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October 2023 there was similar incident where Chinese cargo ship cut Balticonnector cable and EE-S1 cable. Chip named 'Newnew Polar Bear' under Chinese flag an

by nabla9 2y ago

October 2023 there was similar incident where Chinese cargo ship cut Balticonnector cable and EE-S1 cable. Chip named 'Newnew Polar Bear' under Chinese flag and Chinese company Hainan Xin Xin Yang Shipping Co, Ltd. (aka Torgmoll) with CEO named Yelena V. Maksimova, drags anchor in the seabed cutting cables. Chinese investigation claims storm was the reason, but there was no storm, just normal windy autumn weather. The ship just lowered one anchor and dragged it with engines running long time across the seabed until the anchor broke. These things happen sometimes, ship anchors sometimes damage cables, but not this often and without serious problems in the ship. Russians are attempting plausible deniability.

spongebobstoes 2y ago
What are some concrete reasons why someone would want to damage these cables? Who benefits?
- Mistletoe 2y ago
  It doesn’t even really stop anything right? Communications just have to route around it and use other cables and satellites. It just seems like Russia wants to be annoying.
  - Hamuko 2y ago
    Destroying the gas pipeline between Estonia and Finland did take it out for like six months. I think it may have had some negative impact on Estonian electricity prices during that time.
  - pvaldes 2y ago
    Could this disturb crypto operations in any way?
    - Mistletoe 2y ago
      Not really. If the internet works, sending and using crypto works and it doesn’t use much bandwidth.
- threeseed 2y ago
  When Trump becomes President next year he is expected to demand that Ukraine settle the war with Russia or risk losing US aid and military support. It is why Russia is throwing everything at re-taking Kursk and US is now allowing long range strikes. If the EU decides to join the US the war is over and Russia will keep the occupied lands. If the EU decides to support Ukraine then because of the devastating sanctions there is a strong chance Russia loses. So it's in Russia's interest to make life as difficult as possible for Europe over the coming months in order to convince them that ending the war is in their best interest.
  - paganel 2y ago
    Russia will not stop taking its land in Kursk back because the Americans tell them to do so, this is just Western delusion, and, as I've said before on this forum, a complete misunderstanding coming from the Westerners on how Russia operates. > devastating sanctions Devastating for Europe, you mean.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
    - raverbashing 2y ago
      Neither will Ukraine try to take their territory back as much as sycophants and dictator-appeasers think Ukraine have no agency
    - suraci 2y ago
      I'm very curious, can any European here, or perhaps a German for specificity, tell me whether they believe these sanctions have harmed Russia more than Europe? Also it would be better if any Russians here could answer a similar question
      - EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 2y ago
        These consumer side sanctions are idiotic. When a Russian buys a European beer, he spends money which goes from Russia to Europe, and in addition he damages his health. On the other side, Europe buys billions of dollars of oil and gas from Russia. That money goes in the opposite direction, from Europe to Russia, and is used toward soldier salaries, Iran drones and North Korean mercenaries.
- flohofwoe 2y ago
  Assuming it was intentional, just trying the waters. Testing what the response is, who actually responds versus who's willing to sweep the incident under the carpet, how hard any response is and how quickly it happens, how much of the internet infrastructure is affected for how long, etc... etc... that's a lot of useful information as preparation for an actual attack.
  - eric-hu 2y ago
    This is really interesting how you’ve explained it. In many professional fights the competitors start matches with light, quick jabs to probe their opponents defense. This feels just like that now that you put it this way. I never connected those dots though.
    - diggan 2y ago
      Maybe it's because I'm Swedish and we've experienced Russia's "probing defenses" tactic for a very long time (mainly "breaking" into Swedish airspace with airplanes, and discovering submarines at the Swedish shores), but I always thought this was common knowledge, always interesting to learn it isn't for everyone :)
      - lifestyleguru 2y ago
        The situation escalated beyond probing, this is tit for tat response for Ukraine getting and launching US tactical missiles. Russia seems to be now aggressively monitoring and raiding the submarine pipes and cables. Blowing up of Nord Stream made Russia go ballistic.
        diggan 2y ago
        > The situation escalated beyond probing Not sure we understand "probing" differently. Russian currently is at the edges, testing the responses from things like cutting cables and otherwise interfering with the infrastructure. This is what "probing" means for me. "Beyond probing" would be actually launching attacks one way or another, which we haven't seen yet (except of course, for the Ukraine invasion).
- wqefjwpokef 2y ago
  [dead]
- krisbolton 2y ago
  While not directly addressing undersea cable sabotage this is a comprehensive open access article with case studies on 'hybrid warfare' which provides context to these types of actions. 'Shadows of power beneath the threshold: where covert action, organized crime and irregular warfare converge' - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02684527.2024.2417454 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02684527.2024.2...
