6 ms·

I own a model 3 with FSD. One of the key realizations I had after a few months with it is that self-driving at the moment is like supervising a newbie teenager

by LASR 2y ago

I own a model 3 with FSD. One of the key realizations I had after a few months with it is that self-driving at the moment is like supervising a newbie teenager driving. You have to stay alert and watchful, but also don’t have the direct control. When you are teaching a new driver it’s worth it. Honestly, it’s a lot less work to just do it yourself. This is one of those engineering situations where the 0.0001% edge cases matter, and could lead to fatalities. I don’t know if any of the implementations are up to the mark. FSD isn’t.

mhh__ 2y ago
With an LLM in there (if that even) one wonders if each software version deployed to a driveless / level [can't remember] car should literally have to pass a driving test. I say this because in line with what you say about teenagers is that the driving test is about being safe-enough to not kill someone, not being a good driver.
al_borland 2y ago
Even with normal cruise control and adaptive cruise control, when there is a lot of traffic, it’s easier to turn it off and take control. All these features seem great when no one else is on the road, to give the driver a bit of a rolling break, but that’s about it.
- renewiltord 2y ago
  That's funny, I only ever use adaptive cruise when I'm in a lot of traffic on the highway. At slow speeds it's not going to do anything and I'm pretty much just going to follow the car in front at low speed. I use lane keeping the rest of the time and it really reduces fatigue.
  - ajross 2y ago
    Yeah, there is a lot of variation in interpretation here. I'm farther along the spectrum still: I'm on FSD essentially 100% of the time in highway environments now because I absolutely trust the car's attentiveness and precision more than my own. Think back on how many times you've started a lane change and aborted because there was a car there, how many times you've looked down to navigate and hit the rumble strip, how many times you've had to rely on ABS to avoid hitting the car you didn't notice stopping in front of you, etc... Not once in almost three years and 40k miles in my Model Y has it done something like this. That's not to say it's never going to, but 100%, for sure, it's better than I am.
    - danielheath 2y ago
      Jesus Christ. If _any_ of those things happen to you regularly, please do something about changing that before you kill someone.
      - ajross 2y ago
        There are two kinds of drivers: drivers who know they're fallible, and fallible drivers who don't. Maybe you're an outlier who doesn't make these mistakes, and if so I applaud your skill. But most likely you're just like the rest of us, and have the added handicap of self-censoring your mistakes as "someone else's fault". Data filtering is a hell of a drug, as it were.
        toasterlovin 2y ago
        I’ve had ABS activate like twice in my entire life. Agree with the person you’re responding to: if ABS activates regularly when you’re driving then you may not be a safe driver.
        cdchn 2y ago
        I think for this person FSD might actually be an improvement.
        ajross 2y ago
        Your inappropriate mockery notwithstanding, that was exactly my point. I'm happy you agree.
        cdchn 2y ago
        Yes, I do agree. The hope is that full-self-driving systems will help people who should really not be on the road, negligent drivers, the elderly, those with impaired capacity from drugs and alcohol, etc.
        2y ago
  - al_borland 2y ago
    My issue in traffic is that if someone gets between me and the car in front of me, the car hits the brakes to make some room. I’ve had it slow down from 50mph, from 75. It’s dangerous, if the person behind me isn’t paying attention, they could easily hit me. If I ever have it on in traffic my finger is on the switch to turn it off incase someone merges in front of me. Of course, I use the max follow distance, so I have time to react if something happens and the car doesn’t do its job. I know some people who use the closest distance, which I guess would solve the merge issue, but would stress me out and if something happened, I’d be screwed.
    - eastbound 2y ago
      And at slow speed in traffic jams, it plays accordion. When the car in front accelerates, it has a delay; when it decelerates, it has a delay… then it slams the breaks. If there’s one thing an automated system should be good at, it’s keeping a constant distance with the car in front, “constant” with the twist that it should be proportional to the speed.
    - mbreese 2y ago
      Not sure what kind of car you have, but that’s the way my wife’s car works too — aggressive braking to keep the gap. My Tesla is the only car I’ve used adaptive cruise control where it doesn’t freak out and brake when you get cut off. Instead, if the car that pulled in ahead of you is traveling at a higher speed, it just lets the gap grow naturally. Now, of course I’ve still had it brake at shadows on the road, so it’s not perfect, but sometimes it works like I’d expect.
