6 ms·

Tech jobs are mired in a recession

54 points by jihadjihad 2y ago

Tracybrownn88 2y ago
[dead]
clintfred 2y ago
https://archive.is/zZETf https://archive.is/zZETf
sydbarrett74 2y ago
With the coming tariffs, expect it to get way worse. We could be looking at the 21st century Great Depression.
- honestAbe22 2y ago
  [dead]
- Terr_ 2y ago
  Could you elaborate on the cause-and-effect chain there? For example, do you mean tariffs will cause a general economic slowdown in the US, and firms employing software engineers will be incidentally affected along with everyone else?
  - jhickok 2y ago
    I would suspect both a general economic slowdown, and also a rebalancing of investment dollars to chase the production of widgets that we would now have incentive to produce locally.
  - sydbarrett74 2y ago
    Yes. Collateral/indirect damage via a ripple effect.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
Ancalagon 2y ago
> We have not seen the hiring slowdown everywhere Literally every field except healthcare is losing jobs according to your own data. What are you talking about?
- closeparen 2y ago
  The chart shows decline in hiring, not overall employment.
contingencies 2y ago
AI winter -> AI boom / tech winter -> social cohesion winter -> world war / peace-winter -> climate crisis / permawinter. Winter is coming.
- Ancalagon 2y ago
  isnt it permasummer?
  - curtis3389 2y ago
    neither. permaweird.
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
  I’m bearish with AI reaching the peak of the hype cycle (“this magic isn’t magic!?”) but bullish with geopolitical conflicts increasing defense investment and spending, along with global decoupling forcing investment into local supply chains. There is always money to be made with volatility, position yourself accordingly. https://www.axios.com/2024/11/14/companies-global-trade-china-trump https://www.axios.com/2024/11/14/companies-global-trade-chin...
solraph 2y ago
My take for SE roles is that it's a combination of AI giving enough gains[0] to reduce head count requirements, combined with the higher interest rates cutting off the tap of free money for startups that never really made economic sense. There's also the absolute flood of CS graduates in recent years contributing to the number of applicants. I know governments have been screaming for more STEM graduates, but I suspect the numbers are far higher than what is actually required. IMHO, the outcome of all this is that those devs who can't actually code are going to be pushed out of the SE market, and things will normalise in 12-36 months. (I say this all this sitting on the couch waiting for the results of second of three interviews after submitting my 30th application - I've literally never had to submit more than five - and that was where I didn't get poached directly.) [0] I'm not going to say it's a _massive_ gain, but even a 10-20% increase in productivity from something off the shelf like Github Co-pilot would show up in employment numbers
- mech987876 2y ago
  I've been thinking about the AI gains a lot. If individual developers became, say, 20 percent more efficient at coding, the organization would potentially see even more gains, because all of the reduction in time spent coordinating between people. I.e. a 2-man task that needed 20 man-hours of work, 8 of which hours of work were just communicating, becomes a 1-man 10 hour task. Kind of an extreme example, but communication and coordination is extremely inefficient a lot of the time!
  - creer 2y ago
    > communication and coordination is extremely inefficient a lot of the time To the point where in many places it's optimizing communication and management that might be the low lying fruit - as far as programming efficiency.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- yladiz 2y ago
  With respect to hiring, of the two points you mention - AI productivity gains for SWE and "no more free money" - I'm confident it's solely the latter, that higher interest rates cut off free money from startups, so they need to be more careful about who they hire. Additionally, there was substantial overhiring during COVID which combined with the interest rate changes lead to a lot of layoffs, and subsequently lead to the conservative hiring in a lot of companies. This leads to a lot more competition than there was previously, both to even get an interview in the first place and to get to the end with an offer. It's possible that AI may have some kind of impact on the industry too with respect to productivity, but I'd bet that it's nowhere near a 10-20% gain and it's not a factor at all in the difficulty of finding a job.
WheelsAtLarge 2y ago
I suspect that the issue arises from the fact that fewer employees are needed. There was a time when many employees were simply slacking off and doing minimal work. Employers are ensuring that this does not continue. Recently, I read that Nvidia, a company with a market value exceeding $3 trillion, has fewer than 30,000 employees. It's hard to believe. I think we are beginning to see the problems that high efficiency can bring.
- nrb 2y ago
  Anecdotally, I'm seeing the opposite. Employees are pretty badly needed but companies trying to operate as lean as possible for cashflow reasons. As interest rates decline and borrowed money becomes cheaper I expect we'll see hiring tick back up in startups/tech specifically.
  - skirmish 2y ago