- lifestyleguru 2y ago
  This is basically Russian retaliation for US providing Ukraine with ATACMS and first Ukrainian attack using ATACMS.
  - tauntz 2y ago
    The "retaliation" against US is to disrupt communications between.. Finland and Germany? Applying the same logic, Ukraine should retaliate against Russia for bombing their hospitals with an attack on.. Iranian civilian infrastructure? Did I get that right?
    - lifestyleguru 2y ago
      Russia is fighting "Western fascists" and NATO. Don't try to understand this.
      - aguaviva 2y ago
        Russia's regime pretends to be fighting those entities. It's real enemy is simply independent Ukraine with its currently recognized borders. This is entirely straighforward. Nothing that requires any struggle to understand.
- benterix 2y ago
  The ship was sailing from Russia and the captain is Russian. Using a Chinese ship is a good trick from Putin. As for the core of your question: there is no benefit, it's just his mentality. "The West" supports Ukraine so let's just do some harm, retaliate in some way. Burn some buildings here and there, plants some inflammable materials on airplanes etc. Pointless for you and me, meaningful for that guy.
  - viraptor 2y ago
    Does "Chinese ship" really mean anything here? As far as I understand the ship official registration is a very vague concept https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_convenience https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_convenience
    - emmelaich 2y ago
      and according this tweet https://x.com/erikkannike/status/1858883945607094541/history https://x.com/erikkannike/status/1858883945607094541/history "So - according to Russian federal port records, the Chinese ship suspected of cutting the communications cables in the Baltic Sea was captained by a Russian citizen (one Stechentsev A.E.). Interestingly Yui Peng 3 was only transferred to its current owner in China earlier this month. The ship is carrying goods/oil from Ust-Luga in Russia, to Port Said in Egypt. Same captain also comandeered URSUS ARCTOS also carrying goods from Ust-Luga to Egypt. Mapped using @SensusQ . "
      - pvaldes 2y ago
        Ursus arctos, the scientific name of the brown bear. The name of that ship can't be more Russian LOL
    - bluGill 2y ago
      Hard to say. They will claim this is only Flag of convenience as they are caught. However China still has the opportunity to say that this is something for their law enforcement to take care of not international, and then give the captain "a slap on the wrist". What we don't know is if China knew they were going to try this beforehand or not. Flag of Convenience is common enough that we can't be sure. This could have been planned on the high level from China and we would never know - something conspiracy theorists will run with! If China knew they would probably give the crew a sever punishment, but unofficially it is for getting caught and not doing the act. Most likely though China didn't know before hand.
- aguaviva 2y ago
  Tit-for-tat response to the NS2 bombing. Assuming it bears out that the Russian state is the perpetrator.
- nabla9 2y ago
  Russia wants to end NATO without going to war with NATO. NATO's political unity and ability to respond is tested with these attacks. Russia does them one after another gradually escalating. Russia maintains plausible deniability or does so small operations that they can always walk them back. Eventually, some country invokes Article 4 or 5 consultations. Russia hopes that US, Hungary, or Germany waters down NATO response. The conflict continues, but between individual countries not under NATO. NATOs as a organization may continue, but raison d'être is gone.
  - dylan604 2y ago
    Russia and these NATO countries being probed are like the two siblings in the back seat. Mom, he's touching me. Stop touching your brother. Mom, he's holding his finger right next to me. Dad eventually says, don't make me pull this car over and start a global thermonuclear war
    - callc 2y ago
      Humorous yet concerning that our governments act like children.
    - wbl 2y ago
      Except its always Russia instigating. We never sent someone to look at the spire of Saint Basil (the pathetic excuse offered for explaining the presence of GRU officers in Salisbury carrying out chemical warfare), or really struck at their weak points.
      - dylan604 2y ago
        Are you actually saying the US has never engaged in propaganda within another country or attempted to influence the outcomes of their elections or influence their populace to rise up against their leaders? You cannot be serious with that kind of belief
        wbl 2y ago
- huijzer 2y ago
  Prof. Stephen Kotkin — an historian who wrote multiple extensive biographies on Stalin — calls the Russian regime a "gangster regime".* Once you see them as gangsters, it's not difficult to see why they would do this. *A full link with exact timestamp of Kotkin saying this is [1]. Here he talks about why Merkel kept making oil deals with Putin even though in hindsight this was probably not the best idea. Kotkin argues that, yes, according to econ 101 trade is good for both parties, but not when the opposite party is a gangster. Merkel thought that Putin was thinking like her, but he wasn't. [1]: https://www.youtube.com/live/jJSDdCPpbto?t=4410 https://www.youtube.com/live/jJSDdCPpbto?t=4410
