7 ms·

There's not enough power for America's high-tech ambitions

45 points by fortran77 2y ago

neonate 2y ago
https://archive.ph/jPFO2 https://archive.ph/jPFO2
techcode 2y ago
How is this different than many other "western democracies"? For one specific example - The Netherlands with its various tax breaks/benefits - such as buying hybrid or fully electric car, installing solar panels, turning off natural gas (widely used for heating houses/apartments and domestic water) and switch to air based heat pumps and induction cooktop ... All combined brought the country to a point where it's struggling with electrical grid capacity and availability. While existing homes tend to have reliable supply of electricity. New homes and companies wait for electrical connection or they still go through with using natural gas despite hybrid heat pumps already being placed, during peak sun electrical grid operators turn off receiving electricity from private solar panels ...etc
- Tknl 2y ago
  The Netherlands is struggling with a lack of grid capacity due to political decisions to ignore the power network management companies that pleaded for at least a decade for expansion.
  - BurningFrog 2y ago
    The same happened in both my home countries: US and Sweden.
  - davedx 2y ago
    It is changing now though. TenneT now has some huge projects coordinated with the Ministry for Economic Affairs. All the doom and gloom is unhelpful, the Netherlands has come a long way in the last 10 years and we should celebrate the victories. People only want to see the bad news about a supermarket that couldn’t get a grid connection and declare that it’s all a mess. There are definitely many places on the grid with big backlogs but the rate of upgrades to accommodate them has accelerated immensely.
- toast0 2y ago
  Hybrid cars is a good bet... They almost always use less fuel than the same model ICE, have a better emissions profile, and if they're plugin offer a lot of flexibility. Adding solar panels when peak production is already too much can still make some sense, depending on circumstance. If it reduces long distance transmission by balancing use closer to generation, that's valuable. If it increases the length of time in a day where solar is dominant, that's valuable. If there's enough capacity that it makes sense to build export facilities, that's valuable, because it also brings import facilities and greater stability. If there's enough excess capacity to inspire storage facilities, that's good too. Otoh, it could just be that the solar subsidies need to be turned off as they've done their job.
vertnerd 2y ago
At the same time, the New York Times (also paywalled) is writing about how some states (California) are extending solar and existing power sources using batteries: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/07/climate/battery-electricity-solar-california-texas.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/07/climate/batte... There is an interesting graph at the top of the Times article showing the growth of battery use recently.
- acidburnNSA 2y ago
  This is what people said about nuclear power as it stopped being an exponential rise in the mid-1970s. As a power source becomes built it more places, its externalities generally get more regulated. Happened with coal (acid rain, air pollution) and nuclear (Browns ferry fire, TMI, Salem atws), happening now with wind and solar (land use, intermittency)
silverquiet 2y ago
The Bloomberg Oddlots podcast had an episode a few weeks ago about a boom in starts for natural gas power plants; if I remember correctly, they were saying that the infrastructure people who normally run the grid are used to thinking in decades but are now thinking in years. So it seems we will be working hard to increase carbon emissions at a time when we should be cutting them drastically. It does not bode well.
croes 2y ago
Isn't the US power grid also a problem?
- detourdog 2y ago
  The grid in Western Massachusetts is over burdened. Local colleges are building their own peaker co-gen plants to meet needs. From my POV the US grid needs a rethink that prioritizes local production with large transmission lines used only for redundancy access. We should probably break down our energy usage between heating and everything else. The heating load is my biggest obstacle to net-zero. I'm working on solar thermal designs to get to zero. Solar thermal avoids the need to interconnect with the grid which currently is maxed out.
  - techcode 2y ago
    It's basically same everywhere in the world - except some places don't mind nuclear, coal, or natural gas. Few places have enough elevation and water for hydro (and don't mind submerging loads of land to make it happen). For almost all countries - experts (engineers and scientists) have been warning grid and production will not be enough, and politicians kept focusing on shorter term wins of votes.
    - Sabinus 2y ago
      I think (collectively) the voters in many places didn't want green energy enough to actually pay for the large investments required.
      - detourdog 2y ago
        What I find interesting is that in the US the cost of developing small solar PV systems is within reach of many homeowners.
