8 ms·

Tesla Q2 2024 Update [pdf]

79 points by mfiguiere 2y ago

andoma 2y ago
404 for me?
- jjbinx007 2y ago
  Working okay for me (Firefox for Windows if that matters)
  - andoma 2y ago
    Yeah, seems OK now, must have been a temporary (CDN ?) fluke.
artemonster 2y ago
"FSD is just around the corner, guys. each tesla converted to robotaxi will make you 42069% returns a month, buy stonks!!" - a prayer from a typical elmo fan. I wonder when this clownfest finally implodes
- chroma 2y ago
  I bought a Model 3 back in 2020 and got the self-driving option mostly on a whim. Until recently, it was a handy feature on freeways but a gimmick on surface streets. Ever since the update a couple months ago, it actually does drive itself. I can't remember the last time I intervened. If I did, it was probably to make the car do something dangerous or technically in violation of traffic laws, as you have to be aggressive sometimes in city driving. You also have people like John Carmack saying, "I have made multiple two hour drives without touching the wheel." His main complaint is that the car makes him touch the steering wheel if he's wearing sunglasses (because it can't track his eyes to determine whether he's paying attention). I don't think owners will rent out their cars as taxis any time soon, but the technology really does seem to be there. 1. https://twitter.com/ID_AA_Carmack/status/1814687334366912530 https://twitter.com/ID_AA_Carmack/status/1814687334366912530
  - llamaimperative 2y ago
    The technology really isn't there. Individuals' subjective experience of safety is totally irrelevant when you're talking about a system as huge as "automobile travel." Even 99.999% reliable miles is still dangerous at 3.2 trillion miles per year
    - iamronaldo 2y ago
      Would the comparison not be human drivers? If it's 99% percent reliable I would say that's far safer than humans and makes far more sense already? What am I missing
      - oblio 2y ago
        People would rather die due to their action or inaction than due a botched software update somewhere.
      - metalliqaz 2y ago
        It's not 99% reliable, but even if it was, the issue is lawyers. Who is going to take responsibility when a pedestrian is hit?
      - Veserv 2y ago
        You think humans are only 99% reliable on a per-mile basis?! That would mean your average person crashes every ~100 miles, or about once every two days. You can not just go around asserting comparative advantage when your baseline is so far off it is farcical.
      - alemanek 2y ago
        According to the link below there are 529 accidents per 100 million miles driven for people aged 20-29. That is a bit better than 99.999% reliable. Self driving needs to get down to 1 intervention in 200k miles to match the average 20 year old. They have a long way to go. https://www.friedmansimon.com/faqs/how-common-are-car-accidents/ https://www.friedmansimon.com/faqs/how-common-are-car-accide...
  - 2y ago
- moralestapia 2y ago
  Even if that was true ..., What's the issue with people buying the stocks they like? (as long as it's not $GME of course, we wouldn't want to push hedge funds to illegally manipulate the market to stay afloat :P)
- huntertwo 2y ago
  Assuming Waymo is able to drive safely, it seems like a matter of time until Tesla is able to achieve the same, no? I can’t see why Waymo should be able to do it but Tesla should not given enough time.
  - rozap 2y ago
    This could be outdated info, but don't they have quite a bit of hardware bolted to the car that Tesla doesn't have? Tesla seems to be betting that they can work some software magic with fairly basic hardware, whereas Waymo (I think) has taken an approach that relies on input from quite a few more sensors.
  - kryptiskt 2y ago
    Waymo's cars have an extensive sensor suite that is missing on Teslas, which rely on cameras only.
  - dmicah 2y ago
    For one, Waymo has more sensor modalities in comparison to Tesla, such as Lidar.
  - Yossarrian22 2y ago
    Lack of Lidar may be a factor
  - fragmede 2y ago
    Because of underlying decisions about their respective approaches, it's not certain that Tesla will actually be able to achieve the same as Waymo. Specifically, Waymo does pre-mapping, and uses LIDAR, probably other things, that Tesla won't do, so with those two differences, it's not clear that the computing power is available for Tesla to achieve the same level of self driving as Waymo.
    - huntertwo 2y ago
      Seems like quite the blunder - maybe Tesla thinks they can add LIDAR to their own fleet of robo-taxis. Otherwise they bet the future of the company pretty foolishly.
- harmmonica 2y ago
  I've commented on a few Waymo threads about how I'm a total convert to self-driving cars (or at least to Waymos) so it does seem like it's possible for autonomous cars to work at some level. On this subject, though, I happened to ride a Waymo to a destination only 1-mile away (hurt my knee last week! Not that lazy! Cost ~$8.00 btw) to meet a friend yesterday and it's the first time I got into the Waymo and didn't even watch the road because I guess I'm over the hump of worrying it's going to do something dumb (probably not sensible to give over so quickly, but just sharing how my behavior has changed over maybe 15-20 rides). The friend I met also happened to have a Model 3 with FSD and he offered to give me a ride home in it with FSD enabled. Aside from this blue prompt on the display that forces the driver to interact with the wheel to say "I'm still here" it didn't have any material difficulties with the route. Very short drive of course. But he did have to intervene because