  - mopsi 2y ago
    It should be noted that Putin was personally an enforcer for St Petersburg's mayor Anatoly Sobchak[1] in the early 1990s, and his "circle of friends" from that time now mans key positions of the entire government. For example, Viktor Zolotov[2], Sobchak's bodyguard and Putin's judo partner, is now in charge of National Guard, despite not having qualifications for the job. Russia is literally run buy thugs who ran protection rackets not so long ago. So there's much more to this than just a fitting figure of speech. Someone from the worst parts of LA would be better equipped to understand and deal with such people than those who spent their teens and early adulthood playing Model UN at a foreign relations club. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anatoly_Sobchak https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anatoly_Sobchak [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Zolotov https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Zolotov
  - euroderf 2y ago
    One theme of cyberpunk is that Russia remains a gangster regime in the future. William Gibson's "Kombinat".
- mmooss 2y ago
  Look up 'Grey Zone Conflict': Destroying another country's assets is generally an act of war, but obviously this incident falls short of causing a war. That is the 'grey zone', a prominent feature of current international relations and a major focus of the defense of the democratic world and international order, including in the US military. The international order is often called the 'US-led rules-based interntional order'. Russia, China, and some others dislike the first element, of course. The second element refers to the legal, rules-based structure (rather than power-based anarchy, which led to the centuries or millennia of war before the 'order' was created post-WWII). Aggressive international warfare is outlawed, for example; if France and Germany have a dispute, there is no question of violence - they use a legal structure to resolve it, which wasn't always true! Grey zone activities accomplish illegal things without reprocussions. And therefore they also serve the goal of undermining the international order by demonstrating its powerlessness in these situations. In some ways, it's like trolling. Russia uses grey zone tactics heavily - for example, they used them to capture Crimea (which was before the clear act of war, their 2022 invasion). They use them to run destabilizing 'grey zone' campaigns throughout the world, including directly interfering in elections. The tactics suit Russia in particular because they cannot compete miltarily with the democratic world. China uses them too, for example using their 'coast guard' and 'civilian' 'fishing boats' to attack (up to a point) and intimidate ships from other countries in the South China Sea. If China used their navy, it would possibly be acts of war. A Chinese coast guard ship shooting water cannon at a fishing boat, though illegal in international waters, isn't going to start a war. 'Civilian' 'fishing' boats from China blockading access to a reef won't either. Edit: Before you look at Russia and China and other Grey Zone actors as miscreants, understand that it's just the normal behavior of 'revisionist' powers - those who want to change the current rules. The current rules serve the interests of the 'status quo' powers, who get all self-righteous about 'illegal' activities. In a more common situation on HN, think of IP outsiders, who break the 'rules' made by major IP holders, such as DMCA or those extending copyright for decades or restricting access to scientific knowledge - the IP holders want the status quo and call violations 'theft' and the outsiders 'criminals', etc. If the US wasn't a status quo power, they'd be doing grey zone things. (That doesn't at all justify Russia and China's goals of stealing land, oppressing people's freedoms, and solving problems through violence.)
  - 2y ago
- toast0 2y ago
  Ok there's all the signalling between states that breaking a cable has. That also works for false flag operations, or true flag operations while making it look like a false flag operation (etc). But also, cutting these cables doesn't stop communications. There are other land and undersea routes, and maybe terrestrial radio/satellite routes as well. You might damage these cables so that communications travel other routes which are more observable (or less observable). Or you might damage these cables so you can modify them elsewhere to enhance observability before they're repaired (or as part of the repair process). Or it could be a training mission for your elite squad of cable biting sharks. Lots of potential for intrigue here.
- rasz 2y ago
  Newnew shipping signed huge contract with Rosatom.
brazzy 2y ago
So according to the Bluesky thread, the ship was captained by a Russian citizen. One has to wonder whether this was done with the approval of the Chinese government, or whether the ship was just chosen by opportunity (which seems possible given that China is the second most common merchant flag). Or whether implicating China was even an explicit goal.
- whizzter 2y ago
  Russian captain, how does the ownership history of the ship look? Could be some sanction evading ship that was owned by Russian interests anyhow.
  - pantalaimon 2y ago
    It was a Russian ship until a month ago
    - jeroenhd 2y ago
      Do you have a source for that? According to https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/details/9224984 https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/details/9224984 it's been registered as Chinese since 2016. Doesn't mean its current Russian captain is serving Chinese interests, of course, but at least it seems to be Chinese owned.
