6 ms·

A transformer supply crisis bottlenecks energy projects

115 points by TaurenHunter 2y ago

kwerk 2y ago
And an energy shortage bottlenecking Transformer projects
ggm 2y ago
Everybody wants them. They are semi bespoke. Ramping up supply chain takes time. Something novel we want to sell you in ieee space.
- justahuman74 2y ago
  > They are semi bespoke. Thats interesting, surely there are millions of them deployed out there. Was there something that prevented standardization onto few types/sizes?
  - ggm 2y ago
    It's said in the article, I think it's because the exact boundaries of operation depend so strongly on local conditions the specification space has too many parameters in variable space: easier to make them for the situation to spec than build to a standard? Down at the domestic supply level I am sure they buy thousands of mostly identical units.
    - crote 2y ago
      Sure, but how much of that is strictly required? It makes sense that transformers have traditionally been completely custom designs, but does something like cable orientation really matter all that much when you've got dozens of projects being delayed by many months? Why not modify the substation design to fit the transformers which are available?
  - Mountain_Skies 2y ago
    Over my lifetime they seem to have both shrunk and become much more reliable so someone is iterating and improving the designs, just not at a high speed we are accustomed to in the IT world. My dream for the power grid would be for every home connected to it to have at minimum a battery that could handle two hours of peak load. The operation and maintenance of the grid would be so much easier if parts of it could be disconnected for an hour or two when necessary. The end users wouldn't need to know a disruption even happened. Even better would be capacity for two days, but even just two hours should get us several sigma of improvement.
    - mschuster91 2y ago
      > Over my lifetime they seem to have both shrunk and become much more reliable so someone is iterating and improving the designs, just not at a high speed we are accustomed to in the IT world. The reliability is one thing, that got improved mostly by better monitoring (you can spot early signs of degradation by analyzing the oil for residues indicating arc discharge), but the size is in the end fundamentally dominated by physics - you need a minimum gauge of copper wire to transfer a given current. The only way to improve the size of transformers will be the widespread availability of room-temperature superconducting material, which is as of now not even theoretically predicted, much less proven in practice.
      - marcosdumay 2y ago
        > The only way to improve the size of transformers will be the widespread availability of room-temperature superconducting material I'm not sure this is enough. You certainly do not need it to be room temperature, but the current density of your superconductor is critically relevant, and it tends to not be great.
- thephyber 2y ago
  The “Ramping up the supply chain takes time” has an interesting back story: https://electronics.stackexchange.com/questions/563786/why-does-it-take-such-a-long-time-to-build-a-new-power-grid-transformer https://electronics.stackexchange.com/questions/563786/why-d...
- Gud 2y ago
  There are a few standardised sizes. I don’t do transformer installations (anymore), but generally only energy producers use bespoke transformers.
  - ggm 2y ago
    That's what the ieee say is in short supply
    - Gud 2y ago
      I work for a high voltage switchgear manufacturer. Everything is in short supply, transformers, cables, switchgear…
billfor 2y ago
Can you imagine what would happen if we had another carrington effect (which we will eventually) and were suddenly faced with having to build thousands of transformers....
- someothherguyy 2y ago
  > carrington effect Event* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event
- mschuster91 2y ago
  Or on a smaller scale, hybrid and open warfare, domestic terrorism [1] or just rednecks shooting at power lines [2] and transformers [3] already cause a lot of damage to power infrastructure. An AR-15 or Kalashnikov is enough to cause serious damage, a hit squad or two can take out unprotected infrastructure on a wide scale in a very short time - and most substations consist of barely more than a fence and barbed wire to deter wildlife from entering, not a concrete wall that would thwart attackers. [1] https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2014/01/military_style.html https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2014/01/military_styl... [2] https://newtoncountytimes.com/stories/shooting-power-and-fiber-lines-is-illegal,148256 https://newtoncountytimes.com/stories/shooting-power-and-fib... [3] https://www.sasktoday.ca/southeast/local-news/carlyle-rcmp-seeks-information-on-vandalism-to-transformers-7985132 https://www.sasktoday.ca/southeast/local-news/carlyle-rcmp-s...
  - csunbird 2y ago
    One would expect the electrocution risk would be enough to deter the human attackers.
    - lsaferite 2y ago
      A sniper team with an anti-material rifle could wreak havoc very effectively and never even be noticed while doing so.
    - mschuster91 2y ago
ttoinou 2y ago
They’re now reworking transformer designs to use different or less sought-after materials, to last longer, to include power electronics that allow the easy conversion between AC and DC, and to be more standardized and less customized than the transformers of today. Or maybe they need to work out a new design that is not patent encumbered yet ?
- nine_k 2y ago
  They mention a bunch of new designs: hollow cores, high-temperature insulation, adjustable impedance. It's sort of hard to replace a grid-frequency transformer (mammoth-sized because of the low frequency) with something like a switched power supply that uses much higher frequencies and thus much smaller coils. The semiconductors required for that barely handle a couple of kV, while the grid uses tens and hundreds of kV. But a crisis like this is a good thing for the progress of technology. Demand by far outstrips supply, there's obviously good money to be made. Many new approaches are going to be researched and tried.