    > As interest rates decline Why would they decline any further? The consensus right now is inflation will go up due to incoming administration's stated policies, and rates will go up too.
    - mejutoco 2y ago
      OP might be talking about countries other than the US.
    - nrb 2y ago
      They very well might, with the expected opposite effect. I was speaking more to the correlation of interest rates and hiring compared to "companies figured out people are lazy" as an explanation.
- n_ary 2y ago
  On the contrary, I see immense lack of devs yet every 2 months new levels of invented management hierarchy and more management. At one point, I saw 16 POs(there were 3 POs who didn’t even have a team but were running around and having coffee breaks for over a year waiting for the hypothetical teams and products to be formed) while all teams suffered from chronological lack of experienced engineers, which HR always responded with “we can’t find any devs nationwide and have started seeking over the whole EU…”. Not sure how the PO/PM/PC/AC etc continued bulking up that it almost feels like we are running a management renting shop or something.
faangguyindia 2y ago
With AI we got 10x productivity increase, people just don't know how to leverage it effectively :) After moving to India, I established an outsourcing firm catering to U.S. companies. I quickly discovered that FAANG where I worked, there was too much focus on delivering quality to the point it sucked all the joy out of working. I ran back to India and developed a coding approach I called "code slinging monkeys". Basically you iterate and try random things till it works, you pit 3 developers together - whoever meets the test case first wins, gets reward banana (which is just some cash bonus). So their salary can shoot 2-3x if they get enough bananas. AI was absolute game changer. People are driven not by collaboration (why help someone else get ahead or even have your output lost in the team? When u can dominant and compete and win and show teammates you are clearly above them in intellect) You can be verbally aggressive if that's how you get the results :) We also have a female tester who is supposed to be nice to the developer who got the most bananas. And she's passive aggressive and bitchy to ones who are bottom . The number of bananas you've define your hierarchy This way we are stimulating how things work in real world. Where people are driven by their own fear, ego, greed and how only winners are treated good. Many of the developers who worked for me still show up from time to time and and tell me what I taught them was life changing. And they avoided all the mistakes and delusions when they started with us and it helped them become very successful later on. In one of our earlier projects, we had a team consisting of three senior developers and five intermediate-level developers. However, with the advent of AI tools like Zeditor, we've significantly streamlined our processes. Now, the same work requires only one senior developer, while we've replaced the five intermediate-level developers with three AI-assisted junior developers. The senior developer focuses on writing test cases, setting up harnesses, and conducting code reviews. Meanwhile, the junior developers handle coding tasks using a trial-and-error approach, guided by feedback from the senior developer. We've observed that while junior developers often lack knowledge of best practices, they tend to be highly motivated. This is where AI proves invaluable, bridging their knowledge gaps and enabling them to deliver acceptable results. The senior developer's experience ensures major issues are avoided and provides the necessary foresight to guide the team effectively. Our work primarily involves building banking apps, pizza ordering systems, and healthcare applications for U.S. clients. This shift in team composition has not only reduced costs but also demonstrated how AI can empower less experienced developers to achieve professional outcomes. Hiring junior developers with no prior experience is not only cost-effective but also offers flexibility. Once they experience burnout, they can be replaced with fresh hires, continuing the cycle. While this approach is highly efficient and profitable for businesses, it raises concerns about its long-term impact on employee well-being and sustainability within the industry. In market, average developer is most motivated at the start of the career, it can last 3 years, 5 years or 7 years after which we fire them if their banana reward count drops. Yes there are 10x developers but they don't come cheap and come with their own ego and not like we are writing cutting edge code so why we need these SOTA developers at all?
1vuio0pswjnm7 2y ago
What happens when interest rates are nonzero and the salaries of so-called "tech jobs" with so-called "tech companies" can no longer be paid from venture capital funding, i.e., debt. When "success" is once again measured by receiving profits instead of simply by receiving investment.
game_the0ry 2y ago
Not sure how many of you went through GFC 2008-2010, but the job market for all jobs was objectively worse for all jobs (not just tech). Young people who entered the job market 2012-2022 have never felt the anxiety from a truly bad job market.
- trashface 2y ago
  I went through both 2000 and 2008. This one is far worse than either.
  - game_the0ry 2y ago
    Well I wont disagree with you, since it is possible that your experience was different than mine.
Benjaminfinn534 2y ago
[dead]