- netsharc 2y ago
  For an analogy, it seems like a scrappy preteen throwing around his big brother's name, knowing that if he gets into trouble, big brother will intervene... (i.e. the European countries might be more wary about boarding a Chinese ship compared to a Russian ship, because escalating against China is scarier...).
  - _djo_ 2y ago
    Indeed. The best way to understand Russia's approach to foreign policy is that it's an extension of its mafia state-derived domestic policy, where there are no true allies and anyone brought into the circle is tainted through compromising actions to ensure they stay loyal to you. It's not dissimilar to the way criminal gangs will ensure that they have dirt on anyone joining or intentionally implicate others in order to ensure compliance.
aurareturn 2y ago
Given that ships often cut undersea internet cables and China has the biggest export economy, doesn't it make sense that the most likely country to accidentally cut an internet cable would be a Chinese trade ship? On average, it seems like undersea internet cables break 200+ times per year. For example, Vietnam's internet cables break on average 10 times per year. What would be the motivation for a Chinese trade ship to deliberately cut an internet cable? It has next to no impact on internet communication and only serves to annoy a small amount of people for a short period of time. In addition, China and Europe are trying to have a better relationship in general so it doesn't make sense for the Chinese government to order this.
- brazzy 2y ago
  I could believe that cutting one cable was an accident. But two, by the same ship, 60 miles apart? Absolutely no way this wasn't intentional.
  - DirkH 2y ago
    The question then becomes why did they do it in a way where they would be caught
- raverbashing 2y ago
  > What would be the motivation for a Chinese trade ship to deliberately cut an internet cable? The most charitable reason is that they don't give a fluck. Same reason why their rocket boosters just fall wherever they fall, population center or not Edit: https://x.com/Tendar/status/1859147985424196010 https://x.com/Tendar/status/1859147985424196010 > The skipper of the Chinese ship is a Russian national and the route leads from Ust-Luga (Russia) to Port Said (Egypt).
  - aurareturn 2y ago
    Is there any data on which country's ships cut the most internet cables? I think we need a total ships sailing for country / cuts.
yett 2y ago
Yeah and this time they won't let them get away. According to Finnish Minister of Defence: "The authorities in the Baltic Sea region have learned from the mistakes of the Baltic Connector investigation and are prepared, if necessary, to stop a ship in the Baltic Sea if it is suspected of being involved in damaging communications cables."[1] And it looks like according to marinetraffic.com that the Yi Peng 3 is indeed at full stop surrounded by at least 3 Danish navy vessels. 1. article in Finnish https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000010845324.html https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000010845324.html
- dingdingdang 2y ago
  Boarded according to: https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1859132263746744367 https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1859132263746744367
  - bananapub 2y ago
    worth noting that twitter account is not the most trustworthy or independent.
    - hersko 2y ago
      What have they posted that was wrong?
      - ceejayoz 2y ago
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visegr%C3%A1d_24#Content https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visegr%C3%A1d_24#Content details a number of cases.
        mistermann 2y ago
        It would be useful to have a site that logs all plausible issues of this kind, at arm's length from Wikipedia editors. Kind of a "Who watches the watchers?" type of thing.
cabirum 2y ago
After the Nordstream pipeline attacked and destroyed, its reasonable to expect shortened lifetimes for undersea cables and sattelites.
- trhway 2y ago
  it sounds like you've probably never seen this - tanker Minerva Julie (belonging to Putin's friends) traveling through the Baltic Sea suddenly decided to hang around for a week right at the same place where couple weeks later Nord Stream exploded: https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2023/03/16/23/68797949-11868975-Tracking_data_for_the_Minerva_Julie_shows_it_spent_around_a_week-a-69_1679009700913.jpg https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2023/03/16/23/68797949-11868975...
  - Lichtso 2y ago
    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/14/world/europe/nord-stream-explosion-germany-ukraine-arrest-warrant.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/14/world/europe/nord-stream-...
    - baybal2 2y ago
      [dead]
    - PittleyDunkin 2y ago
      https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/us-navy-was-at-scene-of-nord-stream-blasts--danish-media https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/us-navy-was-at-...
      - mcphage 2y ago
        I think it's pretty clear that the NordStream explosion was a joint US-Russia-Ukraine operation.
        credit_guy 2y ago
givemeethekeys 2y ago
The CCP thanks the expendable crew for their sacrifice. May they continue to suck the resources of their new host countries for many years to come.
aaron695 2y ago
[dead]
terrycody 2y ago
Are you there then?