        CuriouslyC 2y ago
        The economics are still a little shaky for home solar installations, particularly when you factor in batteries. Larger "water batteries" instead of hot water heaters would make a dent but we need more passive storage.
zbrozek 2y ago
China electricity production from 2000-2020 overlaid on US electricity production from 1950-2023. Seems like it is definitely possible to achieve a steeper slope. https://zlnp.net/serve/us_vs_china-electricity_production.png https://zlnp.net/serve/us_vs_china-electricity_production.pn...
- roenxi 2y ago
  Yes. But that sort of growth wasn't politically feasible in the US. The most economic options at the time were coal and nuclear, both of which were strictly off the table.
  - silverquiet 2y ago
    I always think of it like this - what job would you rather have your kid get into, working in construction, or as a lawyer arguing for or against that construction? One job is both a lot cushier and happens to pay multiples better.
    - User23 2y ago
      Ah yes, the “diversified services oriented economy” scores another win.
    - foobarbecue 2y ago
      Fascinating. I often look at our society and wonder why we set it up so that most people are wasting their lives doing unnecessary "bullshit jobs" (sensu Graeber) instead of setting it up so that people can spend their time on meaningful non-work. Your comment gives me a new hypothesis: because people think like that.
      - FredPret 2y ago
        Supply and demand should correct the situation if we get over-lawyered. Looking at university enrollment rates, it seems that’s exactly what’s happening.
emchammer 2y ago
There won't be if those ambitions are just increasingly complex and abstract financial instruments.
xyst 2y ago
Looks like all those resources burned up for an advanced chat bot are going up in smoke. We had a good run. Met some good people along the way. Unfortunately it will end in the same way as “don’t look up”. Enjoy your time on this planet. Stop grinding for a mega corporation.
- bippihippi1 2y ago
  Have faith, young xyst. The world is not as hopeless as some would have you believe. God is good, and he doesn't leave the faithful behind.
  - quickslowdown 2y ago
    Not sure where you saw an opening to insert religion into the discussion, but there are those out there who aren't happy to sit back in ignorant bliss and pretend some spiritual entity will just swoop in to clean up the mess we've made. I for one am happy there are more people interested in finding solutions to problems than there are lazy thinkers who will resign themselves to believing problems just fix themselves without input.
    - bippihippi1 2y ago
      God gives many wisdom to see a solution. Ask him and see
      - indigo0086 2y ago
        I'd you told me this a couple years ago I'd give the same reaponse as the reply above
- paulddraper 2y ago
  It will end with a giant meteor striking the earth? Because of chat bots? I'm not connecting the dots. (Unless this is a general "in the long term survival rate for everyone drops to 0.")
api 2y ago
There are tons of solar and wind projects everywhere held up by permitting. We can build. We just can’t get out of our own way. Same story for everything else.
CatWChainsaw 2y ago
Why did this get flagged, exactly? WSJ is "reputable". There's no comment with an archive link to bypass the paywall (yet) but paywalled articles don't automatically get flagged AFAIK. The comments here don't give any hints thus far. I can only conclude it got flagged because it's so blatantly crushing the techno-optimist dreams of the median person here? Edit: Touched a few nerves it seems. Go touch grass kiddos.
- fortran77 2y ago
  There are people who knee-jerk flag everything from WSJ. Usually because, in their words, "it's a Murdoch rag". They'd rather get their news from random blogs, splogs, and tweets I guess.
  - arp242 2y ago
    No, I flagged it because it's paywalled and there is no workaround as near as I could find. So all most can do is discuss the title, which is not useful. Someone told you this less than 3 weeks ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40101710 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40101710
    - davidf18 2y ago
      [dead]
tim333 2y ago
Paywall work around that worked for me - this https://www.realclearpolitics.com/2024/05/12/therersquos_not_enough_power_for_americarsquos_high-tech_ambitions_623494.html https://www.realclearpolitics.com/2024/05/12/therersquos_not... then click 'Full Article'
1vuio0pswjnm7 2y ago
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/there-s-not-enough-power-for-america-s-high-tech-ambitions/ar-BB1mfhwf https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/there-s-not-enough-p... or tnftp -4o'|busybox grep -o "\"body\":\".*\"readTimeMin\""' https://assets.msn.com/content/view/v2/Detail/en-in/ar-BB1mfhwf \ |(echo "<meta charset=utf-8>";sed 's/\"body\":\"//;s/\\//g;s/\",\"readTimeMin\"//') > 1.htm firefox ./1.htm or links https://assets.msn.com/content/view/v2/Detail/en-in/ar-BB1mfhwf ;# press 'd' to display then press '\' key to read formatted text

