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Robotaxis are "a real business"? Maybe in the future, but not yet. From the article: > But even the most bullish believers in autonomous transportation acknowl

by ripe 2y ago

Robotaxis are "a real business"? Maybe in the future, but not yet. From the article: > But even the most bullish believers in autonomous transportation acknowledge the tech still has a ways to go before it’s reliable enough for widespread deployment on U.S. roads.

xvedejas 2y ago
They're the present here in SF, driving every day and more safely than the humans do. And as a human driver, I can testify that these streets are not particularly easy to drive on.
- robotnikman 2y ago
  They are here in the Phoenix area too and I have not seen and issues with them. However, we are blessed by sunny weather 99% of the time. I think the biggest challenges will be having them drive in adverse weather conditions present throughout the rest of the country, such as blizzards, hail, torrential rain, dense fog.
  - hnburnsy 2y ago
    Not just sunny weather, but straight streets laid out in a N/S and E/W pattern, very little grade, and consistent numbering\naming across cities.
  - arebop 2y ago
    We have abundant fog and seasonal rain in SF, but not much hail or snow. That's why they've done winter testing in Tahoe (since 2017) and Buffalo NY (last winter).
  - jeffbee 2y ago
    Waymo is likely already better than a upper-quartile meat module under those conditions. https://x.com/Boenau/status/1795495310170685915 https://x.com/Boenau/status/1795495310170685915
  - chpatrick 2y ago
    I used one when it was somehow raining in Phoenix and it worked fine apart from being a bit confused by a puddle when stopping.
  - cut3 2y ago
    Oh they have issues. Waymos are super janky when they are in parking lots, often just sitting in the middle of the driving lane waiting for their fare. I dont think they know how to park in a lot correctly. It is also funny to watch them get stuck behind busses, having followed too close to safely go around them when the bus stops to pickup/dropoff. Also Ive seen multiple instances of them trying to turn left on red and pull far enough into an intersection to cause issues. Finally when I am on my skateboard they dont seem to recognize me as they drive very very close and fast, though I havent felt risky enough to really test this.
    - Karrot_Kream 2y ago
      Interesting, as a cyclist Waymos have always been very aware of me and usually slow down for me if I've taken the lane, and stop for me if it's starting to move after picking up someone but sees me pass. I wonder if their training set doesn't have enough skateboarders.
  - 8note 2y ago
    I don't think blizzards, hail, torrential rain, and dense fog will be particularly challenging for waymos, at least not keeping the card driving in a controlled a predictable state. The hard thing is that every other human car acts randomly because they don't say, have winter tires, and unlike waymo, don't have the very quick control loop.
  - seanmcdirmid 2y ago
    You know, that’s a challenge for human drivers as well. Try getting an Uber during those weather events, their might be one or two running crazily to get super surge pricing when there are usually a few hundred.
- clpm4j 2y ago
  Yes, they're actually awesome. 'Waymo' has replaced 'Uber' in my vocabulary, e.g. "Let's just Waymo there".
  - a0986373 2y ago
    How much does the average trip go for distances such as your use case?
    - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
      > How much does the average trip go for distances such as your use case? They seem to undercut Uber and Lyft by a hair. Given the longer wait times, and lack of a need to tip, that seems fair. (In San Francisco, they undercut by a wider margin. But human ride shares are more expensive there for a variety of reasons.)
      - brrwind 2y ago
        That's not my experience. I've rarely seen a comparably priced ride. They're usually at least 50% more expensive than Uber or Lyft.
        JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > usually at least 50% more expensive than Uber or Lyft Hmm, I used them this weekend and was comparing pricing. Waymo was cheaper. That said, I wasn’t riding during peak traffic. And in peak traffic, I’d vastly prefer a Waymo. So I get the premium pricing.
        philkrie 2y ago
        In my experience it seems that the price floor is higher, but the ceiling is lower. Short rides (~10 min) that might cost 8-9$ (before tip) on Uber / Lyft, cost $18-20 on Waymo. If I'm going to the other side of San Francisco (say, North Beach to Stonestown), it will be $33-35. I've never seen it in the $40s-50s as I often do with Uber / Lyft for long distance trips during surge pricing. But that's just anecdotal.
okdood64 2y ago
FWIW: I feel safer driving and walking by to one than I do the average human driver.
- xvedejas 2y ago
  The 1% worst human drivers are really quite unpredictable. You're never certain with any human driver whether they're going to drive like a maniac, but you do know you're not getting that with a Waymo.
  - ok_dad 2y ago
    With a human I can look at their face to see that they see me. How do I know a robot sees me? Do they have indications that say “I see you and won’t drive” like a driver looking at you in the face and waving?
