8 ms·

The coming Chinese EV storm will cause Tesla to struggle. All car manufacturers will struggle. I wonder if the Chinese will pull a Toyota (high quality, and ch

The coming Chinese EV storm will cause Tesla to struggle. All car manufacturers will struggle. I wonder if the Chinese will pull a Toyota (high quality, and cheap) or if they’ll end up being a different flavor

api 3y ago
I’m not in the car biz and I’ve seen this coming with clarity for over a decade. If I can see it then how is it that every car company hasn’t been preparing low cost EV offerings of their own? A few are but most seem in denial. Ford is the only US one I’ve heard rumors about having something in the works. Tesla meanwhile spent tons of capital and time on ridiculous microniche products like the cybertruck.
- LunaSea 3y ago
  > If I can see it then how is it that every car company hasn’t been preparing low cost EV offerings of their own? Because the low cost Chinese EVs is a dumping operation organised by China thanks to low cost manufacturing and large public subsidies. You can't necessarily compete against this as a company if your government doesn't protect you.
  - __alexs 3y ago
    Dumping is a specific thing. Are Chinese EVs priced lower in international markets than domestically?
    - echoangle 3y ago
      Is that a requirement for dumping? Isn’t Dumping just selling at a loss?
      - dagw 3y ago
        Is that a requirement for dumping? From a legal/WTO case standpoint, yes. Selling at a loss in general is perfectly legal, and lots of companies do that for all kinds of perfectly legitimate reasons. Using price discrimination to sell at a loss only in certain markets with the intention of damaging the domestic market in that region is when you get into trouble.
    - LunaSea 3y ago
      > Dumping is a specific thing. Are Chinese EVs priced lower in international markets than domestically? I'm not sure but I don't believe that the price difference between China and the rest of the world would be the issue. The biggest problem is killing of the international competition by having artificially low prices.
      - blitzar 3y ago
        > by having artificially low prices Chinese car manufacturers probably make more $'s on each car sold than US manufactures.
        mythhabit 3y ago
        That not hard if your production and/or materials is subsidised by the state, in an attempt to outcompete western companies.
        blitzar 3y ago
        > subsidised by the state Like the $7b in subsidies each for ford and gm or the 100bn in free loans? Perhaps the 3bn in subsidies for tesla.
        mythhabit 3y ago
        Not saying USA is not doing it, and both Germany and France is doing it as well in the wake of Corona. But the amount is visible and until we get more transparency, we can only assume that China is doing it even more, because they are known to do that for strategically important sectors.
      - __alexs 3y ago
        Under the WTO definition of dumping it absolutely is. https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/adp_e/adp_e.htm https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/adp_e/adp_e.htm
    - mauvehaus 3y ago
      Dumping is more specific than that. What you're describing is simple price discrimination. Dumping additionally requires that the good be sold internationally for less than the cost of production.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
  - bryanlarsen 3y ago
    AFAICT China isn't dumping. They're subsidizing internal consumption. A Chinese EV is ~$10,000 cheaper in China than it is outside of China. This is a massive advantage to Chinese vehicle manufacturers. They can scale up production using the internal market, and then use that scale to push down the external unsubsidised price. Pretty much exactly the same as the US. An American EV is about $10,000 cheaper in the US than elsewhere. $7500 because of the rebate, and the rest in shipping and other costs.
- Rinzler89 3y ago
  >I’m not in the car biz and I’ve seen this coming with clarity for over a decade. Me too. I was working in the German automotive industry back then, and left when I saw Tesla and China going full steam ahead on all things EV while German car makers were still pushing on diesel, and still do. >If I can see it then how is it that every car company hasn’t been preparing low cost EV offerings of their own? For the same reason Kodak invented the first digital camera and then shelved it to not compete with their film manufacturing business long enough for the Japanese to beat them at digital and kill them. Big corporations are fiefdoms with vested interest to maintain their status quo, not to push to company to self-disrupt itself, meaning they'll just wait and watch someone else eats their lunch.
  - mcntsh 3y ago
    German cars are notorious for having unreliable electrical components. Now imagine the whole car is electric.
