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Ask HN: Aren't you afraid of a possible world conflict?
Yesterday I was watching Threads (1984) and an inherent question came to mind: why aren't we so scared anymore?
- oldpersonintx 2y ago[dead]
- JPLeRouzic 2y agoThere are several possible reasons, but it may be because the strategic goals changed since WWI and WWII. Those two worldwide wars were quasi-colonial wars. Powers of the time were competing to become as powerful economically and militarily as possible. However, the war didn't end with WWII, since at any time there were around 20/30 wars in a quickly changing landscape. It's just that were not done in the Western world (except in the Balkans in the 1990'). Since that time there have been mostly two types of military conflicts by regional actors: * Low-intensity conflicts (the multiple "liberation" armies, religious wars or warlords as in central Africa) * Conflict between main powers via proxy.
- surrTurr 2y agoIt seems like there's a difference between the discourse online and IRL. Whenever I talk to people online, I get this picture of people not really caring and, depending on the bubble, even being excited for conflict. However, when talking to people IRL, they are much more "conservative" in their opinions, and also more afraid. What's closer to the truth? Tweets or real life conversations? I mean on one hand, there's less of a filter online and anonymity makes people dare say things they would otherwise not. It creates an interesting dynamic where other people hear those utterances and think just what you think: Why are people not afraid anymore? On the other hand, there's also a HUGE amount of bots and third parties influencing online discourse. I think it will only become apparent after say ~10-20 more years, on which scale online manipulation is actually taking place. It's insane.
- esperent 2y ago> What's closer to the truth? Tweets or real life conversations? Why do you think either is close to the truth?
- JSDevOps 2y agoHonestly, people in real life are petrified about interest rates going up and losing their job. They don’t give a shit about global conflict. Not one person I’ve come across has even mentioned it in the last year.
- mnky9800n 2y agorussia is currently invading ukraine using russian and north korean soldiers with the aide of iranian and chinese weapons. russia has supported pro russian candidates in elections using social media propaganda through chinese apps like tiktok helping people like hungary’s viktor orban or 2016s donald trump get elected. they also likely will get an unknown romanian pro russian leader elected as well. russia has supported houthi rebels and has promoted the war in syria. russia has put in place and supported the pro russian break away state of transnistria that has disrupted moldova. we are in a world conflict. the west has used it for war profiteering as they send all their old weapons to ukraine so they can buy new ones from their friendly local defense contractor.
- euroderf 2y ago> old weapons to ukraine AFAICT this is not a serious problem. Russia is in many cases fighting with junkyard scrapings. https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1860694569102258607 https://x.com/Jonpy99/status/1860694569102258607
- mnky9800n 2y agoIt doesn't matter what Russia is fighting with. The war is not about winning, it is about war profiteering. Both for Putin and the West. While the West gives out fat new contracts to build new weapons, Putin has stolen much of the grain produced in Ukraine and launders it through ship to ship transfers then sells to Egypt and other countries. This has made billions for Putin in the last year alone. Putin wins if the war ends and he wins if it continues. The only way he doesn't win if he no longer gets to play the game.
- dingosity 2y agoShould we be scared? [asked in all seriousness, not as a quip.]
- sieste 2y agoSince no amount of us being scared is going to make any difference whatsoever, I'd say no.
- kamaal 2y agoIts crazy how individuals can't decide if they just want to be left alone to live in peace. I hope someday if life becomes multi planetary, there will be a way to just step away from any fight and just go live wherever you want to.
- meiraleal 2y agoJust move to country-side Brazil, be it in the South or in the Amazon. the country is so big and far from the war teathers that you can think of it as another world already
- hkpack 2y agoNot scared but acknowledge that the world in which there were long periods of peace and short wars is over. There will be long wars and short peace from now on for undefined time. Whether it will be wars on the periphery or a global war depends on which stage western democracies will wake up and collectively realise the reality of the situation.
- ManlyBread 2y agoThe everyday problems are already overwhelming enough, I don't have the mental and emotional capacity to add an another, hypothetical problem to the mix.
- atlasduo 2y agoBecause a lot of people are still in denial, not believing this is a plausible scenario, just like they were in denial that a large war might break out in eastern Europe "because we don't really do wars anymore". Worst part is, apparently, lots of politicians at the wheel also believe "it won't come to this". Reality is going to hit like a truck.
