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Show HN: I built a website to create financial models for any stock online
- beeboobaa3 2y agoIf this worked you wouldn't be selling access, especially not for a one-time fee of $10. You'd be making millions. You could probably get away with charging a subscription fee.
- trevzercap 2y agoI am not advertising this as a stock price predictor. This is for people to make valuation models on stocks but the valuation depends on user input.
- jvanderbot 2y agoGreat way to test a lot of models, then use subscription fees to fund a bot based on the best performing ones. A few "trading api" shops did this last time I looked into it.
- bonestamp2 2y agoI'm interesting in learning more about individual stock investing. I mean, I've been doing it for years, but more just on hype. I've been very successful, but I do very little research on fundamentals and I want to do more of that. So, your tool sounds interesting, but I don't know enough to use it. Do you have a tutorial video or anything that might walk me through a user story on how somebody would use your tool? Or, do you know of a good fundamentals course that would give me the knowledge to be a customer of your tool?
- trevzercap 2y agoHey, thank you for the compliment. Aswath Damodaran is a professor at NYU and puts out a lot of good content on valuation. You should check him out.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- jstanley 2y agoTwo economists were walking down the street. The first economist spotted a £20 note on the ground and stopped to pick it up. The second economist asked "why are you stopping?". The first economist said "to pick up this £20 note". The second economist replied "don't be stupid, if there was a £20 note on the ground somebody would already have taken it". The first economist considered this for a moment, then nodded, and they both walked on.
- ijidak 2y agoThese statements are hilarious. You're assuming that every human on earth is extremely selfish. If what you say is true, there would be no teachers in the world. Because most teachers make less than the students they teach. There are unselfish people out there.
- trevzercap 2y agoSorry everyone! And thank you! Due to high volume I am hitting my API limits. If you are getting a server error that is why. The limit resets ever minute so please wait and try again.
- codegeek 2y agoAlways be mindful of this when submitting to HN. The real test of traffic surge. Right now, it is of not much use as it just gives server error.
- trevzercap 2y agoHaha yeah, I will have to upgrade my api limit. Thank you!
- jb1991 2y agoNo need to rain on their parade. As if they are not already now aware of this.
- nescioquid 2y agoThis caught out the current Show HN poster, so I imagine the comment could be useful to future Show HN posters. Besides, the comment wasn't unkind to the present poster and is actually kind to future posters, so the admonishment and down-votes seem unwarranted.
- jb1991 2y agoMy tip is to re-evaluate why you think you are getting downvoted to better understand your tone and wording rather than assume the downvotes are not warranted.
- nescioquid 2y agoI'm not the one getting down-voted.
- adsdfdfsa 2y agoNoice! Where do you get your data?
- xyzzy4747 2y agoThe landing page doesn’t work well on mobile.
- trevzercap 2y agoYup, tbh this was my first time building a UI lol. I plan to improve the mobile experience if it gets decent traction.
- xyzzy4747 2y agoUse tailwind.css, it's the best way. Then do breakpoints such as md: and lg: in the class names. And lots of flex box.
- camhart 2y ago> best way It's simply a way. There are "plenty of ways to skin a cat". Best is highly debatable. I'd argue best is relative given the dev's experience and interest. Might be best if the dev was you.
- scarface_74 2y ago[flagged]
- trevzercap 2y agoNothing wrong with index investing! I personally like to pick stocks as a hobby but most of my investments are in good old indexes!
- scarface_74 2y agoI am all for hobby investing. I like playing with numbers (no sarcasm intended) and stock picking as a hobby is understandable as is sports betting.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- pvg 2y agoPlease don't post shallow dismissals, especially of other people's work. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- scarface_74 2y agoWhat’s shallow about it? If someone posted “Twitter for pets” should we all just instinctively applaud it? I posted links from respectable publications - the WSJ included - supporting my comment. It’s been well known for decades that almost everyone sucks at “analyzing stocks” using any methodology.
- pvg 2y agoshould we all just instinctively applaud it? No. Which is in the site docs as well: When something isn't good, you needn't pretend that it is, but don't be gratuitously negative. But more importantly, what makes your comment shallow is not the ostensible depth and heft of your links, it's that it shows little evidence of having looked at the thing being showhn - it's a thread-invariant trope. If someone does a Show HN for a Twitter for pets you are not required to applaud it, instinctively or otherwise, but you are asked to not reflexively dismiss it in thread comments. Critique is fair game, of course.
