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Why would there be a correlation between how fast something is developed and its quality? Assuming that AI is helping developers to write more code, it could m

Why would there be a correlation between how fast something is developed and its quality? Assuming that AI is helping developers to write more code, it could mean: * there are fewer developers * developers are working less * the efficiency gains are resulting in more products being created rather than existing products being improved * AI isn't widely enough adopted or used to make enough of a difference * the benefits are too recent to be measured

foobarqux 2y ago
Is there any evidence for any of those hypotheses? More apps in app stores? Mass layoffs? How could the "benefits be too recent to be measured" if everyone is arguing that they are already 10x more productive? If you accept that premise the only conclusion left is that it has made developer's work much less but their bosses haven't noticed yet. But you would still expect that some people are working for themselves and continue to work the same amount of hours so should be producing 10 apps a year instead of 1. Are there any examples of that?
- kurthr 2y ago
  If "everyone is arguing that they are already 10x" since GPT4 18mo ago, why aren't they 100x with _o1 and 3.5 Sonnet? Maybe it's bs and they've been spending actual hours getting maybe 2x more productive for the last year. None of it has kicked in yet? It might continue to improve? Who knows. Actual productivity takes time, and actual products take work. Talk is cheap, show me the code.
- faangguyindia 2y ago
  Yes jobs cut will be secondary market first. India have had massive layoffs in tech sector. Europe and US will follow suit once companies layoff dead weight in outsourcing locations first.
mu53 2y ago
I am leaning towards fewer developers. There is a crunch in the job market and companies are finding rate of progress as being similar before, so don't feel inclined to hire more
- stackskipton 2y ago
  Most companies I know are turning out less features, they are just more tuned features towards what they believe will provide value and less "moon shots".
  - soco 2y ago
    To me it looks like "usability" never gets on top of that value list. Yet the seminars and courses and LinkedIn posts season everything with that word.
inetknght 2y ago
> Why would there be a correlation between how fast something is developed and its quality? I've found that for all but the smallest and tightest of teams, there definitely is a correlation... an inverse correlation.
- marcosdumay 2y ago
  The highest quality product is finished first, yeah. Often the difference is between finishing within an order of magnitude of the predicted time versus not finishing at all. But the highest quality product is almost always finished first. There are exceptions, and AFAIK, those are all for very small projects. In my experience, high-quality takes about a week to be paid back. So if you have something smaller that you'll throw away after a use, you may want to cut corners.
chthonicdaemon 2y ago
I can think of several ways in which faster development could lead to better quality. Let's say you have a fixed time to come up with a solution to a problem. If you are able to come up with one candidate and evaluate it in that time, you have to live with what you get. If you do two candidates, you can select the one that is better. Another aspect of quality is "polish". A team that can get a UI in front of QA twice in a development cycle instead of only once will benefit from more fault-finding.
- al_borland 2y ago
  Parkinson's law tells us that work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion. I think the more likely outcome would either be it still taking the same time to deliver, with extra fluff in the middle, or the time simply shrinks. One thing is still evaluated and shipped, but slight faster.
black_13 2y ago
And does it matter? The broader economy is whats is killing me and everyone one else. Healthcare and education are luxuries i dump tons of money into providing healthcare and education for my kid. Healthcare for myself.
JohnBooty 2y ago
the efficiency gains are resulting in more products being created rather than existing products being improved This has been perhaps the only constant in the history of this industry. As software tooling and hardware get better, we never really feel or see the gains because companies and individual developers are pressed to do more. If a tool makes my job 2x easier, then I'm simply expected to have 2x more output. Not 2x "better" output.
- feketegy 2y ago
  I think that at every stage of software development, a new tool comes along to help manage complexity. This is true from punchcards all the way to LLMs. This chart illustrates it better: https://x.com/feketegy/status/1809173358279311672/photo/1 https://x.com/feketegy/status/1809173358279311672/photo/1
- shepherdjerred 2y ago
  100%. You can also see this with Moore's law. Hardware gains were converted to developer productivity gains. Software is easier than ever to write, but now the average AAA video game is 100+ GB and most popular software is browser-based.
- ativzzz 2y ago
  Because the quality of the product is not solely in engineering's hand. We build the products, and have a lot of impact on the microdecisions, but larger feature planning usually comes from product management, who ultimately should be the ones deciding what features to build to make the customer experience better