  - namibj 2y ago
    We know well how to, and we have ways that allow for making very efficient DC/DC converters for the voltage levels that the grid utilizes.
    - immibis 2y ago
      They're quite expensive and big. Building sized. Sure these transformers are technically also building sizes, but it's a garden shed, not a warehouse.
- catlifeonmars 2y ago
  Or maybe the power grid is the problem.
trhway 2y ago
Russia specifically targets transformers in Ukraine. 3 years of bombing gets to cause a supply shortage in such a slow capex heavy industry.
- TechDebtDevin 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - trhway 2y ago
    the scale is vastly different. As far as i see Israel hit 6 or something at the power station, and after that 4 were delivered as replacement. Ukraine related news mention things like this https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/05/22/kharkiv-receives-us-transformers-amid-energy-crisis-says-ambassadors/ https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/05/22/kharkiv-receives-us-t... "The US provided almost 60 transformers to the energy distribution operator in Kharkiv, enabling urgent repairs to the city's power grid damaged by Russian..." Ukraine's power infrastructure not only was powering the country it was also exporting energy to Europe. It is a multi-redundant piece of USSR energy infrastructure, a lot of equipment which Russia has been methodically destroying for all those years of war, and Ukraine with the help of West - restoring. Huge churn of equipment.
  - marcosdumay 2y ago
    As the US targeted them in Yugoslavia... I dunno. This one seems to be a universal war casualty.
    - selimthegrim 2y ago
      And Iraq? Or just the switchgear sets?
      - marcosdumay 2y ago
        I don't know about Iraq. I don't even know what event of the US attacking Iraq you are talking about. But maybe. Anyway, they made a lot of noise about how there were only targeting the electricity infrastructure in Yugoslavia, and didn't disclose much about any other place.
WorkerBee28474 2y ago
> An LPT can weigh as much as two blue whales I'm sure glad they used such a commonly understood unit of weight. It really helps me understand the size of the item better than pounds or tons.
- jimmaswell 2y ago
  Gave me a much better frame of reference than some huge scalar, personally.
- teruakohatu 2y ago
  Pounds is so imperial. I prefer measuring using Loaves of Bread (lb) to communicate mass. 2 * bw ≈ 630,000 lb
  - teddyh 2y ago
    Unleavened bread?
- dagss 2y ago
  As a metric European, blue whales give me a lot more intuition to work on than pounds. Tons would be nice though.
  - mgiampapa 2y ago
    I'm sorry, only long tons or short tons. Why have one unit when you can have two? In metric it's a Tonne.
    - Symbiote 2y ago
      In many European languages the spelling like "ton" is used for 1000kg. It's primarily in English where there's still a need to distinguish between metric tons and older units.
      - eecc 2y ago
cma 2y ago
So Transformers caused a shortage of transformers.
- nine_k 2y ago
  Only partly. Also sun, cars, and wars.
  - 8bitsrule 2y ago
    Not to mention AI and coin-mining of course.
    - dogboat 2y ago
      Transformers is the AI
cavisne 2y ago
This seems like exactly the sort of problem Elon is good at solving (or more accurately incentivizing engineers to solve). xAIs cluster buildout (powered by generators while the grid was being ramped up) would’ve had a lot of lessons.
- SideQuark 2y ago
  It seems like the kind of thing Musk would say he’d do but never deliver. https://elonmusk.today/ https://elonmusk.today/
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - Mountain_Skies 2y ago
    Time blindness is a well known common symptom of autism, which he has openly disclosed having. Anyone dealing with time estimates from someone with autism and time blindness should simply adjust for this known attribute of their being instead of relying on or attacking them for their disability.
    - thephyber 2y ago
      Naw. He doesn’t get a pass when it comes to time-related criticism of him if he doesn’t also afford the same pass to his employees and the regulators of his businesses.
    - someothherguyy 2y ago
      > It remains unclear if autism is characterized by a fundamental time perception impairment. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6852160/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6852160/ Some other reviews state there is evidence, but only on studies for very small time scales. Not saying this definitively states anything, but it is interesting.
  - jeroenhd 2y ago
    That website needs an update. He did deliver a pick-up truck (though that was neither a better truck than the F150, nor a better sports car than a standard 911, like he promised).
Animats 2y ago
The business is tiny in terms of number of units built, and they're basically hand-built. Some of the interior components are laminated wood. The number of people with the skills to make these things is small, and, since they're expected to last 30 to 50 years, nobody wants to buy from a startup. You want to be able to get replacement parts in 2050. Plus, General Electric broke up, and GE Vernova now has the transformer business.[1] [1] https://www.gevernova.com/grid-solutions/hvmv_equipment/catalog/power_transformers.htm#Ov2 https://www.gevernova.com/grid-solutions/hvmv_equipment/cata...
- quickthrowman 2y ago
  > Plus, General Electric broke up, and GE Vernova now has the transformer business. Slight clarification, GE Vernova has the (most of) the medium and high voltage transformer business. ABB bought GE Industrial Solutions which includes all of GE’s low-voltage (under 1000 volts) transformers (plus all other sub-1000 volt GE switchgear, breakers, panel boards, etc) plus some 5-15kV medium voltage lines.
  - Animats 2y ago
    Right, but it's the big semi-custom stuff that's hard to get. Distribution transformers (the things on poles) are a commodity. Part of the problem with generator step-up transformers is that the input side generator specs are determined by the generator, and the output side transmission grid specs are determined by the grid operator. The transformer is the component stuck with the job of making those compatible. That's the kind of problem which leads to N x M variants being needed.
