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That's the view from a country on the trailing edge. In Shenzhen, or Seoul, or Tskuba, or Tapei you'll find enthusiasm for technology. The US can't even make a

That's the view from a country on the trailing edge. In Shenzhen, or Seoul, or Tskuba, or Tapei you'll find enthusiasm for technology. The US can't even make a smartphone any more. Or electrical distribution equipment. Or telephone central offices. Or TV sets. Next to go, cars. (Chrysler just exited the car business. Minivans only now.)

31carmichael 2y ago
The US still makes some electrical distribution equipment. And the best electrical protection relay company, SEL, is in the US.
MichaelZuo 2y ago
Yeah this writer seems confused, by definition any above average group is more likely to regress to the global mean… Than to keep going upwards. That’s the default, so any speculations/arguments/etc… should be written to show why the other direction is more likely than not.
- ryandrake 2y ago
  It feels like we are instead bifurcating instead of regressing to a mean. The rich are getting richer and moving to one side together as a group, while the middle class and poor are merging the other way into their own "barely hanging on class", distributed around a point far on the other side. The average going up doesn't mean it's a tide that raises all boats.
  - MichaelZuo 2y ago
    Even a 30th percentile US household would be above average globally…?
    - TeMPOraL 2y ago
      If only they also had access to goods and services at globally average prices...
      - MichaelZuo 2y ago
        How does that relate to the phenomena of regression to the mean?
        TeMPOraL 2y ago
        In that it's tricky to identify the right mean to measure the regression against.
        MichaelZuo 2y ago
        It doesn’t matter which one you pick, there are no known exceptions to the general phenomena. That’s why I said by definition.
        Danmctree 2y ago
        By what definition? It's certainly possible that some kind of societal bell curve or other distribution can just keep getting wider without meaningful movement of the relative positions of individuals. I don't understand why you assume the most likely behavior is regression to the mean. Especially on short terms that seems weird to assume
        MichaelZuo 2y ago
        Who is assuming a short term?
    - wesapien 2y ago
      Punching down is clealrly a sign of things regressing. The Cantillon effect is what separates the rich and those aren't. Trickle down economics doesn't work. Imagine telling those barely middle and poor Americans you're still doing better than Thais or South Africans. It doesn't help.
      - MichaelZuo 2y ago
        How does this relate to the previous comment? Did you reply to the wrong one?
DennisP 2y ago
For cars the US does have Tesla, Lucid, and Rivian. The first two are vertically integrated, making as many of their own components as possible. We also have Intel, and a pretty great rocket company.
- TeMPOraL 2y ago
  > For cars the US does have Tesla (...) We also have (...) a pretty great rocket company And yet you all wish you didn't. Well, maybe not everyone, but it's the dominant view. This brings back a memory of a HN comment from a little over a decade ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7885128 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7885128 I'll just quote it in full: <quote cite='natural219'> If you want to track the death of the cultural vision of Silicon Valley -- the belief that some people, at least, can rise above petty human squabbling and competition and are legitimately working to better humanity -- look no further than this thread. Every top comment is a skeptical one. "This is clearly a great PR move, but has no teeth." "How do you enforce this guarantee?" Etc. These are reasonable questions, but as Shaw said, all progress comes from unreasonable men. I cannot help but be fundamentally depressed as I read these comments. In my view, Elon Musk has, moreso than any other human except maybe Bill Gates, given every absolute inch of human effort and genius to fight to solve the world's biggest problems. And all we have for him, after benefiting freely from the fruit of his labor, is skepticism. We want more. It's not enough. It's never enough. Yes, Tesla Motors is a company operating in a media-hyped 2014 America. I know some of you are butthurt that he engages in the same "dishonest" PR tactics that other companies do. GET THE FUCK OVER IT. The end product he's producing will save humanity. That all of America has not rallied behind Musk and Tesla as the most important movement and achievement in the last 100 years of human history absolutely blows my mind. Not only do we not recognize his goals or his achievements, we actively try and bring him down and shit on his accomplishments. "Well, they invented a pretty cool electric motor, sure, but they were kind of dishonest in that one press release that one time." Go fuck yourself. I want to say "I'm done with Hacker News", but we know that's not true. I'm supremely disappointed in all of you. Godspeed, Musk. I thought this was a great announcement, and I'm behind you 100%. I just hope you can finish your work before our shitty, myopic, destructive society tears you down. Here's to faith. </quote> Elon Musk may have changed for the worse since then, but nowhere near as much and as fast as our "shitty, myopic, destructive society", and in particular the Internet commentariat.
