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The oceans have broken temperature records every day over the past year
- felsokning 2y ago"Learn to swim, see you down in Arizona Bay" - Bill Hicks/Tool
- Synaesthesia 2y agoThe future is not looking too bright on the climate change front. Anecdotally temperatures have consistently been 5-8 deg C warmer than average this Autumn in Pretoria. On the global war front things are looking pretty ominous too. John Mearsheimer remarked recently that he was glad he was born and lived in the post WW2 era.
- bamboozled 2y agoJohn Mearsheimer remarked recently that he was glad he was born and lived in the post WW2 era. What's your point?
- nojvek 2y agoIt was the most prosperous time to be alive. Boomers, their kids and grand kids were the wealthiest generation compared to their parents. Their great grand children though, sucks to be them.
- mg 2y agoWe see the prisoners dilemma in action.
- bun_terminator 2y agoThat's a somewhat misleading way to say they're higher than the year before. This makes it sound like every day has not only been higher than the year before, but was also a new all-time high. That is not the case.
- lotsofpulp 2y agoIs that not what the daily average sea surface temperature graph is showing? The 2024 line is above all the others, as is the 2023 line from May 8 onwards. Edit: nvm, I see you are interpreting it as record breaking compared to all previous days, not just the same date in the previous calendar year.
- altacc 2y agoFrom the graph of the data, every day for the past 365 days has indeed been an all time high, higher than any previously recorded temperature recorded by the same method since records began in 1979. So does not appear to be misleading.
- bun_terminator 2y agoI don't think that's correct? The current values for example are lower than those from february
- altacc 2y agoI see what you're saying. You're reading it as "every day is hotter than the previous day". The way I said it is open to misinterpretation but the article is better. It says "record-breaking year of heat" and "broken temperature records every single day over the past year," the record being the highest sea temperature for that day. Every day is an all time high for that day. The oceans are seasonally affected, so not constant temperature even averaged across the globe.
- bergen 2y agoThis is ignoring seasonality, of course Winter temperature can not be as high as summer temperatures but still break historic records (just as an example) This is somehow a given when talking about seasonal data.
- bun_terminator 2y agoexactly - that's why actual record breaks every single day would be such a huge story! But this is pretty benign - it's almost expected that a warmer year would be warmer at every point in time.
- fnordian_slip 2y agoLooking at that graph and its implications, I kind of understand climate change deniers more than I did before[0]. It sure is scary, and creating an alternative reality where this is natural and something without dire consequences might help them with their mental health, as it is less taxing than facing the truth. We have already killed an incredible number of species, and doomed many more due to the system being slow to respond, even if we enacted radical measures now. However, it seems like most governments are happy to pass the buck to the next generation, as this is what the majority of voters want. [0] though there seems to be a shift from outright denial to denial of human causes nowadays
- Tran84jfj 2y ago[flagged]
- altacc 2y agoHuman reasoning is an amazingly flexible thing. We've gone from "this problem doesn't exist" to "this is natural variance" to "even if it was real we shouldn't do anything about it because it would cost us and others aren't doing the same" to "well, it's too late now and we need to keep consuming to save ourselves from the consequences of our consumption". Anything to avoid inconveniencing ourselves or force significant & meaningful action to truly reign in the industries with the biggest effects on climate.
- WithinReason 2y agoWe're simply following the Four Stage Strategy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak
- taneq 2y agoLarge scale multiplayer Four Stage Strategy is basically Existential Chicken. You keep doing the most profitable thing, in the hope that your competitors care more about the continued existence of the commons than you do, and so become comparatively less competitive.
- TeMPOraL 2y agoThere is a silver lining: the market is, in its perverse way, priority-sorting what people focus on. At some point things will get so bad that addressing them will be more profitable than any other thing companies can do...
- hackerlight 2y agoThe market by itself can never solve this problem because the tragedy of the commons is not addressable by market mechanisms. It is impossible due to the game theory dynamics at play. You need top down force applied to align incentives with the public commons, it's the only way.
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- ChrisArchitect 2y agoRelated CNN/NOAA report from a few months ago: Global ocean heat has been at record levels every single day for the last year https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39756440 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39756440
- boredemployee 2y agoThis is happening right now, 350+ cities under water: https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/05/flooding-death-toll-brazil-rio-grande-do-sul-state-missing-people https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/05/floodi...
- paganel 2y agoMore people means more stuff that can potentially become flooded. Also, it’s not like floods are a recent phenomenon.
- boredemployee 2y agoFloods happening like that, 3 times in 12 months, in the same place, is a recent phenomenon.
