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FBI Raids Home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan
- koolba 2y agoAccording to the NY Post they came in at 6am this morning and seized his phone and other electronics: https://nypost.com/2024/11/13/business/fbi-seizes-polymarket-ceos-phone-electronics-after-betting-platform-predicts-trump-win-source/ https://nypost.com/2024/11/13/business/fbi-seizes-polymarket...
- underseacables 2y agoI think the key factor here is that the website allowed Americans to bet on the political market. Which I still don't quite understand, the FBI waiting until after the election for this. Why didn't they go after them sooner? Feels wrong.
- JumpCrisscross 2y ago> Which I still don't quite understand, the FBI waiting until after the election for this. Why didn't they go after them sooner? Because the conspiracy theorists wouldn't have gone to town if the market predicting Trump's win were shut down before the election? Polymarket hit popular imagination in the summer of 2023 with the Titan submersible [1]. American political betting didn't hit papers until earlier this year. We're well within normal FBI timelines for executing a first search. [1] https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-missing-submarine-be-found-by-june-23 https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-missing-submarine-be-f...
- bigtechennui 2y agoOne explanation is it gives Polymarket more rope to hang themselves with. Trading volume likely spiked in the lead up, and during, election night. Big numbers make for splashier headlines. Another could be concern of doing anything visibly election related prior to the election, in case the winner didn’t like the action.
- inglor_cz 2y agoWhile I understand that logic, I also find it a bit distasteful. Law enforcement shouldn't tolerate crimes being committed on its watch any longer than necessary. Of course, the exact meaning of "necessary" is the problem. We can probably all agree that letting a serial murderer kill more people in order to have more evidence against him would be an absolute abomination. But the situation is not that clear with white-collar crime, especially the sort of crime where the harm is not immediately obvious. Maybe the fact that the FBI could wait that long before pouncing indicates that this sort of betting is, in fact, a victimless crime.
- dopamean 2y agoThey probably have a different definition of what is "necessary" than you. If waiting for further crimes to be committed makes the case more of a sure thing in their eyes) then it's necessary. Or if it gives them more serious crimes to prosecute or a higher up person to prosecute. I believe this is common in organized crime investigations.
- _DeadFred_ 2y agoThe wheels of justice move slowly, and for good reason. I'm confused what your point is? Is it when cops/prosecutors build cases that take time they are tacitly saying the crime is victimless? Do you think law enforcement should only target street level dealers/car thieves because to spend time building cases against drug distributors/chop shops renders the crime victimless?
- standardUser 2y ago> Law enforcement shouldn't tolerate crimes being committed on its watch any longer than necessary. That is simply not how it works and for good reason. If it were, imagine the consequences. Most charges would never lead to a trial or a conviction because law enforcement would have acted on the very first sign of criminal action instead of investigating further or working their way up the chain. We'd only end up arresting low level foot soldiers and the higher ups would get away every single time.
- legitster 2y agoShutting them down before the election would have been much, much, much worse.
- csours 2y agohttps://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/what-does-the-60-day-rule-require https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/what-does-the-60-day-ru... https://www.justice.gov/jm/jm-9-85000-protection-government-integrity#9-85.500 https://www.justice.gov/jm/jm-9-85000-protection-government-... > " Any action likely to raise an issue or the perception of an issue under this provision requires consultation with the Public Integrity Section, and such action shall not be taken if the Public Integrity Section advises that further consultation is required with the Deputy Attorney General or Attorney General. " Don't get stuck in a framing story.
- scottyah 2y agoRobinhood launched a new feature where we could bet on the presidential candidate. I've heard of a couple others too, so I think that laws were created and funded by competitors, and they defined what was legal in a way that excluded polymarket. I think in this case, polymarket allows betting on anything, competitors got betting on the election legalized (https://www.barrons.com/news/last-minute-legal-ruling-allows-betting-on-us-election-afdbb600 https://www.barrons.com/news/last-minute-legal-ruling-allows...), so they get the cash from polymarket's idea then get them banned/stopped long enough to take their market share. VC's call it Regulatory Capture, politicians call it corruption.