makeitshine 2y ago
There is plenty of disillusionment with the modern world in China and Taiwan and Korea.
- cyber_kinetist 2y ago
  ...which is apparent when you see the fertility rates of these countries.
Saigonautica 2y ago
I immigrated to Asia around a decade ago and the relative optimism for technology and the future in general is one of the things that struck me as well. I mean, if you look for pessimism you'll find examples of that too -- but in broad strokes I would also describe the average perception as 'enthusiastic'. It's something I've have a hard time explaining to my North American colleagues. Maybe it just has to be experienced?
- Animats 2y ago
  That's a result of massive recent change. The US hasn't had that, since the basic infrastructure was built long ago.
Xunxi 2y ago
There are no consumer drone companies in the U.S. worth talking about right now.
ben_w 2y ago
> The US can't even make a smartphone any more Has the US ever made one in the first place? IIRC Apple had to go to China for the first iPhone, were there any brands that could do it all in the US?
- kevindamm 2y ago
  When Motorola was acquired, a plant was purchased (a formerly Nokia one in Fort Worth, Texas) and the Moto X line was made in the US [0]. It was a short-lived experiment. Motorola was sold to Lenovo, and the plant shut down, within a few years. [0] https://www.theverge.com/2013/9/11/4717796/made-in-america-a-look-inside-motorolas-moto-x-factory https://www.theverge.com/2013/9/11/4717796/made-in-america-a...
  - ben_w 2y ago
    Nice find, short-lived explains why I'd not heard of it.
  - Animats 2y ago
    Early cell phone manufacturing was more automated than it is now. The "brick" type phones (Nokia, etc.) were a stack of boards with cutouts for the thick components. The whole stack was squeezed together and sometimes riveted. So the internals were well-supported and very tough. That kind of assembly could be totally automated. Pick and place to make the boards, stack and rivet to put it together. Modern phones have little pieces and wires all over the place.[1] You'd think these things would be designed for automated assembly, but they're not. [1] https://www.iphoneincanada.ca/2020/11/15/part-2-ifixit-iphone-12-mini-teardown-reveals-more-internals/ https://www.iphoneincanada.ca/2020/11/15/part-2-ifixit-iphon...
- kasey_junk 2y ago
  Palm pilot was manufactured in the US.
  - ben_w 2y ago
    And wasn't a smart phone.
chrisco255 2y ago
The US writes most of the software that powers those devices. It also designs the hardware. It also runs the data centers and backend infrastructure and software required to make those phones useful, like GPS satellites and AWS/Azure. It produces most of the content that people watch on their TVs and much of what they play on their video game systems. The U.S. is a leader in robotics, robotic surgery equipment, self driving, electric cars, space technology, agricultural technology, etc. Chrysler is owned by a French/Dutch company named Stellantis (it was owned by the German Daimler previously). That brand also controls Dodge, Jeep, Ram, etc. so while Chrysler cars and the Chrysler brand have been on a decades long decline, it's hardly an indication of an American exit from car manufacturing. The US is a leader in electic cars, trucks, SUVs, heavy equipment, etc. And even many foreign brands own factories in the U.S. that produce cars here.
- Novosell 2y ago
  Do you have a source for the US being a "leader" within trucks, SUVs and heavy equipment? Doesn't match my experience as someone not from the US who sees mostly brands not from the US.
- ThrowawayR2 2y ago
  > "The US writes most of the software that powers those devices." For the moment. Have you noticed how many of those people building that software are immigrants? Most of the FAANGs and other significant tech companies have development centers worldwide and it's vastly easier to pack up and move a software development office elsewhere than it is to move a factory and all its equipment.
saturn8601 2y ago
>The US can't even make a smartphone any more. Well they are trying. Purism has a "Made in America" phone: the Liberty Phone. https://puri.sm/products/liberty-phone/ https://puri.sm/products/liberty-phone/ Why do you think cars are leaving the US? Tesla is a fully American manufacturer with some of the most US sourced components, GM/Ford aren't moving their cash cows out of the country anytime soon. and the Japanese and Germans are expanding their presence in the US. You cited a long declining brand that has had an agism problem. Thats your best evidence? I guess you can make the argument that there are too many brands in the car industry but the car manufacturing sector in the US is still quite strong.

