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Ukraine keeps crossing Russia's red lines. Putin keeps blinking

12 points by howard941 2y ago

throw310822 2y ago
I can't understand if this invasion of a tiny portion of Russia (comparatively with what Russia has invaded of Ukraine) has a strategic value or it's only meant as a distraction- for Russia and the West alike- and in hope of some hasty and ill-thought reaction from Putin. Does anyone have a better insight?
- hollerith 2y ago
  (1) The Ukrainian leadership is so intent on winning at all costs (understandably) that they'd probably knowingly start WW III if they thought doing so would help them win. A few months ago they attacked a target in Russia (a radar installation or such) whose only purpose was to warn Moscow of an attack on Russia by ICBMs and long-range Western bombers that Ukraine does not have. Similarly, invading Russian territory also has a little of this quality of tempting Moscow into attacking the West more directly than it has been. (2) Kiev hopes that by reaching out and touching the lives of many ordinary Russians (i.e., Russians living in Kursk oblast and their relatives, many of whom now have to host their relatives as refugees) they can turn Russian public opinion against continuing the war by making the ordinary Russian believe that the costs of the war on people like him is too high. Analogously, the North Vietnamese leadership watched American public opinion very carefully during its war.
  - protomolecule 2y ago
    [flagged]
  - lawn 2y ago
    > The Ukrainian leadership is so intent on winning at all costs (understandably) that they'd probably knowingly start WW III if they thought doing so would help them win. I love how the narrative is to place as much blame as possible onto the Ukrainan leadership. The undertone is of course that Russia should therefore be able to do whatever they want. Maybe you're not parroting Kremls agenda knowingly, but the effect is the same.
- kwertyoowiyop 2y ago
  Consider similarities to the Tet Offensive.
  - deadlydose 2y ago
    The only similarity is that it was a surprise and had a psychological impact. The Tet Offensive was massive by comparison.
    - aguaviva 2y ago
      It does seem that in retrospect, both campaigns will be seen as in effect having "marked time" -- by shifting the narratives, and forcing the respective occupiers to pause to notice (in a brutal and embarassing fashion) that the clock was ticking on their optional neocolonial projects. Tet also had significant political impact, and forced Westmoreland to start reevaluating the cost (and manpower) needed to keep the ball rolling. As to whether Kursk '24 will portend something similar for the Russian side - time will tell.
- victorbjorklund 2y ago
  it means russia can no longer do "lets have ceasefire and freeze the border" because that would mean them ceasing Kursk to Ukraine. Instead they have to negotiate
  - protomolecule 2y ago
    [flagged]
    - victorbjorklund 2y ago
      Yes, i mean towns the size of the towns russians captured since the start of the war. russia will have to trade their small towns for the small towns they occupied. Which large +500 000 cities do you claim russia captured since the start of the war? only city changed hand since start of war is kherson city that russians had to surrender due to being to weak to hold the city they claim is part of russia
      - protomolecule 2y ago
        [flagged]
        aguaviva 2y ago
        Since you're such a huge fan of Amnesty International: Russia/Ukraine: Invasion of Ukraine is an act of aggression and human rights catastrophe https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/03/russia-ukraine-invasion-of-ukraine-is-an-act-of-aggression-and-human-rights-catastrophe/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/03/russia-ukrain... Ukraine: Russia’s unlawful transfer of civilians a war crime and likely a crime against humanity – new report https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/11/ukraine-russias-unlawful-transfer-of-civilians-a-war-crime-and-likely-a-crime-against-humanity-new-report/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/11/ukraine-russi... Russia: Authorities targeting children in their crusade against anti-war dissent https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/05/russia-authorities-targeting-children-in-their-crusade-against-anti-war-dissent/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/05/russia-author... Ukraine: Destruction of Kakhovka dam requires urgent international response, as thousands