Hilift 2y ago
"Ibrahima Ndiaye, a senior principal engineer at GEVAR who led the project, says the breakthrough was figuring out how to give a conventional transformer the capability to change its impedance (that is, its resistance to electricity flow) without changing any other feature in the transformer, including its voltage ratio. "Impedance and voltage ratio are both critical features of a transformer that ordinarily must be tailored to each use case. If you can tweak both factors independently, then you can modify the transformer for various uses. But altering the impedance without also changing the transformer’s voltage ratio initially seemed impossible, Ndiaye says. "The solution turned out to be surprisingly straightforward. The engineer added the same amount of windings to both sides of the transformer’s core, but in opposite directions, cancelling out the voltage increase and thereby allowing him to tweak one factor without automatically changing the other. “There is no [other] transformer in the world that has a capability of that today,” Ndiaye says."
- mycall 2y ago
  It is hard to believe that no other transformer has used opposite directions in the past. It is such a big oversight.
  - svilen_dobrev 2y ago
    i am not much into transformers, but isn't so-called zero-flux thing something similar? https://electronics.stackexchange.com/questions/511880/measure-dc-current-with-current-transformer https://electronics.stackexchange.com/questions/511880/measu...
- magicalhippo 2y ago
  From what I can gather, this[1] is the research paper behind the described transformer, however it's not open access. However there is an available technical report here[2] with details. The design is based on an autotransformer[3], where the primary and secondary windings are connected in series, so effectively one coil. Section 2 in the technical report has details on how the flexible impedance windings. It's not as trivial as just adding some more windings, though perhaps in practice that's what it looks like. [1]: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9959916 https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9959916 [2]: https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1527031 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1527031 [3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autotransformer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autotransformer
alenrozac 2y ago
EM said in one of the podcasts that chip shortage -> transformer shortage -> energy shortage. That was about a year ago or so. Asked Chat to make me a portfolio to target the transformer market. Have to say, it works.
bilsbie 2y ago
This would be a cool yc startup.
Gravityloss 2y ago
Semiconductors have advanced a lot in the last few decades so they also enable different transformers and transmission lines. Very low level materials science. China already has megavolt level UHVDC deployed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultra-high-voltage_electricity_transmission_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultra-high-voltage_electricity...
ocschwar 2y ago
Even before the crisis you had lead times of over a year.
Workaccount2 2y ago
This is the kind of thing that I sort of have the knowledge to jump into (I do power electronics by day) but have no will to actually pursue since hardware manufacturing in the US is very expensive to start, very hard to develop, very punishing to maintain, and very low margins even when you accomplish all that. Trump talks a ton about "Bringing back manufacturing", but the dude is clearly using it purely for political points. Anyone in the industry knows the supply chains here are weak as hell, and anyone young with a brain is going to SWE or Finance. The industry today is held up by grey beards past retirement sticking with it because no else can do it.
- bluGill 2y ago
  Don't be so pessimistic. There is a lot of manufacturing and supply chains in the US. However US manufacturing needs to be highly automated to compete and so it only make sense for products that are easy to manufacturing in a highly automated way. This implies high volumes, or something else that isn't always easy. There are a lot of grey beards in industry, but that means there is room for a young person to learn what they know (they do know a lot of great things!) and then take over as their retire/die.
dgroshev 2y ago
It's unfortunate that the article doesn't point at the most obvious cause of the shortage: Russia deliberately and systematically destroying Ukrainian power grid for three years, and Western unwillingness to put a stop to that. The scale of necessary repairs is mind boggling. Here's what just Europe alone shipped to Ukraine to repair the damage [1]: - 8 827 power generators… with an estimated 1 258 590 kVA in power generators - 3 597 transformers + 5 autotransformers - 3 364 generators and 14 transformers from the rescEU stockpile Then there is US support: - 18 autotransformers "with more on the way" [2] - 59 transformers just for Kharkiv [3] …and that is just scratching the surface and is barely enough to keep the lights on, with Ukrainians installing private batteries and generation up and down the country. Just last night Russia launched another massive attack at the energy infrastructure [4]. More expensive, rare, long lead time transformers getting blown up, and the raid doesn't even get any attention in the West. [1]: https://erccportal.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ECHO-Products/Maps#/maps/5108 https://erccportal.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ECHO-Products/Maps#/maps... [2]: https://x.com/USAmbKyiv/status/1819094722754797600 https://x.com/USAmbKyiv/status/1819094722754797600 [3]: https://x.com/USAmbKyiv/status/1792791129513218539 https://x.com/USAmbKyiv/status/1792791129513218539 [4]: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-launches-large-scale-missile-attack-ukraine-energy-facilities-kyiv-says-2024-12-13/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-launches-large-s...