foobarqux 2y ago

Is there any evidence for any of those hypotheses? More apps in app stores? Mass layoffs? How could the "benefits be too recent to be measured" if everyone is arguing that they are already 10x more productive? If you accept that premise the only conclusion left is that it has made developer's work much less but their bosses haven't noticed yet. But you would still expect that some people are working for themselves and continue to work the same amount of hours so should be producing 10 apps a year instead of 1. Are there any examples of that?

kurthr 2y ago
If "everyone is arguing that they are already 10x" since GPT4 18mo ago, why aren't they 100x with _o1 and 3.5 Sonnet? Maybe it's bs and they've been spending actual hours getting maybe 2x more productive for the last year. None of it has kicked in yet? It might continue to improve? Who knows. Actual productivity takes time, and actual products take work. Talk is cheap, show me the code.
faangguyindia 2y ago
Yes jobs cut will be secondary market first. India have had massive layoffs in tech sector. Europe and US will follow suit once companies layoff dead weight in outsourcing locations first.

mu53 2y ago

I am leaning towards fewer developers. There is a crunch in the job market and companies are finding rate of progress as being similar before, so don't feel inclined to hire more

stackskipton 2y ago
Most companies I know are turning out less features, they are just more tuned features towards what they believe will provide value and less "moon shots".
- soco 2y ago
  To me it looks like "usability" never gets on top of that value list. Yet the seminars and courses and LinkedIn posts season everything with that word.

inetknght 2y ago

> Why would there be a correlation between how fast something is developed and its quality? I've found that for all but the smallest and tightest of teams, there definitely is a correlation... an inverse correlation.

marcosdumay 2y ago
The highest quality product is finished first, yeah. Often the difference is between finishing within an order of magnitude of the predicted time versus not finishing at all. But the highest quality product is almost always finished first. There are exceptions, and AFAIK, those are all for very small projects. In my experience, high-quality takes about a week to be paid back. So if you have something smaller that you'll throw away after a use, you may want to cut corners.

chthonicdaemon 2y ago

I can think of several ways in which faster development could lead to better quality. Let's say you have a fixed time to come up with a solution to a problem. If you are able to come up with one candidate and evaluate it in that time, you have to live with what you get. If you do two candidates, you can select the one that is better. Another aspect of quality is "polish". A team that can get a UI in front of QA twice in a development cycle instead of only once will benefit from more fault-finding.

al_borland 2y ago
Parkinson's law tells us that work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion. I think the more likely outcome would either be it still taking the same time to deliver, with extra fluff in the middle, or the time simply shrinks. One thing is still evaluated and shipped, but slight faster.

black_13 2y ago

And does it matter? The broader economy is whats is killing me and everyone one else. Healthcare and education are luxuries i dump tons of money into providing healthcare and education for my kid. Healthcare for myself.

JohnBooty 2y ago

the efficiency gains are resulting in more products being created rather than existing products being improved This has been perhaps the only constant in the history of this industry. As software tooling and hardware get better, we never really feel or see the gains because companies and individual developers are pressed to do more. If a tool makes my job 2x easier, then I'm simply expected to have 2x more output. Not 2x "better" output.

feketegy 2y ago
I think that at every stage of software development, a new tool comes along to help manage complexity. This is true from punchcards all the way to LLMs. This chart illustrates it better: https://x.com/feketegy/status/1809173358279311672/photo/1 https://x.com/feketegy/status/1809173358279311672/photo/1
shepherdjerred 2y ago
100%. You can also see this with Moore's law. Hardware gains were converted to developer productivity gains. Software is easier than ever to write, but now the average AAA video game is 100+ GB and most popular software is browser-based.
ativzzz 2y ago
Because the quality of the product is not solely in engineering's hand. We build the products, and have a lot of impact on the microdecisions, but larger feature planning usually comes from product management, who ultimately should be the ones deciding what features to build to make the customer experience better