6 ms·

Just like seatbelts and backup cameras, autonomous driving systems should be mandatory in vehicles within the next 10 years.

cactusplant7374 2y ago
It will take longer than 10 years to perfect FSD. We are in the infancy of self driving cars.
- Aeolun 2y ago
  10 years is a long time. Ten years ago we barely had the first functional iPhone.
  - karatinversion 2y ago
    The iPhone launched 17 years ago. The correct rough approximation is now "20 years ago" :)
    - hnbad 2y ago
      In the field of AI, AGI has always been 20 years away since the '70s and that continues to hold true today.
  - haiku2077 2y ago
    No. The iPhone launched in '07, the app store in '08, and the iPhone 4 in '10. Ten years ago was '14.
  - DaSHacka 2y ago
    > Ten years ago we barely had the first functional iPhone. The iPhone 6 was released almost ten years ago...
  - jazzyjackson 2y ago
    the current iphone isn't all that different, i guess now we have copy paste, tap to pay, and encrypted drives
  - jajko 2y ago
    Brace yourself for longer. I used to think 2030 would be the year of starting common FSD. Then I moved it to 2035. Then I realized I'll probably retire before it happens, and it became largely irrelevant topic for me.
    - falcor84 2y ago
      Why irrelevant? Having access to a robust self-driving car when I retire sounds like it would be really useful to me.
- intrasight 2y ago
  My opinion is 5 years to "perfect". Qualified because nothing is perfect. I tell people that in 10 years, the insurance companies will charge 2x more to drive a car yourself. And in 20 years, you just won't be allowed to drive.
  - SoftTalker 2y ago
    It may happen but your timeframe is too short. A lot of people can't even afford cars that are less than 10 years old.
    - intrasight 2y ago
      They'd be taking robotaxis
  - Retric 2y ago
    Your timeline makes no sense. Cars last 25+ years, so ~20% of people will be driving at least 20 years after self driving gets perfected and then standardized. Insurance companies raise and lower their premiums in response to risk. You might get a discount for self driving car eventually, but people who keep driving will just keep paying the same reasonably affordable rates as they do now.
    - falcor84 2y ago
      > Cars last 25+ years, so ~20% of people will be driving at least 20 years after self driving gets perfected and then standardized. That's a bit of a leap. If and when FSD becomes sufficiently reliable to enable you to legally relinquish control to it, including have it take you anywhere even when you're intoxicated, without any personal liability, I expect adoption to ramp up very quickly. Also, depending on what technical solution ends up winning this race, it might be possible to convert existing old cars to FSD.
      - SketchySeaBeast 2y ago
        I don't think most people buy cars for new features like that - most of America doesn't have that luxury. I'm also unsure as to conversion - many people can't/won't buy winter tires in environments that could use it, and there's no way I could imagine that a FSD conversion would be that cheap.
- bufferoverflow 2y ago
  You should watch people driving with 12.3.5 FSD. Plenty of videos on YouTube. I'd say it's already safer than an average human driver.
  - rurp 2y ago
    This is about the dozenth Tesla software update I have heard this about, and so far none of them have lived up to the hype. Youtube videos are way too easy to cherry pick and/or fake for this kind of analysis.
    - bufferoverflow 2y ago
      Well, if you refuse to learn, we can't help you.
- falcor84 2y ago
  Agreed, but I don't think it needs to be perfect to be useful enough to be mandated. I would suggest a mechanism whereby a car would be able to identify whether its driver is no longer in proper control of the vehicle (e.g. asleep) and then assess the road conditions, and if it isn't confident in its ability to continue self-driving to the designated destination, it would self-drive into a safe stop. I think that on its own could massively reduce road accidents
- lordnacho 2y ago
  In 2015 I went for dinner with a guy who worked on one of the big self driving projects, and he assured me that we'd all have FSD by 2018.
FinnKuhn 2y ago
In the EU a lot of driving assistance systems are already mandatory for new cars today [1]. [1] https://ec.europa.eu/docsroom/documents/50774/attachments/2/translations/en/renditions/native https://ec.europa.eu/docsroom/documents/50774/attachments/2/... [pdf]
- SketchySeaBeast 2y ago
  While it's a step in the direction and some of the pieces are coming into place, it's still a long way to go for a holistic solution.
sumeno 2y ago
Seatbelts and backup cameras existed for decades before they became mandatory. Fully autonomous driving systems do not exist and are not likely to for many years
- matthewfelgate 2y ago
  Did they though? The three-point seatbelt was invented in 1959 and became mandatory in the United States in 1966.
  - sumeno 2y ago
    Lap belts existed well before that
  - eesmith 2y ago
    Three-point seat belts were not mandatory in 1966. The first law was in 1968 and it required only lap and shoulder seat belt assemblies in each front outboard seating position. Other seating positions could have lap or lap and shoulder seat belt assemblies. https://web.archive.org/web/20140529033515/http://www.nhtsa.gov/cars/rules/import/fmvss/ https://web.archive.org/web/20140529033515/http://www.nhtsa.... And that was only required as part of the standard equipment. People were not required to use them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seat_belt_laws_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seat_belt_laws_in_the_United_S... says "Seat belt use was voluntary until New York became the first state to require vehicle occupants to wear seat belts, as of December 1, 1984." Nor were all passengers required to use three-point seat belts. https://www.consumerreports.org/car-safety/anatomy-of-the-modern-seat-belt/ https://www.consumerreports.org/car-safety/anatomy-of-the-mo... says it wasn't until 1989 that "Cars are required to have three-point lap-and-shoulder belts in the outboard rear seats." From 1959 to 1989 is 30 years. FWIW, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seat_belt https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seat_belt notes: > The first modern three-point seat belt (the so-called CIR-Griswold restraint) commonly used in consumer vehicles was patented in 1955 U.S. patent 2,710,649 by the Americans Roger W. Griswold and Hugh DeHaven. before later saying: > The three-point seat belt was developed to its modern form by Swedish inventor Nils Bohlin for Volvo, which introduced it in 1959 as standard equipment. The 1955 US patent can be seen at https://patents.google.com/patent/US2710649A/en https://patents.google.com/patent/US2710649A/en .
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
gertrunde 2y ago
Some features are better than others... I find adaptive cruise and reversing cameras really useful, whereas I find lane assistance features quite dangerous. It's exactly what you want while going around a corner - the steering wheel jumping under your hands, and making you jump/panic. Although - on the other hand, there's nothing quite like having to fight the car for control of the steering wheel to solve drowsiness... Emergency braking is another one that I tend to find is almost entirely false positives. Overtaking a wagon on the motorway, lets trigger the emergency brake! Steep angle in the multi-story car park, lets trigger the emergency brake!