115 points by TaurenHunter 2y ago

And an energy shortage bottlenecking Transformer projects

ggm 2y ago

Everybody wants them. They are semi bespoke. Ramping up supply chain takes time. Something novel we want to sell you in ieee space.

justahuman74 2y ago
> They are semi bespoke. Thats interesting, surely there are millions of them deployed out there. Was there something that prevented standardization onto few types/sizes?
- ggm 2y ago
  It's said in the article, I think it's because the exact boundaries of operation depend so strongly on local conditions the specification space has too many parameters in variable space: easier to make them for the situation to spec than build to a standard? Down at the domestic supply level I am sure they buy thousands of mostly identical units.
  - crote 2y ago
    Sure, but how much of that is strictly required? It makes sense that transformers have traditionally been completely custom designs, but does something like cable orientation really matter all that much when you've got dozens of projects being delayed by many months? Why not modify the substation design to fit the transformers which are available?
- Mountain_Skies 2y ago
  Over my lifetime they seem to have both shrunk and become much more reliable so someone is iterating and improving the designs, just not at a high speed we are accustomed to in the IT world. My dream for the power grid would be for every home connected to it to have at minimum a battery that could handle two hours of peak load. The operation and maintenance of the grid would be so much easier if parts of it could be disconnected for an hour or two when necessary. The end users wouldn't need to know a disruption even happened. Even better would be capacity for two days, but even just two hours should get us several sigma of improvement.
  - mschuster91 2y ago
    > Over my lifetime they seem to have both shrunk and become much more reliable so someone is iterating and improving the designs, just not at a high speed we are accustomed to in the IT world. The reliability is one thing, that got improved mostly by better monitoring (you can spot early signs of degradation by analyzing the oil for residues indicating arc discharge), but the size is in the end fundamentally dominated by physics - you need a minimum gauge of copper wire to transfer a given current. The only way to improve the size of transformers will be the widespread availability of room-temperature superconducting material, which is as of now not even theoretically predicted, much less proven in practice.
    - marcosdumay 2y ago
      > The only way to improve the size of transformers will be the widespread availability of room-temperature superconducting material I'm not sure this is enough. You certainly do not need it to be room temperature, but the current density of your superconductor is critically relevant, and it tends to not be great.
thephyber 2y ago
The “Ramping up the supply chain takes time” has an interesting back story: https://electronics.stackexchange.com/questions/563786/why-does-it-take-such-a-long-time-to-build-a-new-power-grid-transformer https://electronics.stackexchange.com/questions/563786/why-d...
Gud 2y ago
There are a few standardised sizes. I don’t do transformer installations (anymore), but generally only energy producers use bespoke transformers.
- ggm 2y ago
  That's what the ieee say is in short supply
  - Gud 2y ago
    I work for a high voltage switchgear manufacturer. Everything is in short supply, transformers, cables, switchgear…