- aiforecastthway 2y agoPolymarket could've easily registered as an exchange at any point in the last 4+ years, and then itself filed the suit that its competitors filed. Instead they chose to just ignore the law. > VC's call it Regulatory Capture This isn't regulatory capture. You can disagree with the regulation, but the barrier to entry here is not that high. Kalshi is like 5 years old. "Capture" is a thing, and it does not just mean "any regulation that I happen to disagree with". You do need capital to stand up a regulated exchange, but, then, you also need capital to stand up an unregulated exchange. And the difference between those two numbers is not nearly big enough to come anywhere close to creating capture.
- scottyah 2y agoYou're right, I had been using a definition of regulatory capture that doesn't really fit what I'm seeing when I look it up. I learned it to mean capture of market share through regulation, either by getting your competitors banned, forced creation of consumers through law (like car seats/helmets/paper straws). Maybe someone knows what that is called? Instead, it means regulatory agencies become dominated by the interests of those they were originally charged to regulate. I still speculate this raid to be Kalshi/Robinhood/whomever to be going after polymarket at a prime time- the concept of betting on events got huge and the industry of event-hedging directly (avoiding the stock market proxy) no longer needs to band together to get the idea out- now it's a matter of getting all the consumers to choose your particular product vs a competitors.
- legitster 2y agoObviously there are no details yet, but I suspect it's as simple as: - Polymarket is still very illegal in the US - Lol. We all know it's easy to get around that - If the CEO knew or was complicit in US citizens breaking laws, he could be in trouble. And if there was evidence he was encouraging it, he could be in big trouble
- herpderperator 2y agoCan someone explain to me how this is? It's a company HQ'd in New York, but it's not allowed to do business in the very country it's HQ'd in? What am I missing?
- vinay427 2y agoAs I understand it (very much not a lawyer), the company complies with US laws by not allowing people in the US to use it, so there’s no issue doing business.
- n2d4 2y agoYou're not missing anything — that's exactly how it is. There's nothing that stipulates that US companies must sell to other US companies, and it's a great place for investments & startups, so even if Polymarket isn't licensed to operate in the US it still makes sense for them to be there.
- Sebb767 2y ago> and it's a great place for investments & startups, so even if Polymarket isn't licensed to operate in the US it still makes sense for them to be there. Well, maybe for startups in general, but it apparently didn't work out for Polymarket. Also, it's probably a better case if you're just not targeting US customers, rather than being actually forbidden from trading with US customers.
- joecool1029 2y agoIt was like this for fireworks in the past too. Used to go to Pennsylvania where it used to be illegal for PA residents to purchase them, they'd check your drivers license when you came in to validate it was from elsewhere and issue a 24hr transport permit to get it out of the state. Naturally the fireworks shops were mostly near state borders.
- kwisatzh 2y agoHe’ll get pardoned. It’s a Thiel company.
- galleywest200 2y agoAccepting a presidential pardon requires an admission of guilt. Would being a confirmed criminal aide them in business in any way?
- stickfigure 2y agoIncorrect. A pardon does require a conviction, however. And it will probably never get that far.
- CodeWriter23 2y agoIncorrect. There is no requirement that even an indictment has occurred in the past.
- dgfitz 2y ago"I hereby pardon you for murder. Nope, you didn't murder anyone, and you haven't been indited on murder charges!" Technically sure, you're correct. The worst kind of correct.
- beejiu 2y agoCan we please stop calling them "prediction markets". This only legitimizes what they really are, "gambling exchanges".
