4 ms·

A couple of years ago, a dipshit moron in the US Army leaked a bunch of top secret documents on Discord, mostly related to the Ukrainian war. The thing is, the

A couple of years ago, a dipshit moron in the US Army leaked a bunch of top secret documents on Discord, mostly related to the Ukrainian war. The thing is, these documents were kinda bad. The information in them was not any better than the work of open source intelligence, and analyses were as good (bad) as that of many armchair analysts. So it's no wonder that spy agencies are getting left behind.

stonethrowaway 2y ago
Well don’t leave us hanging, what did the documents reveal?
- r721 2y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_Pentagon_document_leaks#Contents https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_Pentagon_doc...
  - Modified3019 2y ago
    Oh, the thugshaker incident. Now I remember.
- tourmalinetaco 2y ago
  Their post is somehow even worse quality than the stuff they’re complaining about. To answer your question, a lot of the documents were vehicle/weapon data, thickness of armor plates of tanks and such. Specifically regarding what is best searched as “War Thunder Discord leaks”, as it was, supposedly, a bunch of War Thunder players trying to one-up each other on how knowledgeable they were on military hardware. Some of them (there were a good handful over the years) are detailed here: https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?l=polish&id=2924096000 https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?l=polish...
  - neaden 2y ago
    War Thunder are to my knowledge the only game studio who have had to publicly tell their fans not to send them classified material in order to advocate for a balance change.
    - cyberax 2y ago
      Russia: pls nerf F35, it's too OP.
- red-iron-pine 2y ago
  This was the Thugshaker incident where an an AF reservist released a bunch of crap online for clout. Takeaways from the wiki link that was posted: Battle of Bakhmut: Late February 2023: Russian flanking maneuvers near Bakhmut, Ukrainian military discussions on response, and supply shortages. February 25: Ukrainian forces nearly encircled; low morale among soldiers. Kyrylo Budanov described the situation as “catastrophic”; offered to deploy elite units to safeguard the supply line. Deployment of reinforcements, including elite units, prevented encirclement but depleted seasoned forces needed for the spring counter-offensive. Casualty Estimates: Documents cover U.S.-provided military resources, Pentagon estimates on casualties, and Ukraine’s planned counteroffensive. U.S. estimates: 189,500 to 223,000 Russian casualties, 124,500 to 131,000 Ukrainian casualties. Soldiers killed in action: 15,500 to 17,500 Ukrainian, 35,500 to 43,000 Russian. Significant casualties for Spetsnaz GRU due to their use in the war. Russian Military Planning: Russian General Staff plans to counter NATO-provided tanks, including paying soldiers who destroy NATO tanks. U.S. aware of Russian plans to destroy a hangar containing drones near Odesa. Russia–NATO Aircraft Encounters and Near Shootdown: September 2022: Russian fighter jet nearly shot down a British surveillance plane off Crimea. Incident disclosed by Ben Wallace in October; involved two Sukhoi Su-27 jets, one firing a missile at the Rivet Joint. Potential NATO response if the missile had hit the plane. Document details other encounters with Russian jets, including the 2023 Black Sea drone incident. French and British reconnaissance flights between the near-shootdown and February 26, 2023. U.S. defense officials stated the Russian pilot misunderstood commands from a radar operator. Weapons Use by Ukraine: Ukraine’s air defense (S-300 and Buk missile systems) expected to be depleted by May. Documents refer to Ukraine using weapons within Russia; Zelenskyy suggested UAV strikes in Rostov Oblast. Potential increase in Chinese aid to Russia if Ukraine strikes within Russia. Exposure of LAPIS, an advanced satellite system used by the Ukrainian military. Proposed “Combat Power Build” of 9 planned brigades supplied by the U.S. and allies. Weapons Use by Russia: Russia attempted to disrupt Starlink systems provided by SpaceX to Ukraine. Western Special Forces: List of countries with special forces in Ukraine: UK (50), Latvia (17), France (15), U.S. (14), Netherlands (1). U.S. special forces at the U.S. embassy in Kyiv for VIP security and oversight of U.S. equipment and supplies.
martinky24 2y ago
Any source for the "not any better than the work of open source intelligence" part?
- l33t7332273 2y ago
  I think it’s GP’s own evaluation
- cyberax 2y ago
  I'm following the war pretty closely, and the documents basically added no real analysis compared to the open source intelligence community (Christo Grozev, Conflict Intelligence Team, Oryx). E.g. their analysis of Wagner group was inferior to the one published by investigative journalists.
vjulian 2y ago
I’d prefer a neutral account. In conclusion, is it fair to say that the leak was a breach of US protocol or law and was publicly-available information?
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
JumpCrisscross 2y ago
> information in them was not any better than the work of open source intelligence Now look at the dates on those documents. Big difference between knowing the Japanese fleet is off Pearl Harbor at 7AM versus 8:01.
- cyberax 2y ago
  They did not reveal anything new in particular. To be clear, CIA and other agencies probably have HUMINT sources that are still ahead of the open source intelligence. Their SIGINT is likely still ahead as well, although even that advantage is fading. During the Ukrainian conflict, we were able to track the activities of the armies by using NASA's publicly available infrared brush fire tracker satellites (FIRMS - https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:24hrs;@38.1,48.0,8.2z https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:24hrs;@38.1,48.0... ). And you can literally pay $100 and get a picture of any area on the planet, with a resolution that is good enough to track vehicles.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
tolerance 2y ago
I don't understand why your comment is being retrieved so unpopularily thus far. The decline in quality that you're describing not withstanding, I'm not surprised that private intelligence companies are on the rise as opposed to state agencies. I reckon that won't be for long though and that eventually any distinction between the two will be nominal.
- ImPostingOnHN 2y ago
  > I'm not surprised that private intelligence companies are on the rise as opposed to state agencies Me, neither. The private sector almost universally pays more for top talent, so much of the top talent will go there. It's also probably a better culture. As more government agencies outsource intelligence (and consequently, decision-making) to the private sector, companies like Palantir and OpenAI will become even more the de-facto government than they already are.
  - sudoshred 2y ago
    This is a feature of capitalism, nothing to see here.
  - tolerance 2y ago
    > As more government agencies outsource intelligence (and consequently, decision-making) to the private sector, companies like Palantir and OpenAI will become even more the de-facto government than they already are. This is basically what I was alluding to. The stage is set all too well for this not to occur.
    - kridsdale1 2y ago
      I predict we’ll head to a Holy Roman Empire or Snow Crash style of federated fragmented powers that in aggregate we can call The United States but in reality it’s a bunch of jockeying nobles and oligarchs. Maybe it always was, and the US Revolution was to allow this by tearing down unitary monarch power.
      - 2y ago

