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This is likely something that will happen globally, simply because of demographic trends. Large cities will also be impacted, with a delay, as this is where mo

This is likely something that will happen globally, simply because of demographic trends. Large cities will also be impacted, with a delay, as this is where most young and educated people choose to live, for obvious reasons. In my opinion the housing market is the real demographic dampener, more than anything else, and it means that the long term trend for both demography and housing should be a slow oscillation around equilibrium.

mynameisnoone 2y ago
Everywhere except the SF Bay Area, Santa Cruz, Malibu, Boca Raton, and Maui. I think it's simply a communication and logistics problem to match people from other areas to empty homes. If anything, Japan and such should explicitly incentivize and encourage migration to declining areas to ensure their own tax base.
ghaff 2y ago
Many young and educated people in a relatively small number of cities until they decide to start a family and then historically they moved out. One also wonders what affect more remote/hybrid work will have. My cohort in the late 80s basically didn’t live in the city unless that’s where their job was which it wasn’t in the case of the computer industry. There’s nothing inevitable about young professionals wanting to live in cities and certainly not staying there.
- kube-system 2y ago
  Remote work is also giving professional workers more leisure time, and many are putting more thought into where they live as not just a place where they sleep, but also where they work and socialize. Also, for the people who prefer living in cities, there may be shifts in which cities are desired. Many mid-sized cities in the US existed because of the physical proximity required for the jobs there. e.g. In 2001 a worker may have moved to Cincinnati or St Louis because they got a job there. In 2024 a remote worker might move to NYC or Austin because they want to live in those places.
  - ghaff 2y ago
    Or they might decide NYC is an incredible luxury if they don’t have a job in finance there. As I say, we’ll have to see how it plays out. Obviously fully remote has become a decidedly minority mode (especially to the degree people worry their next job won’t be fully remote) contrary to what some expected during the pandemic.
- marssaxman 2y ago
  > until they decide to start a family and then historically they moved out That's a mid-to-late-20th century North American pattern based on zoning restrictions, mortgage policies, highway development policies, and racial conflict. There is nothing inevitable about it, and Japan has had a completely different experience.
- autoexec 2y ago
  > There’s nothing inevitable about young professionals wanting to live in cities I think it's more likely than not that young professionals with money will want to live in places where they can easily access a large variety of quality products, services, and entertainment. Places where they can meet and spend time with other young professionals. Once they get families they'll tend to prioritize places with good schools, childcare, and support systems (their parents, doctors, etc) but I don't think being able to work from home is going to make people want to live too far from cities while they are young.
  - ghaff 2y ago
    And the fact is that those good schools, for example, are in the orbit of some of the more elite cities much of the time. SF’s geographical constraints I think sometimes mislead people into thinking towns near expensive cities are all equally expensive. Many cities that are themselves expensive have suburbs and exurbs, some of which are themselves very expensive, but others of which are much more moderate and often have decent school systems and may be within an hour for medical care or an evening’s entertainment.
- carlosjobim 2y ago
  Young people will never be able to afford a home by working, no matter how much they produce for the economy. It is commonplace now that young people at the workplace produce 5x as much as their older colleagues. But they are never rewarded for it. What they will get rewarded for though is getting (somebody) pregnant. Then the parents of both the father and mother will rush in to help them get real estate and to escape the dead end of working. In short, they can't afford to move out from the city until pregnancy opens the doors for them.
  - beaeglebeachh 2y ago
    Lol this is the myth isn't it. Reality is getting screamed at by a toddler while you single-handedly build a depression era shack in desert wasteland for 40k, while simultaneously working full time and somehow caring for your kids too. Spend your time tearing your hair out, essentially working 3 full-time jobs while paying for daycare, rent, and construction materials so despite all this work your financials go into a black hole. My parents did send me a $100 Lowes gift card, so there is that. At least now I can do ghetto job of pretty much any building trade. It's mostly that having a kid lites the fire under your ass, not so much others are helping because they usually don't.
    - carlosjobim 2y ago
      My example is in the cases that young workers get any help at all. Some families do it old school and actually help their children without requiring pregnancy, but it's much rarer. And as you said, many families won't help at all.
  - WheatMillington 2y ago
    >It is commonplace now that young people at the workplace produce 5x as much as their older colleagues. Is this commonplace? This doesn't match my experience, not in tech but in finance departments.
    - carlosjobim 2y ago
      In low margin or high intensity industries, you're not going to have anybody who doesn't pull their own weight, whether young or old. But for normal jobs, it's more or less the norm that a huge number of your long-time workers are doing hardly anything at all.
- lmm 2y ago
  > There’s nothing inevitable about young professionals wanting to live in cities and certainly not staying there. Successful people wanting to live in cities at least until they retire has been the pattern for centuries. The postwar US weirdness of zoning and "white flight" is the aberration, this is a return to the norm.
lugu 2y ago
> In my opinion the housing market is the real demographic dampener As simple as it is, I never though of it this way. It makes more sense to me than the commonly accepted explanation that kids are a liability in modern life. Thanks!
- OccamsMirror 2y ago
  It also explains why even in fairer countries with more financial support for new parents, such as Norway, are also not having kids anymore.