cactusplant7374 2y ago

It will take longer than 10 years to perfect FSD. We are in the infancy of self driving cars.

Aeolun 2y ago
10 years is a long time. Ten years ago we barely had the first functional iPhone.
- karatinversion 2y ago
  The iPhone launched 17 years ago. The correct rough approximation is now "20 years ago" :)
  - hnbad 2y ago
    In the field of AI, AGI has always been 20 years away since the '70s and that continues to hold true today.
- haiku2077 2y ago
  No. The iPhone launched in '07, the app store in '08, and the iPhone 4 in '10. Ten years ago was '14.
- DaSHacka 2y ago
  > Ten years ago we barely had the first functional iPhone. The iPhone 6 was released almost ten years ago...
- jazzyjackson 2y ago
  the current iphone isn't all that different, i guess now we have copy paste, tap to pay, and encrypted drives
- jajko 2y ago
  Brace yourself for longer. I used to think 2030 would be the year of starting common FSD. Then I moved it to 2035. Then I realized I'll probably retire before it happens, and it became largely irrelevant topic for me.
  - falcor84 2y ago
    Why irrelevant? Having access to a robust self-driving car when I retire sounds like it would be really useful to me.
intrasight 2y ago
My opinion is 5 years to "perfect". Qualified because nothing is perfect. I tell people that in 10 years, the insurance companies will charge 2x more to drive a car yourself. And in 20 years, you just won't be allowed to drive.
- SoftTalker 2y ago
  It may happen but your timeframe is too short. A lot of people can't even afford cars that are less than 10 years old.
  - intrasight 2y ago
    They'd be taking robotaxis
- Retric 2y ago
  Your timeline makes no sense. Cars last 25+ years, so ~20% of people will be driving at least 20 years after self driving gets perfected and then standardized. Insurance companies raise and lower their premiums in response to risk. You might get a discount for self driving car eventually, but people who keep driving will just keep paying the same reasonably affordable rates as they do now.
  - falcor84 2y ago
    > Cars last 25+ years, so ~20% of people will be driving at least 20 years after self driving gets perfected and then standardized. That's a bit of a leap. If and when FSD becomes sufficiently reliable to enable you to legally relinquish control to it, including have it take you anywhere even when you're intoxicated, without any personal liability, I expect adoption to ramp up very quickly. Also, depending on what technical solution ends up winning this race, it might be possible to convert existing old cars to FSD.
    - SketchySeaBeast 2y ago
      I don't think most people buy cars for new features like that - most of America doesn't have that luxury. I'm also unsure as to conversion - many people can't/won't buy winter tires in environments that could use it, and there's no way I could imagine that a FSD conversion would be that cheap.
bufferoverflow 2y ago
You should watch people driving with 12.3.5 FSD. Plenty of videos on YouTube. I'd say it's already safer than an average human driver.
- rurp 2y ago
  This is about the dozenth Tesla software update I have heard this about, and so far none of them have lived up to the hype. Youtube videos are way too easy to cherry pick and/or fake for this kind of analysis.
  - bufferoverflow 2y ago
    Well, if you refuse to learn, we can't help you.
falcor84 2y ago
Agreed, but I don't think it needs to be perfect to be useful enough to be mandated. I would suggest a mechanism whereby a car would be able to identify whether its driver is no longer in proper control of the vehicle (e.g. asleep) and then assess the road conditions, and if it isn't confident in its ability to continue self-driving to the designated destination, it would self-drive into a safe stop. I think that on its own could massively reduce road accidents
lordnacho 2y ago
In 2015 I went for dinner with a guy who worked on one of the big self driving projects, and he assured me that we'd all have FSD by 2018.

