3 ms·

I had a professor once say that when the lottery gets really big, at that point, it's not gambling, it's an investment. But keep it small. It's interesting the

I had a professor once say that when the lottery gets really big, at that point, it's not gambling, it's an investment. But keep it small. It's interesting the types of people who can walk into a casino like you and I and say OK, $20, that's all I'm spending. We lose that and we say good night. Other people… They say no, I can win this, and so they go and spend another $20. That decision point - to continue or withdraw - is utterly fascinating.

neilk 3y ago
Out of curiosity I once went into a very small-time casino. I ended up at a blackjack table with various characters, one of whom was a single mom. She said she was playing to get money to buy the kids Easter chocolate. She was quite experienced and was up a few hundred dollars for a while. And she said that was it, she was leaving. And then she didn’t. And then lost it all. And then gained some back. And lost that too. By the time I’d slowly bled away my $20 and gave up, she was still there.
swozey 3y ago
Hell I go in with $20 just to get the free drinks and sit there bored out of my mind hitting some stupid button that occasionally gives me another round of drinks or not. I am so sick of Vegas and will never go to another conference there.
SketchySeaBeast 3y ago
> I had a professor once say that when the lottery gets really big, at that point, it's not gambling, it's an investment. But keep it small. This seems like funny logic. My local provincial lottery can range from $5 to $50 million. If I were to accept that I could possibly win, anything in that range is a ridiculous sum of money for me - easily more than I am likely to make for the remainder of my career. I know I won't win if I play, but if I thought I might I can't figure out why $5M is gambling, but $50M would be an investment. Either way, it's absolutely life changing "quit my job tomorrow" money.
- ToValueFunfetti 3y ago
  If a ticket costs $1 and you have a 1 in 10 million chance of a win, any payout larger than $10 million (after taxes) gives a positive expected return. Unwise to invest your life savings on a longshot, but still worth buying a few tickets if the expected return exceeds the market rate. I believe the Kelly criterion gets you to an exact percentage of your wealth to spend on tickets.
  - chii 3y ago
    > any payout larger than $10 million (after taxes) gives a positive expected return. and conditional on you being the sole winner too (unless the lottery is guaranteed to only have one winner).
    - scarmig 3y ago
      Taxes, too: the government will be taking over a third of your winnings for a big payout.
      - ac2u 3y ago
        depends on the country
  - SJC_Hacker 3y ago
    Discounting the possibility of multiple winners splitting the jackpot, and not taking into account taxes on the earnings.
  - SketchySeaBeast 3y ago
    Sure, if you take the whole population, then each ticket will, on average, be worth more than $1. That doesn't change the odds of my making money back on this. There's going to be a handful of people who massively skew the statistics, but it doesn't mean that for the vast majority of players the odds get any better or that their ticket becomes more winning. Expected return doesn't matter on a ticket by ticket basis when the odds and winnings are so skewed, it creates an illusion of worthiness that doesn't exist for the single player.
theGeatZhopa 3y ago
That's the part what causes addiction. First you win. Then you lose. Then you win. A feeling of success and happiness will overcome you (that hormones..). People who can't stop are possible gambling addicts already, or, are about to become ones without even noticing by themselves. And further, I classify myself to: I wouldn't even go to a casino except it's the money I found right before it's entrance I want to spend there. And that actually minimize the possibility that I'll ever will make the experience how it is to feel lucky/lose/win in a series, minimizing my understanding of such a situation. And that's may be is the point we don't understand how it is, not to be able to leave after 20 bucks are lost, but rather try to get it back. Just a thought. (I compare it to an alcoholic. One alcohol addict, because too often & too much & too good feelings. One occasional drinker will never go over the threshold. One who never drinks can't even understand how it is to want to get drunk.)
chefandy 3y ago
With gambling, that dopamine rush and crash is pretty intense, so I can wrap my head around that. That TikTok, Twitter or even Facebook leverage the same reaction to keep people glued to their phones consuming bullshit that they otherwise wouldn't even care about fascinates me.

neilk 3y ago

Out of curiosity I once went into a very small-time casino. I ended up at a blackjack table with various characters, one of whom was a single mom. She said she was playing to get money to buy the kids Easter chocolate. She was quite experienced and was up a few hundred dollars for a while. And she said that was it, she was leaving. And then she didn’t. And then lost it all. And then gained some back. And lost that too. By the time I’d slowly bled away my $20 and gave up, she was still there.

swozey 3y ago

Hell I go in with $20 just to get the free drinks and sit there bored out of my mind hitting some stupid button that occasionally gives me another round of drinks or not. I am so sick of Vegas and will never go to another conference there.

SketchySeaBeast 3y ago

> I had a professor once say that when the lottery gets really big, at that point, it's not gambling, it's an investment. But keep it small. This seems like funny logic. My local provincial lottery can range from $5 to $50 million. If I were to accept that I could possibly win, anything in that range is a ridiculous sum of money for me - easily more than I am likely to make for the remainder of my career. I know I won't win if I play, but if I thought I might I can't figure out why $5M is gambling, but $50M would be an investment. Either way, it's absolutely life changing "quit my job tomorrow" money.

ToValueFunfetti 3y ago
If a ticket costs $1 and you have a 1 in 10 million chance of a win, any payout larger than $10 million (after taxes) gives a positive expected return. Unwise to invest your life savings on a longshot, but still worth buying a few tickets if the expected return exceeds the market rate. I believe the Kelly criterion gets you to an exact percentage of your wealth to spend on tickets.
- chii 3y ago
  > any payout larger than $10 million (after taxes) gives a positive expected return. and conditional on you being the sole winner too (unless the lottery is guaranteed to only have one winner).
  - scarmig 3y ago
    Taxes, too: the government will be taking over a third of your winnings for a big payout.
    - ac2u 3y ago
      depends on the country
- SJC_Hacker 3y ago
  Discounting the possibility of multiple winners splitting the jackpot, and not taking into account taxes on the earnings.
- SketchySeaBeast 3y ago
  Sure, if you take the whole population, then each ticket will, on average, be worth more than $1. That doesn't change the odds of my making money back on this. There's going to be a handful of people who massively skew the statistics, but it doesn't mean that for the vast majority of players the odds get any better or that their ticket becomes more winning. Expected return doesn't matter on a ticket by ticket basis when the odds and winnings are so skewed, it creates an illusion of worthiness that doesn't exist for the single player.

theGeatZhopa 3y ago

That's the part what causes addiction. First you win. Then you lose. Then you win. A feeling of success and happiness will overcome you (that hormones..). People who can't stop are possible gambling addicts already, or, are about to become ones without even noticing by themselves. And further, I classify myself to: I wouldn't even go to a casino except it's the money I found right before it's entrance I want to spend there. And that actually minimize the possibility that I'll ever will make the experience how it is to feel lucky/lose/win in a series, minimizing my understanding of such a situation. And that's may be is the point we don't understand how it is, not to be able to leave after 20 bucks are lost, but rather try to get it back. Just a thought. (I compare it to an alcoholic. One alcohol addict, because too often & too much & too good feelings. One occasional drinker will never go over the threshold. One who never drinks can't even understand how it is to want to get drunk.)

chefandy 3y ago

With gambling, that dopamine rush and crash is pretty intense, so I can wrap my head around that. That TikTok, Twitter or even Facebook leverage the same reaction to keep people glued to their phones consuming bullshit that they otherwise wouldn't even care about fascinates me.