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It will take longer than 10 years to perfect FSD. We are in the infancy of self driving cars.
by cactusplant7374 2y ago
It will take longer than 10 years to perfect FSD. We are in the infancy of self driving cars.
- Aeolun 2y ago10 years is a long time. Ten years ago we barely had the first functional iPhone.
- karatinversion 2y agoThe iPhone launched 17 years ago. The correct rough approximation is now "20 years ago" :)
- hnbad 2y agoIn the field of AI, AGI has always been 20 years away since the '70s and that continues to hold true today.
- haiku2077 2y agoNo. The iPhone launched in '07, the app store in '08, and the iPhone 4 in '10. Ten years ago was '14.
- DaSHacka 2y ago> Ten years ago we barely had the first functional iPhone. The iPhone 6 was released almost ten years ago...
- jazzyjackson 2y agothe current iphone isn't all that different, i guess now we have copy paste, tap to pay, and encrypted drives
- jajko 2y agoBrace yourself for longer. I used to think 2030 would be the year of starting common FSD. Then I moved it to 2035. Then I realized I'll probably retire before it happens, and it became largely irrelevant topic for me.
- falcor84 2y agoWhy irrelevant? Having access to a robust self-driving car when I retire sounds like it would be really useful to me.
- intrasight 2y agoMy opinion is 5 years to "perfect". Qualified because nothing is perfect. I tell people that in 10 years, the insurance companies will charge 2x more to drive a car yourself. And in 20 years, you just won't be allowed to drive.
- SoftTalker 2y agoIt may happen but your timeframe is too short. A lot of people can't even afford cars that are less than 10 years old.
- intrasight 2y agoThey'd be taking robotaxis
- Retric 2y agoYour timeline makes no sense. Cars last 25+ years, so ~20% of people will be driving at least 20 years after self driving gets perfected and then standardized. Insurance companies raise and lower their premiums in response to risk. You might get a discount for self driving car eventually, but people who keep driving will just keep paying the same reasonably affordable rates as they do now.
- falcor84 2y ago> Cars last 25+ years, so ~20% of people will be driving at least 20 years after self driving gets perfected and then standardized. That's a bit of a leap. If and when FSD becomes sufficiently reliable to enable you to legally relinquish control to it, including have it take you anywhere even when you're intoxicated, without any personal liability, I expect adoption to ramp up very quickly. Also, depending on what technical solution ends up winning this race, it might be possible to convert existing old cars to FSD.
- SketchySeaBeast 2y agoI don't think most people buy cars for new features like that - most of America doesn't have that luxury. I'm also unsure as to conversion - many people can't/won't buy winter tires in environments that could use it, and there's no way I could imagine that a FSD conversion would be that cheap.
- bufferoverflow 2y agoYou should watch people driving with 12.3.5 FSD. Plenty of videos on YouTube. I'd say it's already safer than an average human driver.
- rurp 2y agoThis is about the dozenth Tesla software update I have heard this about, and so far none of them have lived up to the hype. Youtube videos are way too easy to cherry pick and/or fake for this kind of analysis.
- bufferoverflow 2y agoWell, if you refuse to learn, we can't help you.
- falcor84 2y agoAgreed, but I don't think it needs to be perfect to be useful enough to be mandated. I would suggest a mechanism whereby a car would be able to identify whether its driver is no longer in proper control of the vehicle (e.g. asleep) and then assess the road conditions, and if it isn't confident in its ability to continue self-driving to the designated destination, it would self-drive into a safe stop. I think that on its own could massively reduce road accidents
- lordnacho 2y agoIn 2015 I went for dinner with a guy who worked on one of the big self driving projects, and he assured me that we'd all have FSD by 2018.