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People aren't stupid. What we have in the world in general (not just Asia) is a crisis in hopelessness. People are facing crippling student debt (depending on

by jmyeet 2y ago

People aren't stupid. What we have in the world in general (not just Asia) is a crisis in hopelessness. People are facing crippling student debt (depending on your country), one bad medical incident away from being homeless, crippling housing costs and wages that barely cover costs such that you need 1-2 "side hustles" just to make ends meet. It's really no wonder people are checking out. It's also no wonder that people aren't having children either. They simply can't afford to. One common counterargument to this is that consumer spending is up but that really makes my point: people are spending now instead of saving because they have no future.

anovikov 2y ago
But this all is so evidently untrue! Stock of accumulated capital is growing healthily which means savings rate is healthy too, even if most of savings is just reinvestment of profits from previous ones. Consumption of almost everything is growing in real terms too in almost all countries. GDP keeps growing just about everywhere save for a few most unlucky places like UK. Even inequality is falling for the first time in decades so the poor people actually see most improvement (especially in the US). That 'hopelessness' is what people call 'vibecession'. People just taught themselves - probably by going through too much doomscrolling - that things are bad. But they aren't. We are probably living through best times in our lifetime - especially the common folk, poor and working class (some highly educated, high income occupations might be on shaky ground). MAYBE, just maybe, upper middle class is a bit fucked indeed, but this is a small group numerically and hikikomori do not come from there. I'm glad i'm not on social media but whenever i'm trying to read so-called 'news', i also get depressed for a bit. People are trying to present absolutely everything in the most negative sense possible probably because otherwise it's not clickbait-y enough...
- bluefirebrand 2y ago
  GDP or savings rates don't matter to individuals who are spending all of their money on food and rent Countries and corporations reporting strong financial health does not help the people who are living paycheck to paycheck It's very out of touch to suggest otherwise
- yoyohello13 2y ago
  Maybe GDP, consumption, and corporate profits are not correlated to human happiness.
- jmyeet 2y ago
  > Stock of accumulated capital is growing healthily How are you defining "accumulated capital"? Because in wealth and income terms, inequality has only been growing [1]. Specifically, does accumulated capital include paper gains in housing values of your primary residence? If so, that's misleading. Housing is a basic need. If you buy a house for $200k and it has gone up in value to $500k, you might say you've accumulated $300k in unrealized capital gains. Thing is, what would you do if you sold it? You'd still have to buy a house somewhere. And if every other house also costs $500k, what have you really gained? You might be paying higher property taxes, higher insurance costs and possibly higher mortgage costs. > Consumption of almost everything is growing in real terms too in almost all countries. I addressed this. People aren't saving for their future. > GDP keeps growing just about everywhere And who benefits from that? Let's say your wages have gone up 25% in real terms, where is that money going? If it's just more rent to your landlord, then you'e gained nothing and someone else is simply exploiting more of the value you've created. > Even inequality is falling for the first time in decades No, it's not. See the link. > We are probably living through best times in our lifetime By pretty much any objective measure, we peaked in about 1972. Since then real wages have largely stagnated and the quality of life has gone down. [1]: https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/ https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/01/09/trends-...
  - anovikov 2y ago
    That's the thing. Inequality quickly dropped in the last 4 years. Over 40% of inequality growth accumulated since 1979 has been cancelled out in just 4 years. And, sure enough, by every possible metric, in 50 years, quality of life has improved everywhere, for every income bracket. It's utter lunacy to suggest otherwise. With the U.S. real GDP per capita growing 2.5x since, there is simply no way for any place or any social group to feel worse, by any possible metric, even if cherrypicking. And, it's not worse than world average. Even since 1991 when situation has probably been strategically the best for America, it did not fall behind the world economically (China made a quantum leap, but Latin America and ex-Soviet sphere, has fallen way behind) As for housing, well, housing never grew in price above average inflation and it does not grow that way now, either. Inflation-adjusted square foot price in US and almost all Western countries have remained stagnant for ~50 years. In UK, yes, it is different. Australia too. If people are unhappy with economic situation today, nothing will ever be enough for them.
yazzku 2y ago
> People are facing crippling student debt (depending on your country), one bad medical incident away from being homeless. Both of these are U.S.
- Apocryphon 2y ago
  On the other hand, housing being very expensive feels like a universal phenomenon now.
  - tetris11 2y ago
    Perhaps tangentially related, but today my landlord gave the final inspection of the place. He told us that it pained him that we could only live there for a year. We were his cash cow. The year before, his wife had died, and he needed more family support and his daughter wanted a place near him. He told me that only a few years ago he would have simply built her a house next to the one he was renting us, but even building costs have skyrocketed so much that the only option he had was to kick us out and let her in. He said he was sorry, and the thing is, I believed him.