    - The_Colonel 3y ago
      German cars usually have (together with Japanese, I'd say) the best reputation in reliability. And ICE cars are full of electrical components, perhaps more so than the electric cars (since ICE cars are generally more complex than electric ones). So I struggle to reconcile your comment with what I hear ...
      - gorbypark 3y ago
        Reputation for reliability doesn't mean reliable! In most top 10 list of reliable car brands (as a whole) there might be one or two German brand in there (with Mini usually being the highest of the German brands).
      - dosethree 3y ago
        I've never heard of german cars being known for most reliable. And when they break they are the most expensive to fix. For example audis always had issues with oil leaking and in the US audi mechanics charge the most per hour and they are hard to work on. according to consumer reports, bmw is the most reliable at 9th most reliable automaker, audi and merc are way down
- rsynnott 3y ago
  > If I can see it then how is it that every car company hasn’t been preparing low cost EV offerings of their own? They... have, though? As far as I know, most of the European ones have at least one more or less ready to go. Generally not on the _extreme_ low end (ie not competing with the 10k BYD), but Renault, VW and Stellantis all have models in the 20-25k range pre-subsidy due to launch in the next year. The Dacia Spring (20k) has already been out for a bit, of course.
  - Rinzler89 3y ago
    Dacia Spring is a Chinese designed and built car with a Dacia badge on it. It's really not great by EU standards[1]. The steel panels on it are incredibly thin and flimsy. It's more of an four wheel electric tuk-tuk with a shell, designed to reach a cheap EV price point. For some users that's good enough but for some it's a no-go. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrXgJD4tooI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrXgJD4tooI
- mschuster91 3y ago
  > If I can see it then how is it that every car company hasn’t been preparing low cost EV offerings of their own? Because they didn't believe that EVs or small cars were something that could be profitable, at least not compared to the high margin, cash cow SUVs. Instead, they did what they did the last few decades - invest into lobbying to keep emission standards relaxed. Only when Volkswagen and a fair few others got caught cheating, that business model went down the drain and suddenly they had to change. > A few are but most seem in denial. Ford is the only US one I’ve heard rumors about having something in the works. BMW is investing almost two billion dollars into its Spartanburg plant to produce electric versions of the X series SUVs [1]. > Tesla meanwhile spent tons of capital and time on ridiculous microniche products like the cybertruck. Indeed. The thing is a joke on wheels... it shows that unlike SpaceX with Gwynne Shotwell, Tesla (and Twitter) don't have an "Elon handler" responsible for pushing back. [1] https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/article/detail/T0422170EN/ready-for-the-electric-future:-groundbreaking-on-new-bmw-group-high-voltage-battery-assembly-factory-in-south-carolina-usa?language=en https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/article/detail/T042217...
  - api 3y ago
    Tangent but: the ultimate "Elon handler" at SpaceX is not just Shotwell but NASA, the DOD, and their satellite customers. Space launch is not like cars or really most other products. Your customer is highly technical and highly informed and they absolutely will not launch on a rocket that doesn't meet certain design criteria and in many cases they will require the ability to review the rocket's actual design blueprints and software (with NDA in place). NASA and the DOD will demand this, full stop. If SpaceX didn't have someone like Shotwell pretty much running the show there's no chance they'd ever get a customer beyond the low end of the satellite launch market. They'd also have trouble getting the FAA to allow them to fly, and with good reason. A rocket is basically a bomb that explodes in one direction, and many of its failure modes involve it exploding in all directions. Elon's been great (at least in the past) at assembling teams, getting funding, and motivating people to do really hard shit. (Not sure how he'd fare today with his baggage... his brand has taken a hit.) He also knows enough about engineering to hire competent engineers. Beyond that I see little sign that he's actually good at managing or day to day operation and certainly seems no good at product design. This differs from Jobs who at least had killer intuition there. Jobs would have laughed the cybertruck out of the room.
- panick21_ 3y ago
