kuomintang. They did pretty well on well (Vietnam) and preserved the status quo on the other (Korea).
- janalsncm 2y ago
  Even if that were true, it would only be an interesting bit of trivia rather than a fact with predictive power applicable to the present. The article discusses the unprecedented rise of their manufacturing capabilities, currently unmatched. It’s not clear how information about preindustrial China would be applicable.
- throwaway2202 2y ago
  Not true. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_history_of_the_Tang_dynasty https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_history_of_the_Tang... Although china does not seem to try to get in wars historically. Conflicts between for example middle east and china over recorded history are not that many.
- barrenko 2y ago
  If you get big enough, you don't have to fight.
- renewiltord 2y ago
  [flagged]
- curiousgal 2y ago
  Did the U.S.? Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq...
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

by _1tem 2y ago

echelon 2y ago

It won't take long for China to catch up. And in a hot war, they're the ones who can rapidly rebuild. Lots of reports say that Chinese military spending has exceeded our own if you account for their cheaper cost of labor and material goods. China also recently (just days ago) flew two new sixth gen fighters. The US has yet to demonstrate one. The tactical move for the West to counter is to move as much manufacturing as possible to other countries (Vietnam, India, Mexico) and hope that can put a dent in China's manufacturing flywheel. The Chinese consumer economy isn't robust enough to absorb all of the goods they manufacture (at least not yet), and without buyers the system would need to be scaled back. Even if China was 100% a friend, you wouldn't want one country with this much outsized control over manufacturing. In the future this will be better distributed.

klipklop 2y ago
The irony is in a world war China would likely take over the manufacturing plants the west built in places like Thailand and Vietnam to assist China in the war effort. Further bolstering their war time production.
- ignoredposter 2y ago
  [dead]
- coliveira 2y ago
  Let's not even talk about Taiwan, which will be the first target, and its plants will all produce chips for Chinese products.
  - wumeow 2y ago
    Those plants will 100% be destroyed/disabled in the event of an invasion.
    - seanmcdirmid 2y ago
      Those plants depend on a lot of imports for spare parts and raw materials, even if China took them over tomorrow somehow intact with with the people to operate them, they would be out of commission in a month or so.
    - okasaki 2y ago
      They say that but it doesn't really make sense to actually do it.
    - coliveira 2y ago
      Even if that is possible (unlikely), it will be a big blow to American power because Taiwan produces the best of semiconductor technology.
- rat87 2y ago
  Invading Thailand and Vietnam would likely lead to a military alliance of them US, Japan, the Philippines, Australia and possibly South Korea. If they just want Taiwan at least for now it seems like a bad idea to get all the other countries to enter the war
- aurareturn 2y ago
  >manufacturing plants the west built in places like Thailand and Vietnam What are these?
  - fragmede 2y ago
    Apple https://asiamattersforamerica.org/articles/apple-exploring-manufacturing-in-south-and-southeast-asia https://asiamattersforamerica.org/articles/apple-exploring-m...
    - aurareturn 2y ago
      Did Apple build these factories?
- Mistletoe 2y ago
  Can we even talk about a world war like this in the nuclear era? Wouldn't we all just annihilate each other with nuclear weapons if we had a full fledged war?
  - marcosdumay 2y ago
    The more time Russia spends in Ukraine, the more evidence we get that no, we won't just annihilate each other. We will probably do something more complex.
coliveira 2y ago
> Even if China was 100% a friend, you wouldn't want one country with this much outsized control over manufacturing It's not up to the US to decide this. China is the largest car market. It is also the largest car producing country. It is the largest manufacturing country. It also has the largest number of consumers in any country, and this market is still growing. It has the largest number of engineers. The numbers play in China's favor.
- pm90 2y ago
  Certainly. The reality of the political situation though is that China is an authoritarian country ruled by the PRC, increasingly acting more like a dictatorship. While China’s economy, society and people have 100% the right to grow as much as they would like, those of us living in (sonewhat) liberal democracies would still want to contain the power of the PRC (and the cult of Xi Jinping).
  - _kava 2y ago
    > liberal democracies would still want to contain the power of the PRC (and the cult of Xi Jinping) I am not Chinese but I still find this comment hilariously offensive and tone-deaf. I can say almost without a doubt that the US has a "tremendous" issue with cult-of-personality right now. But I don't see Chinese or other countries attacking or trying to "contain" this. The US is still treated as a nation, unified in its people and leaders, by even its adversaries. But when Americans deal with other countries, there is a tendency to say things to the effect of: "the people are fine, it is the X that must be suppressed", ignoring that this X is inherently or directly connected to people of this nation.
    - jhanschoo 2y ago
      Your comment immediately reminded of this Reuters story yesterday: "Supporters of South Korea's Yoon adopt 'Stop the Steal', hope Trump will help" https://www.reuters.com/world/supporters-south-koreas-yoon-adopt-stop-steal-hope-trump-will-help-2025-01-03/ https://www.reuters.com/world/supporters-south-koreas-yoon-a...
    - 2y ago
jandrewrogers 2y ago
> China also recently (just days ago) flew two new sixth gen fighters. China doesn’t really have a 5th generation fighter yet, it is more a roadmap item than a finished product. There is zero evidence they have 6th generation systems. These terms have meaning. The US has been flying 6th generation prototypes for years, they just don’t post photographs. The US has been flying production 5th generation fighters for 20 years. They have a long lead and it isn’t like they stopped development. Also, appearances are largely immaterial to being classified as 5th or 6th generation. Most of the relevant properties for classification are not casually observable.

wakawaka28 2y ago

Indeed, we spend more than anyone else but also get less for our money than anyone else. It would likely be an underestimate to say that our gear and labor costs double that of any of our competition.

randomname93857 2y ago
labor cost contributes to higher prices, but why we always ignore corporate America and middlemen contributions to price gauging?
- wakawaka28 2y ago
  Some middlemen are critical. I used to be more skeptical of "mere merchants" but they often take significant risks to supply us with things we need at exactly the time we need them and not a moment before. They provide a service to you by efficiently getting products into your hands, and they provide a service to the producers by handling all the logistics of distribution. Some middlemen don't add significant value, such as drop shippers (IMO). But even they might be seen as providing some value, such as making it more convenient for you to buy and assuming risks on your behalf. People don't ever ignore corporate America's actual price gouging. I think they are sometimes conditioned to see price gouging where there is none. Domestic costs are very high, and foreign costs are low (perhaps even suspiciously low; our competition is willing to operate at a loss to put us out of business). Don't get me wrong, it would be awesome if there was some obvious price gouging at work that could be cut to solve all our problems. But it is usually just market forces that drive prices high.

buckle8017 2y ago

[flagged]

csomar 2y ago
It's personal/relative, but I'd consider both the Korean and Vietnamese wars to be China's proxy war after their CCP war with the Kuomintang. They did pretty well on well (Vietnam) and preserved the status quo on the other (Korea).
janalsncm 2y ago
Even if that were true, it would only be an interesting bit of trivia rather than a fact with predictive power applicable to the present. The article discusses the unprecedented rise of their manufacturing capabilities, currently unmatched. It’s not clear how information about preindustrial China would be applicable.
throwaway2202 2y ago
Not true. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_history_of_the_Tang_dynasty https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_history_of_the_Tang... Although china does not seem to try to get in wars historically. Conflicts between for example middle east and china over recorded history are not that many.
barrenko 2y ago
If you get big enough, you don't have to fight.
renewiltord 2y ago
[flagged]
curiousgal 2y ago
Did the U.S.? Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq...

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]