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> "it’s obvious this wasn’t an accidental anchor drop.” If it's "he who shall not be named", gotta admit, that's a clever strategy: ramp up sabotage and see ho

by rdtsc 2y ago

> "it’s obvious this wasn’t an accidental anchor drop.” If it's "he who shall not be named", gotta admit, that's a clever strategy: ramp up sabotage and see how NATO/EU will feel about their "red lines", and how well does that article 5 really work in practice. Is it worth more than the paper it's printed on? Let's find out! People have been laughing at the West crossing multiple Russian "red lines" and the Russians not doing anything. So the Russians can follow a similar route: a cable torn here, a warehouse blows up there, maybe a bank website is hacked, water supply or power station company blows up "randomly". Is anyone going to launch nuclear bombs because of that? That's absurd, of course not, yet NATO/EU just looks weak and pathetic in the process. Ideally, these countries should ramp up similar acts of sabotage on the Russian territory if they confirmed that's exactly who it is. A dam fails in Siberia, maybe the payment system goes down for a week, a submarine catches on fire while in port for repairs. Honestly I don't think they have the guts to do that. Some regimes only speak the language of power. They have to be believably threatened; calling them on phone to chat and beg for them to behave, is just showing more weakness. Scholz just called Putin. Anyone remember Macron talking with Putin for tens of hours at the start of the war? A lot of good that did. When they see a credible fist in front of their nose, that's the only way they'll stop.