  Because its not as easy as just saying "lets make low cost EV". That has to do with battery and supplychain. EV already need gigantic capital investment on it own. All these companies have massive debt, low margin, need to continue to make money on ICE.l, transition to EV. To also make a profital low cost EV is insanly hard. They are struggling to develop a profitable high cost EV. A lot of the supply chain is in China, so investing in that is pretty hard.
  - acdha 3y ago
    It’s true that they need to invest more but that’s a self-inflicted problem: they have enormous resources and lavish government support available but they really want the high-margin light-truck era to continue and have been treating EVs as a fad they’ll support only if ICE buyers are willing to overpay as much as ICE SUV buyers have. We’re reading about Ford cancelling battery plants, not being unable to find funding. When Chevy cancelled the Bolt, it was their best selling EV - but not nearly as profitable as the luxury models they wanted people to buy.
    - panick21_ 3y ago
      Every Bolt they sold was losing them money. Like literally making significant negative money. Its simply impossible for them to scale up the Bolt as is. Their plan was to rebase the Bolt onto the Ultium platform, but with all the issues they had on that platform, they weren't able to do it. If it was on Ultium then maybe they could not lose money on it.
      - acdha 3y ago
        That’s a separate issue: the point was that there’s demand at normal price points, less so in the higher-end ranges they targeted. Most of the commonly cited reasons for the low 1-2% margins were things like battery plants where startup costs are high but will not be a problem when they resolve yield issues.
        panick21_ 3y ago
helsinkiandrew 3y ago
I read (but unfortunately can't find source) that Chinese manufacturers are 2 to 3 years ahead in being able to ship solid state battery technology For example: https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/china-brand-hyper-use-solid-state-batteries-evs-2026 https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/china-brand-hyper-use... (archive: https://archive.ph/LlQV2 https://archive.ph/LlQV2) https://uk.motor1.com/news/715871/im-l6-ev-solid-state-battery-sale/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://uk.motor1.com/news/715871/im-l6-ev-solid-state-batte...
- panick21_ 3y ago
  Solid state is mostly a marketing term. There is no inherent reason a solid battery is better. Solid state isnt some magical pill for EV success.
  - peutetre 3y ago
    With solid state batteries you can puncture them, cut them, and shoot them with a bullet. It's much harder to make them catch fire and they keep working: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9-cNNYb1Ik https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9-cNNYb1Ik https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZOubFHO1I3o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZOubFHO1I3o
    - mavhc 3y ago
      Same as LFP batteries then?
      - peutetre 3y ago
        No.
        bryanlarsen 3y ago
        Sure LFP won't keep working after being shot, but is that a difference that matters? The important part is the "doesn't catch fire".
ho243i2434324 3y ago
[flagged]
- mschuster91 3y ago
  > The battery economics really doesn't seem to work. Huh what? Tesla hasn't been selling at a loss for years, in Q3/2022 they made a solid 15.000$ pure profit per car - that's what allowed them to cut prices without going into losses in the first place. [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-uses-its-profits-weapon-an-ev-price-war-2023-01-19/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-...
  - ho243i2434324 3y ago
    I mean macro-economics in the long-run. As a niche, it's fine and profitable; but ICE market is just too massive, and replacing large parts of the supply-chain and transport-infrastructure will likely cause issues on the supply side. https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2023/01/24/researchers-warn-the-ev-transition-needs-too-much-nasty-lithium--thats-not-how-transitions-work/?sh=431dc95b49bf https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2023/01/24/resear...
    - panick21_ 3y ago
      Hydrogens issue as an order of magnitude worse. Batterie had 10 years of massive investment and an ever growing market share. The supply chain issues are being worked on. Hydrogen cars a statistically insignificant and have basically no growth. The supply chain has seen little investment and there is not even a prospect that any real investment will go into. Its the same old 'get governments to pay oil/car company to sell a fake future'.
      - ho243i2434324 3y ago
        The efficiency of Hydrolysis is definitely a big issue, but still, it's not a hard-supply issue like Lithium/Cobalt.
typeofhuman 3y ago
That's the "bloodbath" Trump was talking about. And China is going through Mexico to import their vehicles into the US.