- workflowing 2y agoThis. But reality will hit rather like a missile.
- red-iron-pine 2y agolike a JDAM
- suddenlybananas 2y agoI am but what can I do about it.
- 082349872349872 2y agoMy question: after having survived the Cold War without actually blowing each other up (and wintering everyone else out), why were people so scared of "terrorism" at the turn of the century?
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- arisAlexis 2y agoSo not blowing ourselves up , up to now means that we will never do ? Strange logic fallacy but I've heard it before.
- 082349872349872 2y agoNo, avoiding blowing ourselves up (or summering ourselves out?) means we had much bigger things to be afraid of than capital-t Terrorism. For what it's worth, I believe that instead of starting a war and an occupation, when the Taliban said they were ready to give ObL up on condition the US provide some evidence he was behind WTC, they could've simply been taken up on their offer. (Similar goes for "WMD")
- gsf_emergency 2y agoLet's just (pace namer of the kwisatz haderech) call the true Shaitan by its name: meretrocracy :) [Fwiw I have not Figured out the right orthography (including case, number of R's etc)]
- 082349872349872 2y agoAs in "the divided god"? not shoggoth but sandworm?
- skwee357 2y agoThe thing is, I no longer trust any news source. They all exist to serve their agenda, while rarely providing the real picture. So there is no way for me, as a regular citizen, to truly know what happens in the world or a particular regional conflict. So while I do worry that there might be a bigger war, I also realize that the picture painted by the news, or the "promises" that different country leaders make, are meant to serve two goals: (1) keeping the general public in constant fear, and (2) making them (the leader) appear strong/decisive in a regional/international arena.
- arisAlexis 2y agoYes there is. For example there is war in Ukraine and in Gaza and you can find more information on those digging deeper. Not trusting any news source and never combining news to "unbias" them is same thinking that leads to " maybe they are lying to us and the earth is flat". There is always a solution.
- ahartmetz 2y agoRight. "Nothing is true anyway" is how the truth is buried in Russia with a sophisticated media control operation, and look at the consequences. There is a truth, and it's neither particularly hidden nor extraordinary in most cases.
- skwee357 2y agoYou can find information, that's true. But for an ordinary citizen, this is usually where it ends. All kinds of feelings such as "being afraid of world conflict", is your interpretation of the found information, either because you've reached this conclusion yourself, or because you live in an echo chamber where this conclusion is the accepted one (see: Russia being anti-west). While I don't discourage people to seek information, and reach conclusions, in today's world, unless you are directly involved in the conflict/decision-making, the chance for you to get accurate information is an extremely hard task. News either take things out of context, or simply lack professionalism due to poor journalism, lack of time and or desire to perform thorough deep dives, etc. Social media is filled with fake information, both as a tool in the information war, as well as by "influencers" who keep reposting everything that brings them views. And in the end, the saying "history is written by the victors", was, is, and forever will be - true.
- FinanceAnon 2y agoI try not to worry about things that are not up to me. I will die at some point anyway.
- peepeepoopoo89 2y agoNo, because I voted for Trump. Europe gets to take responsibility for the wars they start and escalate now. Not my problem.
- 082349872349872 2y agoAre you counting russia as part of Eurasia here? Because to me it's looking more like becoming part of Eastasia instead.
- badpun 2y agoRussia was always the weird case of a country with a cruel, Asian steppe mentality (early in the days of the Dutchy of Moscow, they were conquered and thoroughly subjugated by the Mongols, the Mongol mark of cruelty and disdain for human life is still there in XXI century) that is also Christian. The Christianity has confused Western leaders throught the ages, who thought Russia is like any other European country, and can be reasoned with.
- leviliebvin 2y agoRight. The English, the French, the Germans, the Dutch, the Swedish, the Spanish, the Portuguese, the Romans, the Greeks, the Austrians, the Belgians, ..., the Cossacks ... none of those ever did anything to show any kind of "cruel mentality". Right. This kind of completely unhinged dehumanizing nonsense is bordering hate speech.
- badpun 2y agoI am not dehumanising Russians, merely their political culture and political traditions. A country can have a lot of decent people and, at the same time, be a hate and death-monger - just see the Nazi Germany. All depends on current leadership and their policies, which in large part depends on country's political culture and history (e.g. Putin wouldn't really fly as a leader of Canada, and Trudeau would get murdered in no time if he somehow became a leader of Russia).