of the prompt at least 3 or 4 times, and even one time when we were stopped at a light FSD started turning the wheel even though we were going straight. You could see the car to the left of us get nervous because it noticed this wheel turn and so they moved over a little fearful that the Model 3 was going to go into their lane either right there at the red light or when it turned green. However, once the light turned green the wheel went straight and FSD just proceeded us through the intersection. An oddity for sure. We couldn't quite figure out why it thought it needed to turn the wheel. The reason I bring this up is to share a datapoint of 1, but also because it got me thinking about Tesla's rollout of robotaxis. It seems like before they actually let these cars drive without a driver they're going to have to remove that blue, take-the-wheel prompt while drivers are still in the driver's seat. And then they'll have to have a bunch (hundreds of thousands, millions?) of miles under their belt where there's zero/near-zero intervention from the driver to confidently deploy an actual robotaxi. So I guess the point at which you hear that Tesla no longer requires the driver to take the wheel is the point at which the public will know that Tesla now thinks it's getting close to having a robotaxi. That assumes Tesla does the sensible thing of course and takes that intermediate step. Would be odd to skip it for sure while you have a "safety driver" in the driver's seat.
loufe 2y ago
I think it's pretty bizarre to see a financial document that reads more as an advertisement for the business as a consumer wanting to buy their product rather than actual financial performance details. Also I am so certain the humanoid robot is not very productive and someone in management pushed hard to get it on the line and photographed just before the Q2 report deadline, what a joke.
- infecto 2y ago
  Fairly typical or at least happens often enough that an earnings call deck is provided. I did not watch this call but this should be the slide deck they went over. Definitely more the norm for annual calls, both a formal SEC filing will be made and often the deck to go along with the presentation. From a public perspective I don't think anything in here is an "advertisement". They (mgmt) is trying to show you their narrative, how they think about the company and whats coming up. Think of it as a software roadmap. If you think this one is an advertisement you should see clothing consumer materials like Nike, they will walk through a number of their product lines in a very "ad" like tone. Edit: Not to suggest that their narrative is correct but that's the general aim of these calls. See Snowflake below. https://s26.q4cdn.com/463892824/files/doc_financials/2024/q4/Q4-FY2024-Investor-Presentation-vF.pdf https://s26.q4cdn.com/463892824/files/doc_financials/2024/q4...
- paxys 2y ago
  Tesla is basically a meme stock at this point. Its investors don't care about numbers, just hype.
  - linearrust 2y ago
    > Tesla is basically a meme stock at this point. A $700 billion market cap 'meme stock'. Don't think so.
    - lowmagnet 2y ago
      > A meme stock refers to the shares of a company that have gained viral popularity due to heightened social sentiment. - Investopedia
FireBeyond 2y ago
"We don't talk about the Tesla Semi". > Preparation of Semi factory continues and is on track to begin production by end of 2025. Okay. That's why you've delivered 36 of the 100 units that were scheduled for seven years ago (2017), and none since then, which is why PepsiCo, Sysco, UPS and Walmart have all since terminated their agreements. But it's "on track". Sure. Last time Musk tried to throw out an excuse for this, it wasn't production capacity, it was "battery availability". Meanwhile: > In Q2, we produced over 50% more 4680 cells than in Q1 and continued to see cost improvements. > Both Megapack and Powerwall achieved record deployment in Q2, resulting in 9.4 GWh of total storage deployments. Overall, the Energy business achieved record revenues and gross profit in Q2. "We're breaking so many records in battery availability and production capacity, you guys! We just haven't been able to make any for the Semi in seven years."
- hkdobrev 2y ago
  Many misleading statements here: 1. Semi is not dependent on 4680 batteries. And that's still a minority of the battery mix they use. 4680 form factor is still limited to Cybertruck and some Model Y production. 2. Semi has been in initial and testing production, only selling to customers close to the factories and engineers so they could service them quickly, learn and adapt new models. 3. More new Semi trucks have been recently delivered to Pepsi and internally to Tesla. 4. "On track" compared to previous released information from last few quarters. Semi is still a small part of the business and not as prioritised as it takes a lot to develop a new program for big trucks when the company hasn't been in that niche before. At the same time they are developing various charging solutions with customers and on their routes before they rollout. Still learning from customers and drivers what is the best utilisation for these products.
  - Faaak 2y ago
    I still don't get why they prioritised the cybertruck Vs the semi... Makes no sense at all. Markets are way different in size, I guess margins too. A shame really
    - 2y ago
ilrwbwrkhv 2y ago
I think the 7% yoy decline of sales has the reasoning as "due to pricing, attractive financing options and mix" but I think it is a bit dishonest if Elon's political shift to the right, alienating the left who think climate change is a problem and catering to the guy who says electric cars can go to hell and "drill baby drill" isn't part of the narrative.