- tnel77 3y ago
  The price of cars is pretty ridiculous so I’m at a point where I welcome some competition. I’d prefer to buy non-Chinese, but these companies need to remember how to make an affordable vehicle.
  - grugagag 3y ago
    It would probably kill the whole US industry.
    - tnel77 3y ago
      Surely they could cut into their profits and innovate?
  - choko 3y ago
    Id rather pay more and have no Chinese involvement. China is not your friend.
    - red-iron-pine 3y ago
      other large vehicle manufacturers aren't your friend, either.
    - tnel77 3y ago
      I don’t mind paying more for a non-Chinese vehicle, but I think some of the price gouging by US companies could calm down.
    - thehappypm 3y ago
      Competition is good.
  - 3y ago
suoduandao3 3y ago
I visited China over the Christmas Holidays last year. Reliable and cheap sums up what I saw from electric vehicles at the time. The taxi I took also did a battery swap in the middle of our trip, which took maybe five minutes and was heartening to watch. I think Tesla is still the luxury brand even in China, and that can sustain a company for a long time, but I predict it'll lose more market share for a while.
- sgt 3y ago
  Elon Musk even says so himself that he believes Chinese EV's are good. His personal experience from a couple of years ago, and also as per his team feedback recently. Source: https://podcasts.apple.com/no/podcast/in-good-company-with-nicolai-tangen/id1614211565 https://podcasts.apple.com/no/podcast/in-good-company-with-n... (Episode from 9 Apr 2024 - interview with Elon Musk)
choko 3y ago
Anyone that says they won't buy a Tesla due to Elon's antics but will buy a Chinese EV is a hypocrite. China is a fascist state and no company does anything without party involvement.
- chrsw 3y ago
  I agree that sounds hypocritical but I don't see a lot of people saying that. I don't even know if I can buy cheap Chinese EVs in the US, or when I'll be able to. It's not really an option that's on the table as far as I can tell. I think the bottom line for many people is EVs are still not as cheap as ICE options and definitely not as convenient, yet. When that situation changes I don't know why most consumers would stick to ICE.
  - alephnerd 3y ago
    > I don't even know if I can buy cheap Chinese EVs in the US The only one you can is the EX30, but even that's more pricy than a Tesla Model 3. The truly cheap EVs you see in Asia (eg. The lower end BYD, Zeekr, MGs) are aimed at developing markets, not developed. And yes, plenty of Eastern European members of the EU (the ones where the cheaper end EV makers are targeting) are still developing/emerging markets - Romania, Hungary, Poland, and Bulgaria still are developing (though might not be in 10-15 years). Higher end Chinese EVs like Polestar and Volvo (Volvo has been Geely for almost 2 decades now) are aimed at developed countries, in order to manage the brand perception.
    - ulfw 3y ago
      Chinese EV brands and models are available all over Europe and the rest of the free world. US is an exception. Many western brands are manufacturing in China and exporting globally (Tesla, Geely/Volvo/Polestar, BMW Mini, Mercedes smart, Renault etc. Hell even the Dacia EV is actually a Chinese car). Some of those are entering the US (Volvo, Polestar, Mini)
      - alephnerd 3y ago
sjducb 3y ago
I test drove a BYD seal recently. It was much better than the model 3. All of the marketing was around crash safety.
ta1243 3y ago
The adtech industry in the west has driven the normality of constantly connected devices. Now we'll have the chineese government constantly connected instead of just the billionaires. You won't be able to get a car which isn't connected, just like its increasingly hard to get a TV that isn't connected. The cultural acceptance of this has been driven from the trillions spent by advertising companies in double-dipping -- companies not content with making a product and selling it for a markup, they have to squeeze an extra $10 out of that $500 TV -- and that has massively weakened the security of society, both directly (Internet of Shit) and through expectations (IoT supply chains controlled by hostile agents)
barrenko 3y ago
Plenty of Europe's ports filled with chinese EVs nobody is buying.
- mostlysimilar 3y ago
  Source?
  - barrenko 3y ago
    https://www.ft.com/content/496f3bfa-9f0c-4145-9024-188572a280fd https://www.ft.com/content/496f3bfa-9f0c-4145-9024-188572a28...
xtracto 3y ago
I was amazed at those "battery swap" stations that popped all over china for motorcycles. That's a great solution for electric cars: Install "battery swap" walls on each gas station, and make cars allowing said battery swap (if the car "floor" is full of batteries, make it so that it is split in "packs" that can be pulled from the side to be swapped)