stonethrowaway 2y ago

Well don’t leave us hanging, what did the documents reveal?

r721 2y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_Pentagon_document_leaks#Contents https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_Pentagon_doc...
- Modified3019 2y ago
  Oh, the thugshaker incident. Now I remember.
tourmalinetaco 2y ago
Their post is somehow even worse quality than the stuff they’re complaining about. To answer your question, a lot of the documents were vehicle/weapon data, thickness of armor plates of tanks and such. Specifically regarding what is best searched as “War Thunder Discord leaks”, as it was, supposedly, a bunch of War Thunder players trying to one-up each other on how knowledgeable they were on military hardware. Some of them (there were a good handful over the years) are detailed here: https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?l=polish&id=2924096000 https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?l=polish...
- neaden 2y ago
  War Thunder are to my knowledge the only game studio who have had to publicly tell their fans not to send them classified material in order to advocate for a balance change.
  - cyberax 2y ago
    Russia: pls nerf F35, it's too OP.
red-iron-pine 2y ago
This was the Thugshaker incident where an an AF reservist released a bunch of crap online for clout. Takeaways from the wiki link that was posted: Battle of Bakhmut: Late February 2023: Russian flanking maneuvers near Bakhmut, Ukrainian military discussions on response, and supply shortages. February 25: Ukrainian forces nearly encircled; low morale among soldiers. Kyrylo Budanov described the situation as “catastrophic”; offered to deploy elite units to safeguard the supply line. Deployment of reinforcements, including elite units, prevented encirclement but depleted seasoned forces needed for the spring counter-offensive. Casualty Estimates: Documents cover U.S.-provided military resources, Pentagon estimates on casualties, and Ukraine’s planned counteroffensive. U.S. estimates: 189,500 to 223,000 Russian casualties, 124,500 to 131,000 Ukrainian casualties. Soldiers killed in action: 15,500 to 17,500 Ukrainian, 35,500 to 43,000 Russian. Significant casualties for Spetsnaz GRU due to their use in the war. Russian Military Planning: Russian General Staff plans to counter NATO-provided tanks, including paying soldiers who destroy NATO tanks. U.S. aware of Russian plans to destroy a hangar containing drones near Odesa. Russia–NATO Aircraft Encounters and Near Shootdown: September 2022: Russian fighter jet nearly shot down a British surveillance plane off Crimea. Incident disclosed by Ben Wallace in October; involved two Sukhoi Su-27 jets, one firing a missile at the Rivet Joint. Potential NATO response if the missile had hit the plane. Document details other encounters with Russian jets, including the 2023 Black Sea drone incident. French and British reconnaissance flights between the near-shootdown and February 26, 2023. U.S. defense officials stated the Russian pilot misunderstood commands from a radar operator. Weapons Use by Ukraine: Ukraine’s air defense (S-300 and Buk missile systems) expected to be depleted by May. Documents refer to Ukraine using weapons within Russia; Zelenskyy suggested UAV strikes in Rostov Oblast. Potential increase in Chinese aid to Russia if Ukraine strikes within Russia. Exposure of LAPIS, an advanced satellite system used by the Ukrainian military. Proposed “Combat Power Build” of 9 planned brigades supplied by the U.S. and allies. Weapons Use by Russia: Russia attempted to disrupt Starlink systems provided by SpaceX to Ukraine. Western Special Forces: List of countries with special forces in Ukraine: UK (50), Latvia (17), France (15), U.S. (14), Netherlands (1). U.S. special forces at the U.S. embassy in Kyiv for VIP security and oversight of U.S. equipment and supplies.