mynameisnoone 2y ago

Everywhere except the SF Bay Area, Santa Cruz, Malibu, Boca Raton, and Maui. I think it's simply a communication and logistics problem to match people from other areas to empty homes. If anything, Japan and such should explicitly incentivize and encourage migration to declining areas to ensure their own tax base.

ghaff 2y ago

Many young and educated people in a relatively small number of cities until they decide to start a family and then historically they moved out. One also wonders what affect more remote/hybrid work will have. My cohort in the late 80s basically didn’t live in the city unless that’s where their job was which it wasn’t in the case of the computer industry. There’s nothing inevitable about young professionals wanting to live in cities and certainly not staying there.

kube-system 2y ago
Remote work is also giving professional workers more leisure time, and many are putting more thought into where they live as not just a place where they sleep, but also where they work and socialize. Also, for the people who prefer living in cities, there may be shifts in which cities are desired. Many mid-sized cities in the US existed because of the physical proximity required for the jobs there. e.g. In 2001 a worker may have moved to Cincinnati or St Louis because they got a job there. In 2024 a remote worker might move to NYC or Austin because they want to live in those places.
- ghaff 2y ago
  Or they might decide NYC is an incredible luxury if they don’t have a job in finance there. As I say, we’ll have to see how it plays out. Obviously fully remote has become a decidedly minority mode (especially to the degree people worry their next job won’t be fully remote) contrary to what some expected during the pandemic.
marssaxman 2y ago
> until they decide to start a family and then historically they moved out That's a mid-to-late-20th century North American pattern based on zoning restrictions, mortgage policies, highway development policies, and racial conflict. There is nothing inevitable about it, and Japan has had a completely different experience.
autoexec 2y ago
> There’s nothing inevitable about young professionals wanting to live in cities I think it's more likely than not that young professionals with money will want to live in places where they can easily access a large variety of quality products, services, and entertainment. Places where they can meet and spend time with other young professionals. Once they get families they'll tend to prioritize places with good schools, childcare, and support systems (their parents, doctors, etc) but I don't think being able to work from home is going to make people want to live too far from cities while they are young.
- ghaff 2y ago
  And the fact is that those good schools, for example, are in the orbit of some of the more elite cities much of the time. SF’s geographical constraints I think sometimes mislead people into thinking towns near expensive cities are all equally expensive. Many cities that are themselves expensive have suburbs and exurbs, some of which are themselves very expensive, but others of which are much more moderate and often have decent school systems and may be within an hour for medical care or an evening’s entertainment.
carlosjobim 2y ago
Young people will never be able to afford a home by working, no matter how much they produce for the economy. It is commonplace now that young people at the workplace produce 5x as much as their older colleagues. But they are never rewarded for it. What they will get rewarded for though is getting (somebody) pregnant. Then the parents of both the father and mother will rush in to help them get real estate and to escape the dead end of working. In short, they can't afford to move out from the city until pregnancy opens the doors for them.
- beaeglebeachh 2y ago
  Lol this is the myth isn't it. Reality is getting screamed at by a toddler while you single-handedly build a depression era shack in desert wasteland for 40k, while simultaneously working full time and somehow caring for your kids too. Spend your time tearing your hair out, essentially working 3 full-time jobs while paying for daycare, rent, and construction materials so despite all this work your financials go into a black hole. My parents did send me a $100 Lowes gift card, so there is that. At least now I can do ghetto job of pretty much any building trade. It's mostly that having a kid lites the fire under your ass, not so much others are helping because they usually don't.
  - carlosjobim 2y ago
    My example is in the cases that young workers get any help at all. Some families do it old school and actually help their children without requiring pregnancy, but it's much rarer. And as you said, many families won't help at all.
- WheatMillington 2y ago
  >It is commonplace now that young people at the workplace produce 5x as much as their older colleagues. Is this commonplace? This doesn't match my experience, not in tech but in finance departments.
  - carlosjobim 2y ago
    In low margin or high intensity industries, you're not going to have anybody who doesn't pull their own weight, whether young or old. But for normal jobs, it's more or less the norm that a huge number of your long-time workers are doing hardly anything at all.
lmm 2y ago
> There’s nothing inevitable about young professionals wanting to live in cities and certainly not staying there. Successful people wanting to live in cities at least until they retire has been the pattern for centuries. The postwar US weirdness of zoning and "white flight" is the aberration, this is a return to the norm.

lugu 2y ago

> In my opinion the housing market is the real demographic dampener As simple as it is, I never though of it this way. It makes more sense to me than the commonly accepted explanation that kids are a liability in modern life. Thanks!

OccamsMirror 2y ago
It also explains why even in fairer countries with more financial support for new parents, such as Norway, are also not having kids anymore.