api 3y ago

I’m not in the car biz and I’ve seen this coming with clarity for over a decade. If I can see it then how is it that every car company hasn’t been preparing low cost EV offerings of their own? A few are but most seem in denial. Ford is the only US one I’ve heard rumors about having something in the works. Tesla meanwhile spent tons of capital and time on ridiculous microniche products like the cybertruck.

LunaSea 3y ago
> If I can see it then how is it that every car company hasn’t been preparing low cost EV offerings of their own? Because the low cost Chinese EVs is a dumping operation organised by China thanks to low cost manufacturing and large public subsidies. You can't necessarily compete against this as a company if your government doesn't protect you.
- __alexs 3y ago
  Dumping is a specific thing. Are Chinese EVs priced lower in international markets than domestically?
  - echoangle 3y ago
    Is that a requirement for dumping? Isn’t Dumping just selling at a loss?
    - dagw 3y ago
      Is that a requirement for dumping? From a legal/WTO case standpoint, yes. Selling at a loss in general is perfectly legal, and lots of companies do that for all kinds of perfectly legitimate reasons. Using price discrimination to sell at a loss only in certain markets with the intention of damaging the domestic market in that region is when you get into trouble.
  - LunaSea 3y ago
    > Dumping is a specific thing. Are Chinese EVs priced lower in international markets than domestically? I'm not sure but I don't believe that the price difference between China and the rest of the world would be the issue. The biggest problem is killing of the international competition by having artificially low prices.
    - blitzar 3y ago
      > by having artificially low prices Chinese car manufacturers probably make more $'s on each car sold than US manufactures.
      - mythhabit 3y ago
        That not hard if your production and/or materials is subsidised by the state, in an attempt to outcompete western companies.
        blitzar 3y ago
        > subsidised by the state Like the $7b in subsidies each for ford and gm or the 100bn in free loans? Perhaps the 3bn in subsidies for tesla.
        mythhabit 3y ago
        Not saying USA is not doing it, and both Germany and France is doing it as well in the wake of Corona. But the amount is visible and until we get more transparency, we can only assume that China is doing it even more, because they are known to do that for strategically important sectors.
    - __alexs 3y ago
      Under the WTO definition of dumping it absolutely is. https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/adp_e/adp_e.htm https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/adp_e/adp_e.htm
  - mauvehaus 3y ago
    Dumping is more specific than that. What you're describing is simple price discrimination. Dumping additionally requires that the good be sold internationally for less than the cost of production.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
- bryanlarsen 3y ago
  AFAICT China isn't dumping. They're subsidizing internal consumption. A Chinese EV is ~$10,000 cheaper in China than it is outside of China. This is a massive advantage to Chinese vehicle manufacturers. They can scale up production using the internal market, and then use that scale to push down the external unsubsidised price. Pretty much exactly the same as the US. An American EV is about $10,000 cheaper in the US than elsewhere. $7500 because of the rebate, and the rest in shipping and other costs.
Rinzler89 3y ago
>I’m not in the car biz and I’ve seen this coming with clarity for over a decade. Me too. I was working in the German automotive industry back then, and left when I saw Tesla and China going full steam ahead on all things EV while German car makers were still pushing on diesel, and still do. >If I can see it then how is it that every car company hasn’t been preparing low cost EV offerings of their own? For the same reason Kodak invented the first digital camera and then shelved it to not compete with their film manufacturing business long enough for the Japanese to beat them at digital and kill them. Big corporations are fiefdoms with vested interest to maintain their status quo, not to push to company to self-disrupt itself, meaning they'll just wait and watch someone else eats their lunch.
- mcntsh 3y ago
  German cars are notorious for having unreliable electrical components. Now imagine the whole car is electric.
  - The_Colonel 3y ago
    German cars usually have (together with Japanese, I'd say) the best reputation in reliability. And ICE cars are full of electrical components, perhaps more so than the electric cars (since ICE cars are generally more complex than electric ones). So I struggle to reconcile your comment with what I hear ...
    - gorbypark 3y ago
      Reputation for reliability doesn't mean reliable! In most top 10 list of reliable car brands (as a whole) there might be one or two German brand in there (with Mini usually being the highest of the German brands).
    - dosethree 3y ago
      I've never heard of german cars being known for most reliable. And when they break they are the most expensive to fix. For example audis always had issues with oil leaking and in the US audi mechanics charge the most per hour and they are hard to work on. according to consumer reports, bmw is the most reliable at 9th most reliable automaker, audi and merc are way down
rsynnott 3y ago
