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The geopolitical calculus here seems a bit hard to follow. Surely China suffers disproportionately from more difficult export traffic to the point that it shou

The geopolitical calculus here seems a bit hard to follow. Surely China suffers disproportionately from more difficult export traffic to the point that it should be incentivized to tell Iran to tell the Houthis to cut it out

bee_rider 2y ago
The article is paywalled, so I don’t know if they elaborate more on this; I’m just responding to your comment. I’m pretty sure these countries aren’t beloved allies of each other, right? China presumably could politely ask Iran, who’d have to weigh their priorities, and the Houthis might just keep launching rockets anyway, they aren’t exactly a branch of Iran’s military or anything.
- jimbokun 2y ago
  None of the groups projecting Iran's interests in the region are a branch of Iran's military or anything. Not the Houthis. Not Hezbollah. Not Hamas. It works better for Iran that way.
- rasz 2y ago
  Yes, Houthis might just ignore them and keep shooting <checks notes> Iranian made rockets delivered to them by Iran.
  - jncfhnb 2y ago
    At targets requested by iran
  - bee_rider 2y ago
    I’m sure Iran has sort of “priced in” the cost of doing this sort of stuff via proxy instead of directly, and part of that cost is that the proxies don’t always target exactly what you want.
lolinder 2y ago
What makes you think that China has much sway over Iran? The world isn't divided into the countries that are under American hegemony and the countries that are under Chinese hegemony. It's more that there are the countries under American hegemony, the countries on mostly-friendly terms with the Americans but able to say no to them, and the small number of countries that are entirely cut off by the USA. This last group tends to not want to just trade one hegemon for another, they try their best to become self-sufficient and able to say no to everyone. Iran is very much in that category: just because they're on friendlier terms with China than with the USA doesn't make them beholden to them.
- rehitman 2y ago
  You are correct, but a country like Iran doesn't have any trade partner other than China, so if China wants it can put enough pressure on them to stop. I.e., Iran will be forced to listen to China, not that it likes.
- tzs 2y ago
  Something like 70-80% of Iran's budget comes from oil sales, and around 90% of Iran's oil sales are to China. I'd guess that would make Iran take requests from China very seriously.
  - AnimalMuppet 2y ago
    Or the other way around. It might make China take requests from Iran very seriously. Depends on whether China needs the oil worse than Iran needs the money. [Edit: I'm rate limited for my own good, so I'm replying to jimbokun here: Which do I think is more likely? I have no data. Particularly, I have no data about the elasticity of China's oil demand.]
    - jimbokun 2y ago
      Which do you think is more likely?
    - jncfhnb 2y ago
electric_mayhem 2y ago
I read a book a bit ago about deglobalization: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_the_World_Is_Just_the_Beginning https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_the_World_Is_Just_t... It makes a good case for, among other things, that once the US stops enforcing order on the seas, globally, that there’s going to be at best regional powers looking out for their own interests, only, and widespread piracy where even that is lacking. Draught is one thing, but if pirates attacking commercial ships aren’t being smacked down that’s pretty alarming and doesn’t bode well.
- lizardking 2y ago
  The problem with Zeihan's predictions is that they are predicated on the assumption that America is retreating from entanglements around the globe. I'm not sure how anybody watching what's happening in Gaza and Ukraine could credibly make that statement.
  - eej71 2y ago
    I would describe America's support for Israel and Ukraine as rather restrained or half-hearted at best. So in that sense its a retreat.
- r00fus 2y ago
  I read that book and it get so much wrong. Its views on Russia for example have been completely flattened by the Ukraine invasion and response. Russia has successfully switched to a war economy, US companies that pulled out are co-opted by Russian ones and doing business in a more or less normal manner. Sanctions have failed, and pushed Russia closer to China (not to mention North Korea). When you view purely through the lens of demography, you can't extrapolate to global politics.
  - jncfhnb 2y ago
    Russia’s economy is in the toilet. It’s also very clearly not on a wartime economy still as evidenced by the tiny output of new material.
paganel 2y ago