azeirah 2y ago
Weak? Macron is rallying for major support. Poland is building an extremely strong army, and is having none of Russia's BS. Rutte is head of NATO now, and he has peace as his nr. 1 goal. There are so many ads for cybersecurity and military on tv here in the Netherlands. Ukraine received ATACMS (long range missiles) a while ago. This is why they are able to invade Russia back. We are "weak" because Putin has been destabilising our peaceful politics over the past 20 years. Russia isn't a fucking bear, it's a drunk wasteland with plenty natural resources, but with fucked up leadership. The Russian oligarchy is desperate, and it's showing. And yes, I _am_ mad. I am 100% going to protect the EU. What we have and what we had is beautiful, and my Russian friends and my Ukrainian friends deserve better. I am picking up math, Nix, ML, geopolitics, nature, sports and more because of these idiots in Russia. And I'm exactly what they fear most. A transgender person. I'm so, so done with Putin and Lukachenko's BS.
- wqefjwpokef 2y ago
  Warmongering 101. Ready to protect the EU and drunken wasteland at the same time. The enemy is simultaneously pathetic and an existential threat.
- rdtsc 2y ago
  > Russia isn't a fucking bear, it's a drunk wasteland with plenty natural resources, but with fucked up leadership. The Russian oligarchy is desperate, and it's showing. It doesn't matter. It attacked one of the largest countries in Europe, captured territory and is still holding it and making progress. Right under EU's nose. It can brutally throw men in the meat grinder and doesn't worry too much about it. Calling Putin like Sholz did or like Macron didn't help. Showing him a fist that's ready to strike, only that works. Anything else is showing weakness. > We are "weak" because Putin has been destabilising our peaceful politics over the past 20 years. The weakness is not accidental, they've been weaving in their agents all over the place and shaping public opinion. Now they are engaged in asymmetrical warfare. Germany has been doing deals with the Russians buying gas and oil from them. Merkel laughed at the US for being worried about it: [1] https://www.ft.com/content/aa2afe9f-0b5d-45b7-a647-cc61f6d010cf https://www.ft.com/content/aa2afe9f-0b5d-45b7-a647-cc61f6d01... > If we’d known then what we know now, we would of course have acted differently
  - azeirah 2y ago
    > The weakness is not accidental, they've been weaving their agents and shaping public opinion. Now they are engaged in asymmetrical warfare. Germany has been doing deals with the Russians buying gas and oil from them. Merkel laughed at the US for being worried about it: Yep.. When Merkel was German chancellor, I thought she was amazing. Not a big fan anymore :( > It doesn't matter. It attacked one of the largest countries in Europe, captured territory and is still holding it and making progress. Right under EU's nose. It can brutally throw men in the meat grinder and doesn't worry too much about it. Calling Putin like Sholz did or like Macron didn't help. Showing him a fist that's ready to strike, only that works. Anything else is showing weakness. Yeah. I agree. Putin is not interested in anything but power. And he doesn't listen to anything but power. Europe is slow and timid, but the impacts of ww2 are still deeply embedded in our cultural memory.
JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> yet NATO/EU just looks weak and pathetic in the process Really? Russia, with the 6th largest army in the world, had to pull in Iran and Pyongyang to not get invaded by the 13th largest [1][2]. Moscow is being a nuisance. That doesn't make NATO or Europe look weak, it makes Russia look pathetic. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_military_and_paramilitary_personnel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of... [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/13/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-kursk-offensive.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/13/world/europe/ukraine-russ...
- fuoqi 2y ago
  13th largest backed by the whole NATO and other US-aligned countries. They send almost everything they can outside of nuclear weapons, the most cutting edge military tech, and people (well, outside of a limited contingent of "advisors"). Let's be honest, without this backing the war would've ended in the first month as was drafted in Istanbul.
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > Let's be honest, without this backing the war would've ended in the first month as was drafted in Istanbul The West didn't really help Ukraine in the first month [1]. We thought the Russian army was competent and would ride into Ukraine like we did in Iraq. It wasn't until after the weakness was made apparent that aid started dripping in. Ukraine repelled a Russian invasion on its own. Our generations-old anti-air systems are downing their latest weapons. Meanwhile, our generations-old missiles are taking out their state-of-the-art systems. To the degree Russia has been able to claim any victory, it's in not being demolished. That's the standard. Not winning. Simply surviving. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_aid_to_Ukrain...
    - fuoqi 2y ago
      The West was actively supplying Ukraine since 2014, especially after the Debaltsevo embarrassment. Yes, it pales in comparison to the post 2022 levels, but it still was far from insignificant. Even your Wikipedia link lists a lot of pre-2022 aid and I am pretty sure this page is far from being comprehensive. And it's even without mentioning the direct role of Boris Johnson in tanking the Istanbul accords.
