4 ms·

Your opening sentence was well articulated. But I’m not so sure about your second sentence. How does a situation where world wide population drops to 4 billion

by ayewo 2y ago

Your opening sentence was well articulated. But I’m not so sure about your second sentence. How does a situation where world wide population drops to 4 billion come about? Even if US birth rates are declining, birth rates are climbing elsewhere so I’m struggling to see how in aggregate, the world population declines to half of what it is today.

unmole 2y ago
> birth rates are climbing elsewhere Where are birth rates climbing? Narnia?
- camgunz 2y ago
  Africa
  - oblio 2y ago
    Not enough to compensate for everywhere else plus even there most countries are tapering off.
  - unmole 2y ago
    [citation needed] Every source I've looked at shows a drop in fertility.
    - Thorrez 2y ago
      Birth rate is a somewhat ambiguous term. Does it mean number of births? Or does it mean number of births per person? You're talking about fertility rate, which is number of births per person. That's decreasing everywhere. ayewo may have been talking about number of births. That is increasing in Africa, but even with Africa, is still decreasing in total worldwide: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-number-of-births-by-world-region https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-number-of-births-b...
      - seanmcdirmid 2y ago
        I'm pretty sure birth rate is universally seen as a second order thing rather than a first order thing.
        Thorrez 2y ago
        What are you referring to by "birth rate"? Are you referring to the general society-wide system of babies being born? Or are you referring to a specific metric relating to how many babies are born? From definitions I find online, first order vs second order refers to systems. So if you're applying those adjectives to a specific metric, I'm not sure that's correct. I don't think we can say that people "universally" agree about what metric the term "birth rate" should refer to, because different people in this thread are using the term to refer to different metrics. However, I do think that generally the term "birth rate" refers to the number of babies born per year (or other unit of time), and the term "fertility rate" refers to the number of babies born per woman. Fertility rate is actually somewhat more complicated than that, because it takes into account the different fertility rates for women of different ages, and then sums those together, to simulate how many children a woman would have who passes through all the different ages. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birth_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birth_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate
  - idunnoman1222 2y ago
    Not climbing coming down, but still high
stefs 2y ago
not op but i think the climate catastrophe will curb population extensively. on the one hand by simply killing a lot of people directly (mostly war, famine and displacement), on the other hand by reducing birth rates (i.e. people not wanting to have children when there's not hope for the future).

by ayewo 2y ago

unmole 2y ago

> birth rates are climbing elsewhere Where are birth rates climbing? Narnia?

camgunz 2y ago
Africa
- oblio 2y ago
  Not enough to compensate for everywhere else plus even there most countries are tapering off.
- unmole 2y ago
  [citation needed] Every source I've looked at shows a drop in fertility.
  - Thorrez 2y ago
    Birth rate is a somewhat ambiguous term. Does it mean number of births? Or does it mean number of births per person? You're talking about fertility rate, which is number of births per person. That's decreasing everywhere. ayewo may have been talking about number of births. That is increasing in Africa, but even with Africa, is still decreasing in total worldwide: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-number-of-births-by-world-region https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-number-of-births-b...
    - seanmcdirmid 2y ago
      I'm pretty sure birth rate is universally seen as a second order thing rather than a first order thing.
      - Thorrez 2y ago
        What are you referring to by "birth rate"? Are you referring to the general society-wide system of babies being born? Or are you referring to a specific metric relating to how many babies are born? From definitions I find online, first order vs second order refers to systems. So if you're applying those adjectives to a specific metric, I'm not sure that's correct. I don't think we can say that people "universally" agree about what metric the term "birth rate" should refer to, because different people in this thread are using the term to refer to different metrics. However, I do think that generally the term "birth rate" refers to the number of babies born per year (or other unit of time), and the term "fertility rate" refers to the number of babies born per woman. Fertility rate is actually somewhat more complicated than that, because it takes into account the different fertility rates for women of different ages, and then sums those together, to simulate how many children a woman would have who passes through all the different ages. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birth_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birth_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate
- idunnoman1222 2y ago
  Not climbing coming down, but still high

stefs 2y ago

not op but i think the climate catastrophe will curb population extensively. on the one hand by simply killing a lot of people directly (mostly war, famine and displacement), on the other hand by reducing birth rates (i.e. people not wanting to have children when there's not hope for the future).