    - xvedejas 2y ago
      As a cyclist/pedestrian I'm used to drivers ignoring me anyway, YMMV
    - int0x29 2y ago
      With tinted windows and glare I already can't see like 75% of drivers. At least driverless cars reliably signal so I don't have to do pose estimation with the front wheels to cross the street. Also they aren't on their phones.
      - fragmede 2y ago
        Streaming live video non-stop to the Internet, arguably Waymos are "on the phone" more than humans :p
      - ok_dad 2y ago
        So answer my question, how do I know the Waymo sees me? With a human I can tell 90% of the time where I live (we have tint laws and stuff). I can’t see trusting that a robot sees me, otherwise I guess I’m just giving deference to them now? At least with humans I can see if they are distracted, I can yell at them to get attention, perhaps others. With a robot taxi, I can’t tell anything about it, and I’m a software dev so I absolutely don’t trust anything running software made by a corporation in search of profits, or any other software really, to operate a car in open roads. Not yet at least, maybe in a few decades.
lvspiff 2y ago
I was blown away going around Tempe/Scottsdale - Waymos everywhere with people walking around, crossing streets randomly to get to a spring training game, doing bar crawls (it was st patricks day) and what blew me away was they pulled up in front of hotel and even made a quick u-turn to get out of the parking lot. I mean this is really impressive stuff. The future is now imho. I will give tempe/scottsdale credit though - they have their roads around the major tourist hubs in GREAT shape - the lines crisp and the lights bright and new - I think it makes it much easier for a waymo to get around.
- boc 2y ago
  Waymos do the same thing in SF where the streets are much denser, traffic is weirder, hills are way steeper, and the roads aren't in perfect shape by any means. The amount of impressive navigation I've seen around delivery trucks, weird construction patterns, etc has been pretty wild. They seem way ahead of the other options on the road.
  - dboreham 2y ago
    Could some of that impressive driving have been done by remote human operators?
    - boc 2y ago
      Not from what I've seen - it happens in real-time just like most human drivers. I don't believe that a remote controlled operator is even permitted, but I could be wrong. Waymos drive fairly fast and aggressively in rush hour traffic too, which is why I enjoy sharing the road with them. I was initially worried they'd drive like a grandma but that hasn't been the case. Also as a cyclist I enjoy riding near them because they know I'm there and they give you enough space in the bike lane.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
JumpCrisscross 2y ago
Cars are a real business despite being unable to navigate open water. What matters is that it’s profitable, not whether it works everywhere. Waymo appears to be unit profitable on a cash basis. (It’s far from recouping its investment into R&D.)
TillE 2y ago
"Robo taxis" as they currently exist are pretty obviously not the long term goal, it's not an interesting business, it's just an easy test platform that recoups some costs. The real business is an entire transit system, with purpose-built vehicles of various sizes, centralized routing, etc.
drewg123 2y ago
I took one in Chandler last year, and it was amazing. Especially in combination with my Tesla and its "Full Self Driving". It kept up with traffic, turned confidently, yielded to pedestrians, etc. The biggest (only?) complaint I had is that it would not pickup/dropoff at the curb at our hotel. So if it was raining, we'd have had to walk out in the rain to meet the car in a parking spot.
jonathanberger 2y ago
Does a business have to be widely deployed or profitable to be real? The public and private capital markets say "no". If you were to ignore any business that isn't widely available you'd miss the beginning of both Apple and Facebook. Waymo is a real business serving 50,000 rides each week delivering paying customers to their destination. If you haven't tried it yet, the product is amazing. Private, doesn't cancel, safe, and smooth. I will never take Uber again if I have the choice.
- ripe 2y ago
  How many humans are involved in this so-called driverless service? Waymo won’t say, but Cruise admitted [1] that about 1.5 people were actively monitoring and ready to take over control for every Cruise car. That’s not a sustainable business. How much money is Waymo bleeding every quarter? Maybe the investors don’t care, but it’s relevant if you want to call it a real business. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38145997 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38145997
- Detrytus 2y ago
  Profitability is my definition of "real business" vs. for example, a lot of SV unicorns: if the business cannot sustain itself financially from its core revenue stream, and needs cash injections from "investors" then it's a pyramid scheme, not a business.
akira2501 2y ago
Fortune is where you go to buy fantasy headlines. If Fortune says it out loud, you know, it's almost certainly false, but someone somewhere really wants you to be fooled.