tmnvix 2y ago
Ask yourself, when was the last time a nation officially declared war? It doesn't happen anymore for legal reasons. NATO will 100% not be the first to declare war despite even very serious provocations. Maybe they'll take a leaf out of Russia or Israel's book and declare a 'special' or 'limited' operation though...
- throw310822 2y ago
  > Maybe they'll take a leaf out of Russia or Israel's book As you yourself just pointed out a few lines line above this, there's no need to take a leaf out of anybody else's book: all the US' and NATO wars of the past decades have been presented as "special operations": e.g. the war against Serbia, the war against Iraq, the war against Afghanistan, etc.
  - geniusplanmate 2y ago
    Great successes by the way!
    - fractallyte 2y ago
      NATO's operation in Serbia actually prevented an imminent genocide in Kosovo. Serbs were emboldened by their "successes" in Croatia and Bosnia, and it took that long for the EU and NATO to finally summon up enough courage to do something proactive. Comparing Russia to Serbia, the cliff of inaction seems almost insurmountable.
- rdtsc 2y ago
  > NATO will 100% not be the first to declare war despite even very serious provocations. But if it doesn't declare war, it now looks weak. That article 5 isn't worth very much all of the sudden. At the same time it's stupid to start WW3 over a village in the Baltics, a town in Romania, a cut cable or a few blown up warehouses. The Russians took the same "red line" idea and are playing it against the NATO and the EU. I can't interpret as any other way. And on one level, it sort of works. > Maybe they'll take a leaf out of Russia or Israel's book and declare a 'special' or 'limited' operation though... I'd like to believe. But remembering how much hand wringing was needed to send a few tanks to Ukraine and some F-16. Somehow, I doubt they'll be able to do anything as bold as a "special" military operation against Russia. Heck, they can't even provide air defense for Ukraine's skies. (As in use NATO's own defense systems to stop the Russians destroying apartment buildings). That's the point the Russians are providing. They are destroying NATO's reputation without even trying to too much, and I posit, so far it works.
anon84873628 2y ago
Restraint is not weak and pathetic. If you accidentally pick a fight with a BJJ fighter, hope they are a black belt instead of a purple. Or to paraphrase Vladimir Kara-Murza, democracy will come to Russia. So far the west has been better off letting Putin tie his own noose.
- rdtsc 2y ago
  > Or to paraphrase Vladimir Kara-Murza, democracy will come to Russia. So far the west has been better off letting Putin tie his own noose. Unfortunately the noose is a tie and it's soaked in Ukrainian blood so far. Of course Ukrainians should be grateful for the help they got, and no doubt they are. But they should also be worried about how little they got and based on that rate where this war will eventually end. I am afraid it will end with bleeding all of Ukraine. I wish Western leaders, especially West European leaders were more bold. Where are the Margaret Thatchers, François Mitterrands, and Helmut Kohls of yesteryear. We got milquetoast Sholzs and Macrons instead.
- TiredOfLife 2y ago
  First thing out of that russian "opposition" mouth after exchange was "Ukraine please stop resisting" and "Please stop the sanctions". There is nobody in russia to make democracy happen. Their "opposition" is just different shades of putinism.
  - anon84873628 2y ago
    While being a Putin opponent, he is also still Russian politician, and probably doesn't like seeing 1400 Russians killed on the battlefield each day.
YZF 2y ago
Putin would not be where he is without the support of China. And China has plenty of levers that the west can press without needing to do sabotage or war. 15% of China's exports go the US. EU another 15% or so. The west won the cold war without firing a shot or blowing any bridges or sinking any ships. I do agree Putin will change course if he feels he can lose power but it's not clear how pressure on Russia leads to that. He holds the country in his iron fist. He's not going to care about losing some ships or bridges as long as he thinks that he can come up ahead in the long run. He'll just use that as motivation to send even more soldiers to Ukraine and ramp up arms productions.
- cmrdporcupine 2y ago
  Despite all the shifts in China and in Chinese-Western relations in the last 10 years it remains the fact that the thing China cares about the most is commerce. If the spice stops flowing because of international warfare, China will not be happy. Which is why I think it's insane that both US political parties have made "trade war with China" a major policy plank. I think the CCP is as awful as the next person, but cutting trade now means cutting leverage later.
  - YZF 2y ago
    China has had to face no consequences for their support of Russia. What I'm saying isn't about trade war with China. It's about world order. Not that the "western" world order is ideal but it's way better than Russia or China's ideas for world order. If what you say is true then there should be no problem with China to stop supplying Russia in return for the west not cutting a similar amount of trade with them. However I think you'll be surprised to find there are things that China cares about more than commerce.