- givemeethekeys 2y ago
  This would be true if EV sales in general were up, or if competitor's EV sales were up (or, uhh.. less down than Tesla). Tesla seems to be doing better than the rest.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - llamaimperative 2y ago
    That... is true though? https://insideevs.com/news/706730/us-non-tesla-bev-sales-2023q4/ https://insideevs.com/news/706730/us-non-tesla-bev-sales-202... If you remove Tesla, EVs are continuing their climb. 60% increase YoY in 2023.
    - givemeethekeys 2y ago
      Oh, wow. I stand corrected!
      - dagmx 2y ago
        You were likely thinking of the news that EV growth has slowed. A lot of headlines try and make it sound like EV sales are slowing but it’s the rate of growth that is.
        Ajedi32 2y ago
        All the news I've been able to find about EV sales slowing is from 2024, GGP's link is about 2023. https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q1-2024-ev-sales/ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q1-2024-ev-sales/ says "EV share of total new-vehicle sales in Q1 was 7.3%, a decrease from Q4 2023." Though looking at the raw statistics[1], that's still a 2.6% YoY increase so hard to say if the downturn is merely seasonal or part of a larger trend. I couldn't find any data at all about Q2 2024, which is what the Tesla report we're discussing is for. [1]: https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Q1-2024-Kelley-Blue-Book-Electric-Vehicle-Sales-Report.pdf https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Q1-202...
legitster 2y ago
> In 2024, our vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023, as our teams work on the launch of the next generation vehicle and other products. In 2024, the growth rates of energy storage deployments and revenue in our Energy Generation and Storage business should outpace the Automotive business. Pretty bleak YoY numbers for car sales. They are pretty open about pivoting away from cars at least.
- topper-123 2y ago
  Well, the growth rate for vehicles is negative (q2-2024 compared to q2-2023), so batteries having higher growth rates is not saying much...
  - 0xdde 2y ago
    Could you share what numbers you are looking at?
    - topper-123 2y ago
      I looked at the leftmost chart on page 20.
chollida1 2y ago
Wow, a full half of Tesla's operating income came from tax credits( around $800M of $1.6B operating income). They had a few decent misses on operating income and earnings per share. And their operating margin is in the low 6%ish which would make it one of the worst performing auto manufacturers around at the moment. Man things have turned quickly on Tesla. They are still in a good cash position but their car business is really showing signs of strain at the moment. they did announce that they'll release a more affordable model by the end of H125 so that will help, but with that timeframe its likely to be a model 3 refresh and not a new car.
- oblio 2y ago
  Turns out people were right and Musk had a bunch of good ideas, some of which might have a very positive impact on the world (probably EV adoption) but all predicated on getting government money. > their car business is really showing signs of strain at the moment. Their car business aka "their entire business"? :-)
  - throwup238 2y ago
    > Their car business aka "their entire business"? :-) Tesla acquired SolarCity which became their Tesla Energy division so it's not just cars, they also do residential solar, batteries, and supercharger infrastructure (which more and more manufacturers are using).
    - oskarkk 2y ago
      Tesla's residential solar was falling since the acquisition (SolarCity before the acquisition deployed like 4x more solar than Tesla in 2023), and now they don't even mention it in the document we're discussing. But "energy generation and storage revenue" is 12% of their revenues, and they're showing a big growth in storage deployment, so the storage part is looking good, charging too.
  - dotancohen 2y ago
    > all predicated on getting government money. Ostensibly the government spends its money and things that benefit the population, no?
Lance_ET_Compte 2y ago
-7% Year-over-year profit from automotive sales... Since learning more about Mr. Musk, registrations for his automobiles in California have fallen drastically: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/teslas-california-registrations-fell-24-second-quarter-dealer-data-shows-2024-07-18 https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/teslas...
- goodluckchuck 2y ago
  So 2-3x better than Stellantis. Their CEO must be further right than a willow.
TheAlchemist 2y ago
They still trying hard to hide the fact their future profits are rapidly converging to 0, or negative if the EV credits are removed. All the future projects are basically smoke and mirrors. Robotaxi ? "Though timing of Robotaxi deployment depends on technological advancement and regulatory approval, we are working vigorously on this opportunity given the outsized potential value. " Sure thing. So how come that Tesla is the only one company trying to solve autonomous driving that didn't even ask for any regulatory approval yet ? As a reminder, Musk said in 2017 that his Boring Company was doing DC to NY route (in 29 minutes) and got 'verbal govt approval' and was only waiting for full approval to proceed. We're exactly 7 years later and absolutely nothing has been done. Tesla is an AI company now. Funny chart on page 8 - Tesla AI capacity stands at '45k H100 equivalent', while the company claims it's betting it's whole future on solving autonomous driving. But xAI, which is also a Musk's company, apparently build a 100k cluster from scratch in no time (apparently using Tesla's H100...). Something doesn't add up here at all. I'm truly fascinated by all of this.