by jmyeet 2y ago

anovikov 2y ago

But this all is so evidently untrue! Stock of accumulated capital is growing healthily which means savings rate is healthy too, even if most of savings is just reinvestment of profits from previous ones. Consumption of almost everything is growing in real terms too in almost all countries. GDP keeps growing just about everywhere save for a few most unlucky places like UK. Even inequality is falling for the first time in decades so the poor people actually see most improvement (especially in the US). That 'hopelessness' is what people call 'vibecession'. People just taught themselves - probably by going through too much doomscrolling - that things are bad. But they aren't. We are probably living through best times in our lifetime - especially the common folk, poor and working class (some highly educated, high income occupations might be on shaky ground). MAYBE, just maybe, upper middle class is a bit fucked indeed, but this is a small group numerically and hikikomori do not come from there. I'm glad i'm not on social media but whenever i'm trying to read so-called 'news', i also get depressed for a bit. People are trying to present absolutely everything in the most negative sense possible probably because otherwise it's not clickbait-y enough...

bluefirebrand 2y ago
GDP or savings rates don't matter to individuals who are spending all of their money on food and rent Countries and corporations reporting strong financial health does not help the people who are living paycheck to paycheck It's very out of touch to suggest otherwise
yoyohello13 2y ago
Maybe GDP, consumption, and corporate profits are not correlated to human happiness.
jmyeet 2y ago
> Stock of accumulated capital is growing healthily How are you defining "accumulated capital"? Because in wealth and income terms, inequality has only been growing [1]. Specifically, does accumulated capital include paper gains in housing values of your primary residence? If so, that's misleading. Housing is a basic need. If you buy a house for $200k and it has gone up in value to $500k, you might say you've accumulated $300k in unrealized capital gains. Thing is, what would you do if you sold it? You'd still have to buy a house somewhere. And if every other house also costs $500k, what have you really gained? You might be paying higher property taxes, higher insurance costs and possibly higher mortgage costs. > Consumption of almost everything is growing in real terms too in almost all countries. I addressed this. People aren't saving for their future. > GDP keeps growing just about everywhere And who benefits from that? Let's say your wages have gone up 25% in real terms, where is that money going? If it's just more rent to your landlord, then you'e gained nothing and someone else is simply exploiting more of the value you've created. > Even inequality is falling for the first time in decades No, it's not. See the link. > We are probably living through best times in our lifetime By pretty much any objective measure, we peaked in about 1972. Since then real wages have largely stagnated and the quality of life has gone down. [1]: https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/01/09/trends-in-income-and-wealth-inequality/ https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/01/09/trends-...
- anovikov 2y ago
  That's the thing. Inequality quickly dropped in the last 4 years. Over 40% of inequality growth accumulated since 1979 has been cancelled out in just 4 years. And, sure enough, by every possible metric, in 50 years, quality of life has improved everywhere, for every income bracket. It's utter lunacy to suggest otherwise. With the U.S. real GDP per capita growing 2.5x since, there is simply no way for any place or any social group to feel worse, by any possible metric, even if cherrypicking. And, it's not worse than world average. Even since 1991 when situation has probably been strategically the best for America, it did not fall behind the world economically (China made a quantum leap, but Latin America and ex-Soviet sphere, has fallen way behind) As for housing, well, housing never grew in price above average inflation and it does not grow that way now, either. Inflation-adjusted square foot price in US and almost all Western countries have remained stagnant for ~50 years. In UK, yes, it is different. Australia too. If people are unhappy with economic situation today, nothing will ever be enough for them.

yazzku 2y ago

> People are facing crippling student debt (depending on your country), one bad medical incident away from being homeless. Both of these are U.S.

Apocryphon 2y ago
On the other hand, housing being very expensive feels like a universal phenomenon now.
- tetris11 2y ago
  Perhaps tangentially related, but today my landlord gave the final inspection of the place. He told us that it pained him that we could only live there for a year. We were his cash cow. The year before, his wife had died, and he needed more family support and his daughter wanted a place near him. He told me that only a few years ago he would have simply built her a house next to the one he was renting us, but even building costs have skyrocketed so much that the only option he had was to kick us out and let her in. He said he was sorry, and the thing is, I believed him.