by nabla9 2y ago

spongebobstoes 2y ago

What are some concrete reasons why someone would want to damage these cables? Who benefits?

Mistletoe 2y ago
It doesn’t even really stop anything right? Communications just have to route around it and use other cables and satellites. It just seems like Russia wants to be annoying.
- Hamuko 2y ago
  Destroying the gas pipeline between Estonia and Finland did take it out for like six months. I think it may have had some negative impact on Estonian electricity prices during that time.
- pvaldes 2y ago
  Could this disturb crypto operations in any way?
  - Mistletoe 2y ago
    Not really. If the internet works, sending and using crypto works and it doesn’t use much bandwidth.
threeseed 2y ago
When Trump becomes President next year he is expected to demand that Ukraine settle the war with Russia or risk losing US aid and military support. It is why Russia is throwing everything at re-taking Kursk and US is now allowing long range strikes. If the EU decides to join the US the war is over and Russia will keep the occupied lands. If the EU decides to support Ukraine then because of the devastating sanctions there is a strong chance Russia loses. So it's in Russia's interest to make life as difficult as possible for Europe over the coming months in order to convince them that ending the war is in their best interest.
- paganel 2y ago
  Russia will not stop taking its land in Kursk back because the Americans tell them to do so, this is just Western delusion, and, as I've said before on this forum, a complete misunderstanding coming from the Westerners on how Russia operates. > devastating sanctions Devastating for Europe, you mean.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - raverbashing 2y ago
    Neither will Ukraine try to take their territory back as much as sycophants and dictator-appeasers think Ukraine have no agency
  - suraci 2y ago
    I'm very curious, can any European here, or perhaps a German for specificity, tell me whether they believe these sanctions have harmed Russia more than Europe? Also it would be better if any Russians here could answer a similar question
    - EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 2y ago
      These consumer side sanctions are idiotic. When a Russian buys a European beer, he spends money which goes from Russia to Europe, and in addition he damages his health. On the other side, Europe buys billions of dollars of oil and gas from Russia. That money goes in the opposite direction, from Europe to Russia, and is used toward soldier salaries, Iran drones and North Korean mercenaries.
flohofwoe 2y ago
Assuming it was intentional, just trying the waters. Testing what the response is, who actually responds versus who's willing to sweep the incident under the carpet, how hard any response is and how quickly it happens, how much of the internet infrastructure is affected for how long, etc... etc... that's a lot of useful information as preparation for an actual attack.
- eric-hu 2y ago
  This is really interesting how you’ve explained it. In many professional fights the competitors start matches with light, quick jabs to probe their opponents defense. This feels just like that now that you put it this way. I never connected those dots though.
  - diggan 2y ago
    Maybe it's because I'm Swedish and we've experienced Russia's "probing defenses" tactic for a very long time (mainly "breaking" into Swedish airspace with airplanes, and discovering submarines at the Swedish shores), but I always thought this was common knowledge, always interesting to learn it isn't for everyone :)
    - lifestyleguru 2y ago
      The situation escalated beyond probing, this is tit for tat response for Ukraine getting and launching US tactical missiles. Russia seems to be now aggressively monitoring and raiding the submarine pipes and cables. Blowing up of Nord Stream made Russia go ballistic.
      - diggan 2y ago
        > The situation escalated beyond probing Not sure we understand "probing" differently. Russian currently is at the edges, testing the responses from things like cutting cables and otherwise interfering with the infrastructure. This is what "probing" means for me. "Beyond probing" would be actually launching attacks one way or another, which we haven't seen yet (except of course, for the Ukraine invasion).
wqefjwpokef 2y ago
[dead]
krisbolton 2y ago
While not directly addressing undersea cable sabotage this is a comprehensive open access article with case studies on 'hybrid warfare' which provides context to these types of actions. 'Shadows of power beneath the threshold: where covert action, organized crime and irregular warfare converge' - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02684527.2024.2417454 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02684527.2024.2...
lifestyleguru 2y ago
This is basically Russian retaliation for US providing Ukraine with ATACMS and first Ukrainian attack using ATACMS.