face humanitarian disaster https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/06/ukraine-destruction-of-kakhovka-dam-requires-urgent-international-response-as-thousands-face-humanitarian-disaster/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/06/ukraine-destr... Russia: ‘Filtration’ of Ukrainian civilians a ‘shocking violation’ of people forced to flee war https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/09/russia-filtration-of-ukrainian-civilians-a-shocking-violation-of-people-forced-to-flee-war/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/09/russia-filtra... Ukraine/Russia: Investigate use of anti-personnel mines left after Russian occupation as possible war crimes https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/07/ukraine-russia-investigate-use-of-anti-personnel-mines-left-after-russian-occupation-as-possible-war-crimes/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/07/ukraine-russi... Russia’s attack on Odesa’s port risks ‘disastrous’ global crisis https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/07/ukraine-russias-attack-on-odesas-port-risks-disastrous-global-crisis/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/07/ukraine-russi... ICC arrest warrants for senior Russian officials ‘a crucial step towards justice’ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/06/russia-ukraine-icc-arrest-warrants-for-senior-russian-officials-a-crucial-step-towards-justice/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/06/russia-ukrain... ICC issues arrest warrants for top Russian commanders for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/03/russia-ukraine-icc-issues-arrest-warrants-for-top-russian-commanders-for-alleged-war-crimes-and-crimes-against-humanity/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/03/russia-ukrain... Russian court upholds 13-year sentence against Ukrainian human rights defender Maksym Butkevych https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/08/ukraine-russian-court-upholds-13-year-sentence-against-ukrainian-human-rights-defender-maksym-butkevych/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/08/ukraine-russi... New history textbook is a blatant attempt to unlawfully indoctrinate school children in Russia and Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/09/ukraine-russia-new-history-textbook-is-a-blatant-attempt-to-unlawfully-indoctrinate-school-children-in-russia-and-russian-occupied-ukrainian-territories/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/09/ukraine-russi... Ukraine: Russian missile attacks kill a child on International Children’s Day https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/06/ukraine-russian-missile-attacks-kill-a-child-on-international-childrens-day/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/06/ukraine-russi... < Previous - 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 ... 42 >
- smarm52 2y ago
  It sure makes Putin look weak on the world stage. Looking weak is a bad position for a dictator to be in, it makes their supporters look for replacements, which means they're out of a job and probably destined for a shallow grave. De Mesquita, B. B., Smith, A., Siverson, R. M., & Morrow, J. D. (2005). The logic of political survival. MIT press.
- pestatije 2y ago
  its a negotiation item to use if their forced to do so in case of a Trump election win
- lawn 2y ago
  The main reason they're doing this to create a buffer zone to prevent Russia from bombing their civilians. If the west had allowed Ukraine to use their weapons on Russian soil they could've used those to accomplish the same, but here we are and they're doing what the can. Another reason is to destabilize Russia and to show the world that Ukraine can fight back.
lenkite 2y ago
Well, they are suffering disproportionate casualties in this offensive while killing some civilians, taking hostages and shooting up residential infrastructure. Raiding always has a high casualty count once the opponent gets over the surprise. Esp when there are no close defense lines to fallback to or anti-air supporting you. Sure, it makes Putin look bad, but it doesn't solve anything and it has given the Russian hardliners all the ammo they need to firmly curtail all discussions towards a negotiated peace.
- lawn 2y ago
  > it has given the Russian hardliners all the ammo they need to firmly curtail all discussions towards a negotiated peace. The Russian hardliners will simply conjure up excuses from thin air, such as your own that Ukraine is taking huge losses and are killing civilians.
486sx33 2y ago
[flagged]