- nickff 2y agoI am not familiar with the term 'gambling exchange', where'd you get it? Many 'sportsbooks' are referred to as 'betting exchanges', but that has become something of a term of art, much like the term 'prediction market'. In any case, attempting to use a derogatory or denigrating euphemism to refer to something is usually less productive than simply exposing (what you perceive to be) its faults. What specific issues do you have with these markets/exchanges?
- troad 2y agoNot GP, but I suspect it's the gambling part? Hence the name? Gambling is a destructive addition that the vast majority of participants cannot manage well. It harms not only them, but their children and their spouses. How many a kid's college fund has gone up in smoke? A lot of harm is done to very innocent people in pursuit of a ten second rush. (Much like all other addictions.) I also very respectfully disagree that inventing a name for something is not productive - it's incredible effective, in fact. That's why political campaigns often favour duelling names over hot button issues: it's easier to win broad based support from soccer moms and football dads for 'marriage equality', whereas 'homosexual marriage' may be a harder sell. See also 'medicare for all' versus 'socialized medicine', 'pro-choice' v 'pro-life' etc.
- caeril 2y agoThese markets are no more "gambling" than other markets are. A traditional sportsbook maintains a house vig anywhere from 5 to 15%, which is, indeed, a pretty fast path to ruin. They typically don't allow you to exit your position once you're committed. Polymarket's sports markets, in contrast, have comparable bid/ask spreads to financial markets (maybe slightly wider), and the market is liquid such that you can sell your contract to someone else whenever you want.
- alsetmusic 2y ago[flagged]
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- neilv 2y ago> "This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election," a Polymarket spokesperson tells Axios. When I saw that statement, from a company spokesperson, it was striking. Is it now respectable and advisable for a corporation to make official statements like this?
- lupusreal 2y agoRespectable is subjective. Advisable? If they're probably guilty then appealing to the biases of the incoming administration is probably a good idea. On the other hand, if they're innocent and their accusation of bias is accurate, then saying as much is probably a good idea too.
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- iAMkenough 2y agoIf the bar for decorum is the President-elect, then yes this would be considered an acceptable statement.
- ronsor 2y agoCorporations have been making these kinds of statements for almost the past decade.
- PittleyDunkin 2y agoHave corporations ever not played the "aggrieved victim" card?
- ronsor 2y agoThe social/political appeal part is the new part. Companies have always released "we did nothing wrong" statements.
- Imnimo 2y ago>This is obvious political retribution by the outgoing administration against Polymarket for providing a market that correctly called the 2024 presidential election I don't even understand what the conspiracy theory is here. Why would that be something the Biden administration would seek retribution for? And even it were, how would they possibly achieve it before the new administration takes office?
- ConSeannery 2y agoI'm also confused, but I'd imagine that if Trump lost the election and betting sentiment on polymarket predicted strongly that Trump would win, it could be used as further "proof" that fraud occurred and that the democrats stole the election. Polymarket probably thinks that the Biden administration is angry with them for showing how the population truly feels as all other sources are obviously corrupt /s
- josu 2y agoPolymarket is crypto adjacent, and the current administration has been going against the whole crypto ecosystem. I don't think it's just about predicting that Trump would win. https://bitcoinmagazine.com/print/operation-choke-point-2-0-how-u-s-regulators-fight-bitcoin-with-financial-censorship- https://bitcoinmagazine.com/print/operation-choke-point-2-0-...
- WillPostForFood 2y agoThe conspiracy theory is that Polymarket was rigged by nefarious forces to promote Donald Trump. It was widely promulgated in the mainstream press* leading up to the election. If you view Polymarket as an illegitimate tool used to help put a dictator in the White House, not surprising the the party being being replaced would attack it. * E.g. the New Yorker, "Polymarket has seen a recent surge in pro-Trump election bets. Is it the movement of a rational market or a concerted campaign?" or Newsweek, "Polymarket Prediction Platform Possibly Manipulated to Favor Trump"
- brookst 2y agoSo why not raid the corporate offices too? Why, out of all of the people and organizations involved, just the CEO? The FBI is quite good at serving multiple warrants in multiple locations at the same time when pursuing conspiracies. Presumably, in the scenario where they are the conspiracy, they could do just as well. It doesn't seem like a great conspiracy theory to explain what actually happened.