You’re looking at it through the “money-only” (for lack of a better word) perspective when it comes to China’s geopolitical decisions, which in my view is entirely wrong. Don’t get me wrong, I see your view as understandable, because I assume you’re writing this from a Western country and it is known that the West has long put money above everything else, but that way of looking at things completely misses China. The same discussion can be applied almost identically to how Russia views its geopolitical interests.
themgt 2y ago
China has been reluctant to directly condemn the Houthis or publicly link them to Iran, but it has repeatedly voiced its disapproval, calling on all parties to respect the freedom of navigation and “stop attacking and disturbing civilian ships”. In January, the Chinese media outlet Global Times reported that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had said, “China has been making active efforts to ease the tension in the Red Sea.” Then a Reuters article claimed that China had communicated a vague but threatening statement to the Iranians: If Chinese vessels or economic interests were to be impacted by the Houthi attacks, it could harm Sino-Iranian business relations. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied the report, but Islamic Republican, an official Iranian newspaper, published an article criticising the “selfish demand” of the Chinese, claiming that China showed a willingness to “help the Zionist regime” and advised it not to “extend your legs beyond your own carpet”. (In other words, stay out of it.) The US keeps demanding China throw its weight behind getting the US and its allies out of the geopolitical quagmires we eagerly jumped into (and claimed we'd solve no problem, e.g. "Houthis FAFO"). It's getting pretty sad. Maybe the United States could use its leverage with Israel to enforce the UN Security Council resolution all members including the US and China voted for? Stop flooding our weapons into the illegal war destabilizing the region? But no. https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2024/3/6/china-does-not-have-the-leverage-to-end-the-red-sea-crisis-the-us-does https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2024/3/6/china-does-not-h...
- r00fus 2y ago
  Exactly - ceasefire and Ansarallah will stop. But Israel has to do its war.
maxglute 2y ago
PRC shipping are mostly unaffected by Houthis, they get to go through cheaper red sea route on lower insurance rates (at least in Feb) which they get to charge more because they have dibs on faster routes. They're triple dipping. So far global exports doing fine, costs largely gets passed onto consumers. Bonus watching global police USN fail to contain Houthis while gathering intel on US interception and sipping on cheap RU/IR energy for producer competitive advantage. It makes sense for PRC not to do anything, not that they could. Best they can do is mind their own business and arbitrage situation to their advantage, which appears to be net positive currently. E: Extra bonus: there seems to be assumption of prolonged disruption = global shipping needs to make up for distance with more hulls = record more orders of new ships from ship yards, of which PRC has ~50% marketshare.
password54321 2y ago
Right now the goal is to divide the US into multiple regions to overstretch them. Europe (Ukraine, Russia) where Crimea just got struck using US weapons and harming civilians, Middle East (Yemen, Israel, Palestine, very likely Lebanon soon and if that happens...) And Asia (Taiwan, South China Sea) where we have had an increase in hostilities recently.
- password54321 2y ago
  Also if it wasn't obvious all the dominoes started to fall with Russia and for a country that didn't even have a shot at joining the EU. It is incredible how much US foreign policy has failed.
  - unethical_ban 2y ago
    Your position is based on the assumption that Ukraine is an isolated affair.
- jncfhnb 2y ago
  The Crimean civilian injuries were due to Russia shooting down the missiles and knocking them off course, not using air sirens to warn civilians, not building shelters, and encouraging tourism in an active war zone.
  - mellow-lake-day 2y ago
    Not sure if it's stupidity on Russia's part or deliberately using civilians as cover in temporality occupied Crimea but it's not the first time Russia has placed military hardware near public beaches: https://www.newsweek.com/russia-crimea-air-defense-yevpatoria-photos-vacationers-1735611 https://www.newsweek.com/russia-crimea-air-defense-yevpatori... https://x.com/auto_glam/status/1804869425092313124 https://x.com/auto_glam/status/1804869425092313124 And as you highlighted this is Russia's own doing, as the damage was from its own air defense missiles
- rfrey 2y ago
  Whose goal? Is there some overarching cabal deciding that Russia is going to start a war, manipulating middle eastern politics, and making Chinese military plans?