12 points by howard941 2y ago

I can't understand if this invasion of a tiny portion of Russia (comparatively with what Russia has invaded of Ukraine) has a strategic value or it's only meant as a distraction- for Russia and the West alike- and in hope of some hasty and ill-thought reaction from Putin. Does anyone have a better insight?

hollerith 2y ago
(1) The Ukrainian leadership is so intent on winning at all costs (understandably) that they'd probably knowingly start WW III if they thought doing so would help them win. A few months ago they attacked a target in Russia (a radar installation or such) whose only purpose was to warn Moscow of an attack on Russia by ICBMs and long-range Western bombers that Ukraine does not have. Similarly, invading Russian territory also has a little of this quality of tempting Moscow into attacking the West more directly than it has been. (2) Kiev hopes that by reaching out and touching the lives of many ordinary Russians (i.e., Russians living in Kursk oblast and their relatives, many of whom now have to host their relatives as refugees) they can turn Russian public opinion against continuing the war by making the ordinary Russian believe that the costs of the war on people like him is too high. Analogously, the North Vietnamese leadership watched American public opinion very carefully during its war.
- protomolecule 2y ago
  [flagged]
- lawn 2y ago
  > The Ukrainian leadership is so intent on winning at all costs (understandably) that they'd probably knowingly start WW III if they thought doing so would help them win. I love how the narrative is to place as much blame as possible onto the Ukrainan leadership. The undertone is of course that Russia should therefore be able to do whatever they want. Maybe you're not parroting Kremls agenda knowingly, but the effect is the same.
kwertyoowiyop 2y ago
Consider similarities to the Tet Offensive.
- deadlydose 2y ago
  The only similarity is that it was a surprise and had a psychological impact. The Tet Offensive was massive by comparison.
  - aguaviva 2y ago
    It does seem that in retrospect, both campaigns will be seen as in effect having "marked time" -- by shifting the narratives, and forcing the respective occupiers to pause to notice (in a brutal and embarassing fashion) that the clock was ticking on their optional neocolonial projects. Tet also had significant political impact, and forced Westmoreland to start reevaluating the cost (and manpower) needed to keep the ball rolling. As to whether Kursk '24 will portend something similar for the Russian side - time will tell.
victorbjorklund 2y ago
it means russia can no longer do "lets have ceasefire and freeze the border" because that would mean them ceasing Kursk to Ukraine. Instead they have to negotiate
- protomolecule 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - victorbjorklund 2y ago
    Yes, i mean towns the size of the towns russians captured since the start of the war. russia will have to trade their small towns for the small towns they occupied. Which large +500 000 cities do you claim russia captured since the start of the war? only city changed hand since start of war is kherson city that russians had to surrender due to being to weak to hold the city they claim is part of russia
    - protomolecule 2y ago
      [flagged]
      - aguaviva 2y ago
        Since you're such a huge fan of Amnesty International: Russia/Ukraine: Invasion of Ukraine is an act of aggression and human rights catastrophe https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/03/russia-ukraine-invasion-of-ukraine-is-an-act-of-aggression-and-human-rights-catastrophe/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/03/russia-ukrain... Ukraine: Russia’s unlawful transfer of civilians a war crime and likely a crime against humanity – new report https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/11/ukraine-russias-unlawful-transfer-of-civilians-a-war-crime-and-likely-a-crime-against-humanity-new-report/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/11/ukraine-russi... Russia: Authorities targeting children in their crusade against anti-war dissent https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/05/russia-authorities-targeting-children-in-their-crusade-against-anti-war-dissent/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/05/russia-author... Ukraine: Destruction of Kakhovka dam requires urgent international response, as thousands face humanitarian disaster https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/06/ukraine-destruction-of-kakhovka-dam-requires-urgent-international-response-as-thousands-face-humanitarian-disaster/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/06/ukraine-destr... Russia: ‘Filtration’ of Ukrainian civilians a ‘shocking violation’ of people forced to flee war https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/09/russia-filtration-of-ukrainian-civilians-a-shocking-violation-of-people-forced-to-flee-war/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/09/russia-filtra... Ukraine/Russia: Investigate use of anti-personnel mines left after Russian occupation as possible war crimes https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/07/ukraine-russia-investigate-use-of-anti-personnel-mines-left-after-russian-occupation-as-possible-war-crimes/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/07/ukraine-russi... Russia’s attack on Odesa’s port risks ‘disastrous’ global crisis https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/07/ukraine-russias-attack-on-odesas-port-risks-disastrous-global-crisis/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/07/ukraine-russi... ICC arrest warrants for senior Russian officials ‘a crucial step towards justice’ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/06/russia-ukraine-icc-arrest-warrants-for-senior-russian-officials-a-crucial-step-towards-justice/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/06/russia-ukrain... ICC issues arrest warrants for top Russian commanders for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/03/russia-ukraine-icc-issues-arrest-warrants-for-top-russian-commanders-for-alleged-war-crimes-and-crimes-against-humanity/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/03/russia-ukrain... Russian court upholds 13-year sentence against Ukrainian human rights defender Maksym Butkevych https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/08/ukraine-russian-court-upholds-13-year-sentence-against-ukrainian-human-rights-defender-maksym-butkevych/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/08/ukraine-russi... New history textbook is a blatant attempt to unlawfully indoctrinate school children in Russia and Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/09/ukraine-russia-new-history-textbook-is-a-blatant-attempt-to-unlawfully-indoctrinate-school-children-in-russia-and-russian-occupied-ukrainian-territories/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/09/ukraine-russi... Ukraine: Russian missile attacks kill a child on International Children’s Day https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/06/ukraine-russian-missile-attacks-kill-a-child-on-international-childrens-day/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/06/ukraine-russi... < Previous - 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5 ... 42 >
smarm52 2y ago
It sure makes Putin look weak on the world stage. Looking weak is a bad position for a dictator to be in, it makes their supporters look for replacements, which means they're out of a job and probably destined for a shallow grave. De Mesquita, B. B., Smith, A., Siverson, R. M., & Morrow, J. D. (2005). The logic of political survival. MIT press.
pestatije 2y ago
its a negotiation item to use if their forced to do so in case of a Trump election win
lawn 2y ago
The main reason they're doing this to create a buffer zone to prevent Russia from bombing their civilians. If the west had allowed Ukraine to use their weapons on Russian soil they could've used those to accomplish the same, but here we are and they're doing what the can. Another reason is to destabilize Russia and to show the world that Ukraine can fight back.

lenkite 2y ago

Well, they are suffering disproportionate casualties in this offensive while killing some civilians, taking hostages and shooting up residential infrastructure. Raiding always has a high casualty count once the opponent gets over the surprise. Esp when there are no close defense lines to fallback to or anti-air supporting you. Sure, it makes Putin look bad, but it doesn't solve anything and it has given the Russian hardliners all the ammo they need to firmly curtail all discussions towards a negotiated peace.

lawn 2y ago
> it has given the Russian hardliners all the ammo they need to firmly curtail all discussions towards a negotiated peace. The Russian hardliners will simply conjure up excuses from thin air, such as your own that Ukraine is taking huge losses and are killing civilians.

486sx33 2y ago

[flagged]