by ripe 2y ago

xvedejas 2y ago

They're the present here in SF, driving every day and more safely than the humans do. And as a human driver, I can testify that these streets are not particularly easy to drive on.

robotnikman 2y ago
They are here in the Phoenix area too and I have not seen and issues with them. However, we are blessed by sunny weather 99% of the time. I think the biggest challenges will be having them drive in adverse weather conditions present throughout the rest of the country, such as blizzards, hail, torrential rain, dense fog.
- hnburnsy 2y ago
  Not just sunny weather, but straight streets laid out in a N/S and E/W pattern, very little grade, and consistent numbering\naming across cities.
- arebop 2y ago
  We have abundant fog and seasonal rain in SF, but not much hail or snow. That's why they've done winter testing in Tahoe (since 2017) and Buffalo NY (last winter).
- jeffbee 2y ago
  Waymo is likely already better than a upper-quartile meat module under those conditions. https://x.com/Boenau/status/1795495310170685915 https://x.com/Boenau/status/1795495310170685915
- chpatrick 2y ago
  I used one when it was somehow raining in Phoenix and it worked fine apart from being a bit confused by a puddle when stopping.
- cut3 2y ago
  Oh they have issues. Waymos are super janky when they are in parking lots, often just sitting in the middle of the driving lane waiting for their fare. I dont think they know how to park in a lot correctly. It is also funny to watch them get stuck behind busses, having followed too close to safely go around them when the bus stops to pickup/dropoff. Also Ive seen multiple instances of them trying to turn left on red and pull far enough into an intersection to cause issues. Finally when I am on my skateboard they dont seem to recognize me as they drive very very close and fast, though I havent felt risky enough to really test this.
  - Karrot_Kream 2y ago
    Interesting, as a cyclist Waymos have always been very aware of me and usually slow down for me if I've taken the lane, and stop for me if it's starting to move after picking up someone but sees me pass. I wonder if their training set doesn't have enough skateboarders.
- 8note 2y ago
  I don't think blizzards, hail, torrential rain, and dense fog will be particularly challenging for waymos, at least not keeping the card driving in a controlled a predictable state. The hard thing is that every other human car acts randomly because they don't say, have winter tires, and unlike waymo, don't have the very quick control loop.
- seanmcdirmid 2y ago
  You know, that’s a challenge for human drivers as well. Try getting an Uber during those weather events, their might be one or two running crazily to get super surge pricing when there are usually a few hundred.
clpm4j 2y ago
Yes, they're actually awesome. 'Waymo' has replaced 'Uber' in my vocabulary, e.g. "Let's just Waymo there".
- a0986373 2y ago
  How much does the average trip go for distances such as your use case?
  - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
    > How much does the average trip go for distances such as your use case? They seem to undercut Uber and Lyft by a hair. Given the longer wait times, and lack of a need to tip, that seems fair. (In San Francisco, they undercut by a wider margin. But human ride shares are more expensive there for a variety of reasons.)
    - brrwind 2y ago
      That's not my experience. I've rarely seen a comparably priced ride. They're usually at least 50% more expensive than Uber or Lyft.
      - JumpCrisscross 2y ago
        > usually at least 50% more expensive than Uber or Lyft Hmm, I used them this weekend and was comparing pricing. Waymo was cheaper. That said, I wasn’t riding during peak traffic. And in peak traffic, I’d vastly prefer a Waymo. So I get the premium pricing.
      - philkrie 2y ago
        In my experience it seems that the price floor is higher, but the ceiling is lower. Short rides (~10 min) that might cost 8-9$ (before tip) on Uber / Lyft, cost $18-20 on Waymo. If I'm going to the other side of San Francisco (say, North Beach to Stonestown), it will be $33-35. I've never seen it in the $40s-50s as I often do with Uber / Lyft for long distance trips during surge pricing. But that's just anecdotal.

okdood64 2y ago

FWIW: I feel safer driving and walking by to one than I do the average human driver.

