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It’s about demand isn’t it? TSMC have red hot demand, it’s not hard to understand their urgency in setting up new fabs, wherever they may be. Intel don’t have t

It’s about demand isn’t it? TSMC have red hot demand, it’s not hard to understand their urgency in setting up new fabs, wherever they may be. Intel don’t have the same incentive - their incentive is to take the money (because, why wouldn’t you), build newer fabs and hope for some breakthrough in demand. The urgency is not there: being complete before there is demand could be detrimental

ksec 2y ago
>It’s about demand isn’t it? Yes. There used to be a saying the most expensive Fab ( or factory ) isn't the most advance Fab, but an empty Fab. You cant built without first ensuring you can fill it, you cant fill it without first ensuring you can deliver. And Intel has failed to deliver twice with their custom foundry. Both times with Nokia and Ericsson. How the two fall for it twice is completely beyond me, but then Intel are known to have very good sales teams. Intel will need another Apple moment that has huge demand, little margin, but willing to pay up front. On the assumption that Intel is even price competitive. The Apple modem may be it. But given the current situation with Intel as they want to lower Capital spending I am not even sure if betting on Intel is a risk Apple is willing to make. Comparing to a stable consistent relationship with TSMC.
- donavanm 2y ago
  > On the assumption that Intel is even price competitive. The Apple modem may be it. Which is super interesting/ironic with the entire reason for an “apple modem” is due to Intels failure there a decade ago. Bonus irony for the subsequent acquisition.
  - zitterbewegung 2y ago
    Intel wasn't able to ship a competitive modem to Qualcomm and the whole point of the acquisition was to get rid of Qualcomm and even apple hasn't gotten a shipping version of a 5g modem for six years since the first intel modem started in 2018. This was really to vertically integrate the modem in all of the relevant Apple Silicon devices and it keeps going on...
- causality0 2y ago
  At this point I'm starting to wonder if Intel's corporate strategy is "pray all of the fabs in Taiwan are destroyed during a Chinese invasion".
  - kayewiggin 2y ago
    Then Intel is going to have to wait for a very long time. At best, China is currently in a scenario similar to Japan's lost decade of 30 years or US's Great Depression. At worst, China's current deflation + massive debt seems eerily similar to Weimar Germany's early internal devaluation. China is pretty fucked.
    - causality0 2y ago
      Peter Zeihan is very witty but he's been saying the Chinese are three years away from cannibalizing each other for food for about ten years now.
    - philipov 2y ago
      It's unwise to forget that the thing that pulled both the US and Germany out of the Depression was war.
      - kayewiggin 2y ago
        US fully recovered from Great Depression in 1939, 2 years before entering ww2. Weimar Germany started in 1918 and ended in 1933 at the beginning of nazi Germany, 15 years later. You can't start a war when you are truly broke, much like China is today. And China is aging super fast, unlike Germany or US during the 30s.
        mistrial9 2y ago
        > US fully recovered from Great Depression in 1939 this is disinformation. source: relatives that were alive in California and other states at that time
        2y ago
- Hikikomori 2y ago
  IIRC you can add LG to the list of intel failures.
amelius 2y ago
I don't get it. If TSMC has demand, then so could Intel. What am I missing?
- jazzyjackson 2y ago
  TSMC makes nvidia GPUs and iPhone chips among other things, intel doesn't
  - ninkendo 2y ago
    There was some discussion awhile back about Intel potentially fabbing ARM chips (or any other custom non-x86 chip) as a viable business in the future. I don’t know how serious they were but it sounded plausible when you think about how important it is to have an American leading edge fab, independent of the market future of the x86 ISA. Basically what would it take for Intel to still have Apple as a customer even if Apple made their own ARM designs…
- dehugger 2y ago
  The missing bit is "TSMC makes better chips than Intel" and thus they have higher demand.
  - amelius 2y ago
    Yes, but then there should be a higher level of urgency?
    - dehugger 2y ago
      Urgency with what? You asked why TSMC has higher demand then Intel...
      - amelius 2y ago
        No, you have to read more of the thread to understand why I asked it. > TSMC have red hot demand, it’s not hard to understand their urgency in setting up new fabs, wherever they may be. Intel don’t have the same incentive (...)