- ben_w 2y ago
  > All the future projects are basically smoke and mirrors. So were electric vehicles when he took over as CEO. In fact, that's why he ended up taking over as CEO — Tesla needed someone who could sell smoke and mirrors for long enough to do a "fake it 'til you make it" run with the entire brand, as they needed to have the cars to justify the chargers and the chargers to justify the cars. This doesn't mean he's still the right man for the job once the dull nature of reality becomes more obvious, when EVs become boring and mundane, which is exactly what's happening in that market.
  - api 2y ago
    EVs were ready. The Nissan Leaf was the first successful mass market one. Rockets that land themselves were talked about since the 60s and prototyped by Lockheed in the 90s as the DC-X. (Search YouTube for some flight tests.) The funding just wasn’t there after the Cold War was over and excitement about space was at a low point. I’m not taking away from the great accomplishments of the engineers at Tesla and SpaceX. What I’m pointing out is that in both cases Musk was raising money to complete and bring to market things that were already quite proven to be achievable. EVs and vertical landing rockets had been done, just not as well. Rapid tunneling, FSD, and Neurolink are all things nobody has done or done well. Success rate is much worse in that domain because there is a lot less prior art to draw from and less certainty about a solution.
dagmx 2y ago
Honestly, this downturn in profit is not surprising. (Copying from the other thread) - A lot of Tesla competitors have caught up (outside of self driving) and energized their sections of the EV market. I see way more Korean EVs on the road than ever before for example. - EV growth is slowing due to various factors, but so are cars in general due to economic issues. - Elon opened up the NACS as a gambit for not having to change their own chargers. NACS won, but a lot of prospective EV buyers are waiting for NACS native vehicles from other manufacturers. - Elon has really alienated massive chunks of the EV demographic. Identity politics are inherently tumultuous. As a launch batch Model Y owner myself, I’m definitely looking elsewhere whenever this car needs replacing. I want more comfort and just a better driving experience (turn signal stalks, an instrument cluster etc in the more accessible models) and the only reason I went with Tesla is the charging network is unmatched in NA. I do not have a very rosy outlook on Tesla as long as Elon remains in charge. He got it where it is, but he’s increasingly a liability.
- jodleif 2y ago
  > - A lot of Tesla competitors have caught up (outside of self driving) and energized their sections of the EV market. I see way more Korean EVs on the road than ever before for example. Mercedes already have certified level 3 self driving. (With some caveats, but that’s more than any of Tesla offerings)
  - whamlastxmas 2y ago
    The two are nowhere near comparable
Animats 2y ago
Well, it's not as bad as Q1. But way down from last year. It's amusing to see what Tesla puts in a filing in which material mis-statements are felonies. It's quite different from what Musk says when he can get away with it. The phrase "full self driving" is never written out. They do use "FSD (Supervised)" twice, both with the footnote in tiny type "Active driver supervision required; does not make the vehicle autonomous." The closest thing to a mention of real autonomous driving is "Looking ahead to future autonomous driving and robotaxi service, we continued progress on software and hardware development." Remember that Tesla announced the reveal of their robo-taxi for August 8, 2024, but that's been cancelled.[1] On the battery front, Tesla is having a bad year.[2] Tesla is trying to make their own cells, rather than buying them from Panasonic or CATL. It's not working well at all. Also, note the total absence of any mention of solid-state batteries. That's clearly the coming technology, and Tesla is nowhere in that space. (Yes, solid state batteries are real. On sale at Home Depot now.[3]) This is a big car company having a so-so year. Ford and GM have years like this. Ford's P/E ratio is around 15. GM's is around 6. Tesla's is around 68. Nothing in this report justifies that. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-11/tesla-plans-to-delay-robotaxi-unveiling-to-october-from-august https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-11/tesla-pla... [2] https://electrek.co/2024/07/17/elon-musk-might-give-up-tesla-4680-battery-cell-end-of-the-year/ https://electrek.co/2024/07/17/elon-musk-might-give-up-tesla... [3] https://www.homedepot.com/p/YOSHINO-Solid-State-Portable-Power-Station-4-000W-6-000W-Peak-Push-Button-Start-Battery-Generator-for-Home-Camping-RV-B4000-SST/327262379 https://www.homedepot.com/p/YOSHINO-Solid-State-Portable-Pow...
- grecy 2y ago
  > This is a big car company having a so-so year. Ford and GM have years like this. Ford's P/E ratio is around 15. GM's is around 6. Tesla's is around 68. Nothing in this report justifies that. Telsa is not a car company, any anyone that thinks that way is completely missing the point
  - aynyc 2y ago
    Are they a software company? Maybe energy company? Not sure what they are.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
mnjksd 2y ago
[dead]