by rdtsc 2y ago

azeirah 2y ago

Weak? Macron is rallying for major support. Poland is building an extremely strong army, and is having none of Russia's BS. Rutte is head of NATO now, and he has peace as his nr. 1 goal. There are so many ads for cybersecurity and military on tv here in the Netherlands. Ukraine received ATACMS (long range missiles) a while ago. This is why they are able to invade Russia back. We are "weak" because Putin has been destabilising our peaceful politics over the past 20 years. Russia isn't a fucking bear, it's a drunk wasteland with plenty natural resources, but with fucked up leadership. The Russian oligarchy is desperate, and it's showing. And yes, I _am_ mad. I am 100% going to protect the EU. What we have and what we had is beautiful, and my Russian friends and my Ukrainian friends deserve better. I am picking up math, Nix, ML, geopolitics, nature, sports and more because of these idiots in Russia. And I'm exactly what they fear most. A transgender person. I'm so, so done with Putin and Lukachenko's BS.

wqefjwpokef 2y ago
Warmongering 101. Ready to protect the EU and drunken wasteland at the same time. The enemy is simultaneously pathetic and an existential threat.
rdtsc 2y ago
> Russia isn't a fucking bear, it's a drunk wasteland with plenty natural resources, but with fucked up leadership. The Russian oligarchy is desperate, and it's showing. It doesn't matter. It attacked one of the largest countries in Europe, captured territory and is still holding it and making progress. Right under EU's nose. It can brutally throw men in the meat grinder and doesn't worry too much about it. Calling Putin like Sholz did or like Macron didn't help. Showing him a fist that's ready to strike, only that works. Anything else is showing weakness. > We are "weak" because Putin has been destabilising our peaceful politics over the past 20 years. The weakness is not accidental, they've been weaving in their agents all over the place and shaping public opinion. Now they are engaged in asymmetrical warfare. Germany has been doing deals with the Russians buying gas and oil from them. Merkel laughed at the US for being worried about it: [1] https://www.ft.com/content/aa2afe9f-0b5d-45b7-a647-cc61f6d010cf https://www.ft.com/content/aa2afe9f-0b5d-45b7-a647-cc61f6d01... > If we’d known then what we know now, we would of course have acted differently
- azeirah 2y ago
  > The weakness is not accidental, they've been weaving their agents and shaping public opinion. Now they are engaged in asymmetrical warfare. Germany has been doing deals with the Russians buying gas and oil from them. Merkel laughed at the US for being worried about it: Yep.. When Merkel was German chancellor, I thought she was amazing. Not a big fan anymore :( > It doesn't matter. It attacked one of the largest countries in Europe, captured territory and is still holding it and making progress. Right under EU's nose. It can brutally throw men in the meat grinder and doesn't worry too much about it. Calling Putin like Sholz did or like Macron didn't help. Showing him a fist that's ready to strike, only that works. Anything else is showing weakness. Yeah. I agree. Putin is not interested in anything but power. And he doesn't listen to anything but power. Europe is slow and timid, but the impacts of ww2 are still deeply embedded in our cultural memory.

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> yet NATO/EU just looks weak and pathetic in the process Really? Russia, with the 6th largest army in the world, had to pull in Iran and Pyongyang to not get invaded by the 13th largest [1][2]. Moscow is being a nuisance. That doesn't make NATO or Europe look weak, it makes Russia look pathetic. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_military_and_paramilitary_personnel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of... [2] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/13/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-kursk-offensive.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/13/world/europe/ukraine-russ...

fuoqi 2y ago
13th largest backed by the whole NATO and other US-aligned countries. They send almost everything they can outside of nuclear weapons, the most cutting edge military tech, and people (well, outside of a limited contingent of "advisors"). Let's be honest, without this backing the war would've ended in the first month as was drafted in Istanbul.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago
  > Let's be honest, without this backing the war would've ended in the first month as was drafted in Istanbul The West didn't really help Ukraine in the first month [1]. We thought the Russian army was competent and would ride into Ukraine like we did in Iraq. It wasn't until after the weakness was made apparent that aid started dripping in. Ukraine repelled a Russian invasion on its own. Our generations-old anti-air systems are downing their latest weapons. Meanwhile, our generations-old missiles are taking out their state-of-the-art systems. To the degree Russia has been able to claim any victory, it's in not being demolished. That's the standard. Not winning. Simply surviving. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_aid_to_Ukrain...
  - fuoqi 2y ago
    The West was actively supplying Ukraine since 2014, especially after the Debaltsevo embarrassment. Yes, it pales in comparison to the post 2022 levels, but it still was far from insignificant. Even your Wikipedia link lists a lot of pre-2022 aid and I am pretty sure this page is far from being comprehensive. And it's even without mentioning the direct role of Boris Johnson in tanking the Istanbul accords.

tmnvix 2y ago

Ask yourself, when was the last time a nation officially declared war? It doesn't happen anymore for legal reasons. NATO will 100% not be the first to declare war despite even very serious provocations. Maybe they'll take a leaf out of Russia or Israel's book and declare a 'special' or 'limited' operation though...