- tauntz 2y ago
  The "retaliation" against US is to disrupt communications between.. Finland and Germany? Applying the same logic, Ukraine should retaliate against Russia for bombing their hospitals with an attack on.. Iranian civilian infrastructure? Did I get that right?
  - lifestyleguru 2y ago
    Russia is fighting "Western fascists" and NATO. Don't try to understand this.
    - aguaviva 2y ago
      Russia's regime pretends to be fighting those entities. It's real enemy is simply independent Ukraine with its currently recognized borders. This is entirely straighforward. Nothing that requires any struggle to understand.
benterix 2y ago
The ship was sailing from Russia and the captain is Russian. Using a Chinese ship is a good trick from Putin. As for the core of your question: there is no benefit, it's just his mentality. "The West" supports Ukraine so let's just do some harm, retaliate in some way. Burn some buildings here and there, plants some inflammable materials on airplanes etc. Pointless for you and me, meaningful for that guy.
- viraptor 2y ago
  Does "Chinese ship" really mean anything here? As far as I understand the ship official registration is a very vague concept https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_convenience https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_convenience
  - emmelaich 2y ago
    and according this tweet https://x.com/erikkannike/status/1858883945607094541/history https://x.com/erikkannike/status/1858883945607094541/history "So - according to Russian federal port records, the Chinese ship suspected of cutting the communications cables in the Baltic Sea was captained by a Russian citizen (one Stechentsev A.E.). Interestingly Yui Peng 3 was only transferred to its current owner in China earlier this month. The ship is carrying goods/oil from Ust-Luga in Russia, to Port Said in Egypt. Same captain also comandeered URSUS ARCTOS also carrying goods from Ust-Luga to Egypt. Mapped using @SensusQ . "
    - pvaldes 2y ago
      Ursus arctos, the scientific name of the brown bear. The name of that ship can't be more Russian LOL
  - bluGill 2y ago
    Hard to say. They will claim this is only Flag of convenience as they are caught. However China still has the opportunity to say that this is something for their law enforcement to take care of not international, and then give the captain "a slap on the wrist". What we don't know is if China knew they were going to try this beforehand or not. Flag of Convenience is common enough that we can't be sure. This could have been planned on the high level from China and we would never know - something conspiracy theorists will run with! If China knew they would probably give the crew a sever punishment, but unofficially it is for getting caught and not doing the act. Most likely though China didn't know before hand.
aguaviva 2y ago
Tit-for-tat response to the NS2 bombing. Assuming it bears out that the Russian state is the perpetrator.
nabla9 2y ago
Russia wants to end NATO without going to war with NATO. NATO's political unity and ability to respond is tested with these attacks. Russia does them one after another gradually escalating. Russia maintains plausible deniability or does so small operations that they can always walk them back. Eventually, some country invokes Article 4 or 5 consultations. Russia hopes that US, Hungary, or Germany waters down NATO response. The conflict continues, but between individual countries not under NATO. NATOs as a organization may continue, but raison d'être is gone.
- dylan604 2y ago
  Russia and these NATO countries being probed are like the two siblings in the back seat. Mom, he's touching me. Stop touching your brother. Mom, he's holding his finger right next to me. Dad eventually says, don't make me pull this car over and start a global thermonuclear war
  - callc 2y ago
    Humorous yet concerning that our governments act like children.
  - wbl 2y ago
    Except its always Russia instigating. We never sent someone to look at the spire of Saint Basil (the pathetic excuse offered for explaining the presence of GRU officers in Salisbury carrying out chemical warfare), or really struck at their weak points.
    - dylan604 2y ago
      Are you actually saying the US has never engaged in propaganda within another country or attempted to influence the outcomes of their elections or influence their populace to rise up against their leaders? You cannot be serious with that kind of belief
      - wbl 2y ago
huijzer 2y ago
Prof. Stephen Kotkin — an historian who wrote multiple extensive biographies on Stalin — calls the Russian regime a "gangster regime".* Once you see them as gangsters, it's not difficult to see why they would do this. *A full link with exact timestamp of Kotkin saying this is [1]. Here he talks about why Merkel kept making oil deals with Putin even though in hindsight this was probably not the best idea. Kotkin argues that, yes, according to econ 101 trade is good for both parties, but not when the opposite party is a gangster. Merkel thought that Putin was thinking like her, but he wasn't. [1]: https://www.youtube.com/live/jJSDdCPpbto?t=4410 https://www.youtube.com/live/jJSDdCPpbto?t=4410