- alangibson 2y ago> Also, it’s not like floods are a recent phenomenon. There is a type of mind that just deletes inconvenient parts of a piece of information. "500 year floods are happening every 10 years" becomes "500 year floods happen". "every summer is the hottest on record" becomes "every summer is hot".
- paganel 2y ago> "500 year floods are happening every 10 years" Does this come from the same type of people that have kept part of us in a lockdown two years after the start of the pandemic? If yes, you can understand how come not that many us us can take those sentences seriously anymore. They get to sow what they reaped.
- alangibson 2y agoComplete non sequitur. Historical flood frequency and the emergence of a novel deadly virus have literally nothing to do with each other. So no, I don't understand that. The only way I could possibly understand that it's through the eyes of a 6 year old who just didn't like to be told what to do. EDIT: I guess what you mean is there's a "type of person" that looks for reasons to tell you what to do. There aren't. There are however people who dedicate their lives to making sure people they will never know don't die of things like floods and viruses. If those people are villains to you then that says a whole lot about you.
- pcdoodle 2y agoIs there a chart that goes back further than 1979?
- monkburger 2y agoYes. I don't like using Wikipedia for a source, but here's some paleoclimate data going back to the early Phanerozoic. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5f/All_palaeotemps.svg/2880px-All_palaeotemps.svg.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5f/Al... Also, I /highly/ recommend reading over Hansen et al's 2013 paper It's quite lengthy but it should answer a lot of questions you may have: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0081648 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal...
- pcdoodle 2y agoThese charts look like guesses. I'm talking about temperature readings done by a known instrument and organization over the years.
- monkburger 2y agoThey aren't guesses. Those charts are reflecting oxygen isotope ratios (which are measured directly), among countless others (which are covered in Hasen et al) Oxygen isotope ratios are more or less ^16O and ^18O. These isotopes are distributed differently based on temperature and precipitation patterns, which can be recorded in ice cores, ocean sediments, lake sediments, and even in the shells of marine organisms. ^16O is more often seen in 'warmer' events, vs ^18O
- pcdoodle 2y agowe're talking about a 1C variance, I'd like to know what calibrated instrument and organization has the data for review going back a bit further than 1979.
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- mentalpiracy 2y agoWe really gotta put sulfur back into maritime fuel, immediately. We thought we were doing the right thing to try to reduce a major source of pollution… but it turns out that those sulfur fuel emissions were also unintentionally geoengineering the atmosphere by seeding clouds across the open ocean. It’s not the solutikn, but it would help.
- eesmith 2y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_oil#Health_impacts https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_oil#Health_impacts > Because of the low quality of bunker fuel, when burnt it is especially harmful to the health of humans, causing serious illnesses and deaths. Prior to the IMO's 2020 sulfur cap, shipping industry air pollution was estimated to cause around 400,000 premature deaths each year, from lung cancer and cardiovascular disease, as well as 14 million childhood asthma cases each year.[4] > Even after the introduction of cleaner fuel rules in 2020, shipping air pollution is still estimated to account for around 250,000 deaths each year, and around 6.4 million childhood asthma cases each year. Nor would sulfur help with ocean acidification. "Reducing carbon dioxide emissions (i.e., climate change mitigation measures) is the only solution that addresses the root cause of ocean acidification. Mitigation measures which achieve carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere would help to reverse ocean acidification." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification
- mentalpiracy 2y agoYes, that’s exactly why we banned bunker fuel - but we didn’t realize that it was helping keep ocean surface temperatures from skyrocketing. The worldwide harm and injury cause by bunker fuel pollution is utterly trivial compared to the catastrophic heating of the oceans. Damage caused by exposure to pollution is measured in years and decades; we are measuring the searing of the oceans in mere weeks and months.
- eesmith 2y agoIf it were so easy then stratospheric aerosol injection would get the sulfur up high enough to be more effective, without the harm of bunker fuel pollution. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_dimming https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_dimming > Because the historical levels of global dimming were associated with high mortality from air pollution and issues such as such as acid rain,[123] the concept of relying on cooling directly from pollution has been described as a "Faustian bargain" and is not seriously considered by modern research.[111] Instead, the seminal 2006 paper by Paul Crutzen suggested that the way to avoid increased warming as the sulfate pollution decreased was to revisit the 1974 proposal by the Soviet researcher Mikhail Budyko.[124][125] The proposal involved releasing sulfates from the airplanes flying in the upper layers of the atmosphere, in what is now described as stratospheric aerosol injection, or SAI.[122] In comparison, most air pollution is in the lower atmospheric layer (the troposphere), and only resides there for weeks. Because aerosols deposited in the stratosphere would last for years, far less sulfur would have to be emitted to result in the same amount of cooling.