> If I can see it then how is it that every car company hasn’t been preparing low cost EV offerings of their own? They... have, though? As far as I know, most of the European ones have at least one more or less ready to go. Generally not on the _extreme_ low end (ie not competing with the 10k BYD), but Renault, VW and Stellantis all have models in the 20-25k range pre-subsidy due to launch in the next year. The Dacia Spring (20k) has already been out for a bit, of course.
- Rinzler89 3y ago
  Dacia Spring is a Chinese designed and built car with a Dacia badge on it. It's really not great by EU standards[1]. The steel panels on it are incredibly thin and flimsy. It's more of an four wheel electric tuk-tuk with a shell, designed to reach a cheap EV price point. For some users that's good enough but for some it's a no-go. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrXgJD4tooI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrXgJD4tooI
mschuster91 3y ago
> If I can see it then how is it that every car company hasn’t been preparing low cost EV offerings of their own? Because they didn't believe that EVs or small cars were something that could be profitable, at least not compared to the high margin, cash cow SUVs. Instead, they did what they did the last few decades - invest into lobbying to keep emission standards relaxed. Only when Volkswagen and a fair few others got caught cheating, that business model went down the drain and suddenly they had to change. > A few are but most seem in denial. Ford is the only US one I’ve heard rumors about having something in the works. BMW is investing almost two billion dollars into its Spartanburg plant to produce electric versions of the X series SUVs [1]. > Tesla meanwhile spent tons of capital and time on ridiculous microniche products like the cybertruck. Indeed. The thing is a joke on wheels... it shows that unlike SpaceX with Gwynne Shotwell, Tesla (and Twitter) don't have an "Elon handler" responsible for pushing back. [1] https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/article/detail/T0422170EN/ready-for-the-electric-future:-groundbreaking-on-new-bmw-group-high-voltage-battery-assembly-factory-in-south-carolina-usa?language=en https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/article/detail/T042217...
- api 3y ago
  Tangent but: the ultimate "Elon handler" at SpaceX is not just Shotwell but NASA, the DOD, and their satellite customers. Space launch is not like cars or really most other products. Your customer is highly technical and highly informed and they absolutely will not launch on a rocket that doesn't meet certain design criteria and in many cases they will require the ability to review the rocket's actual design blueprints and software (with NDA in place). NASA and the DOD will demand this, full stop. If SpaceX didn't have someone like Shotwell pretty much running the show there's no chance they'd ever get a customer beyond the low end of the satellite launch market. They'd also have trouble getting the FAA to allow them to fly, and with good reason. A rocket is basically a bomb that explodes in one direction, and many of its failure modes involve it exploding in all directions. Elon's been great (at least in the past) at assembling teams, getting funding, and motivating people to do really hard shit. (Not sure how he'd fare today with his baggage... his brand has taken a hit.) He also knows enough about engineering to hire competent engineers. Beyond that I see little sign that he's actually good at managing or day to day operation and certainly seems no good at product design. This differs from Jobs who at least had killer intuition there. Jobs would have laughed the cybertruck out of the room.
panick21_ 3y ago
Because its not as easy as just saying "lets make low cost EV". That has to do with battery and supplychain. EV already need gigantic capital investment on it own. All these companies have massive debt, low margin, need to continue to make money on ICE.l, transition to EV. To also make a profital low cost EV is insanly hard. They are struggling to develop a profitable high cost EV. A lot of the supply chain is in China, so investing in that is pretty hard.
- acdha 3y ago
  It’s true that they need to invest more but that’s a self-inflicted problem: they have enormous resources and lavish government support available but they really want the high-margin light-truck era to continue and have been treating EVs as a fad they’ll support only if ICE buyers are willing to overpay as much as ICE SUV buyers have. We’re reading about Ford cancelling battery plants, not being unable to find funding. When Chevy cancelled the Bolt, it was their best selling EV - but not nearly as profitable as the luxury models they wanted people to buy.
  - panick21_ 3y ago
    Every Bolt they sold was losing them money. Like literally making significant negative money. Its simply impossible for them to scale up the Bolt as is. Their plan was to rebase the Bolt onto the Ultium platform, but with all the issues they had on that platform, they weren't able to do it. If it was on Ultium then maybe they could not lose money on it.
    - acdha 3y ago
      That’s a separate issue: the point was that there’s demand at normal price points, less so in the higher-end ranges they targeted. Most of the commonly cited reasons for the low 1-2% margins were things like battery plants where startup costs are high but will not be a problem when they resolve yield issues.
      - panick21_ 3y ago