54 points by jihadjihad 2y ago

Tracybrownn88 2y ago

[dead]

clintfred 2y ago

https://archive.is/zZETf https://archive.is/zZETf

sydbarrett74 2y ago

With the coming tariffs, expect it to get way worse. We could be looking at the 21st century Great Depression.

honestAbe22 2y ago
[dead]
Terr_ 2y ago
Could you elaborate on the cause-and-effect chain there? For example, do you mean tariffs will cause a general economic slowdown in the US, and firms employing software engineers will be incidentally affected along with everyone else?
- jhickok 2y ago
  I would suspect both a general economic slowdown, and also a rebalancing of investment dollars to chase the production of widgets that we would now have incentive to produce locally.
- sydbarrett74 2y ago
  Yes. Collateral/indirect damage via a ripple effect.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

Ancalagon 2y ago

> We have not seen the hiring slowdown everywhere Literally every field except healthcare is losing jobs according to your own data. What are you talking about?

closeparen 2y ago
The chart shows decline in hiring, not overall employment.

contingencies 2y ago

AI winter -> AI boom / tech winter -> social cohesion winter -> world war / peace-winter -> climate crisis / permawinter. Winter is coming.

Ancalagon 2y ago
isnt it permasummer?
- curtis3389 2y ago
  neither. permaweird.
toomuchtodo 2y ago
I’m bearish with AI reaching the peak of the hype cycle (“this magic isn’t magic!?”) but bullish with geopolitical conflicts increasing defense investment and spending, along with global decoupling forcing investment into local supply chains. There is always money to be made with volatility, position yourself accordingly. https://www.axios.com/2024/11/14/companies-global-trade-china-trump https://www.axios.com/2024/11/14/companies-global-trade-chin...

solraph 2y ago

My take for SE roles is that it's a combination of AI giving enough gains[0] to reduce head count requirements, combined with the higher interest rates cutting off the tap of free money for startups that never really made economic sense. There's also the absolute flood of CS graduates in recent years contributing to the number of applicants. I know governments have been screaming for more STEM graduates, but I suspect the numbers are far higher than what is actually required. IMHO, the outcome of all this is that those devs who can't actually code are going to be pushed out of the SE market, and things will normalise in 12-36 months. (I say this all this sitting on the couch waiting for the results of second of three interviews after submitting my 30th application - I've literally never had to submit more than five - and that was where I didn't get poached directly.) [0] I'm not going to say it's a _massive_ gain, but even a 10-20% increase in productivity from something off the shelf like Github Co-pilot would show up in employment numbers

mech987876 2y ago
I've been thinking about the AI gains a lot. If individual developers became, say, 20 percent more efficient at coding, the organization would potentially see even more gains, because all of the reduction in time spent coordinating between people. I.e. a 2-man task that needed 20 man-hours of work, 8 of which hours of work were just communicating, becomes a 1-man 10 hour task. Kind of an extreme example, but communication and coordination is extremely inefficient a lot of the time!
- creer 2y ago
  > communication and coordination is extremely inefficient a lot of the time To the point where in many places it's optimizing communication and management that might be the low lying fruit - as far as programming efficiency.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
yladiz 2y ago
With respect to hiring, of the two points you mention - AI productivity gains for SWE and "no more free money" - I'm confident it's solely the latter, that higher interest rates cut off free money from startups, so they need to be more careful about who they hire. Additionally, there was substantial overhiring during COVID which combined with the interest rate changes lead to a lot of layoffs, and subsequently lead to the conservative hiring in a lot of companies. This leads to a lot more competition than there was previously, both to even get an interview in the first place and to get to the end with an offer. It's possible that AI may have some kind of impact on the industry too with respect to productivity, but I'd bet that it's nowhere near a 10-20% gain and it's not a factor at all in the difficulty of finding a job.