- garyfirestorm 2y agoyour model is bonkers NVDA - Current Price: $921.93 | Projected Price: $30,082.68 | Difference: 3,163.01%
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- usernamed7 2y agoIf the AI says it it must be true. For the sake of my portfolio, fingers crossed.
- dvfjsdhgfv 2y agoJust wanted to chime in that I hope this ridiculous prophecy holds up!
- trevzercap 2y agolol I hope so to! there is no AI on the model though. Pro users can have an AI fill in the model for them. But the base model you see when you load up a stock is just projecting the previous years metrics out 5 years!
- trevzercap 2y agoHey, the model starts with the previous years growth numbers projected out 5 years. You are meant to give your assumptions to get to a valuation. NVDA revenue grew 125% last year so projecting that out for 5 straight years results in a very high value but is most likely inaccurate!
- bonestamp2 2y agoIt sounds like a couple people in this thread have misunderstood how to use your tool. Perhaps you want to hide the projected numbers at least until they start to put in their own assumptions.
- trevzercap 2y ago
- khaki54 2y agoTaking the defaults Boeing is going to -424 a share. Will check this out again later when I can actually try some sane numbers
- trevzercap 2y agoHi, DCF models are not very effective when a company is cashflow negative. That can result in weird looking values. On the last tab of the model you can switch the exit multiple to look at EV-Sales which will work better on a cashflow negative business like Boeing. Doing this with the model defaults results in a value of $149. Thanks for checking it out!
- mschuster91 2y agoThat's where this company should end up in any fair world, given all the evidence pointing to intentional misconduct and structural governance issues as a cause for multiple fatal crashes and other serious incidents. Snark aside, this may just be a case of Boeing's numbers being distorted by its business model and airlines paying only on delivery of airplanes (which has been seriously cut back due to regulators imposing production stops and caps as a result of all its issues for years now), but Boeing having to pay their vendors upon receipt of parts. Besides, anything aviation is a financial accounting shenanigans party. Many airlines, for example, are "loss leaders" - the money actually comes from their "reward programs" and credit cards [1], a practice that's been going on for decades now [2]. [1] https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/09/airlines-banks-mileage-programs/675374/ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/09/airlines-b... [2] https://airlinegeeks.com/2021/12/17/here-s-why-airline-loyalty-programs-are-profit-machines/ https://airlinegeeks.com/2021/12/17/here-s-why-airline-loyal...
- TradingPlaces 2y agoEveryone: This is a nice simple interface for making a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, and the pro version lets you export that to Excel. There’s still a lot of work to fill in those fields. More on DCF: https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/valuation/dcf-formula-guide/ https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/valuation/dc... OP: What are “AI Models"
- trevzercap 2y agoHi, the pro version allows you to tell an AI what you think aboout the company and it will fill in the DCF model for you. So you can say, "I think AAPL will have strong growth over the next 5 years, they will also see costs go down as xyz will happen" and the AI will use your assumptions to fill in the DCF
- TradingPlaces 2y agoThanks for clearing that up
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- ArtTimeInvestor 2y agoIm skeptical whether these types of models can help you make better investment decisions. The fate of a company usually hinges on some fundamental question. For Apple it is whether they can stay a prominent platform that can capture a significant portion of the value created on it. For Tesla it is how fast their self driving tech will evolve. For Google it is whether AI will make search obsolete or more valuable.
- trevzercap 2y agoYeah its an art not a science for sure. Those questions and how you think the answers will play out should inform the inputs you use for your model. DCF modeling is not a silver bullet to predict a stock price thats for sure.
- jb1991 2y agoCounterpoint: Jim Simons
- rahimnathwani 2y agoHFT isn't primarily about fundamental valuation.
- doctorpangloss 2y agoI'm not sure why anyone would invoke Renaissance as an example of anything, giving how little people know about what they concretely do. Seems ironically unscientific of people who admire Jim Simons.
- czbond 2y agoNeither is an equity's price much of the calendar year.
- avarun 2y ago…yes. Which is why OP made the argument that this tool, which helps with fundamental performance, isn’t very useful for calculating an equity’s price target.
- plessas 2y agoI subbed. Messing around with model parameters definitely has entertainment value.
- trevzercap 2y agoThank you! I appreciate the support.
- jstanley 2y agoVery nice, coincidentally I have been thinking about making a similar tool lately, but I'd make it quite a bit more conservative. I'd want to be able to define a model like "I think the fair value of a company is its net current assets plus its last 5 years of earnings", and have the tool email me whenever I can buy shares in any company substantially below that price, or sell them substantially above. It wouldn't be very hard to do, it just needs the data. Where are you getting your data from?