helsinkiandrew 3y ago

I read (but unfortunately can't find source) that Chinese manufacturers are 2 to 3 years ahead in being able to ship solid state battery technology For example: https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/china-brand-hyper-use-solid-state-batteries-evs-2026 https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/china-brand-hyper-use... (archive: https://archive.ph/LlQV2 https://archive.ph/LlQV2) https://uk.motor1.com/news/715871/im-l6-ev-solid-state-battery-sale/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://uk.motor1.com/news/715871/im-l6-ev-solid-state-batte...

panick21_ 3y ago
Solid state is mostly a marketing term. There is no inherent reason a solid battery is better. Solid state isnt some magical pill for EV success.
- peutetre 3y ago
  With solid state batteries you can puncture them, cut them, and shoot them with a bullet. It's much harder to make them catch fire and they keep working: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9-cNNYb1Ik https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9-cNNYb1Ik https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZOubFHO1I3o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZOubFHO1I3o
  - mavhc 3y ago
    Same as LFP batteries then?
    - peutetre 3y ago
      No.
      - bryanlarsen 3y ago
        Sure LFP won't keep working after being shot, but is that a difference that matters? The important part is the "doesn't catch fire".

ho243i2434324 3y ago

[flagged]

mschuster91 3y ago
> The battery economics really doesn't seem to work. Huh what? Tesla hasn't been selling at a loss for years, in Q3/2022 they made a solid 15.000$ pure profit per car - that's what allowed them to cut prices without going into losses in the first place. [1] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-uses-its-profits-weapon-an-ev-price-war-2023-01-19/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-...
- ho243i2434324 3y ago
  I mean macro-economics in the long-run. As a niche, it's fine and profitable; but ICE market is just too massive, and replacing large parts of the supply-chain and transport-infrastructure will likely cause issues on the supply side. https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2023/01/24/researchers-warn-the-ev-transition-needs-too-much-nasty-lithium--thats-not-how-transitions-work/?sh=431dc95b49bf https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2023/01/24/resear...
  - panick21_ 3y ago
    Hydrogens issue as an order of magnitude worse. Batterie had 10 years of massive investment and an ever growing market share. The supply chain issues are being worked on. Hydrogen cars a statistically insignificant and have basically no growth. The supply chain has seen little investment and there is not even a prospect that any real investment will go into. Its the same old 'get governments to pay oil/car company to sell a fake future'.
    - ho243i2434324 3y ago
      The efficiency of Hydrolysis is definitely a big issue, but still, it's not a hard-supply issue like Lithium/Cobalt.

typeofhuman 3y ago

That's the "bloodbath" Trump was talking about. And China is going through Mexico to import their vehicles into the US.