- daft_pink 2y agoIt’s sad that something based on the Wisdom of Crowds by James Surowiecki is being politicized as gambling. It’s crucial that we have prediction markets so that we can better understand the risks of things happening in our world.
- aiforecastthway 2y ago1. We do have prediction markets -- Kalshi, IB, and Robinhood all offered binary options contracts on election outcomes this year. 2. A ton of options trading is gambling, and binary options on events particularly so. Doesn't mean it should be illegal, of course, but I think that's just a facially obvious truth that we should all be honest with one another about.
- tachash1 2y ago[flagged]
- cperkins 2y agoIf this were aimed at Polymarket and their betting activities, then their lawyers would be getting subpoenas and the like, and a raid on their president would most likely be in concert with raids on their offices. AFAICT, it was only his person targeted. That the FBI raided the home of an individual most likely means a criminal investigation of that person, for a federal crime or a crime that crosses state boundaries.
- cft 2y agohttps://x.com/disclosetv/status/1856841521334816928 https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1856841521334816928 they are investigating Polymarket itself
- 1propionyl 2y agoIt is 2024... how are people still credulously using DiscloseTV as a source? It's not about political inclination but rather that there's no reason to keep trusting a source that has lied repeatedly, sensationalized repeatedly, and seems to have a very loose relationship with being "journalism" rather than entertainment (bait).
- cft 2y agoWhat about Bloomberg? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/polymarket-investigated-by-doj-for-letting-us-users-bet-on-platform https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/polymarke...
- NotYourLawyer 2y agoI mean. People still read the Washington Post!
- cyanydeez 2y agoIts 2024, Donald trump is president elect backed by "geniuses" of silicon valley
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- paulsutter 2y agoThe most likely explanation is that the issue is not election related (for example, they knowingly allowed US bettors), but that they waited until after the election to avoid even the appearance of interfering in the election
- WiSaGaN 2y agoI thought thid would happen when I see Kalshi launched an almost exact copy of Polymarket but claiming following US laws. This will follow the path of Binance.
- bastloing 2y agoThat looks interesting
- underseacables 2y agoWe clearly don't have enough information about what went down, but betting on political outcomes should be legal. In my opinion, at least. If you can bet on a sports game, you should be allowed to bet on an election.
- nomilk 2y agoAs a former user of in-trade and more recently of poly market, it is so annoying that there are laws against these sites. They serve an incredibly important function: letting people learn what’s happening in the world around us by observing a single number (e.g. % win probability). I most receently used the site yesterday to see what the incumbent Australian government’s reelection chances are after they tabled ‘ID and age requirements to use social media’ laws, but polymarket didn’t seem to have Australian politics odds, so I was left using oddschecker, which is inferior due to the annoying way it displays odds and it not storing historical data.
- Terr_ 2y ago> letting people learn what's happening in the world around us I think that phrasing is a bit too optimistic. Even in cases where the "prediction" cannot influence the outcome, the primary "learning about the world" involves the imputed opinions of bettors. Betting at horse-races doesn't teach you nearly as much about horses as actually going to the stables. :P
- seizethecheese 2y agoThese imputed opinions tend to do a better job than traditional news. On election night, polymarket was ahead of the news channels every step of the way. Edit: to be clear, I’m referring to polymarket essentially “calling” each swing state well before the networks did. I’m not just referring to the overall outcome.
- galleywest200 2y agoI am not sure what that has to do with calling elections. The Associated Press calls who wins, not some random person with $5 to throw away.
- jpadkins 2y agoThe AP does not in fact call who wins. They publish their opinion, some people trust the AP to be accurate (or not!). The election is only "called" when all the states have certified their results and the US Congress has accepted those certifications. That happens early in the new year.