79 points by mfiguiere 2y ago

andoma 2y ago

404 for me?

jjbinx007 2y ago
Working okay for me (Firefox for Windows if that matters)
- andoma 2y ago
  Yeah, seems OK now, must have been a temporary (CDN ?) fluke.

artemonster 2y ago

"FSD is just around the corner, guys. each tesla converted to robotaxi will make you 42069% returns a month, buy stonks!!" - a prayer from a typical elmo fan. I wonder when this clownfest finally implodes

chroma 2y ago
I bought a Model 3 back in 2020 and got the self-driving option mostly on a whim. Until recently, it was a handy feature on freeways but a gimmick on surface streets. Ever since the update a couple months ago, it actually does drive itself. I can't remember the last time I intervened. If I did, it was probably to make the car do something dangerous or technically in violation of traffic laws, as you have to be aggressive sometimes in city driving. You also have people like John Carmack saying, "I have made multiple two hour drives without touching the wheel." His main complaint is that the car makes him touch the steering wheel if he's wearing sunglasses (because it can't track his eyes to determine whether he's paying attention). I don't think owners will rent out their cars as taxis any time soon, but the technology really does seem to be there. 1. https://twitter.com/ID_AA_Carmack/status/1814687334366912530 https://twitter.com/ID_AA_Carmack/status/1814687334366912530
- llamaimperative 2y ago
  The technology really isn't there. Individuals' subjective experience of safety is totally irrelevant when you're talking about a system as huge as "automobile travel." Even 99.999% reliable miles is still dangerous at 3.2 trillion miles per year
  - iamronaldo 2y ago
    Would the comparison not be human drivers? If it's 99% percent reliable I would say that's far safer than humans and makes far more sense already? What am I missing
    - oblio 2y ago
      People would rather die due to their action or inaction than due a botched software update somewhere.
    - metalliqaz 2y ago
      It's not 99% reliable, but even if it was, the issue is lawyers. Who is going to take responsibility when a pedestrian is hit?
    - Veserv 2y ago
      You think humans are only 99% reliable on a per-mile basis?! That would mean your average person crashes every ~100 miles, or about once every two days. You can not just go around asserting comparative advantage when your baseline is so far off it is farcical.
    - alemanek 2y ago
      According to the link below there are 529 accidents per 100 million miles driven for people aged 20-29. That is a bit better than 99.999% reliable. Self driving needs to get down to 1 intervention in 200k miles to match the average 20 year old. They have a long way to go. https://www.friedmansimon.com/faqs/how-common-are-car-accidents/ https://www.friedmansimon.com/faqs/how-common-are-car-accide...
- 2y ago
moralestapia 2y ago
Even if that was true ..., What's the issue with people buying the stocks they like? (as long as it's not $GME of course, we wouldn't want to push hedge funds to illegally manipulate the market to stay afloat :P)
huntertwo 2y ago
Assuming Waymo is able to drive safely, it seems like a matter of time until Tesla is able to achieve the same, no? I can’t see why Waymo should be able to do it but Tesla should not given enough time.
- rozap 2y ago
  This could be outdated info, but don't they have quite a bit of hardware bolted to the car that Tesla doesn't have? Tesla seems to be betting that they can work some software magic with fairly basic hardware, whereas Waymo (I think) has taken an approach that relies on input from quite a few more sensors.
- kryptiskt 2y ago
  Waymo's cars have an extensive sensor suite that is missing on Teslas, which rely on cameras only.
- dmicah 2y ago
  For one, Waymo has more sensor modalities in comparison to Tesla, such as Lidar.
- Yossarrian22 2y ago
  Lack of Lidar may be a factor
- fragmede 2y ago
  Because of underlying decisions about their respective approaches, it's not certain that Tesla will actually be able to achieve the same as Waymo. Specifically, Waymo does pre-mapping, and uses LIDAR, probably other things, that Tesla won't do, so with those two differences, it's not clear that the computing power is available for Tesla to achieve the same level of self driving as Waymo.
  - huntertwo 2y ago
    Seems like quite the blunder - maybe Tesla thinks they can add LIDAR to their own fleet of robo-taxis. Otherwise they bet the future of the company pretty foolishly.
harmmonica 2y ago
I've commented on a few Waymo threads about how I'm a total convert to self-driving cars (or at least to Waymos) so it does seem like it's possible for autonomous cars to work at some level. On this subject, though, I happened to ride a Waymo to a destination only 1-mile away (hurt my knee last week! Not that lazy! Cost ~$8.00 btw) to meet a friend yesterday and it's the first time I got into the Waymo and didn't even watch the road because I guess I'm over the hump of worrying it's going to do something dumb (probably not sensible to give over so quickly, but just sharing how my behavior has changed over maybe 15-20 rides). The friend I met also happened to have a Model 3 with FSD and he offered to give me a ride home in it with FSD enabled. Aside from this blue prompt on the display that forces the driver to interact with the wheel to say "I'm still here" it didn't have any material difficulties with the route. Very short drive of course. But he did have to intervene because of the prompt at least 3 or 4 times, and even one time when we were stopped at a light FSD started turning the wheel even though we were going straight. You could see the car to the left of us get nervous because it noticed this wheel turn and so they moved over a little fearful that the Model 3 was going to go into their lane either right there at the red light or when it turned green. However, once the light turned green the wheel went straight and FSD just proceeded us through the intersection. An oddity for sure. We couldn't quite figure out why it thought it needed to turn the wheel. The reason I bring this up is to share a datapoint of 1, but also because it got me thinking about Tesla's rollout of robotaxis. It seems like before they actually let these cars drive without a driver they're going to have to remove that blue, take-the-wheel prompt while drivers are still in the driver's seat. And then they'll have to have a bunch (hundreds of thousands, millions?) of miles under their belt where there's zero/near-zero intervention from the driver to confidently deploy an actual robotaxi. So I guess the point at which you hear that Tesla no longer requires the driver to take the wheel is the point at which the public will know that Tesla now thinks it's getting close to having a robotaxi. That assumes Tesla does the sensible thing of course and takes that intermediate step. Would be odd to skip it for sure while you have a "safety driver" in the driver's seat.