bee_rider 2y ago

The article is paywalled, so I don’t know if they elaborate more on this; I’m just responding to your comment. I’m pretty sure these countries aren’t beloved allies of each other, right? China presumably could politely ask Iran, who’d have to weigh their priorities, and the Houthis might just keep launching rockets anyway, they aren’t exactly a branch of Iran’s military or anything.

jimbokun 2y ago
None of the groups projecting Iran's interests in the region are a branch of Iran's military or anything. Not the Houthis. Not Hezbollah. Not Hamas. It works better for Iran that way.
rasz 2y ago
Yes, Houthis might just ignore them and keep shooting <checks notes> Iranian made rockets delivered to them by Iran.
- jncfhnb 2y ago
  At targets requested by iran
- bee_rider 2y ago
  I’m sure Iran has sort of “priced in” the cost of doing this sort of stuff via proxy instead of directly, and part of that cost is that the proxies don’t always target exactly what you want.

lolinder 2y ago

What makes you think that China has much sway over Iran? The world isn't divided into the countries that are under American hegemony and the countries that are under Chinese hegemony. It's more that there are the countries under American hegemony, the countries on mostly-friendly terms with the Americans but able to say no to them, and the small number of countries that are entirely cut off by the USA. This last group tends to not want to just trade one hegemon for another, they try their best to become self-sufficient and able to say no to everyone. Iran is very much in that category: just because they're on friendlier terms with China than with the USA doesn't make them beholden to them.

rehitman 2y ago
You are correct, but a country like Iran doesn't have any trade partner other than China, so if China wants it can put enough pressure on them to stop. I.e., Iran will be forced to listen to China, not that it likes.
tzs 2y ago
Something like 70-80% of Iran's budget comes from oil sales, and around 90% of Iran's oil sales are to China. I'd guess that would make Iran take requests from China very seriously.
- AnimalMuppet 2y ago
  Or the other way around. It might make China take requests from Iran very seriously. Depends on whether China needs the oil worse than Iran needs the money. [Edit: I'm rate limited for my own good, so I'm replying to jimbokun here: Which do I think is more likely? I have no data. Particularly, I have no data about the elasticity of China's oil demand.]
  - jimbokun 2y ago
    Which do you think is more likely?
  - jncfhnb 2y ago

electric_mayhem 2y ago

I read a book a bit ago about deglobalization: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_the_World_Is_Just_the_Beginning https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_the_World_Is_Just_t... It makes a good case for, among other things, that once the US stops enforcing order on the seas, globally, that there’s going to be at best regional powers looking out for their own interests, only, and widespread piracy where even that is lacking. Draught is one thing, but if pirates attacking commercial ships aren’t being smacked down that’s pretty alarming and doesn’t bode well.

lizardking 2y ago
The problem with Zeihan's predictions is that they are predicated on the assumption that America is retreating from entanglements around the globe. I'm not sure how anybody watching what's happening in Gaza and Ukraine could credibly make that statement.
- eej71 2y ago
  I would describe America's support for Israel and Ukraine as rather restrained or half-hearted at best. So in that sense its a retreat.
r00fus 2y ago
I read that book and it get so much wrong. Its views on Russia for example have been completely flattened by the Ukraine invasion and response. Russia has successfully switched to a war economy, US companies that pulled out are co-opted by Russian ones and doing business in a more or less normal manner. Sanctions have failed, and pushed Russia closer to China (not to mention North Korea). When you view purely through the lens of demography, you can't extrapolate to global politics.
- jncfhnb 2y ago
  Russia’s economy is in the toilet. It’s also very clearly not on a wartime economy still as evidenced by the tiny output of new material.

