9 ms·
Does generative AI facilitate investor trading? Evidence from ChatGPT outages
- anuna111 2y ago[dead]
- qqq1224 2y ago[dead]
- 2Gkashmiri 2y agoHow would this work in the market, I am Curious to try it
- mebutnotme 2y agoIt could be news parsing, where it can turn news article text into data points that an investment model could imply market signals from. Something similar could happen with transcripts of company investor calls, or any other text/audio companies put out. With the right prompt you can turn text into signals, the trick would be getting that prompt right (and prompt engineering to limit hallucinations as much as possible).
- DowagerDave 2y agoall those data sources are trailing though. Most intentionally try to (over simplistically) explain; few to none predict.
- candiddevmike 2y agoSentiment analysis is AI now?
- ben_w 2y agoAlways was
- potatoman22 2y agoThis is a classic example of "AI is whatever hasn't been done yet." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_effect
- Legend2440 2y agoSentiment analysis has always been done with ML models. It's one of those problems that can really only be solved with data.
- 0xdeadbeefbabe 2y agoAI is bullish now
- sfink 2y ago> the trick would be getting that prompt right (and prompt engineering to limit hallucinations as much as possible). Why do you have to get it right? Don't you just have to get it the same as everyone else, slightly faster?
- hluska 2y agoThat is the definition of ‘right’ in a trading context.
- kjkjadksj 2y agoOr you can just not use ai and build your own sentiment analysis metric that is actually going to work. E.g. maybe you make a word cloud of a bunch of recent news articles, you identify certain candidate words as positive sentiment or negative sentiment. Now you can score any new article by counting pattern matches with either list. Not really much initial work to set up, and you probably get much higher quality results than what hallucinating ai would get you, if you happened to find that magic prompt that is.
- aweektogetit 2y agoCould see it being used for data analysis when doing sourcing, plenty of AI-powered datascience notebooks out there
- joering2 2y agoI think lately results of chat went downhill. I got used to asking "are you sure about that" after each chat answer to my question, and to most of the time the answer is "you are right, here is how I was wrong".
- jazzyjackson 2y agochatgpt has never stood up for itself, if you express doubt it will defer and say it must by mistaken even when it's correct
- sitkack 2y agoThat is because they turned the sycophancy up to 11. You have to turn it down, if you are a serious LLM user and you don't have your own system prompt, you are using it wrong.
- babypuncher 2y agoThis doesn't change how frequently the LLM provides a wrong answer, just how confident it is when you question it.
- Zambyte 2y agoFor what it's worth, certain system prompts can improve output quality.
- 12_throw_away 2y agoSuch as?
- Zambyte 2y agoCoT prompting https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.01687 https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.01687
- deleted 2y ago
- exitb 2y agoHypothetically speaking, if a chat provider used a Golden Gate Claude [1] technique to essentially create and pump a meme stock, is that a fraud? [1] https://www.anthropic.com/news/golden-gate-claude https://www.anthropic.com/news/golden-gate-claude
- sixhobbits 2y agoLove this idea. Would be great to see how it applies to twitter (e.g. reduction of tweets during GPT outages) but I guess that twitter data is hard to get now
- ProllyInfamous 2y agoBackground: I am personally a long-term value investor (a la Sir Templeton or Buffet †), but annually breakfast with a retired "numbers guy" (who's currently building his short-term trading strategy). For decades he worked finance for among the largest accounting firms in the world... Since 2016, our mutual friend and I have been adamently suggesting he look into "this bitcoin thing" — his response was typically [disinterested]. At a recent breakfast, it was explained how "talking with ChatGPT finally convinced [him] that you guys have been correct about Bitcoin all along." When asked "what did ChatGPT explain to you that we two humans could not?!" His response was simply "I never got embarrassed asking the computer any finance questions, even stupid/simple ones; I've always been the finance guy with answers so I forgot how to be humble in unexplored topics." Pretty damn humbling, indeed; now if only he had listened back in 2016 =D †: "Time in the market beats timING the market."
- ipython 2y agoI would be curious to hear what information it (ChatGPT) provided that changed his mind?
- DowagerDave 2y agoit sounds like it's more the non-human / non-embarrassing setup than the actual results. The same way I swear at tools or yell at clouds.
- fwip 2y agoAnother datapoint that shows that LLMs will simply repeat what everyone is saying and happily give the exact wrong answer.
- snapcaster 2y agoCan't have been trained on hackernews then, this is the most anti-crypto space I'm aware of besides /r/buttcoin. i'm also softly anti crypto so not criticizing, just pointing out you're literally in an environment where the opinion you're talking about gets eviscerated every time so it can't be what "everyone is saying"
- DeltaCoast 2y agoThis looks so fun! I had not considered getting an apple watch until now. I mostly just use my phone for spotify and maps.
- LeoPanthera 2y agoWrong thread, probably.
- DeltaCoast 2y agoOof yes, sorry, meant to comment on the tiny pod post.
- vouaobrasil 2y ago1. Set up LLM to give financial advice on which stocks to trade. 2. Secretly read the results and use the information to make your own trades 3. Profit!
- angelakillz000 2y ago[dead]