ksec 2y ago

>It’s about demand isn’t it? Yes. There used to be a saying the most expensive Fab ( or factory ) isn't the most advance Fab, but an empty Fab. You cant built without first ensuring you can fill it, you cant fill it without first ensuring you can deliver. And Intel has failed to deliver twice with their custom foundry. Both times with Nokia and Ericsson. How the two fall for it twice is completely beyond me, but then Intel are known to have very good sales teams. Intel will need another Apple moment that has huge demand, little margin, but willing to pay up front. On the assumption that Intel is even price competitive. The Apple modem may be it. But given the current situation with Intel as they want to lower Capital spending I am not even sure if betting on Intel is a risk Apple is willing to make. Comparing to a stable consistent relationship with TSMC.

donavanm 2y ago
> On the assumption that Intel is even price competitive. The Apple modem may be it. Which is super interesting/ironic with the entire reason for an “apple modem” is due to Intels failure there a decade ago. Bonus irony for the subsequent acquisition.
- zitterbewegung 2y ago
  Intel wasn't able to ship a competitive modem to Qualcomm and the whole point of the acquisition was to get rid of Qualcomm and even apple hasn't gotten a shipping version of a 5g modem for six years since the first intel modem started in 2018. This was really to vertically integrate the modem in all of the relevant Apple Silicon devices and it keeps going on...
causality0 2y ago
At this point I'm starting to wonder if Intel's corporate strategy is "pray all of the fabs in Taiwan are destroyed during a Chinese invasion".
- kayewiggin 2y ago
  Then Intel is going to have to wait for a very long time. At best, China is currently in a scenario similar to Japan's lost decade of 30 years or US's Great Depression. At worst, China's current deflation + massive debt seems eerily similar to Weimar Germany's early internal devaluation. China is pretty fucked.
  - causality0 2y ago
    Peter Zeihan is very witty but he's been saying the Chinese are three years away from cannibalizing each other for food for about ten years now.
  - philipov 2y ago
    It's unwise to forget that the thing that pulled both the US and Germany out of the Depression was war.
    - kayewiggin 2y ago
      US fully recovered from Great Depression in 1939, 2 years before entering ww2. Weimar Germany started in 1918 and ended in 1933 at the beginning of nazi Germany, 15 years later. You can't start a war when you are truly broke, much like China is today. And China is aging super fast, unlike Germany or US during the 30s.
      - mistrial9 2y ago
        > US fully recovered from Great Depression in 1939 this is disinformation. source: relatives that were alive in California and other states at that time
      - 2y ago
Hikikomori 2y ago
IIRC you can add LG to the list of intel failures.

amelius 2y ago

I don't get it. If TSMC has demand, then so could Intel. What am I missing?

jazzyjackson 2y ago
TSMC makes nvidia GPUs and iPhone chips among other things, intel doesn't
- ninkendo 2y ago
  There was some discussion awhile back about Intel potentially fabbing ARM chips (or any other custom non-x86 chip) as a viable business in the future. I don’t know how serious they were but it sounded plausible when you think about how important it is to have an American leading edge fab, independent of the market future of the x86 ISA. Basically what would it take for Intel to still have Apple as a customer even if Apple made their own ARM designs…
dehugger 2y ago
The missing bit is "TSMC makes better chips than Intel" and thus they have higher demand.
- amelius 2y ago
  Yes, but then there should be a higher level of urgency?
  - dehugger 2y ago
    Urgency with what? You asked why TSMC has higher demand then Intel...
    - amelius 2y ago
      No, you have to read more of the thread to understand why I asked it. > TSMC have red hot demand, it’s not hard to understand their urgency in setting up new fabs, wherever they may be. Intel don’t have the same incentive (...)