tnel77 3y ago
The price of cars is pretty ridiculous so I’m at a point where I welcome some competition. I’d prefer to buy non-Chinese, but these companies need to remember how to make an affordable vehicle.
- grugagag 3y ago
  It would probably kill the whole US industry.
  - tnel77 3y ago
    Surely they could cut into their profits and innovate?
- choko 3y ago
  Id rather pay more and have no Chinese involvement. China is not your friend.
  - red-iron-pine 3y ago
    other large vehicle manufacturers aren't your friend, either.
  - tnel77 3y ago
    I don’t mind paying more for a non-Chinese vehicle, but I think some of the price gouging by US companies could calm down.
  - thehappypm 3y ago
    Competition is good.
- 3y ago

suoduandao3 3y ago

I visited China over the Christmas Holidays last year. Reliable and cheap sums up what I saw from electric vehicles at the time. The taxi I took also did a battery swap in the middle of our trip, which took maybe five minutes and was heartening to watch. I think Tesla is still the luxury brand even in China, and that can sustain a company for a long time, but I predict it'll lose more market share for a while.

sgt 3y ago
Elon Musk even says so himself that he believes Chinese EV's are good. His personal experience from a couple of years ago, and also as per his team feedback recently. Source: https://podcasts.apple.com/no/podcast/in-good-company-with-nicolai-tangen/id1614211565 https://podcasts.apple.com/no/podcast/in-good-company-with-n... (Episode from 9 Apr 2024 - interview with Elon Musk)

choko 3y ago

Anyone that says they won't buy a Tesla due to Elon's antics but will buy a Chinese EV is a hypocrite. China is a fascist state and no company does anything without party involvement.

chrsw 3y ago
I agree that sounds hypocritical but I don't see a lot of people saying that. I don't even know if I can buy cheap Chinese EVs in the US, or when I'll be able to. It's not really an option that's on the table as far as I can tell. I think the bottom line for many people is EVs are still not as cheap as ICE options and definitely not as convenient, yet. When that situation changes I don't know why most consumers would stick to ICE.
- alephnerd 3y ago
  > I don't even know if I can buy cheap Chinese EVs in the US The only one you can is the EX30, but even that's more pricy than a Tesla Model 3. The truly cheap EVs you see in Asia (eg. The lower end BYD, Zeekr, MGs) are aimed at developing markets, not developed. And yes, plenty of Eastern European members of the EU (the ones where the cheaper end EV makers are targeting) are still developing/emerging markets - Romania, Hungary, Poland, and Bulgaria still are developing (though might not be in 10-15 years). Higher end Chinese EVs like Polestar and Volvo (Volvo has been Geely for almost 2 decades now) are aimed at developed countries, in order to manage the brand perception.
  - ulfw 3y ago
    Chinese EV brands and models are available all over Europe and the rest of the free world. US is an exception. Many western brands are manufacturing in China and exporting globally (Tesla, Geely/Volvo/Polestar, BMW Mini, Mercedes smart, Renault etc. Hell even the Dacia EV is actually a Chinese car). Some of those are entering the US (Volvo, Polestar, Mini)
    - alephnerd 3y ago

sjducb 3y ago

I test drove a BYD seal recently. It was much better than the model 3. All of the marketing was around crash safety.

ta1243 3y ago

The adtech industry in the west has driven the normality of constantly connected devices. Now we'll have the chineese government constantly connected instead of just the billionaires. You won't be able to get a car which isn't connected, just like its increasingly hard to get a TV that isn't connected. The cultural acceptance of this has been driven from the trillions spent by advertising companies in double-dipping -- companies not content with making a product and selling it for a markup, they have to squeeze an extra $10 out of that $500 TV -- and that has massively weakened the security of society, both directly (Internet of Shit) and through expectations (IoT supply chains controlled by hostile agents)

barrenko 3y ago

Plenty of Europe's ports filled with chinese EVs nobody is buying.

mostlysimilar 3y ago
Source?
- barrenko 3y ago
  https://www.ft.com/content/496f3bfa-9f0c-4145-9024-188572a280fd https://www.ft.com/content/496f3bfa-9f0c-4145-9024-188572a28...

xtracto 3y ago

I was amazed at those "battery swap" stations that popped all over china for motorcycles. That's a great solution for electric cars: Install "battery swap" walls on each gas station, and make cars allowing said battery swap (if the car "floor" is full of batteries, make it so that it is split in "packs" that can be pulled from the side to be swapped)