billfor 2y ago

Can you imagine what would happen if we had another carrington effect (which we will eventually) and were suddenly faced with having to build thousands of transformers....

someothherguyy 2y ago
> carrington effect Event* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event
mschuster91 2y ago
Or on a smaller scale, hybrid and open warfare, domestic terrorism [1] or just rednecks shooting at power lines [2] and transformers [3] already cause a lot of damage to power infrastructure. An AR-15 or Kalashnikov is enough to cause serious damage, a hit squad or two can take out unprotected infrastructure on a wide scale in a very short time - and most substations consist of barely more than a fence and barbed wire to deter wildlife from entering, not a concrete wall that would thwart attackers. [1] https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2014/01/military_style.html https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2014/01/military_styl... [2] https://newtoncountytimes.com/stories/shooting-power-and-fiber-lines-is-illegal,148256 https://newtoncountytimes.com/stories/shooting-power-and-fib... [3] https://www.sasktoday.ca/southeast/local-news/carlyle-rcmp-seeks-information-on-vandalism-to-transformers-7985132 https://www.sasktoday.ca/southeast/local-news/carlyle-rcmp-s...
- csunbird 2y ago
  One would expect the electrocution risk would be enough to deter the human attackers.
  - lsaferite 2y ago
    A sniper team with an anti-material rifle could wreak havoc very effectively and never even be noticed while doing so.
  - mschuster91 2y ago

ttoinou 2y ago

They’re now reworking transformer designs to use different or less sought-after materials, to last longer, to include power electronics that allow the easy conversion between AC and DC, and to be more standardized and less customized than the transformers of today. Or maybe they need to work out a new design that is not patent encumbered yet ?

nine_k 2y ago
They mention a bunch of new designs: hollow cores, high-temperature insulation, adjustable impedance. It's sort of hard to replace a grid-frequency transformer (mammoth-sized because of the low frequency) with something like a switched power supply that uses much higher frequencies and thus much smaller coils. The semiconductors required for that barely handle a couple of kV, while the grid uses tens and hundreds of kV. But a crisis like this is a good thing for the progress of technology. Demand by far outstrips supply, there's obviously good money to be made. Many new approaches are going to be researched and tried.
- namibj 2y ago
  We know well how to, and we have ways that allow for making very efficient DC/DC converters for the voltage levels that the grid utilizes.
  - immibis 2y ago
    They're quite expensive and big. Building sized. Sure these transformers are technically also building sizes, but it's a garden shed, not a warehouse.
catlifeonmars 2y ago
Or maybe the power grid is the problem.

trhway 2y ago

Russia specifically targets transformers in Ukraine. 3 years of bombing gets to cause a supply shortage in such a slow capex heavy industry.

TechDebtDevin 2y ago
[flagged]
- trhway 2y ago
  the scale is vastly different. As far as i see Israel hit 6 or something at the power station, and after that 4 were delivered as replacement. Ukraine related news mention things like this https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/05/22/kharkiv-receives-us-transformers-amid-energy-crisis-says-ambassadors/ https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/05/22/kharkiv-receives-us-t... "The US provided almost 60 transformers to the energy distribution operator in Kharkiv, enabling urgent repairs to the city's power grid damaged by Russian..." Ukraine's power infrastructure not only was powering the country it was also exporting energy to Europe. It is a multi-redundant piece of USSR energy infrastructure, a lot of equipment which Russia has been methodically destroying for all those years of war, and Ukraine with the help of West - restoring. Huge churn of equipment.
- marcosdumay 2y ago
  As the US targeted them in Yugoslavia... I dunno. This one seems to be a universal war casualty.
  - selimthegrim 2y ago
    And Iraq? Or just the switchgear sets?
    - marcosdumay 2y ago
      I don't know about Iraq. I don't even know what event of the US attacking Iraq you are talking about. But maybe. Anyway, they made a lot of noise about how there were only targeting the electricity infrastructure in Yugoslavia, and didn't disclose much about any other place.