FinnKuhn 2y ago

In the EU a lot of driving assistance systems are already mandatory for new cars today [1]. [1] https://ec.europa.eu/docsroom/documents/50774/attachments/2/translations/en/renditions/native https://ec.europa.eu/docsroom/documents/50774/attachments/2/... [pdf]

SketchySeaBeast 2y ago
While it's a step in the direction and some of the pieces are coming into place, it's still a long way to go for a holistic solution.

sumeno 2y ago

Seatbelts and backup cameras existed for decades before they became mandatory. Fully autonomous driving systems do not exist and are not likely to for many years

matthewfelgate 2y ago
Did they though? The three-point seatbelt was invented in 1959 and became mandatory in the United States in 1966.
- sumeno 2y ago
  Lap belts existed well before that
- eesmith 2y ago
  Three-point seat belts were not mandatory in 1966. The first law was in 1968 and it required only lap and shoulder seat belt assemblies in each front outboard seating position. Other seating positions could have lap or lap and shoulder seat belt assemblies. https://web.archive.org/web/20140529033515/http://www.nhtsa.gov/cars/rules/import/fmvss/ https://web.archive.org/web/20140529033515/http://www.nhtsa.... And that was only required as part of the standard equipment. People were not required to use them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seat_belt_laws_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seat_belt_laws_in_the_United_S... says "Seat belt use was voluntary until New York became the first state to require vehicle occupants to wear seat belts, as of December 1, 1984." Nor were all passengers required to use three-point seat belts. https://www.consumerreports.org/car-safety/anatomy-of-the-modern-seat-belt/ https://www.consumerreports.org/car-safety/anatomy-of-the-mo... says it wasn't until 1989 that "Cars are required to have three-point lap-and-shoulder belts in the outboard rear seats." From 1959 to 1989 is 30 years. FWIW, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seat_belt https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seat_belt notes: > The first modern three-point seat belt (the so-called CIR-Griswold restraint) commonly used in consumer vehicles was patented in 1955 U.S. patent 2,710,649 by the Americans Roger W. Griswold and Hugh DeHaven. before later saying: > The three-point seat belt was developed to its modern form by Swedish inventor Nils Bohlin for Volvo, which introduced it in 1959 as standard equipment. The 1955 US patent can be seen at https://patents.google.com/patent/US2710649A/en https://patents.google.com/patent/US2710649A/en .

deleted 2y ago

[deleted]

gertrunde 2y ago

Some features are better than others... I find adaptive cruise and reversing cameras really useful, whereas I find lane assistance features quite dangerous. It's exactly what you want while going around a corner - the steering wheel jumping under your hands, and making you jump/panic. Although - on the other hand, there's nothing quite like having to fight the car for control of the steering wheel to solve drowsiness... Emergency braking is another one that I tend to find is almost entirely false positives. Overtaking a wagon on the motorway, lets trigger the emergency brake! Steep angle in the multi-story car park, lets trigger the emergency brake!