- hnaccountme 2y agoBecause everyone thinks they are the good guys. And good guys always win. ;)
- leviliebvin 2y ago100%, our leaders are playing with fire at this point. Their reasoning is also not rational. If you cannot use diplomacy with Putin because he is crazy, then why do you expect Putin to back down when you try to escalate to deescalate?
- badpun 2y agoEscalation is using force, not diplomacy. Force is something that Putin understands very well.
- leviliebvin 2y agoAgain, I see no reason why Putin would back down. Instead it reinforces his worldview that the West is the enemy and not interested in any kind of fair balance of power. As for who understands diplomacy, one wonders if the US/EU understand diplomacy. China seems to have no problem dealing with Russia. Somehow the US/EU with their combined might cannot manage it.
- badpun 2y agoHe will back down when the war becomes too expensive, economically and politically. It's a war of attrition after all. As to China, Russia's beefs with China were always marginal (Russian Far East is not a very important part of the country), so no wonder China have no problem dealing with Russia. They have no major points of contention, while sharing a common enemy. As per the geopolitical game in Europe between the US and Russia, the problem is that Russia wants eastern and central europe to again become their "sphere of influence", without any regard for what those countries want. Those countries know that being in US' sphere of influence means prosperity and peace for them, while being in Russian sphere of influence means poverty, political oppression, corruption, rule of stupidity, and potentially wars (forced to send recruits to help Russia). That's the major problem here - Russia wants to force on a bunch of its neighbors something they never said they wanted. In turn, they go to US for defence against their abusive neighbor. It's not US forcing itself onto Central and Eastern Europe, it's those countries practically begging to be protected (Poland's foreign minister was once recorded saying that "we'll suck America's dick for peanuts as usual", because that's Poland's only play).
- ipnon 2y agoMilitary victory has been a precondition to military punishment for all of human history. You had to disable the enemy’s forces before you used the threat of further violence to enact your political will. In fact for all of recorded warfare, it was expected that the victors would be able to commit what we today call war crimes with impunity. The default consequence of defeat was all of your men being killed, all of your women being raped, and all of your children being enslaved. The advent of nuclear weapons and ICBMs flips this precondition on its head. We no longer need to defeat enemy forces to inflict shocking and monstrous pain upon our enemies, nor upon any nation of the world, nor upon even the entire world. America and Russia both have the hair-trigger capability to launch thermonuclear weapons to any point on the globe. It takes 60 seconds to launch an ICBM, about 10 minutes for SLBMs, and a few hours for strategic bombers to reach their targets. 3,000 thermonuclear weapons can be detonated in anger in the time it takes to commute to work. Our psychology did not evolve for this environment, and in fact it had not evolved from the previous state of affairs at all because there are still people alive who witnessed the first detonations of nuclear weapons! A single generation! We don’t know if we can survive this state of affairs. Our time is marked by “for the first time in history” and “unprecedented.”
- Yawrehto 2y agoI always have trouble with claims that our time is unique,because I can quickly construct arguments for just about any other time. So yes, our era is unique, but is it uniquely unique?
- srcnkcl 2y agoIt depends on who you are. Peasent? nothing different until 1750, Aristocrat? unique pretty much any time humanity invented something.
- appplication 2y agoWe do have the unique ability for a very small number of decision makers (theoretically one, but in practice maybe a few more) to completely eradicate all life on earth, or at a minimum vast swaths of it, within minutes. Nuclear weapons are uniquely unique. We manage to avoid self-extermination through having relatively cool heads in charge of these decisions, but that is a cultural norm, not a universal guarantee. If you assume there any chance at all that someone willing to use these ever ends up in control of this capability, on a long enough timeline that is essentially guaranteed to happen.
- ogou 2y agoWe are in the middle of multiple world conflicts, through regional proxies. People are experiencing the consequences of those conflicts, even dying. They are afraid of the continuing effects. Others are scared of possible future conflicts. Your question was probably meant for a specific group of people. When you say "we", who is that? If you mean something that affects the U.K., like the setting of Threads, then it's just a matter of distance and scale. Most people in the U.K. aren't exposed to a direct threat of kinetic conflict, but that doesn't mean the rest of the world is not in physical danger of some kind. To answer your question directly though, I think we have multiple generations that have grown up believing that anything they see on the internet is not actually real or is happening to somebody else. That includes war. The idea of a global conflict is just a Netflix plot or something, not anything that could actually happen. Few people have met a combat veteran or war refugee, but lots of people have played Call of Duty. That's their reference point. It's just not real. Consider this, even with all the condemnation of Russia over the invasion of Ukraine, the sanctions, the shipment of arms. We are still using Soyuz spacecraft launched from Russia to go to the space station. We still share resources for all of that, including lots of money. That means there is a limit to the outrage, when it comes to economic and structural needs.