loufe 2y ago

I think it's pretty bizarre to see a financial document that reads more as an advertisement for the business as a consumer wanting to buy their product rather than actual financial performance details. Also I am so certain the humanoid robot is not very productive and someone in management pushed hard to get it on the line and photographed just before the Q2 report deadline, what a joke.

infecto 2y ago
Fairly typical or at least happens often enough that an earnings call deck is provided. I did not watch this call but this should be the slide deck they went over. Definitely more the norm for annual calls, both a formal SEC filing will be made and often the deck to go along with the presentation. From a public perspective I don't think anything in here is an "advertisement". They (mgmt) is trying to show you their narrative, how they think about the company and whats coming up. Think of it as a software roadmap. If you think this one is an advertisement you should see clothing consumer materials like Nike, they will walk through a number of their product lines in a very "ad" like tone. Edit: Not to suggest that their narrative is correct but that's the general aim of these calls. See Snowflake below. https://s26.q4cdn.com/463892824/files/doc_financials/2024/q4/Q4-FY2024-Investor-Presentation-vF.pdf https://s26.q4cdn.com/463892824/files/doc_financials/2024/q4...
paxys 2y ago
Tesla is basically a meme stock at this point. Its investors don't care about numbers, just hype.
- linearrust 2y ago
  > Tesla is basically a meme stock at this point. A $700 billion market cap 'meme stock'. Don't think so.
  - lowmagnet 2y ago
    > A meme stock refers to the shares of a company that have gained viral popularity due to heightened social sentiment. - Investopedia

FireBeyond 2y ago

"We don't talk about the Tesla Semi". > Preparation of Semi factory continues and is on track to begin production by end of 2025. Okay. That's why you've delivered 36 of the 100 units that were scheduled for seven years ago (2017), and none since then, which is why PepsiCo, Sysco, UPS and Walmart have all since terminated their agreements. But it's "on track". Sure. Last time Musk tried to throw out an excuse for this, it wasn't production capacity, it was "battery availability". Meanwhile: > In Q2, we produced over 50% more 4680 cells than in Q1 and continued to see cost improvements. > Both Megapack and Powerwall achieved record deployment in Q2, resulting in 9.4 GWh of total storage deployments. Overall, the Energy business achieved record revenues and gross profit in Q2. "We're breaking so many records in battery availability and production capacity, you guys! We just haven't been able to make any for the Semi in seven years."

hkdobrev 2y ago
Many misleading statements here: 1. Semi is not dependent on 4680 batteries. And that's still a minority of the battery mix they use. 4680 form factor is still limited to Cybertruck and some Model Y production. 2. Semi has been in initial and testing production, only selling to customers close to the factories and engineers so they could service them quickly, learn and adapt new models. 3. More new Semi trucks have been recently delivered to Pepsi and internally to Tesla. 4. "On track" compared to previous released information from last few quarters. Semi is still a small part of the business and not as prioritised as it takes a lot to develop a new program for big trucks when the company hasn't been in that niche before. At the same time they are developing various charging solutions with customers and on their routes before they rollout. Still learning from customers and drivers what is the best utilisation for these products.
- Faaak 2y ago
  I still don't get why they prioritised the cybertruck Vs the semi... Makes no sense at all. Markets are way different in size, I guess margins too. A shame really
  - 2y ago

ilrwbwrkhv 2y ago

I think the 7% yoy decline of sales has the reasoning as "due to pricing, attractive financing options and mix" but I think it is a bit dishonest if Elon's political shift to the right, alienating the left who think climate change is a problem and catering to the guy who says electric cars can go to hell and "drill baby drill" isn't part of the narrative.