31carmichael 2y ago

The US still makes some electrical distribution equipment. And the best electrical protection relay company, SEL, is in the US.

MichaelZuo 2y ago

Yeah this writer seems confused, by definition any above average group is more likely to regress to the global mean… Than to keep going upwards. That’s the default, so any speculations/arguments/etc… should be written to show why the other direction is more likely than not.

ryandrake 2y ago
It feels like we are instead bifurcating instead of regressing to a mean. The rich are getting richer and moving to one side together as a group, while the middle class and poor are merging the other way into their own "barely hanging on class", distributed around a point far on the other side. The average going up doesn't mean it's a tide that raises all boats.
- MichaelZuo 2y ago
  Even a 30th percentile US household would be above average globally…?
  - TeMPOraL 2y ago
    If only they also had access to goods and services at globally average prices...
    - MichaelZuo 2y ago
      How does that relate to the phenomena of regression to the mean?
      - TeMPOraL 2y ago
        In that it's tricky to identify the right mean to measure the regression against.
        MichaelZuo 2y ago
        It doesn’t matter which one you pick, there are no known exceptions to the general phenomena. That’s why I said by definition.
        Danmctree 2y ago
        By what definition? It's certainly possible that some kind of societal bell curve or other distribution can just keep getting wider without meaningful movement of the relative positions of individuals. I don't understand why you assume the most likely behavior is regression to the mean. Especially on short terms that seems weird to assume
        MichaelZuo 2y ago
        Who is assuming a short term?
  - wesapien 2y ago
    Punching down is clealrly a sign of things regressing. The Cantillon effect is what separates the rich and those aren't. Trickle down economics doesn't work. Imagine telling those barely middle and poor Americans you're still doing better than Thais or South Africans. It doesn't help.
    - MichaelZuo 2y ago
      How does this relate to the previous comment? Did you reply to the wrong one?

DennisP 2y ago

For cars the US does have Tesla, Lucid, and Rivian. The first two are vertically integrated, making as many of their own components as possible. We also have Intel, and a pretty great rocket company.

TeMPOraL 2y ago
> For cars the US does have Tesla (...) We also have (...) a pretty great rocket company And yet you all wish you didn't. Well, maybe not everyone, but it's the dominant view. This brings back a memory of a HN comment from a little over a decade ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7885128 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7885128 I'll just quote it in full: <quote cite='natural219'> If you want to track the death of the cultural vision of Silicon Valley -- the belief that some people, at least, can rise above petty human squabbling and competition and are legitimately working to better humanity -- look no further than this thread. Every top comment is a skeptical one. "This is clearly a great PR move, but has no teeth." "How do you enforce this guarantee?" Etc. These are reasonable questions, but as Shaw said, all progress comes from unreasonable men. I cannot help but be fundamentally depressed as I read these comments. In my view, Elon Musk has, moreso than any other human except maybe Bill Gates, given every absolute inch of human effort and genius to fight to solve the world's biggest problems. And all we have for him, after benefiting freely from the fruit of his labor, is skepticism. We want more. It's not enough. It's never enough. Yes, Tesla Motors is a company operating in a media-hyped 2014 America. I know some of you are butthurt that he engages in the same "dishonest" PR tactics that other companies do. GET THE FUCK OVER IT. The end product he's producing will save humanity. That all of America has not rallied behind Musk and Tesla as the most important movement and achievement in the last 100 years of human history absolutely blows my mind. Not only do we not recognize his goals or his achievements, we actively try and bring him down and shit on his accomplishments. "Well, they invented a pretty cool electric motor, sure, but they were kind of dishonest in that one press release that one time." Go fuck yourself. I want to say "I'm done with Hacker News", but we know that's not true. I'm supremely disappointed in all of you. Godspeed, Musk. I thought this was a great announcement, and I'm behind you 100%. I just hope you can finish your work before our shitty, myopic, destructive society tears you down. Here's to faith. </quote> Elon Musk may have changed for the worse since then, but nowhere near as much and as fast as our "shitty, myopic, destructive society", and in particular the Internet commentariat.

makeitshine 2y ago

There is plenty of disillusionment with the modern world in China and Taiwan and Korea.

cyber_kinetist 2y ago
...which is apparent when you see the fertility rates of these countries.