- BurningFrog 2y agoFor context, the Biden administration has systematically harassed crypto startups these 4 years. Typically they get "debanked" without explanation, and it's really hard to run a startup without a bank account... This podcast with a16z co-founders Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz tells the stories: https://youtu.be/g4jWb-0nj44?si=_hK92xyF56lG0ezd&t=100 https://youtu.be/g4jWb-0nj44?si=_hK92xyF56lG0ezd&t=100
- ChrisArchitect 2y agoEarlier: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42129791 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42129791
- which 2y agoI still don't understand the Polymarket business model. Why take the legal risk of $3 billion in volume as an unlicensed commodities exchange if you're not even going to get paid for it? 1% would be $30,000,000!
- kragen 2y agoIdealism, probably. The objective of prediction markets is to improve the collective cognitive capacity of humankind (see Earthweb for a science-fiction exposition of this by way of a rather heavy-handed plot device). Certain people are willing to take great risks to achieve things like that, maybe including Coplan, who I'm not personally acquainted with. See Alex Tabarrok's triumphant take from before the raid: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/11/prediction-markets-for-the-win.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/11/pr... Here's an interesting question. We know that if a bettor in a prediction market wants to manipulate the market's prediction, it's likely to be extremely costly for them (though Théo's big bet on Polymarket seems to have shifted it a lot, so maybe we should doubt this theory). Does the operator of a prediction market have less-costly ways to manipulate the prediction? Other than just shutting down the market permanently on Election Day, Mt. Gox style, which is an extremely profitable scam whether you manipulated the predictions or not.
- FactKnower69 2y ago[flagged]
- kragen 2y ago[flagged]
- vasco 2y agoI disagree, I think you paint gambling in a way too positive light. We're not using prediction markets to bet on how much % of silica is in some rock a Mars rover finds, or to bet on the topology of a folding protein. This is gambling and whoever thinks this gambling is any more profound than other kinds is going to find out sooner or later. By your yardstick, humanity is learning the outcome of sports events ahead of them happening and this is a profound world wide tool for the advancement of humanity. For me it's gambling, for that other guy too. Switching "sports event" for "election" doesn't make it more profound. And people will still kill themselves when they are at the end of the gambling spiral.
- perrygreen98 2y ago[flagged]
- codezero 2y agoI don’t know if it’s related to this but as a user i ran into this: I make an account from a US IP. I can’t make a bet. I use a VPN, while still logged into the same account. I can make a bet. It’s possible that simple IP geo-fences aren’t considered “good enough” to avoid KYC if other information is available (prior IP address or even just IP at signup)
- blackeyeblitzar 2y agoDang - can comments from the previously flagged discussion be merged in? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42129791 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42129791
- hnburnsy 2y agoNo commentary here just found it interesting that Mark Cuban recently said he was an investor in Polymarket.
- aio2 2y agodaddy cuban's everywhere
- creatonez 2y agoGood? These gambling machines are predatory and destructive institutions and needed to be shut down a long time ago. Everything a casino touches turns into hyper-capitalistic dystopia, they are the wealthy elites' worst exploitation, distilled and refined into a poison. And now they are trying to play with society from the top-down by rebranding as "prediction markets for everything", not only pretending to sell a crystal ball but also setting up the incentives for those at the top of the financial system to destroy society and bet on the destruction of society at the same time. I say: shatter their poker chips, dissolve the house, don't allow them to accumulate any more of this type of power.
- deely3 2y agoYou actually have no idea how Polymarket works, right?
- creatonez 2y agoWhy would you think I don't know how it works? Because I'm calling it a gambling machine and not hyping it up as a prediction market? Is it somehow different from all of the new sports betting sites that have wreaked havoc through the sports industry in a very short span of time? Don't fall for their dumb marketing, it's letting them spread poison.