martinky24 2y ago

Any source for the "not any better than the work of open source intelligence" part?

l33t7332273 2y ago
I think it’s GP’s own evaluation
cyberax 2y ago
I'm following the war pretty closely, and the documents basically added no real analysis compared to the open source intelligence community (Christo Grozev, Conflict Intelligence Team, Oryx). E.g. their analysis of Wagner group was inferior to the one published by investigative journalists.

vjulian 2y ago

I’d prefer a neutral account. In conclusion, is it fair to say that the leak was a breach of US protocol or law and was publicly-available information?

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

> information in them was not any better than the work of open source intelligence Now look at the dates on those documents. Big difference between knowing the Japanese fleet is off Pearl Harbor at 7AM versus 8:01.

cyberax 2y ago
They did not reveal anything new in particular. To be clear, CIA and other agencies probably have HUMINT sources that are still ahead of the open source intelligence. Their SIGINT is likely still ahead as well, although even that advantage is fading. During the Ukrainian conflict, we were able to track the activities of the armies by using NASA's publicly available infrared brush fire tracker satellites (FIRMS - https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:24hrs;@38.1,48.0,8.2z https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:24hrs;@38.1,48.0... ). And you can literally pay $100 and get a picture of any area on the planet, with a resolution that is good enough to track vehicles.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

tolerance 2y ago

I don't understand why your comment is being retrieved so unpopularily thus far. The decline in quality that you're describing not withstanding, I'm not surprised that private intelligence companies are on the rise as opposed to state agencies. I reckon that won't be for long though and that eventually any distinction between the two will be nominal.

ImPostingOnHN 2y ago
> I'm not surprised that private intelligence companies are on the rise as opposed to state agencies Me, neither. The private sector almost universally pays more for top talent, so much of the top talent will go there. It's also probably a better culture. As more government agencies outsource intelligence (and consequently, decision-making) to the private sector, companies like Palantir and OpenAI will become even more the de-facto government than they already are.
- sudoshred 2y ago
  This is a feature of capitalism, nothing to see here.
- tolerance 2y ago
  > As more government agencies outsource intelligence (and consequently, decision-making) to the private sector, companies like Palantir and OpenAI will become even more the de-facto government than they already are. This is basically what I was alluding to. The stage is set all too well for this not to occur.
  - kridsdale1 2y ago
    I predict we’ll head to a Holy Roman Empire or Snow Crash style of federated fragmented powers that in aggregate we can call The United States but in reality it’s a bunch of jockeying nobles and oligarchs. Maybe it always was, and the US Revolution was to allow this by tearing down unitary monarch power.
    - 2y ago