WorkerBee28474 2y ago

> An LPT can weigh as much as two blue whales I'm sure glad they used such a commonly understood unit of weight. It really helps me understand the size of the item better than pounds or tons.

jimmaswell 2y ago
Gave me a much better frame of reference than some huge scalar, personally.
teruakohatu 2y ago
Pounds is so imperial. I prefer measuring using Loaves of Bread (lb) to communicate mass. 2 * bw ≈ 630,000 lb
- teddyh 2y ago
  Unleavened bread?
dagss 2y ago
As a metric European, blue whales give me a lot more intuition to work on than pounds. Tons would be nice though.
- mgiampapa 2y ago
  I'm sorry, only long tons or short tons. Why have one unit when you can have two? In metric it's a Tonne.
  - Symbiote 2y ago
    In many European languages the spelling like "ton" is used for 1000kg. It's primarily in English where there's still a need to distinguish between metric tons and older units.
    - eecc 2y ago

cma 2y ago

So Transformers caused a shortage of transformers.

nine_k 2y ago
Only partly. Also sun, cars, and wars.
- 8bitsrule 2y ago
  Not to mention AI and coin-mining of course.
  - dogboat 2y ago
    Transformers is the AI

cavisne 2y ago

This seems like exactly the sort of problem Elon is good at solving (or more accurately incentivizing engineers to solve). xAIs cluster buildout (powered by generators while the grid was being ramped up) would’ve had a lot of lessons.

SideQuark 2y ago
It seems like the kind of thing Musk would say he’d do but never deliver. https://elonmusk.today/ https://elonmusk.today/
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- Mountain_Skies 2y ago
  Time blindness is a well known common symptom of autism, which he has openly disclosed having. Anyone dealing with time estimates from someone with autism and time blindness should simply adjust for this known attribute of their being instead of relying on or attacking them for their disability.
  - thephyber 2y ago
    Naw. He doesn’t get a pass when it comes to time-related criticism of him if he doesn’t also afford the same pass to his employees and the regulators of his businesses.
  - someothherguyy 2y ago
    > It remains unclear if autism is characterized by a fundamental time perception impairment. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6852160/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6852160/ Some other reviews state there is evidence, but only on studies for very small time scales. Not saying this definitively states anything, but it is interesting.
- jeroenhd 2y ago
  That website needs an update. He did deliver a pick-up truck (though that was neither a better truck than the F150, nor a better sports car than a standard 911, like he promised).

Animats 2y ago

The business is tiny in terms of number of units built, and they're basically hand-built. Some of the interior components are laminated wood. The number of people with the skills to make these things is small, and, since they're expected to last 30 to 50 years, nobody wants to buy from a startup. You want to be able to get replacement parts in 2050. Plus, General Electric broke up, and GE Vernova now has the transformer business.[1] [1] https://www.gevernova.com/grid-solutions/hvmv_equipment/catalog/power_transformers.htm#Ov2 https://www.gevernova.com/grid-solutions/hvmv_equipment/cata...

quickthrowman 2y ago
> Plus, General Electric broke up, and GE Vernova now has the transformer business. Slight clarification, GE Vernova has the (most of) the medium and high voltage transformer business. ABB bought GE Industrial Solutions which includes all of GE’s low-voltage (under 1000 volts) transformers (plus all other sub-1000 volt GE switchgear, breakers, panel boards, etc) plus some 5-15kV medium voltage lines.
- Animats 2y ago
  Right, but it's the big semi-custom stuff that's hard to get. Distribution transformers (the things on poles) are a commodity. Part of the problem with generator step-up transformers is that the input side generator specs are determined by the generator, and the output side transmission grid specs are determined by the grid operator. The transformer is the component stuck with the job of making those compatible. That's the kind of problem which leads to N x M variants being needed.