- throwaway-1124 2y agoI don't think there's much to be afraid of, for one simple if nonobvious reason: Russia has already won. There's no point in fighting a war if you can turn the enemy into a satellite without firing a single shot. They did so by deploying an incredible hybrid and cyber warfare machine, outsmarting what little defenses the West put up. They turned our democracies against us, weaponizing hundreds of millions of simpletons. In the 90s we dreamt that the Internet would galvanize democracy. It became an amazing weapon of subversion instead. Russia leveraged kooky franchisees on the extremes of the political spectrum. Aware that they did not belong in politics otherwise, they were all too happy to cooperate. In 2000 Trump sought the nomination of the Reform party and lost [1]. He was unable to leverage his money and Russian support into securing a primary win of a 2% party. Fifteen years and billions of rubles later, the Russian hype machine had been fully built out. He was guided to the 2016 Republican nomination with the precision of a hypersonic missile. A similar story played itself out in virtually all other Western countries. Beware of the usual exceptionalist apologies - Trump, Orban, Le Pen, Farage are all cookie-cutter stories. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_2000_presidential_campaign https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_2000_presidential...
- libertine 2y ago[flagged]
- peepeepoopoo91 2y ago[flagged]
- libertine 2y agoBesides that being a propagandized lie and an iteration that fell off because it didn't stick, you could at least make an effort and provide a source. But I did forget about this Russian propaganda point, thank you for pointing it out. Also, I should add the: - USA is building bioweapons labs in Ukraine; - There are CIA bases in Ukraine;
- peepeepoopoo91 2y ago[flagged]
- libertine 2y ago[flagged]
- peepeepoopoo91 2y ago[flagged]
- libertine 2y ago[flagged]
- peepeepoopoo91 2y ago[flagged]
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- thorin 2y agoWatching threads is always a mistake lol. Next you need to avoid watching this - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_the_Wind_Blows_(comics) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_the_Wind_Blows_(comics). I grew up with this kind of stuff being in the news all the time. I tend to try to avoid the news now or only visit it quite sporadically. It's good not to worry about things you have no control over. Of course your world could come to an end at anytime in multiple ways. Try and keep a healthy body and mind and develop yourself and your relationships, what else can you do? Maybe investigate meditation and mindfulness.
- warkanlock 2y agoYou know what? Last night I watched Threads. No kidding
- gmuslera 2y agoNothing had happened so far, so odds are diminishing with time, not growing up. At least for most people. Alert fatigue, if you want to call it somehow. The potential is there. If it can happen, given enough time, it surely will. But the odds of happening in a specific moment, at least while tensions are not higher than when it didn't happened anything in the past, may be seen as lower. Reality is different than what it used to be in the 60-70's. But that also means that new factors can be in play, for good and bad. In any case, I think is more sure to be afraid of climate change. It won't blow up tomorrow, but is something that is escalating up, and it may be trigger for more negative things, including, but not limited to, world conflicts.
- gus_massa 2y agoI try to keep some food at home (probably 2 weeks), it's just the normal food so it's rotating naturally. It's also helpful for weird local events that are very rare, but not unheard. (Hi from Argentina!) I should keep more water, but I'm too lazy. I have only probably only two days that is too few. If I had time, I'd pick some iodine pills. They are small and have a long shelf life. Anything else is too difficult or too far from my control.
- warkanlock 2y agoQue haces che! Two of us from Argentina; it seems like a traditional thing with inflation that my father taught me a long time ago to keep food for at least 2 weeks. I'll try to do the same with the pills, sounds reasonable and low-effort
- gus_massa 2y agoThe two weeks are mostly to avoid short suply cuts events. For inflation the idea is to keep as few pesos as possible at the end of the month. For example, when we got the usual half extra salary in July, one year we used it to buy liquid laundry soap for the whole year instead of keeping the money in the bank. It has a good shelf life and high price to volume ratio.