      - al_borland 2y ago
        A VW GTI was where I had it happen a lot. I don’t have it anymore. I assume my new car works the same way, but after the VW I haven’t given it the chance. If someone merges while accelerating, the cruise control generally handled it ok. However, most of the time people merge, then speed up. During that first part, the car freaks out and slams on the brakes, and keeps on that course of action even as the car ahead speeds up. With the lead car speeding up, and mine going 50 when the new gap is correct, it ends up growing even bigger, so I then need to catch up. It makes me look like I can’t drive, lol.
  - inkyoto 2y ago
    I have only found one practical application for adaptive cruise control so far: when driving in tunnels where speed cameras strictly and vigorously enforce speed limits, hence 99% of the drivers behave and adaptive cruise control is safe to use. Outside the tunnels… other drivers' erratic behaviour makes adaptive cruise not very useful or too monotonous on long stretches of state and interstate highways to the point that it lulls [me] into a sleep.
- kelnos 2y ago
  I love my adaptive cruise during traffic; frankly I think that's where it provides the most value. Stop-and-go is the most annoying thing. Having the car do it for me is fantastic.
causality0 2y ago
Yeah I don't understand it either. They're features that seemed aimed directly at one customer: the guy who is already watching YouTube and texting while going down the interstate and just keeping a vague idea of where the lines and cars are.
Krasnol 2y ago
I never drove one of these, but I always wonder if we're already past the "way too old person behind the wheel"-point where I rather see those people in a car driven by a computer than having them in control. It becomes quite a discussion if a really horrible ancient happens here in Germany, but since this population group loves to go voting and Germany is a car nation, it dies down pretty fast when the topic of mandatory tests for elderly people come up. It's the same problem with those who just got the license, of course, too.
MBCook 2y ago
I have a Mach E and have used Blue Cruise. That’s not how I would put it. I don’t feel unsafe with it. It doesn’t feel like a new driver at all, I trust it to do its job. I haven’t used FSD but from what I’ve heard it sounds less trustworthy to me (mostly because it tries to do more in more situations, BC is very tightly controlled). But its job is to stay in the lane and keep a good speed even in traffic. When using BC your job just like less advanced lane centering + cruise control: maintain situational awareness for what’s comping up + what other cars are doing. Additionally I keep my hands on the wheel anyway to take over when needed even though BC is hands free. I do find it a benefit. But it’s “just” a lane keep + radar CC system that’s a bit more advanced. Just like every single other system on the market you can’t take your eyes off the road. Ford enforces it. If it was still active they couldn’t have been looking away for too long.
- 38 2y ago
  mach e slammed into a stopped car at full speed, killing the driver of the stopped car. if that doesn't give you pause I dont know what will.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
- mitchell209 2y ago
  It annoyingly hugs the right side of the lane for some reason, especially when you're activating BC. Once it goes far enough right it works well. There's a few spots on my 20 minute commute that it likes to disengage because they repainted lines and did a shitty job but that isn't strictly the car's fault.
  - MBCook 2y ago
    My car does that too, BC 1.0. Newer versions, 1.2 and up, are supposed to be far better. Even moving over a bit in the lane when next to a big truck. That may be 1.3. Everyone will be getting upgraded to 1.4. We’re just waiting for the OTA update. It’s overdue, but anyone who had followed BC so far knows that’s just par for the course. History for those unfamiliar: the Mach E was shipped before BlueCruise was ready. It took 9 months or so before there was an update available at the dealer for it. Eventually newer cars cane with 1.2. Older cars were promised 1.2 but for various reasons it got delayed and a recall issue took priority. Then they released 1.3 on new deliveries, and the promise became everyone gets 1.3. That got delayed a bit and they were ahead on 1.4 so Ford decided to just move everyone to 1.4 as it was done early. But they hit problems on the rollout beta test for existing vehicles. Between that and seeming to give priority to the recent updates to work with Tesla superchargers, 1.4 missed the promised date of Q1. It’ll come. And it’s supposed to be a very big improvement over 1.0 from those who have tested it. But Mach E owners who follow the forums know not reliable Ford software update dates are.
grecy 2y ago
> I don’t know if any of the implementations are up to the mark. FSD isn’t. It is very clearly called "Beta" software. You can agree or disagree if Tesla should be allowed to put that out there, but I don't think it should come as any surprise that software labelled as beta is not 100% flawless.