givemeethekeys 2y ago
This would be true if EV sales in general were up, or if competitor's EV sales were up (or, uhh.. less down than Tesla). Tesla seems to be doing better than the rest.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- llamaimperative 2y ago
  That... is true though? https://insideevs.com/news/706730/us-non-tesla-bev-sales-2023q4/ https://insideevs.com/news/706730/us-non-tesla-bev-sales-202... If you remove Tesla, EVs are continuing their climb. 60% increase YoY in 2023.
  - givemeethekeys 2y ago
    Oh, wow. I stand corrected!
    - dagmx 2y ago
      You were likely thinking of the news that EV growth has slowed. A lot of headlines try and make it sound like EV sales are slowing but it’s the rate of growth that is.
      - Ajedi32 2y ago
        All the news I've been able to find about EV sales slowing is from 2024, GGP's link is about 2023. https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q1-2024-ev-sales/ https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q1-2024-ev-sales/ says "EV share of total new-vehicle sales in Q1 was 7.3%, a decrease from Q4 2023." Though looking at the raw statistics[1], that's still a 2.6% YoY increase so hard to say if the downturn is merely seasonal or part of a larger trend. I couldn't find any data at all about Q2 2024, which is what the Tesla report we're discussing is for. [1]: https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Q1-2024-Kelley-Blue-Book-Electric-Vehicle-Sales-Report.pdf https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Q1-202...

legitster 2y ago

> In 2024, our vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023, as our teams work on the launch of the next generation vehicle and other products. In 2024, the growth rates of energy storage deployments and revenue in our Energy Generation and Storage business should outpace the Automotive business. Pretty bleak YoY numbers for car sales. They are pretty open about pivoting away from cars at least.

topper-123 2y ago
Well, the growth rate for vehicles is negative (q2-2024 compared to q2-2023), so batteries having higher growth rates is not saying much...
- 0xdde 2y ago
  Could you share what numbers you are looking at?
  - topper-123 2y ago
    I looked at the leftmost chart on page 20.

chollida1 2y ago

Wow, a full half of Tesla's operating income came from tax credits( around $800M of $1.6B operating income). They had a few decent misses on operating income and earnings per share. And their operating margin is in the low 6%ish which would make it one of the worst performing auto manufacturers around at the moment. Man things have turned quickly on Tesla. They are still in a good cash position but their car business is really showing signs of strain at the moment. they did announce that they'll release a more affordable model by the end of H125 so that will help, but with that timeframe its likely to be a model 3 refresh and not a new car.

oblio 2y ago
Turns out people were right and Musk had a bunch of good ideas, some of which might have a very positive impact on the world (probably EV adoption) but all predicated on getting government money. > their car business is really showing signs of strain at the moment. Their car business aka "their entire business"? :-)
- throwup238 2y ago
  > Their car business aka "their entire business"? :-) Tesla acquired SolarCity which became their Tesla Energy division so it's not just cars, they also do residential solar, batteries, and supercharger infrastructure (which more and more manufacturers are using).
  - oskarkk 2y ago
    Tesla's residential solar was falling since the acquisition (SolarCity before the acquisition deployed like 4x more solar than Tesla in 2023), and now they don't even mention it in the document we're discussing. But "energy generation and storage revenue" is 12% of their revenues, and they're showing a big growth in storage deployment, so the storage part is looking good, charging too.
- dotancohen 2y ago
  > all predicated on getting government money. Ostensibly the government spends its money and things that benefit the population, no?

Lance_ET_Compte 2y ago

-7% Year-over-year profit from automotive sales... Since learning more about Mr. Musk, registrations for his automobiles in California have fallen drastically: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/teslas-california-registrations-fell-24-second-quarter-dealer-data-shows-2024-07-18 https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/teslas...

goodluckchuck 2y ago
So 2-3x better than Stellantis. Their CEO must be further right than a willow.

TheAlchemist 2y ago

They still trying hard to hide the fact their future profits are rapidly converging to 0, or negative if the EV credits are removed. All the future projects are basically smoke and mirrors. Robotaxi ? "Though timing of Robotaxi deployment depends on technological advancement and regulatory approval, we are working vigorously on this opportunity given the outsized potential value. " Sure thing. So how come that Tesla is the only one company trying to solve autonomous driving that didn't even ask for any regulatory approval yet ? As a reminder, Musk said in 2017 that his Boring Company was doing DC to NY route (in 29 minutes) and got 'verbal govt approval' and was only waiting for full approval to proceed. We're exactly 7 years later and absolutely nothing has been done. Tesla is an AI company now. Funny chart on page 8 - Tesla AI capacity stands at '45k H100 equivalent', while the company claims it's betting it's whole future on solving autonomous driving. But xAI, which is also a Musk's company, apparently build a 100k cluster from scratch in no time (apparently using Tesla's H100...). Something doesn't add up here at all. I'm truly fascinated by all of this.