- haunter 2y agoI don't worry about things that beyond my control
- TheChaplain 2y agoNo. This may sound weird but being afraid or worrying about something that I don't have much influence on is a waste of time and energy. Yes, I do vote and are engaged in local politics, but ultimately it is up to the leaders we elect to make the decisions. But in critical situations it may be actions that does not favor me at all. And I am fine with that, I go on with my life, while preparing as best as I can to handle whatever the future throws in my way.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- drweevil 2y agoTL;DR people don't understand the dangers. They grossly underestimate the complexity and fragility of our current global supply chain and they especially underestimate their dependence on it. A major world conflict would make it difficult even to feed my cat. COVID should have been a wake-up call, but that has receded safely into the past as the "normal" ppl craved has resumed.
- disambiguation 2y agoI could make some arguments about economics, world order, and devastating weapons, but i think this above all: governments barely got their people to go along with covid measures.
- glimshe 2y agoNo. The elites in neither side would win in this particular conflict if it becomes much bigger. Because of that, it won't happen. However, the status quo of a frequent limited conflicts has significant profit potential, so you'll still see these happening.
- MrHamburger 2y agoPeople can feel scared (paying attention) only for so long. War in Ukraine or climate change, it is happening in a too slow pace for people to keep attention next to their daily life, while they can't influence those events in any way. Can Putin end the world if he will be afraid enough of losing? Maybe. Can you stop it? No. Then why would you care?
- joquarky 2y agoThe Chinese Farmer Story Once upon a time there was a Chinese farmer whose horse ran away. That evening, all of his neighbors came around to commiserate. They said, “We are so sorry to hear your horse has run away. This is most unfortunate.” The farmer said, “Maybe.” The next day the horse came back bringing seven wild horses with it, and in the evening everybody came back and said, “Oh, isn’t that lucky. What a great turn of events. You now have eight horses!” The farmer again said, “Maybe.” The following day his son tried to break one of the horses, and while riding it, he was thrown and broke his leg. The neighbors then said, “Oh dear, that’s too bad,” and the farmer responded, “Maybe.” The next day the conscription officers came around to conscript people into the army, and they rejected his son because he had a broken leg. Again all the neighbors came around and said, “Isn’t that great!” Again, he said, “Maybe.” The whole process of nature is an integrated process of immense complexity, and it’s really impossible to tell whether anything that happens in it is good or bad — because you never know what will be the consequence of the misfortune; or, you never know what will be the consequences of good fortune. — Alan Watts
- tmaly 2y agoThat is a pretty wild movie. Back in the mid 90's my high school physics teacher made us watch it. It is probably the most realistic depiction of what would happen if a nuclear war broke out.
- Gud 2y agoFrankly, I grew up in the last years of the cold war and remember the collapse of the Soviet Union and the eventual coup attempts vividly. It was ingrained in my memory that there is a large chance of nuclear warfare in mainland Europe. But I witnessed how Europe fairly quickly tbh dismantled its self defence capabilities by incompetent leadership. At the same time, Russia has attacked multiple of its neighbours over the years, and the USA has started multiple fraudulent wars to sustain its hegemony. I guess I’m jaded?
- lcall 2y agoTimes can be difficult but we can have peace, practical guidance, and help. Noah warned people, and prophets warn and guide today (the same God, had prophets then, has them now). More at my web site (in profile, no sales and low stylistic ambition), if you click on "Things I want to say" (about 1/2-way down), then "On peace amid commotion" (also about 1/2-way down), then skim that page and click at least the last link. Then read the entire page and click the links that seem most interesting.
- SAI_Peregrinus 2y agoI am, for all intents & purposes, powerless to prevent it. And I can't do anything meaningful to prepare for it. So why worry about it? I can vote for people I think will try to avoid it, and have normal preparedness for much more likely disasters, but beyond that there's not much to do.
- Eddy_Viscosity2 2y ago> why aren't we so scared anymore? Why bother being afraid if you can't do anything about? I have enough more immediate stressors to consume all my worry bandwidth that there's not enough left over for such things. Also, the inherent self preservation of people is always a factor. I mean, I have very deep concerns about the damage the second Trump administration will reek on US (and the rest of the world for that matter), but I am not afraid he'll press the red button. He'd have as much to lose as the rest of us. Same goes for Putin and Xi.