- mopsi 2y ago
  It should be noted that Putin was personally an enforcer for St Petersburg's mayor Anatoly Sobchak[1] in the early 1990s, and his "circle of friends" from that time now mans key positions of the entire government. For example, Viktor Zolotov[2], Sobchak's bodyguard and Putin's judo partner, is now in charge of National Guard, despite not having qualifications for the job. Russia is literally run buy thugs who ran protection rackets not so long ago. So there's much more to this than just a fitting figure of speech. Someone from the worst parts of LA would be better equipped to understand and deal with such people than those who spent their teens and early adulthood playing Model UN at a foreign relations club. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anatoly_Sobchak https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anatoly_Sobchak [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Zolotov https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Zolotov
- euroderf 2y ago
  One theme of cyberpunk is that Russia remains a gangster regime in the future. William Gibson's "Kombinat".
mmooss 2y ago
Look up 'Grey Zone Conflict': Destroying another country's assets is generally an act of war, but obviously this incident falls short of causing a war. That is the 'grey zone', a prominent feature of current international relations and a major focus of the defense of the democratic world and international order, including in the US military. The international order is often called the 'US-led rules-based interntional order'. Russia, China, and some others dislike the first element, of course. The second element refers to the legal, rules-based structure (rather than power-based anarchy, which led to the centuries or millennia of war before the 'order' was created post-WWII). Aggressive international warfare is outlawed, for example; if France and Germany have a dispute, there is no question of violence - they use a legal structure to resolve it, which wasn't always true! Grey zone activities accomplish illegal things without reprocussions. And therefore they also serve the goal of undermining the international order by demonstrating its powerlessness in these situations. In some ways, it's like trolling. Russia uses grey zone tactics heavily - for example, they used them to capture Crimea (which was before the clear act of war, their 2022 invasion). They use them to run destabilizing 'grey zone' campaigns throughout the world, including directly interfering in elections. The tactics suit Russia in particular because they cannot compete miltarily with the democratic world. China uses them too, for example using their 'coast guard' and 'civilian' 'fishing boats' to attack (up to a point) and intimidate ships from other countries in the South China Sea. If China used their navy, it would possibly be acts of war. A Chinese coast guard ship shooting water cannon at a fishing boat, though illegal in international waters, isn't going to start a war. 'Civilian' 'fishing' boats from China blockading access to a reef won't either. Edit: Before you look at Russia and China and other Grey Zone actors as miscreants, understand that it's just the normal behavior of 'revisionist' powers - those who want to change the current rules. The current rules serve the interests of the 'status quo' powers, who get all self-righteous about 'illegal' activities. In a more common situation on HN, think of IP outsiders, who break the 'rules' made by major IP holders, such as DMCA or those extending copyright for decades or restricting access to scientific knowledge - the IP holders want the status quo and call violations 'theft' and the outsiders 'criminals', etc. If the US wasn't a status quo power, they'd be doing grey zone things. (That doesn't at all justify Russia and China's goals of stealing land, oppressing people's freedoms, and solving problems through violence.)
- 2y ago
toast0 2y ago
Ok there's all the signalling between states that breaking a cable has. That also works for false flag operations, or true flag operations while making it look like a false flag operation (etc). But also, cutting these cables doesn't stop communications. There are other land and undersea routes, and maybe terrestrial radio/satellite routes as well. You might damage these cables so that communications travel other routes which are more observable (or less observable). Or you might damage these cables so you can modify them elsewhere to enhance observability before they're repaired (or as part of the repair process). Or it could be a training mission for your elite squad of cable biting sharks. Lots of potential for intrigue here.
rasz 2y ago
Newnew shipping signed huge contract with Rosatom.