paganel 2y ago

You’re looking at it through the “money-only” (for lack of a better word) perspective when it comes to China’s geopolitical decisions, which in my view is entirely wrong. Don’t get me wrong, I see your view as understandable, because I assume you’re writing this from a Western country and it is known that the West has long put money above everything else, but that way of looking at things completely misses China. The same discussion can be applied almost identically to how Russia views its geopolitical interests.

themgt 2y ago

China has been reluctant to directly condemn the Houthis or publicly link them to Iran, but it has repeatedly voiced its disapproval, calling on all parties to respect the freedom of navigation and “stop attacking and disturbing civilian ships”. In January, the Chinese media outlet Global Times reported that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had said, “China has been making active efforts to ease the tension in the Red Sea.” Then a Reuters article claimed that China had communicated a vague but threatening statement to the Iranians: If Chinese vessels or economic interests were to be impacted by the Houthi attacks, it could harm Sino-Iranian business relations. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied the report, but Islamic Republican, an official Iranian newspaper, published an article criticising the “selfish demand” of the Chinese, claiming that China showed a willingness to “help the Zionist regime” and advised it not to “extend your legs beyond your own carpet”. (In other words, stay out of it.) The US keeps demanding China throw its weight behind getting the US and its allies out of the geopolitical quagmires we eagerly jumped into (and claimed we'd solve no problem, e.g. "Houthis FAFO"). It's getting pretty sad. Maybe the United States could use its leverage with Israel to enforce the UN Security Council resolution all members including the US and China voted for? Stop flooding our weapons into the illegal war destabilizing the region? But no. https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2024/3/6/china-does-not-have-the-leverage-to-end-the-red-sea-crisis-the-us-does https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2024/3/6/china-does-not-h...

r00fus 2y ago
Exactly - ceasefire and Ansarallah will stop. But Israel has to do its war.

maxglute 2y ago

PRC shipping are mostly unaffected by Houthis, they get to go through cheaper red sea route on lower insurance rates (at least in Feb) which they get to charge more because they have dibs on faster routes. They're triple dipping. So far global exports doing fine, costs largely gets passed onto consumers. Bonus watching global police USN fail to contain Houthis while gathering intel on US interception and sipping on cheap RU/IR energy for producer competitive advantage. It makes sense for PRC not to do anything, not that they could. Best they can do is mind their own business and arbitrage situation to their advantage, which appears to be net positive currently. E: Extra bonus: there seems to be assumption of prolonged disruption = global shipping needs to make up for distance with more hulls = record more orders of new ships from ship yards, of which PRC has ~50% marketshare.

password54321 2y ago

Right now the goal is to divide the US into multiple regions to overstretch them. Europe (Ukraine, Russia) where Crimea just got struck using US weapons and harming civilians, Middle East (Yemen, Israel, Palestine, very likely Lebanon soon and if that happens...) And Asia (Taiwan, South China Sea) where we have had an increase in hostilities recently.

password54321 2y ago
Also if it wasn't obvious all the dominoes started to fall with Russia and for a country that didn't even have a shot at joining the EU. It is incredible how much US foreign policy has failed.
- unethical_ban 2y ago
  Your position is based on the assumption that Ukraine is an isolated affair.
jncfhnb 2y ago
The Crimean civilian injuries were due to Russia shooting down the missiles and knocking them off course, not using air sirens to warn civilians, not building shelters, and encouraging tourism in an active war zone.
- mellow-lake-day 2y ago
  Not sure if it's stupidity on Russia's part or deliberately using civilians as cover in temporality occupied Crimea but it's not the first time Russia has placed military hardware near public beaches: https://www.newsweek.com/russia-crimea-air-defense-yevpatoria-photos-vacationers-1735611 https://www.newsweek.com/russia-crimea-air-defense-yevpatori... https://x.com/auto_glam/status/1804869425092313124 https://x.com/auto_glam/status/1804869425092313124 And as you highlighted this is Russia's own doing, as the damage was from its own air defense missiles
rfrey 2y ago
Whose goal? Is there some overarching cabal deciding that Russia is going to start a war, manipulating middle eastern politics, and making Chinese military plans?