- trevzercap 2y agoHi the data is from https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs
- jstanley 2y agoThanks
- mkl 2y ago> Attribution is required for all users. It is as simple as putting “Data provided by Financial Modeling Prep” somewhere on your site or app and linking that text to https://financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs/ https://financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs/. I don't see attribution on useequityval.com?
- sumedh 2y agoHow much do you have to pay for data?
- vg_head 2y agoThis is exactly the kind of tool I would want as well. I was surprised nothing like this exists already.
- trevzercap 2y agoSounds like maybe i should build a notification system so if a stock drops a certain percentage below your models estimated value you get alerted?
- devoutsalsa 2y agoWhat are you using for a data source? Just web scraping?
- shegerking2020 2y agothe sign up page is clunky. My inputs aren't visible https://pasteboard.co/PL6myO1PGkIG.png https://pasteboard.co/PL6myO1PGkIG.png
- trevzercap 2y agoHi, this is odd. What browser are you using?
- shegerking2020 2y agoI am using regular chrome
- Kickedsoda 2y agoLooks like it could the autocomplete of the browser they are using. Try something like this in your global.css https://pasteboard.co/VAf6hbqgxOoU.png https://pasteboard.co/VAf6hbqgxOoU.png
- atlgator 2y agoYour model projects the price of Nvidia will rise to $30,173. How does it arrive at that?
- trevzercap 2y agoHi this is from a comment below on this "Hey, the model starts with the previous years growth numbers projected out 5 years. You are meant to give your assumptions to get to a valuation. NVDA revenue grew 125% last year so projecting that out for 5 straight years results in a very high value but is most likely inaccurate!" I should probably take nvda off the home page lol
- 3abiton 2y agoOnly Nvidia? These predictions are maybe misleading? And might present bad information to unaware users?
- 0cf8612b2e1e 2y agoI think maybe come up with one or two more simple, but dumb models. Show all three at once to demonstrate the wildly different results that can come out given different assumptions.
- throwaway2037 2y agoCool. It will have a market cap twice that of the US nominal GDP!
- cmgriffing 2y agoI would love to see some tooltips or something to explain the relevance of some of the stock metrics and what a good vs bad number would look like. Something as simple as "Higher number = better" would be useful.
- trevzercap 2y agoThank you, this is a good suggestion.
- tndibona 2y agoI like the site. You reacted the HN front page. Congrats mate, I hope you don't burn a hole in your wallet to support this surge in traffic.
- trevzercap 2y agoHaha, just upgraded my email provider so i wouldn't run out 30 seconds ago. Thank you!
- m3kw9 2y agoIf there is any alpha with these data, it would have been used up
- uh2010 2y agohttps://www.useequityval.com/model?ticker=CRSP https://www.useequityval.com/model?ticker=CRSP Current Price: $56.22 Projected Price: $20,806,772,549,824,028.00 Difference: 37,009,556,296,378,460% Glad I'm long.
- Beijinger 2y ago37,009,556,296,378,460% That is a decent return. I bought a call option for RILY. Went to zero. Well...
- sitzkrieg 2y agoalways do credit option positions :-)
- trevzercap 2y agoHaha the initial model is not a good representation of value as it projects the lasts years metrics out 5 years. 80K% growth for 5 years would do that. Thanks for pointing it out. I need to incorporate some boundaries for the initial values lol.
- icedchai 2y agoI put in quite a few stocks and the results were often strange. Negative values, under a dollar, etc. These were all stable companies, not penny stocks.
- airstrike 2y agoThe hard thing about modeling is not the math to get to present value of the stock. It's figuring out which assumptions make sense. Assuming that a revenue growth rate of 84,762.39% is (a) a valid number and (b) expected to remain the same over the next X years does not quote-unquote "make sense"
- giantg2 2y agoYeah, there should be multiple massive disclaimers on this site. I'd be worried about regulatory issues as well. Edit: why disagree?
- tessbi 2y agoThis is excellent! Good work!
- trevzercap 2y agoThank you!
- rishab_kokate 2y agoHi, loved the idea behind your product. Just a quick question about your tech stack? What stack did you use? Im trying to learn more about web development and was in the process of learning how to make my idea. Im leaning towards the MERN stack rn but not exactly sure if its a good idea, so im just asking you also what were the criterias/questions you asked yourself for choosing your tech stack?