brazzy 2y ago

So according to the Bluesky thread, the ship was captained by a Russian citizen. One has to wonder whether this was done with the approval of the Chinese government, or whether the ship was just chosen by opportunity (which seems possible given that China is the second most common merchant flag). Or whether implicating China was even an explicit goal.

whizzter 2y ago
Russian captain, how does the ownership history of the ship look? Could be some sanction evading ship that was owned by Russian interests anyhow.
- pantalaimon 2y ago
  It was a Russian ship until a month ago
  - jeroenhd 2y ago
    Do you have a source for that? According to https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/details/9224984 https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/details/9224984 it's been registered as Chinese since 2016. Doesn't mean its current Russian captain is serving Chinese interests, of course, but at least it seems to be Chinese owned.
netsharc 2y ago
For an analogy, it seems like a scrappy preteen throwing around his big brother's name, knowing that if he gets into trouble, big brother will intervene... (i.e. the European countries might be more wary about boarding a Chinese ship compared to a Russian ship, because escalating against China is scarier...).
- _djo_ 2y ago
  Indeed. The best way to understand Russia's approach to foreign policy is that it's an extension of its mafia state-derived domestic policy, where there are no true allies and anyone brought into the circle is tainted through compromising actions to ensure they stay loyal to you. It's not dissimilar to the way criminal gangs will ensure that they have dirt on anyone joining or intentionally implicate others in order to ensure compliance.

aurareturn 2y ago

Given that ships often cut undersea internet cables and China has the biggest export economy, doesn't it make sense that the most likely country to accidentally cut an internet cable would be a Chinese trade ship? On average, it seems like undersea internet cables break 200+ times per year. For example, Vietnam's internet cables break on average 10 times per year. What would be the motivation for a Chinese trade ship to deliberately cut an internet cable? It has next to no impact on internet communication and only serves to annoy a small amount of people for a short period of time. In addition, China and Europe are trying to have a better relationship in general so it doesn't make sense for the Chinese government to order this.

brazzy 2y ago
I could believe that cutting one cable was an accident. But two, by the same ship, 60 miles apart? Absolutely no way this wasn't intentional.
- DirkH 2y ago
  The question then becomes why did they do it in a way where they would be caught
raverbashing 2y ago
> What would be the motivation for a Chinese trade ship to deliberately cut an internet cable? The most charitable reason is that they don't give a fluck. Same reason why their rocket boosters just fall wherever they fall, population center or not Edit: https://x.com/Tendar/status/1859147985424196010 https://x.com/Tendar/status/1859147985424196010 > The skipper of the Chinese ship is a Russian national and the route leads from Ust-Luga (Russia) to Port Said (Egypt).
- aurareturn 2y ago
  Is there any data on which country's ships cut the most internet cables? I think we need a total ships sailing for country / cuts.

yett 2y ago

Yeah and this time they won't let them get away. According to Finnish Minister of Defence: "The authorities in the Baltic Sea region have learned from the mistakes of the Baltic Connector investigation and are prepared, if necessary, to stop a ship in the Baltic Sea if it is suspected of being involved in damaging communications cables."[1] And it looks like according to marinetraffic.com that the Yi Peng 3 is indeed at full stop surrounded by at least 3 Danish navy vessels. 1. article in Finnish https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000010845324.html https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000010845324.html

dingdingdang 2y ago
Boarded according to: https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1859132263746744367 https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1859132263746744367
- bananapub 2y ago
  worth noting that twitter account is not the most trustworthy or independent.
  - hersko 2y ago
    What have they posted that was wrong?
    - ceejayoz 2y ago
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visegr%C3%A1d_24#Content https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visegr%C3%A1d_24#Content details a number of cases.
      - mistermann 2y ago
        It would be useful to have a site that logs all plausible issues of this kind, at arm's length from Wikipedia editors. Kind of a "Who watches the watchers?" type of thing.

cabirum 2y ago

After the Nordstream pipeline attacked and destroyed, its reasonable to expect shortened lifetimes for undersea cables and sattelites.

trhway 2y ago
it sounds like you've probably never seen this - tanker Minerva Julie (belonging to Putin's friends) traveling through the Baltic Sea suddenly decided to hang around for a week right at the same place where couple weeks later Nord Stream exploded: https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2023/03/16/23/68797949-11868975-Tracking_data_for_the_Minerva_Julie_shows_it_spent_around_a_week-a-69_1679009700913.jpg https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2023/03/16/23/68797949-11868975...
- Lichtso 2y ago
  https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/14/world/europe/nord-stream-explosion-germany-ukraine-arrest-warrant.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/14/world/europe/nord-stream-...
  - baybal2 2y ago
    [dead]
  - PittleyDunkin 2y ago
    https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/us-navy-was-at-scene-of-nord-stream-blasts--danish-media https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/us-navy-was-at-...
    - mcphage 2y ago
      I think it's pretty clear that the NordStream explosion was a joint US-Russia-Ukraine operation.
      - credit_guy 2y ago

givemeethekeys 2y ago

The CCP thanks the expendable crew for their sacrifice. May they continue to suck the resources of their new host countries for many years to come.

aaron695 2y ago

[dead]

terrycody 2y ago

Are you there then?