throw310822 2y ago
> Maybe they'll take a leaf out of Russia or Israel's book As you yourself just pointed out a few lines line above this, there's no need to take a leaf out of anybody else's book: all the US' and NATO wars of the past decades have been presented as "special operations": e.g. the war against Serbia, the war against Iraq, the war against Afghanistan, etc.
- geniusplanmate 2y ago
  Great successes by the way!
  - fractallyte 2y ago
    NATO's operation in Serbia actually prevented an imminent genocide in Kosovo. Serbs were emboldened by their "successes" in Croatia and Bosnia, and it took that long for the EU and NATO to finally summon up enough courage to do something proactive. Comparing Russia to Serbia, the cliff of inaction seems almost insurmountable.
rdtsc 2y ago
> NATO will 100% not be the first to declare war despite even very serious provocations. But if it doesn't declare war, it now looks weak. That article 5 isn't worth very much all of the sudden. At the same time it's stupid to start WW3 over a village in the Baltics, a town in Romania, a cut cable or a few blown up warehouses. The Russians took the same "red line" idea and are playing it against the NATO and the EU. I can't interpret as any other way. And on one level, it sort of works. > Maybe they'll take a leaf out of Russia or Israel's book and declare a 'special' or 'limited' operation though... I'd like to believe. But remembering how much hand wringing was needed to send a few tanks to Ukraine and some F-16. Somehow, I doubt they'll be able to do anything as bold as a "special" military operation against Russia. Heck, they can't even provide air defense for Ukraine's skies. (As in use NATO's own defense systems to stop the Russians destroying apartment buildings). That's the point the Russians are providing. They are destroying NATO's reputation without even trying to too much, and I posit, so far it works.

anon84873628 2y ago

Restraint is not weak and pathetic. If you accidentally pick a fight with a BJJ fighter, hope they are a black belt instead of a purple. Or to paraphrase Vladimir Kara-Murza, democracy will come to Russia. So far the west has been better off letting Putin tie his own noose.

rdtsc 2y ago
> Or to paraphrase Vladimir Kara-Murza, democracy will come to Russia. So far the west has been better off letting Putin tie his own noose. Unfortunately the noose is a tie and it's soaked in Ukrainian blood so far. Of course Ukrainians should be grateful for the help they got, and no doubt they are. But they should also be worried about how little they got and based on that rate where this war will eventually end. I am afraid it will end with bleeding all of Ukraine. I wish Western leaders, especially West European leaders were more bold. Where are the Margaret Thatchers, François Mitterrands, and Helmut Kohls of yesteryear. We got milquetoast Sholzs and Macrons instead.
TiredOfLife 2y ago
First thing out of that russian "opposition" mouth after exchange was "Ukraine please stop resisting" and "Please stop the sanctions". There is nobody in russia to make democracy happen. Their "opposition" is just different shades of putinism.
- anon84873628 2y ago
  While being a Putin opponent, he is also still Russian politician, and probably doesn't like seeing 1400 Russians killed on the battlefield each day.

YZF 2y ago

Putin would not be where he is without the support of China. And China has plenty of levers that the west can press without needing to do sabotage or war. 15% of China's exports go the US. EU another 15% or so. The west won the cold war without firing a shot or blowing any bridges or sinking any ships. I do agree Putin will change course if he feels he can lose power but it's not clear how pressure on Russia leads to that. He holds the country in his iron fist. He's not going to care about losing some ships or bridges as long as he thinks that he can come up ahead in the long run. He'll just use that as motivation to send even more soldiers to Ukraine and ramp up arms productions.

cmrdporcupine 2y ago
Despite all the shifts in China and in Chinese-Western relations in the last 10 years it remains the fact that the thing China cares about the most is commerce. If the spice stops flowing because of international warfare, China will not be happy. Which is why I think it's insane that both US political parties have made "trade war with China" a major policy plank. I think the CCP is as awful as the next person, but cutting trade now means cutting leverage later.
- YZF 2y ago
  China has had to face no consequences for their support of Russia. What I'm saying isn't about trade war with China. It's about world order. Not that the "western" world order is ideal but it's way better than Russia or China's ideas for world order. If what you say is true then there should be no problem with China to stop supplying Russia in return for the west not cutting a similar amount of trade with them. However I think you'll be surprised to find there are things that China cares about more than commerce.