- throwme_123 2y ago[flagged]
- trevzercap 2y agoLmao buddy. You think I have gotten 50+ friends to comment on this? You must be special. Some people are nice and enjoy their life, you clearly don’t. Also please point out the SEC violations. I am not telling anyone to buy or sell a stock. Please use some brain cells before your next comment.
- wizzwizz4 2y agoResponding with personal attacks is not a good look, especially when you're using slurs (as 'special' is, when used in this context). It doesn't matter how bad or inapplicable the criticism is. If you do this, they've brought you down to their level, and regardless of who wins the resulting argument, you've lost.
- everfree 2y agoIn what way is this an SEC violation?
- Tdil 2y ago[flagged]
- plaidfuji 2y agoI’m consistently surprised at the lack of basic financial literacy in the HN crowd. The title says this is a tool to create financial models, not that it is a well-tuned financial model. Yeah, you have to make better assumptions than straight-line extrapolation from last year’s trend to arrive at reasonable valuations. The point is that this shows you what assumptions you have to make to arrive at a rationally-calculated stock value, and pre-populates all of the other necessary data and formulas in a slick UI, which is pretty cool. The models that make the big bucks are the ones that ingest a ton of other external data to predict the numbers that go in the data entry cells here. And yeah, those don’t get posted online for free.
- trevzercap 2y agoThank you! You captured it perfectly. Shoot me and email at support@useequityval.com and I will set you up with a pro for free!
- laborcontract 2y agoAny way do regional and or segment breakouts? The way I see your tool, it's a great tool for the back of the napkin-ers but as it is right now, it doesn't obviate modeling because you're still going to have to do the breakouts in excel. Also, I think it'd be great to set your defaults assumptions for a stock to breakeven pricing, and allow users to adjust from there. I see a tool like this being useful, but I think positioning it as a deep valuation tool is much less useful in the mindsphere of investors as an elite pen and napkin, which I think people would use.
- fakedang 2y agoYou'd be surprised to learn then that most PE deals run on the back of literal pen and napkin models. In our process at my former firm, one of the largest megafunds out there, we would scout and model new opportunities using elaborate models, report them to the MDs who would then literally whip out a notepad or a napkin mid-presentation to decide whether the investment had potential. If it was in the grey zone, it was on us to demonstrate that it had merit, using more complicated modelling and analysis.
- hi-v-rocknroll 2y agoIt's predicting a contraction in value of 20% to 70% of every stock I throw at it. 40k DIJA is a more-than-inflationary bubble popping within a few years? Edit: Chipotle must be headed for E. Coli again: Projected Price: $-2,890.64 https://www.useequityval.com/model?ticker=CMG https://www.useequityval.com/model?ticker=CMG
- downrightmike 2y agoI mean all USA debt delinquencies are currently between the same levels as Q1 and Q2 of 2008... foreclosures aren't near as high, but they are trending up quickly.
- abdabab 2y ago> I mean all USA debt delinquencies are currently between the same levels as Q1 and Q2 of 2008... Where did you find this? None of the data in https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/32440 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/32440 confirms this other than the small bank credit card delinquencies.
- gymbeaux 2y agoI mean the stock market is objectively overvalued and the economics are leaning toward a recession
- timmit 2y agoDo you mind sharing what API do you use to fetch the stock price?
- vivzkestrel 2y agomind adding a blog post on how this was built? what technologies were used, what does the stack look like etc?
- pockmockchock 2y agoseems like apple is a sell
- slowhand09 2y agoI'm not signing up or creating a "free" account without at least seeing a sample of it. JMHO.
- downrightmike 2y agosecond
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- mdaniel 2y ago[flagged]
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- pvg 2y agoA few resubmissions of something that doesn't get traction are perfectly fine, meta comments harping about them mostly aren't.
- dlim24 2y agoCongrats on the launch! It looks well-made.. Also, third Show HN submission so persistence and faith paid off..
- wetpaws 2y ago[dead]
- yatz 2y agoIs it still in Beta? Seem to have quite a few bugs, not letting me pick a stock from the list unless I refresh the page. Besides, it would be better to have some info about how was the projected price calculated.
- achillesheels 2y agoI wish it had the ability to statistically correlate operating expenses or capital expenditures, for instance, with share-prices, especially for historical "backtesting", to determine if there is a positive or negative correlation.
- 8mobile 2y agohi, nice idea. I like both the graphics and the ability to create financial models for shares. Is there any limit?
- mirekrusin 2y agoBe careful, financial advise is a bit like medical advice - legal issues it can create may not be pleasant.