- ChrisArchitect 2y agoNYTimes report on the same Copernicus data from last month: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39997554 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39997554
- ChrisArchitect 2y agoRelated: 12 months of record ocean heat has scientists puzzled and concerned https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39719391 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39719391
- mihaic 2y agoI always seen the problem of climate change are being the wrong problem to name. We're destroying our environment through industrial by-products, deforestation, etc, and when the possibly biggest side-effect of all this planetary abuse starts being obvious, we only talk about that, and make it the only metric. Getting people to care about the environment is something possible, as other generations have done this better. It only if all your education of the general public and legislation starts from the premise that we need to keep the health of the entire world, in all aspects. Single metric carbon-tax is easily gamed by corporations and makes the general public apathetic. Maybe that's the goal for some lobbyists, but that's the battle from my point of view.
- McDyver 2y agoPeople protect what they love. And unfortunately we as a society are taught to love money, not the environment. We should be able to do better
- ndsipa_pomu 2y agoIt's even worse than simply not protecting - Capitalism provides an incentive for businesses to plunder natural resources as fast as possible.
- matips 2y agoPeople love things. It is easy to say "consume less", it even easer if you add "and work less". It ease to give up something you recognize as a luxury: we can skip exotic holidays, use public transport, eat less meat, make more durable electronic, buy less clothes, go to restaurants less often, live in smaller houses. I am observing that there is always some 'deal breaker' - even for anti-consumerism people. In Poland it is often real estates - houses and flats are one of the most important expense in households budgets. "Consume less" means that society should build less new houses and people should live longer with their parents or have smaller apartments for their families. For other countries or areas the deal-breaker is to resign from private transport because there is no public transport alterative in countrysides.
- addandsubtract 2y ago
- monkburger 2y agoAs the oceans warm, there's more humidity. More humidity, more latent heat of vaporization. This is the energy that powers thunderstorms and hurricanes. The planet was probably the warmest during the Cretaceous. The planet is warming up, even the USDA plant hardiness map was updated (I was in 6b now I'm 7a): https://www.npr.org/2023/11/17/1213600629/-it-feels-like-im-not-crazy-gardeners-arent-surprised-as-usda-updates-key-map https://www.npr.org/2023/11/17/1213600629/-it-feels-like-im-...
- blueflow 2y ago> The planet was probably the warmest during the Cretaceous. Related data: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:All_palaeotemps.svg https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:All_palaeotemps.svg
- bamboozled 2y agoSeems like common sense now.
- xbmcuser 2y agoIn south asia and south east asia the temps are reaching the point where like arab countries working hours will need to be changed and not be in the afternoon. Unlike the Arab countries South East Asian countries have a humid climate as heat is retained of longer so evening and night the temperature do not drop as much.
- mihemihe 2y agoUAE temperatures do not drop below 30c during few months on the summer.
- pmayrgundter 2y agoNASA/JPL predicted a major global warming anomaly arriving this past year due to the Tonga eruption of Jan 2022. They gave a forcing estimate of +0.15 Wm−2, equivalent to half a decade of global human CO2 forcing, arriving mainly at 18-24 months after Jan 2022 (ie the past year) and lasting for 5-10 years "the HT-HH eruption was unusual in that it injected extremely large amounts of H2O [into the stratosphere]. Preliminary climate model simulations suggest an effective radiative forcing at the tropopause of +0.15 Wm−2 due to the stratospheric H2O enhancement. For comparison, the radiative forcing increase due to the CO2 growth from 1996 to 2005 was about +0.26 Wm−2. "The excess H2O could arrive in northern and southern midlatitudes in ∼18 and ∼24 months, respectively, over a broad domain in the upper stratosphere... The timescale for complete dissipation of the plume may be 5–10 years https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL099381 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/202...
- hi5eyes 2y agosimilar title, similar comments this time next year, forever?
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- KevinMS 2y agoIf next year is way below predicted will this also be in the news, and isn't this exactly what you'd see if you were coming out of an ice age?
- nojvek 2y agoWhen I saw Avengers Endgame, seeing Thanos eradicate 50% of population for his perspective of “greater good” was chilling. With escalated tensions between super powers, I fear one crazy dictator may push a button to drop a nuke at a populated US city in the name of “most efficient way to reduce warming”. That escapes to a nuclear war. Nuclear war from physics would work as the smoke would block the sun having a cooling effect, and less people would mean less emissions. But people would need to live underground and it would be an absolute shit life worse than living in a warm world. Life is short, but I have this intrinsic fear that humans may perish before they figure out how to become a multi planet species.