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Extreme Climate Impacts from Collapse of AMOC Could Be Worse Than Expected
- jmclnx 2y agoFrom what I have read articles in the past, "Freeze Europe" is not quite what the headline indicates. The cooling they said is based upon the higher world average. If the world average raises 3C, in Europe it could mean just a 1.5 or 2 C raise instead of 3.
- simmerup 2y agoAll good then. Business as usual.
- SJMG 2y agoThe article itself states, “You cannot adapt to this. There’s some studies of what happens to agriculture in Great Britain, and it becomes like trying to grow potatoes in Northern Norway.” So, in this case, the headline is accurately selling the article.
- burkaman 2y agoI'd recommend reading this article, as it's about a new study that would not have been included in the past articles you read. > Without warm water flowing toward the Arctic, he added, winter sea ice could expand as far south as England From the study itself (https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189): > Under the AMOC collapse, the Arctic (March) sea-ice pack extends down to 50°N Here's where 50°N intersects Europe: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/50th_parallel_north https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/50th_parallel_north
- masklinn 2y ago> From what I have read articles in the past, "Freeze Europe" is not quite what the headline indicates. Without the AMOC, western europe likely will have a climate more similar to NA at the same latitude. That means freezing in winter and burning in summer. London is on 51N, that's about the same as Calgary, compare the weather between the two. Calgary goes way, way colder in winter.
- AnimalMuppet 2y agoOK, but Calgary is far inland. Wouldn't London be more similar to Vancouver?
- BadHumans 2y agoI'm going to make this political, but as this is an election year for the US, Republicans have outright stated they will gut and destroy the EPA should they take the White House this year which would be disastrous for the climate.
- theossuary 2y agoProject 2025 exists, and should Trump win in November it will be implemented. They spell out a plan which would dismantle the EPA and rollback the goals set forth to avoid the worst outcomes of climate change (temperatures increasing at or over 2C within 100 years). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_2025
- Galaxeblaffer 2y agothat was a scary read.. i guess reform is needed but not like that
- giantg2 2y agoI think you mean Trump wants to implement Agenda 47. There is overlap with Project 2025, but they are different.
- theossuary 2y agoYes Agenda 47 is Trump's proposed agenda should he win; Project 2025 would be the platform of the Republican party as a whole should he win. The Heritage Foundation has been using purity tests within the Republican Party for years to force politicians in line, and will continue to do so to push forward Project 2025.
- giantg2 2y ago"Project 2025 would be the platform of the Republican party as a whole should he win." That's just your conjecture. It seems unlikely that would be the platform for the party in its entirety. Parts of it, maybe. The party didn't set anything like this the last time. I'd expect a similar lack of cohesion and following Trump this time. Agenda 47 is the most probable.
- Pelam 2y ago[flagged]
- sailingparrot 2y agoYou are tired of the discussions being derailed, so you decided to preemptively derail them from now on?
- layer8 2y agoHow does your comment incentivize effective action?
- Pelam 2y agoFair points and I accept the minus votes. I just feel a bit desperate at the monent. And I live in a place likely to be the best places to have civilization to survive. Trying a random thing to shake the discussion on some relatively influential forum onto some novel tracks is one thing to try. Last time my post was a bit longer and ellicited some interesting information. One positive thing was this one claim that by some projection climate enissions might start finally going down in 2025 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40415541 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40415541
- giantg2 2y agoThis stuff is kind of interesting to read about. I don't like my job and reading about these scenarios makes it feel like what's the point. If it's going to happen, just do it now so that I don't end up working a job I hate just to have the apocalyptic scenarios ruin my retirement. Better to just happen now and get it over with before I waste those years toiling.
- layer8 2y agoYou should put your energy into finding a better job (read: one that brings you some enjoyment and fulfillment). That’s no way to live.
- exe34 2y agoif you're waiting for retirement to enjoy your life, you're doing it wrong. you might die tomorrow and it'll all have been for nothing. don't get me wrong, it's all pointless anyway, but if there's something you want from life, don't put it off - you don't even know if your health will be any good by the time you retire, much less the state of the economy or the biosphere.
- giantg2 2y agoEh, I don't know. It seems like most of the people enjoying life now are people who either make thier money off of others, or offload the externalities of their actions onto others. Seems like my life and level of enjoyment is pretty average.
- Ajay-p 2y agoAnd then there's this on the front page of HN https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adh8369 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adh8369 which says that "Major disruption of the Atlantic overturning circulation (AOMC) is not expected" Which is it?
- deadbabe 2y agoThe one you feed
- layer8 2y agoIt’s expected to not be a major disruption, but it also could be worse than expected. There is no contradiction.
- abdullahkhalids 2y agoThis paper is specifically investigating if ice melt in Greenland is strong enough to reverse the AOMC. The editor summarizes, > However, because melting is causing the Greenland Ice Sheet to recede from the coasts of Greenland, where icebergs originate, its iceberg discharge should not persist long enough to cause major disruption of the Atlantic overturning circulation by itself. That leaves that possibility that Greenland ice melt + other factors are sufficient to cause AOMC reversal.
- ldehaan 2y ago[dead]