ben_w 2y ago
> All the future projects are basically smoke and mirrors. So were electric vehicles when he took over as CEO. In fact, that's why he ended up taking over as CEO — Tesla needed someone who could sell smoke and mirrors for long enough to do a "fake it 'til you make it" run with the entire brand, as they needed to have the cars to justify the chargers and the chargers to justify the cars. This doesn't mean he's still the right man for the job once the dull nature of reality becomes more obvious, when EVs become boring and mundane, which is exactly what's happening in that market.
- api 2y ago
  EVs were ready. The Nissan Leaf was the first successful mass market one. Rockets that land themselves were talked about since the 60s and prototyped by Lockheed in the 90s as the DC-X. (Search YouTube for some flight tests.) The funding just wasn’t there after the Cold War was over and excitement about space was at a low point. I’m not taking away from the great accomplishments of the engineers at Tesla and SpaceX. What I’m pointing out is that in both cases Musk was raising money to complete and bring to market things that were already quite proven to be achievable. EVs and vertical landing rockets had been done, just not as well. Rapid tunneling, FSD, and Neurolink are all things nobody has done or done well. Success rate is much worse in that domain because there is a lot less prior art to draw from and less certainty about a solution.

dagmx 2y ago

Honestly, this downturn in profit is not surprising. (Copying from the other thread) - A lot of Tesla competitors have caught up (outside of self driving) and energized their sections of the EV market. I see way more Korean EVs on the road than ever before for example. - EV growth is slowing due to various factors, but so are cars in general due to economic issues. - Elon opened up the NACS as a gambit for not having to change their own chargers. NACS won, but a lot of prospective EV buyers are waiting for NACS native vehicles from other manufacturers. - Elon has really alienated massive chunks of the EV demographic. Identity politics are inherently tumultuous. As a launch batch Model Y owner myself, I’m definitely looking elsewhere whenever this car needs replacing. I want more comfort and just a better driving experience (turn signal stalks, an instrument cluster etc in the more accessible models) and the only reason I went with Tesla is the charging network is unmatched in NA. I do not have a very rosy outlook on Tesla as long as Elon remains in charge. He got it where it is, but he’s increasingly a liability.

jodleif 2y ago
> - A lot of Tesla competitors have caught up (outside of self driving) and energized their sections of the EV market. I see way more Korean EVs on the road than ever before for example. Mercedes already have certified level 3 self driving. (With some caveats, but that’s more than any of Tesla offerings)
- whamlastxmas 2y ago
  The two are nowhere near comparable

Animats 2y ago

Well, it's not as bad as Q1. But way down from last year. It's amusing to see what Tesla puts in a filing in which material mis-statements are felonies. It's quite different from what Musk says when he can get away with it. The phrase "full self driving" is never written out. They do use "FSD (Supervised)" twice, both with the footnote in tiny type "Active driver supervision required; does not make the vehicle autonomous." The closest thing to a mention of real autonomous driving is "Looking ahead to future autonomous driving and robotaxi service, we continued progress on software and hardware development." Remember that Tesla announced the reveal of their robo-taxi for August 8, 2024, but that's been cancelled.[1] On the battery front, Tesla is having a bad year.[2] Tesla is trying to make their own cells, rather than buying them from Panasonic or CATL. It's not working well at all. Also, note the total absence of any mention of solid-state batteries. That's clearly the coming technology, and Tesla is nowhere in that space. (Yes, solid state batteries are real. On sale at Home Depot now.[3]) This is a big car company having a so-so year. Ford and GM have years like this. Ford's P/E ratio is around 15. GM's is around 6. Tesla's is around 68. Nothing in this report justifies that. [1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-11/tesla-plans-to-delay-robotaxi-unveiling-to-october-from-august https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-11/tesla-pla... [2] https://electrek.co/2024/07/17/elon-musk-might-give-up-tesla-4680-battery-cell-end-of-the-year/ https://electrek.co/2024/07/17/elon-musk-might-give-up-tesla... [3] https://www.homedepot.com/p/YOSHINO-Solid-State-Portable-Power-Station-4-000W-6-000W-Peak-Push-Button-Start-Battery-Generator-for-Home-Camping-RV-B4000-SST/327262379 https://www.homedepot.com/p/YOSHINO-Solid-State-Portable-Pow...

grecy 2y ago
> This is a big car company having a so-so year. Ford and GM have years like this. Ford's P/E ratio is around 15. GM's is around 6. Tesla's is around 68. Nothing in this report justifies that. Telsa is not a car company, any anyone that thinks that way is completely missing the point
- aynyc 2y ago
  Are they a software company? Maybe energy company? Not sure what they are.

deleted 2y ago

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mnjksd 2y ago

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