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What does a causal weather model even mean?
by hotstickyballs 2y ago
What does a causal weather model even mean?
- IshKebab 2y agoHe meant one that is physically based and interpretable, rather than a black box based on pattern matching. But I'll take the accurate black box any day, at least for weather forecasting. Climate modelling is a totally different thing.
- labster 2y agoAccurate black box is fine until it blows a forecast and people die, and you want to fix it for the next time. Take the situation with Hurricane Otis — what do you do if an AI doesn’t detect cyclogenesis 24-48 hours beforehand? Are we sure tuning the model to detect this event will improve forecast skill in general, or will it make it worse?
- nradov 2y agoWeather forecasting models will gradually improve over time but it's unreasonable to expect perfect accuracy. That is mathematically impossible in a chaotic system. Some people will always die in extreme weather events.
- SpaceManNabs 2y agoDoesn't exactly answer your question, but maybe this link will give enough intuition so that i can be lazy and hand-wave away an answer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Book_of_Why#Chapter_1:_The_Ladder_of_Causation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Book_of_Why#Chapter_1:_The...