Saigonautica 2y ago

I immigrated to Asia around a decade ago and the relative optimism for technology and the future in general is one of the things that struck me as well. I mean, if you look for pessimism you'll find examples of that too -- but in broad strokes I would also describe the average perception as 'enthusiastic'. It's something I've have a hard time explaining to my North American colleagues. Maybe it just has to be experienced?

Animats 2y ago
That's a result of massive recent change. The US hasn't had that, since the basic infrastructure was built long ago.

Xunxi 2y ago

There are no consumer drone companies in the U.S. worth talking about right now.

ben_w 2y ago

> The US can't even make a smartphone any more Has the US ever made one in the first place? IIRC Apple had to go to China for the first iPhone, were there any brands that could do it all in the US?

kevindamm 2y ago
When Motorola was acquired, a plant was purchased (a formerly Nokia one in Fort Worth, Texas) and the Moto X line was made in the US [0]. It was a short-lived experiment. Motorola was sold to Lenovo, and the plant shut down, within a few years. [0] https://www.theverge.com/2013/9/11/4717796/made-in-america-a-look-inside-motorolas-moto-x-factory https://www.theverge.com/2013/9/11/4717796/made-in-america-a...
- ben_w 2y ago
  Nice find, short-lived explains why I'd not heard of it.
- Animats 2y ago
  Early cell phone manufacturing was more automated than it is now. The "brick" type phones (Nokia, etc.) were a stack of boards with cutouts for the thick components. The whole stack was squeezed together and sometimes riveted. So the internals were well-supported and very tough. That kind of assembly could be totally automated. Pick and place to make the boards, stack and rivet to put it together. Modern phones have little pieces and wires all over the place.[1] You'd think these things would be designed for automated assembly, but they're not. [1] https://www.iphoneincanada.ca/2020/11/15/part-2-ifixit-iphone-12-mini-teardown-reveals-more-internals/ https://www.iphoneincanada.ca/2020/11/15/part-2-ifixit-iphon...
kasey_junk 2y ago
Palm pilot was manufactured in the US.
- ben_w 2y ago
  And wasn't a smart phone.

chrisco255 2y ago

The US writes most of the software that powers those devices. It also designs the hardware. It also runs the data centers and backend infrastructure and software required to make those phones useful, like GPS satellites and AWS/Azure. It produces most of the content that people watch on their TVs and much of what they play on their video game systems. The U.S. is a leader in robotics, robotic surgery equipment, self driving, electric cars, space technology, agricultural technology, etc. Chrysler is owned by a French/Dutch company named Stellantis (it was owned by the German Daimler previously). That brand also controls Dodge, Jeep, Ram, etc. so while Chrysler cars and the Chrysler brand have been on a decades long decline, it's hardly an indication of an American exit from car manufacturing. The US is a leader in electic cars, trucks, SUVs, heavy equipment, etc. And even many foreign brands own factories in the U.S. that produce cars here.

Novosell 2y ago
Do you have a source for the US being a "leader" within trucks, SUVs and heavy equipment? Doesn't match my experience as someone not from the US who sees mostly brands not from the US.
ThrowawayR2 2y ago
> "The US writes most of the software that powers those devices." For the moment. Have you noticed how many of those people building that software are immigrants? Most of the FAANGs and other significant tech companies have development centers worldwide and it's vastly easier to pack up and move a software development office elsewhere than it is to move a factory and all its equipment.

saturn8601 2y ago

>The US can't even make a smartphone any more. Well they are trying. Purism has a "Made in America" phone: the Liberty Phone. https://puri.sm/products/liberty-phone/ https://puri.sm/products/liberty-phone/ Why do you think cars are leaving the US? Tesla is a fully American manufacturer with some of the most US sourced components, GM/Ford aren't moving their cash cows out of the country anytime soon. and the Japanese and Germans are expanding their presence in the US. You cited a long declining brand that has had an agism problem. Thats your best evidence? I guess you can make the argument that there are too many brands in the car industry but the car manufacturing sector in the US is still quite strong.