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> What if gpt5 is vaporware, and there’s no equivalent 3 to 4 leap to be realized with current deep learning architectures? Sam Altman himself doesn't know whe

> What if gpt5 is vaporware, and there’s no equivalent 3 to 4 leap to be realized with current deep learning architectures? Sam Altman himself doesn't know whether it's the case. Nobody knows. It's the natural of R&D. If you can tell whether an architecture works or not with 100% confidence it's not cutting edge.

barrell 2y ago
Sam Altman has explicitly said the next model will be an even bigger jump than between 3 and 4. I think that was before 4o? I know 4o-mini and o1 for sure have come out since he said that
- deleted 2y ago
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- MOARDONGZPLZ 2y ago
  > Sam Altman has explicitly said the next model will be an even bigger jump than between 3 and 4. You say unironically on an article stating that Sam Altman cannot be taken at his word in a string of comments about him hyping up the next thing so he can exit strongly on the backs of the next greater fool. But seriously, I’m sure GPT-5 will be the greatest leap in history (OpenAI equity holder here).
patcon 2y ago
> Nobody knows. I suspect it's a little different. AI models are still made of math and geometric structures. Like mathematicians, researchers are developing intuitions about where the future opportunities and constraints might be. It's just highly abstract, and until someone writes the beautiful Nautilus Mag article that helps a normie see the landscape they're navigating, we outsiders see it as total magic and unknowable. But Altman has direct access to the folks intuiting through it (likely not validated intuitions, but still insight) That's not to say I believe him. Motivations are very tangled and meta here
deepsquirrelnet 2y ago
We got to ~gpt4 by scaling model parameters, and then several more companies did too. That’s dead. OpenAI knows that much. There will be more, but they aren’t going to report that we’re doing incremental advances until there’s a significant breakthrough. They need to stay afloat and say what it takes to try and bridge the gap.

barrell 2y ago

Sam Altman has explicitly said the next model will be an even bigger jump than between 3 and 4. I think that was before 4o? I know 4o-mini and o1 for sure have come out since he said that

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
MOARDONGZPLZ 2y ago
> Sam Altman has explicitly said the next model will be an even bigger jump than between 3 and 4. You say unironically on an article stating that Sam Altman cannot be taken at his word in a string of comments about him hyping up the next thing so he can exit strongly on the backs of the next greater fool. But seriously, I’m sure GPT-5 will be the greatest leap in history (OpenAI equity holder here).

patcon 2y ago

> Nobody knows. I suspect it's a little different. AI models are still made of math and geometric structures. Like mathematicians, researchers are developing intuitions about where the future opportunities and constraints might be. It's just highly abstract, and until someone writes the beautiful Nautilus Mag article that helps a normie see the landscape they're navigating, we outsiders see it as total magic and unknowable. But Altman has direct access to the folks intuiting through it (likely not validated intuitions, but still insight) That's not to say I believe him. Motivations are very tangled and meta here

deepsquirrelnet 2y ago

We got to ~gpt4 by scaling model parameters, and then several more companies did too. That’s dead. OpenAI knows that much. There will be more, but they aren’t going to report that we’re doing incremental advances until there’s a significant breakthrough. They need to stay afloat and say what it takes to try and bridge the gap.