8 ms·

It's not surprising: everyone is using the same manufacturing equipment now, due to free markets and trade. So it's only about numbers of workers.

defrost 2y ago
Port capacity and equipment scale, willingness to engage in toxic processing, etc carry far more weight, IMHO. China has a lock on various electronic production streams by having a lock on most of the rare earth processing and dealing with the low level radioactive waste by products. One billion tonnes of raw iron ore per year flows from my state of Western Australia to China for steel production - the machinery, diggers, haul paks, massive trains, et al make that happen in a state with a population of only ~2.3 million or so with few of those in mining. 16x peak US iron ore production for steel with a workforce smaller than the US's at it's peak. China didn't just fall into peak manufacturing capacity by a happy accident of many workers, they (for better or worse) made long term plans and stuck at them - including the reduction in population growth known as the one child policy. Current Chinese pharma production is a truly bespoke behemoth - it has a massive capacity that can easily make small to order amounts, and again that's due to factors such as education and well automated pipelines.
- seanmcdirmid 2y ago
  > China didn't just fall into peak manufacturing capacity by a happy accident of many workers, they (for better or worse) made long term plans and stuck at them - including the reduction in poulation growth known as the one child policy. I don’t think China planned to intentionally fall off of a demographic cliff. But they are already planning for that cliff by making very aggressive investments in AI and automation. If you see how effective their plans from 10-20 years ago turned out today, wait another 10-20 years and…I hope we have some kind of a plan…it isn’t what Trump has in mind for sure. Ironically, Japan planned for the same cliff with aggressive investments in AI and automation in the 1980s, but the rise of China messed that up with cheap labor, and their AI play was misguided/probably too early.
- fakedang 2y ago
  I can't help but say that Australia is basically the stupidest country on the planet (at least amongst Western democracies, since one could say modern Russia is stupider, but that's a whole another cultural debate). It's like the degenerate alcoholic who's willing to prostitute their mother for a bar tab. A country so blessed with some of the most important natural resources, a country whose geography is synonymous with the word abundance. But nah, they'd rather sell themselves out to the biggest foreign bidder, even if they are from their biggest regional rivals. While Norway and the UAE enjoy the fruits of their resources through strong welfare systems enabled by a resource-driven economy a fraction of Australia's, Australia sold itself so hard its own citizens have to buy from foreign corpos.
  - defrost 2y ago
    > Australia is basically the stupidest country on the planet Too right. > It's like the degenerate alcoholic who's willing to prostitute their mother for a bar tab. Ahh, so you are Australian then. > even if they are from their biggest regional rivals. How is China a regional rival? Australia has koalas, China has Pandas. > While Norway and the UAE enjoy the fruits of their resources through strong welfare systems enabled by a resource-driven economy Australia also has welfare, high living standards, high life expectancy, good health, etc. > Australia sold itself so hard its own citizens have to buy from foreign corpos. Ahhh, so Norway and UAE have their own home built computers, TV's, and EV's, etc then? You have some points, but you're trying to edge lord a bit hard there mate.
    - fakedang 2y ago
      > Australia also has welfare, high living standards, high life expectancy, good health, etc. Tell me how affordable a home near the workplace is for most Australians? On the contrary, Norwegians and Emiratis get a huge housing subsidy for their first homes. They both use their oil revenues to push for sustainable energy sources at home. And the UAE is currently pulling over its weight in AI, funding a significant AI player, while also taking part in active space exploration. > Ahhh, so Norway and UAE have their own home built computers, TV's, and EV's, etc then? Building computers, EVs and TVs in this age when China controls the complete manufacturing chain is a bit stupid honestly. But they do have manufacturing bases on the things they actually excel at - Norway is a major player in manufacturing shipping and specialized O&G equipment, while the UAE has focused on aircraft parts manufacturing and defence manufacturing.

defrost 2y ago

Port capacity and equipment scale, willingness to engage in toxic processing, etc carry far more weight, IMHO. China has a lock on various electronic production streams by having a lock on most of the rare earth processing and dealing with the low level radioactive waste by products. One billion tonnes of raw iron ore per year flows from my state of Western Australia to China for steel production - the machinery, diggers, haul paks, massive trains, et al make that happen in a state with a population of only ~2.3 million or so with few of those in mining. 16x peak US iron ore production for steel with a workforce smaller than the US's at it's peak. China didn't just fall into peak manufacturing capacity by a happy accident of many workers, they (for better or worse) made long term plans and stuck at them - including the reduction in population growth known as the one child policy. Current Chinese pharma production is a truly bespoke behemoth - it has a massive capacity that can easily make small to order amounts, and again that's due to factors such as education and well automated pipelines.

seanmcdirmid 2y ago
> China didn't just fall into peak manufacturing capacity by a happy accident of many workers, they (for better or worse) made long term plans and stuck at them - including the reduction in poulation growth known as the one child policy. I don’t think China planned to intentionally fall off of a demographic cliff. But they are already planning for that cliff by making very aggressive investments in AI and automation. If you see how effective their plans from 10-20 years ago turned out today, wait another 10-20 years and…I hope we have some kind of a plan…it isn’t what Trump has in mind for sure. Ironically, Japan planned for the same cliff with aggressive investments in AI and automation in the 1980s, but the rise of China messed that up with cheap labor, and their AI play was misguided/probably too early.
fakedang 2y ago
I can't help but say that Australia is basically the stupidest country on the planet (at least amongst Western democracies, since one could say modern Russia is stupider, but that's a whole another cultural debate). It's like the degenerate alcoholic who's willing to prostitute their mother for a bar tab. A country so blessed with some of the most important natural resources, a country whose geography is synonymous with the word abundance. But nah, they'd rather sell themselves out to the biggest foreign bidder, even if they are from their biggest regional rivals. While Norway and the UAE enjoy the fruits of their resources through strong welfare systems enabled by a resource-driven economy a fraction of Australia's, Australia sold itself so hard its own citizens have to buy from foreign corpos.
- defrost 2y ago
  > Australia is basically the stupidest country on the planet Too right. > It's like the degenerate alcoholic who's willing to prostitute their mother for a bar tab. Ahh, so you are Australian then. > even if they are from their biggest regional rivals. How is China a regional rival? Australia has koalas, China has Pandas. > While Norway and the UAE enjoy the fruits of their resources through strong welfare systems enabled by a resource-driven economy Australia also has welfare, high living standards, high life expectancy, good health, etc. > Australia sold itself so hard its own citizens have to buy from foreign corpos. Ahhh, so Norway and UAE have their own home built computers, TV's, and EV's, etc then? You have some points, but you're trying to edge lord a bit hard there mate.
  - fakedang 2y ago
    > Australia also has welfare, high living standards, high life expectancy, good health, etc. Tell me how affordable a home near the workplace is for most Australians? On the contrary, Norwegians and Emiratis get a huge housing subsidy for their first homes. They both use their oil revenues to push for sustainable energy sources at home. And the UAE is currently pulling over its weight in AI, funding a significant AI player, while also taking part in active space exploration. > Ahhh, so Norway and UAE have their own home built computers, TV's, and EV's, etc then? Building computers, EVs and TVs in this age when China controls the complete manufacturing chain is a bit stupid honestly. But they do have manufacturing bases on the things they actually excel at - Norway is a major player in manufacturing shipping and specialized O&G equipment, while the UAE has focused on aircraft parts manufacturing and defence manufacturing.