45 points by fortran77 2y ago

https://archive.ph/jPFO2 https://archive.ph/jPFO2

How is this different than many other "western democracies"? For one specific example - The Netherlands with its various tax breaks/benefits - such as buying hybrid or fully electric car, installing solar panels, turning off natural gas (widely used for heating houses/apartments and domestic water) and switch to air based heat pumps and induction cooktop ... All combined brought the country to a point where it's struggling with electrical grid capacity and availability. While existing homes tend to have reliable supply of electricity. New homes and companies wait for electrical connection or they still go through with using natural gas despite hybrid heat pumps already being placed, during peak sun electrical grid operators turn off receiving electricity from private solar panels ...etc

Tknl 2y ago
The Netherlands is struggling with a lack of grid capacity due to political decisions to ignore the power network management companies that pleaded for at least a decade for expansion.
- BurningFrog 2y ago
  The same happened in both my home countries: US and Sweden.
- davedx 2y ago
  It is changing now though. TenneT now has some huge projects coordinated with the Ministry for Economic Affairs. All the doom and gloom is unhelpful, the Netherlands has come a long way in the last 10 years and we should celebrate the victories. People only want to see the bad news about a supermarket that couldn’t get a grid connection and declare that it’s all a mess. There are definitely many places on the grid with big backlogs but the rate of upgrades to accommodate them has accelerated immensely.
toast0 2y ago
Hybrid cars is a good bet... They almost always use less fuel than the same model ICE, have a better emissions profile, and if they're plugin offer a lot of flexibility. Adding solar panels when peak production is already too much can still make some sense, depending on circumstance. If it reduces long distance transmission by balancing use closer to generation, that's valuable. If it increases the length of time in a day where solar is dominant, that's valuable. If there's enough capacity that it makes sense to build export facilities, that's valuable, because it also brings import facilities and greater stability. If there's enough excess capacity to inspire storage facilities, that's good too. Otoh, it could just be that the solar subsidies need to be turned off as they've done their job.

vertnerd 2y ago

At the same time, the New York Times (also paywalled) is writing about how some states (California) are extending solar and existing power sources using batteries: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/07/climate/battery-electricity-solar-california-texas.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/07/climate/batte... There is an interesting graph at the top of the Times article showing the growth of battery use recently.

acidburnNSA 2y ago
This is what people said about nuclear power as it stopped being an exponential rise in the mid-1970s. As a power source becomes built it more places, its externalities generally get more regulated. Happened with coal (acid rain, air pollution) and nuclear (Browns ferry fire, TMI, Salem atws), happening now with wind and solar (land use, intermittency)

silverquiet 2y ago

The Bloomberg Oddlots podcast had an episode a few weeks ago about a boom in starts for natural gas power plants; if I remember correctly, they were saying that the infrastructure people who normally run the grid are used to thinking in decades but are now thinking in years. So it seems we will be working hard to increase carbon emissions at a time when we should be cutting them drastically. It does not bode well.

croes 2y ago

Isn't the US power grid also a problem?

detourdog 2y ago
The grid in Western Massachusetts is over burdened. Local colleges are building their own peaker co-gen plants to meet needs. From my POV the US grid needs a rethink that prioritizes local production with large transmission lines used only for redundancy access. We should probably break down our energy usage between heating and everything else. The heating load is my biggest obstacle to net-zero. I'm working on solar thermal designs to get to zero. Solar thermal avoids the need to interconnect with the grid which currently is maxed out.
- techcode 2y ago
  It's basically same everywhere in the world - except some places don't mind nuclear, coal, or natural gas. Few places have enough elevation and water for hydro (and don't mind submerging loads of land to make it happen). For almost all countries - experts (engineers and scientists) have been warning grid and production will not be enough, and politicians kept focusing on shorter term wins of votes.
  - Sabinus 2y ago
    I think (collectively) the voters in many places didn't want green energy enough to actually pay for the large investments required.
    - detourdog 2y ago
      What I find interesting is that in the US the cost of developing small solar PV systems is within reach of many homeowners.
      - CuriouslyC 2y ago
        The economics are still a little shaky for home solar installations, particularly when you factor in batteries. Larger "water batteries" instead of hot water heaters would make a dent but we need more passive storage.