WheelsAtLarge 2y ago

I suspect that the issue arises from the fact that fewer employees are needed. There was a time when many employees were simply slacking off and doing minimal work. Employers are ensuring that this does not continue. Recently, I read that Nvidia, a company with a market value exceeding $3 trillion, has fewer than 30,000 employees. It's hard to believe. I think we are beginning to see the problems that high efficiency can bring.

nrb 2y ago
Anecdotally, I'm seeing the opposite. Employees are pretty badly needed but companies trying to operate as lean as possible for cashflow reasons. As interest rates decline and borrowed money becomes cheaper I expect we'll see hiring tick back up in startups/tech specifically.
- skirmish 2y ago
  > As interest rates decline Why would they decline any further? The consensus right now is inflation will go up due to incoming administration's stated policies, and rates will go up too.
  - mejutoco 2y ago
    OP might be talking about countries other than the US.
  - nrb 2y ago
    They very well might, with the expected opposite effect. I was speaking more to the correlation of interest rates and hiring compared to "companies figured out people are lazy" as an explanation.
n_ary 2y ago
On the contrary, I see immense lack of devs yet every 2 months new levels of invented management hierarchy and more management. At one point, I saw 16 POs(there were 3 POs who didn’t even have a team but were running around and having coffee breaks for over a year waiting for the hypothetical teams and products to be formed) while all teams suffered from chronological lack of experienced engineers, which HR always responded with “we can’t find any devs nationwide and have started seeking over the whole EU…”. Not sure how the PO/PM/PC/AC etc continued bulking up that it almost feels like we are running a management renting shop or something.

faangguyindia 2y ago

With AI we got 10x productivity increase, people just don't know how to leverage it effectively :) After moving to India, I established an outsourcing firm catering to U.S. companies. I quickly discovered that FAANG where I worked, there was too much focus on delivering quality to the point it sucked all the joy out of working. I ran back to India and developed a coding approach I called "code slinging monkeys". Basically you iterate and try random things till it works, you pit 3 developers together - whoever meets the test case first wins, gets reward banana (which is just some cash bonus). So their salary can shoot 2-3x if they get enough bananas. AI was absolute game changer. People are driven not by collaboration (why help someone else get ahead or even have your output lost in the team? When u can dominant and compete and win and show teammates you are clearly above them in intellect) You can be verbally aggressive if that's how you get the results :) We also have a female tester who is supposed to be nice to the developer who got the most bananas. And she's passive aggressive and bitchy to ones who are bottom . The number of bananas you've define your hierarchy This way we are stimulating how things work in real world. Where people are driven by their own fear, ego, greed and how only winners are treated good. Many of the developers who worked for me still show up from time to time and and tell me what I taught them was life changing. And they avoided all the mistakes and delusions when they started with us and it helped them become very successful later on. In one of our earlier projects, we had a team consisting of three senior developers and five intermediate-level developers. However, with the advent of AI tools like Zeditor, we've significantly streamlined our processes. Now, the same work requires only one senior developer, while we've replaced the five intermediate-level developers with three AI-assisted junior developers. The senior developer focuses on writing test cases, setting up harnesses, and conducting code reviews. Meanwhile, the junior developers handle coding tasks using a trial-and-error approach, guided by feedback from the senior developer. We've observed that while junior developers often lack knowledge of best practices, they tend to be highly motivated. This is where AI proves invaluable, bridging their knowledge gaps and enabling them to deliver acceptable results. The senior developer's experience ensures major issues are avoided and provides the necessary foresight to guide the team effectively. Our work primarily involves building banking apps, pizza ordering systems, and healthcare applications for U.S. clients. This shift in team composition has not only reduced costs but also demonstrated how AI can empower less experienced developers to achieve professional outcomes. Hiring junior developers with no prior experience is not only cost-effective but also offers flexibility. Once they experience burnout, they can be replaced with fresh hires, continuing the cycle. While this approach is highly efficient and profitable for businesses, it raises concerns about its long-term impact on employee well-being and sustainability within the industry. In market, average developer is most motivated at the start of the career, it can last 3 years, 5 years or 7 years after which we fire them if their banana reward count drops. Yes there are 10x developers but they don't come cheap and come with their own ego and not like we are writing cutting edge code so why we need these SOTA developers at all?

1vuio0pswjnm7 2y ago

What happens when interest rates are nonzero and the salaries of so-called "tech jobs" with so-called "tech companies" can no longer be paid from venture capital funding, i.e., debt. When "success" is once again measured by receiving profits instead of simply by receiving investment.

game_the0ry 2y ago

Not sure how many of you went through GFC 2008-2010, but the job market for all jobs was objectively worse for all jobs (not just tech). Young people who entered the job market 2012-2022 have never felt the anxiety from a truly bad job market.

trashface 2y ago
I went through both 2000 and 2008. This one is far worse than either.
- game_the0ry 2y ago
  Well I wont disagree with you, since it is possible that your experience was different than mine.

Benjaminfinn534 2y ago

[dead]