Hilift 2y ago

"Ibrahima Ndiaye, a senior principal engineer at GEVAR who led the project, says the breakthrough was figuring out how to give a conventional transformer the capability to change its impedance (that is, its resistance to electricity flow) without changing any other feature in the transformer, including its voltage ratio. "Impedance and voltage ratio are both critical features of a transformer that ordinarily must be tailored to each use case. If you can tweak both factors independently, then you can modify the transformer for various uses. But altering the impedance without also changing the transformer’s voltage ratio initially seemed impossible, Ndiaye says. "The solution turned out to be surprisingly straightforward. The engineer added the same amount of windings to both sides of the transformer’s core, but in opposite directions, cancelling out the voltage increase and thereby allowing him to tweak one factor without automatically changing the other. “There is no [other] transformer in the world that has a capability of that today,” Ndiaye says."

mycall 2y ago
It is hard to believe that no other transformer has used opposite directions in the past. It is such a big oversight.
- svilen_dobrev 2y ago
  i am not much into transformers, but isn't so-called zero-flux thing something similar? https://electronics.stackexchange.com/questions/511880/measure-dc-current-with-current-transformer https://electronics.stackexchange.com/questions/511880/measu...
magicalhippo 2y ago
From what I can gather, this[1] is the research paper behind the described transformer, however it's not open access. However there is an available technical report here[2] with details. The design is based on an autotransformer[3], where the primary and secondary windings are connected in series, so effectively one coil. Section 2 in the technical report has details on how the flexible impedance windings. It's not as trivial as just adding some more windings, though perhaps in practice that's what it looks like. [1]: https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9959916 https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9959916 [2]: https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1527031 https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1527031 [3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autotransformer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autotransformer

alenrozac 2y ago

EM said in one of the podcasts that chip shortage -> transformer shortage -> energy shortage. That was about a year ago or so. Asked Chat to make me a portfolio to target the transformer market. Have to say, it works.

bilsbie 2y ago

This would be a cool yc startup.

Gravityloss 2y ago

Semiconductors have advanced a lot in the last few decades so they also enable different transformers and transmission lines. Very low level materials science. China already has megavolt level UHVDC deployed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultra-high-voltage_electricity_transmission_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultra-high-voltage_electricity...

ocschwar 2y ago

Even before the crisis you had lead times of over a year.

Workaccount2 2y ago

This is the kind of thing that I sort of have the knowledge to jump into (I do power electronics by day) but have no will to actually pursue since hardware manufacturing in the US is very expensive to start, very hard to develop, very punishing to maintain, and very low margins even when you accomplish all that. Trump talks a ton about "Bringing back manufacturing", but the dude is clearly using it purely for political points. Anyone in the industry knows the supply chains here are weak as hell, and anyone young with a brain is going to SWE or Finance. The industry today is held up by grey beards past retirement sticking with it because no else can do it.

bluGill 2y ago
Don't be so pessimistic. There is a lot of manufacturing and supply chains in the US. However US manufacturing needs to be highly automated to compete and so it only make sense for products that are easy to manufacturing in a highly automated way. This implies high volumes, or something else that isn't always easy. There are a lot of grey beards in industry, but that means there is room for a young person to learn what they know (they do know a lot of great things!) and then take over as their retire/die.

dgroshev 2y ago

It's unfortunate that the article doesn't point at the most obvious cause of the shortage: Russia deliberately and systematically destroying Ukrainian power grid for three years, and Western unwillingness to put a stop to that. The scale of necessary repairs is mind boggling. Here's what just Europe alone shipped to Ukraine to repair the damage [1]: - 8 827 power generators… with an estimated 1 258 590 kVA in power generators - 3 597 transformers + 5 autotransformers - 3 364 generators and 14 transformers from the rescEU stockpile Then there is US support: - 18 autotransformers "with more on the way" [2] - 59 transformers just for Kharkiv [3] …and that is just scratching the surface and is barely enough to keep the lights on, with Ukrainians installing private batteries and generation up and down the country. Just last night Russia launched another massive attack at the energy infrastructure [4]. More expensive, rare, long lead time transformers getting blown up, and the raid doesn't even get any attention in the West. [1]: https://erccportal.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ECHO-Products/Maps#/maps/5108 https://erccportal.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ECHO-Products/Maps#/maps... [2]: https://x.com/USAmbKyiv/status/1819094722754797600 https://x.com/USAmbKyiv/status/1819094722754797600 [3]: https://x.com/USAmbKyiv/status/1792791129513218539 https://x.com/USAmbKyiv/status/1792791129513218539 [4]: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-launches-large-scale-missile-attack-ukraine-energy-facilities-kyiv-says-2024-12-13/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-launches-large-s...