zbrozek 2y ago

China electricity production from 2000-2020 overlaid on US electricity production from 1950-2023. Seems like it is definitely possible to achieve a steeper slope. https://zlnp.net/serve/us_vs_china-electricity_production.png https://zlnp.net/serve/us_vs_china-electricity_production.pn...

roenxi 2y ago
Yes. But that sort of growth wasn't politically feasible in the US. The most economic options at the time were coal and nuclear, both of which were strictly off the table.
- silverquiet 2y ago
  I always think of it like this - what job would you rather have your kid get into, working in construction, or as a lawyer arguing for or against that construction? One job is both a lot cushier and happens to pay multiples better.
  - User23 2y ago
    Ah yes, the “diversified services oriented economy” scores another win.
  - foobarbecue 2y ago
    Fascinating. I often look at our society and wonder why we set it up so that most people are wasting their lives doing unnecessary "bullshit jobs" (sensu Graeber) instead of setting it up so that people can spend their time on meaningful non-work. Your comment gives me a new hypothesis: because people think like that.
    - FredPret 2y ago
      Supply and demand should correct the situation if we get over-lawyered. Looking at university enrollment rates, it seems that’s exactly what’s happening.

emchammer 2y ago

There won't be if those ambitions are just increasingly complex and abstract financial instruments.

xyst 2y ago

Looks like all those resources burned up for an advanced chat bot are going up in smoke. We had a good run. Met some good people along the way. Unfortunately it will end in the same way as “don’t look up”. Enjoy your time on this planet. Stop grinding for a mega corporation.

bippihippi1 2y ago
Have faith, young xyst. The world is not as hopeless as some would have you believe. God is good, and he doesn't leave the faithful behind.
- quickslowdown 2y ago
  Not sure where you saw an opening to insert religion into the discussion, but there are those out there who aren't happy to sit back in ignorant bliss and pretend some spiritual entity will just swoop in to clean up the mess we've made. I for one am happy there are more people interested in finding solutions to problems than there are lazy thinkers who will resign themselves to believing problems just fix themselves without input.
  - bippihippi1 2y ago
    God gives many wisdom to see a solution. Ask him and see
    - indigo0086 2y ago
      I'd you told me this a couple years ago I'd give the same reaponse as the reply above
paulddraper 2y ago
It will end with a giant meteor striking the earth? Because of chat bots? I'm not connecting the dots. (Unless this is a general "in the long term survival rate for everyone drops to 0.")

api 2y ago

There are tons of solar and wind projects everywhere held up by permitting. We can build. We just can’t get out of our own way. Same story for everything else.

CatWChainsaw 2y ago

Why did this get flagged, exactly? WSJ is "reputable". There's no comment with an archive link to bypass the paywall (yet) but paywalled articles don't automatically get flagged AFAIK. The comments here don't give any hints thus far. I can only conclude it got flagged because it's so blatantly crushing the techno-optimist dreams of the median person here? Edit: Touched a few nerves it seems. Go touch grass kiddos.

fortran77 2y ago
There are people who knee-jerk flag everything from WSJ. Usually because, in their words, "it's a Murdoch rag". They'd rather get their news from random blogs, splogs, and tweets I guess.
- arp242 2y ago
  No, I flagged it because it's paywalled and there is no workaround as near as I could find. So all most can do is discuss the title, which is not useful. Someone told you this less than 3 weeks ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40101710 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40101710
  - davidf18 2y ago
    [dead]

tim333 2y ago

Paywall work around that worked for me - this https://www.realclearpolitics.com/2024/05/12/therersquos_not_enough_power_for_americarsquos_high-tech_ambitions_623494.html https://www.realclearpolitics.com/2024/05/12/therersquos_not... then click 'Full Article'

1vuio0pswjnm7 2y ago

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/there-s-not-enough-power-for-america-s-high-tech-ambitions/ar-BB1mfhwf https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/there-s-not-enough-p... or tnftp -4o'|busybox grep -o "\"body\":\".*\"readTimeMin\""' https://assets.msn.com/content/view/v2/Detail/en-in/ar-BB1mfhwf \ |(echo "<meta charset=utf-8>";sed 's/\"body\":\"//;s/\\//g;s/\",\"readTimeMin\"//') > 1.htm firefox ./1.htm or links https://assets.msn.com/content/view/v2/Detail/en-in/ar-BB1mfhwf ;# press 'd' to display then press '\' key to read formatted text