xvedejas 2y ago
The 1% worst human drivers are really quite unpredictable. You're never certain with any human driver whether they're going to drive like a maniac, but you do know you're not getting that with a Waymo.
- ok_dad 2y ago
  With a human I can look at their face to see that they see me. How do I know a robot sees me? Do they have indications that say “I see you and won’t drive” like a driver looking at you in the face and waving?
  - xvedejas 2y ago
    As a cyclist/pedestrian I'm used to drivers ignoring me anyway, YMMV
  - int0x29 2y ago
    With tinted windows and glare I already can't see like 75% of drivers. At least driverless cars reliably signal so I don't have to do pose estimation with the front wheels to cross the street. Also they aren't on their phones.
    - fragmede 2y ago
      Streaming live video non-stop to the Internet, arguably Waymos are "on the phone" more than humans :p
    - ok_dad 2y ago
      So answer my question, how do I know the Waymo sees me? With a human I can tell 90% of the time where I live (we have tint laws and stuff). I can’t see trusting that a robot sees me, otherwise I guess I’m just giving deference to them now? At least with humans I can see if they are distracted, I can yell at them to get attention, perhaps others. With a robot taxi, I can’t tell anything about it, and I’m a software dev so I absolutely don’t trust anything running software made by a corporation in search of profits, or any other software really, to operate a car in open roads. Not yet at least, maybe in a few decades.

lvspiff 2y ago

I was blown away going around Tempe/Scottsdale - Waymos everywhere with people walking around, crossing streets randomly to get to a spring training game, doing bar crawls (it was st patricks day) and what blew me away was they pulled up in front of hotel and even made a quick u-turn to get out of the parking lot. I mean this is really impressive stuff. The future is now imho. I will give tempe/scottsdale credit though - they have their roads around the major tourist hubs in GREAT shape - the lines crisp and the lights bright and new - I think it makes it much easier for a waymo to get around.

boc 2y ago
Waymos do the same thing in SF where the streets are much denser, traffic is weirder, hills are way steeper, and the roads aren't in perfect shape by any means. The amount of impressive navigation I've seen around delivery trucks, weird construction patterns, etc has been pretty wild. They seem way ahead of the other options on the road.
- dboreham 2y ago
  Could some of that impressive driving have been done by remote human operators?
  - boc 2y ago
    Not from what I've seen - it happens in real-time just like most human drivers. I don't believe that a remote controlled operator is even permitted, but I could be wrong. Waymos drive fairly fast and aggressively in rush hour traffic too, which is why I enjoy sharing the road with them. I was initially worried they'd drive like a grandma but that hasn't been the case. Also as a cyclist I enjoy riding near them because they know I'm there and they give you enough space in the bike lane.

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

JumpCrisscross 2y ago

Cars are a real business despite being unable to navigate open water. What matters is that it’s profitable, not whether it works everywhere. Waymo appears to be unit profitable on a cash basis. (It’s far from recouping its investment into R&D.)

TillE 2y ago

"Robo taxis" as they currently exist are pretty obviously not the long term goal, it's not an interesting business, it's just an easy test platform that recoups some costs. The real business is an entire transit system, with purpose-built vehicles of various sizes, centralized routing, etc.

drewg123 2y ago

I took one in Chandler last year, and it was amazing. Especially in combination with my Tesla and its "Full Self Driving". It kept up with traffic, turned confidently, yielded to pedestrians, etc. The biggest (only?) complaint I had is that it would not pickup/dropoff at the curb at our hotel. So if it was raining, we'd have had to walk out in the rain to meet the car in a parking spot.

jonathanberger 2y ago

Does a business have to be widely deployed or profitable to be real? The public and private capital markets say "no". If you were to ignore any business that isn't widely available you'd miss the beginning of both Apple and Facebook. Waymo is a real business serving 50,000 rides each week delivering paying customers to their destination. If you haven't tried it yet, the product is amazing. Private, doesn't cancel, safe, and smooth. I will never take Uber again if I have the choice.

ripe 2y ago
How many humans are involved in this so-called driverless service? Waymo won’t say, but Cruise admitted [1] that about 1.5 people were actively monitoring and ready to take over control for every Cruise car. That’s not a sustainable business. How much money is Waymo bleeding every quarter? Maybe the investors don’t care, but it’s relevant if you want to call it a real business. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38145997 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38145997
Detrytus 2y ago
Profitability is my definition of "real business" vs. for example, a lot of SV unicorns: if the business cannot sustain itself financially from its core revenue stream, and needs cash injections from "investors" then it's a pyramid scheme, not a business.

akira2501 2y ago

Fortune is where you go to buy fantasy headlines. If Fortune says it out loud, you know, it's almost certainly false, but someone somewhere really wants you to be fooled.