- MBCook 2y ago
  Gmail was labeled “beta” for like 15 years. It doesn’t mean anything. And if it did, so what? You’re dealing with people’s lives. No one will care what Greek letter they used to describe it.
  - grecy 2y ago
    So get angry at the regulators, they are allowing it.
    - eropple 2y ago
      It is, in fact, possible to have an ill opinion of multiple bad actors in a system. "Don't hate the player, hate the game" elides the choice to not play.
    - MBCook 2y ago
      I am. I don’t think ADAS system should just be able to be blindly unleashed on the roads without some sort of standard testing for minimum safety/non dangerousness. But above I was just arguing slapping a word on the end doesn’t release you from responsibility.
    - FireBeyond 2y ago
      Listening to you, any flaws or incidents involving FSD are anyone's fault but Tesla's. People who don't understand 'beta', regulators, and so on. Mind you, that's Tesla's belief too.
- teddyfrozevelt 2y ago
  Tesla does not label it as beta anymore. https://insideevs.com/news/714524/tesla-fsd-beta-supervised-name/ https://insideevs.com/news/714524/tesla-fsd-beta-supervised-...
ximeng 2y ago
The latest version 12 FSD beta seems significantly better, to the extent that experience with previous versions is less relevant. There's no real reason to expect these systems to get worse, they'll only improve. Today's videos versus those of even just a year or two ago shows huge progress. Not better than doing yourself today in general, but it will be in more and more situations. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpoXr_z_6a4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpoXr_z_6a4 is illustrative of the current level of ability. A good example where the self-driving compares favorably with poor human driving is at 10:15 in the video. There are some pretty major gaps (for example, limited ability to reverse and read signs), but I wouldn't bet on them not being resolved in the next five years.
- kid64 2y ago
  [flagged]
- wlesieutre 2y ago
  Will they only improve? Or will they get better at most things while old previously handled edge cases sneak back in without warning? There are so many situations that it needs to handle 100% correctly.
  - zaptrem 2y ago
    Iirc Tesla has a giant internal validation sets of edge-case-related disengagements they test against using a simulator whenever they’re gonna deploy a new version.
    - wlesieutre 2y ago
      That’s good to hear. It’s a huge problem space, and seems like it’d be rather difficult to test completely.
- NegativeK 2y ago
  I've tried FSD a handful of times during this month's beta and, while it's way better than when I tried it for a month a while back, it's at the point where I can very much see why the NTSB/etc are concerned about people trusting it too much. It's generally really impressive and then suddenly very wrong. As in, it navigated a four-way stop with a in the crosswalk flawlessly. And then, later, it was lining up for a left turn into a parking lot and decided that the oncoming truck wasn't relevant, so it spun the steering wheel very quickly and lurched forward until I mashed the brake. I'm very hopeful that we can replace the mistake-prone meatbags that drive cars now, but I'm incredibly concerned with people on other forums saying that they trust it completely.
phkahler 2y ago
>> I don’t know if any of the implementations are up to the mark. FSD isn’t. Having talked to engineers in the industry over the years, I feel confident to say they are not. It's a problem where the base functionality - following a well marked lane - is actually f-ing easy, but every nonideality beyond that gets harder and harder. So people look at the base case and get all impressed. It really takes AGI to do properly. Management looks at each failure as if "just one more fix" is all they need.
- buildbot 2y ago
  I went to a conference focused on self driving cars back in 2019 - even back then, the best talk was from some professor in Florid, who's main point was that you probably don't have an alligator crossing the road in your training data. The point being, you really, really, actually do need nearly an AGI to drive safely. The entire world is out there!
  - ximeng 2y ago
    Not alligators, but FSD handling family of deer in the road here: https://youtu.be/fpoXr_z_6a4?t=636 https://youtu.be/fpoXr_z_6a4?t=636
  - nunez 2y ago
    Tesla probably does!
BuckRogers 2y ago
This is why I consider adaptive cruise to be close enough to FSD. Steadying the wheel is the easy part, I just want the speed taken care of as that’s the stressful part for me. That said I’ve only had rentals. I drive a 2005 Tacona that doesn’t even have cruise control.

by LASR 2y ago

mhh__ 2y ago

With an LLM in there (if that even) one wonders if each software version deployed to a driveless / level [can't remember] car should literally have to pass a driving test. I say this because in line with what you say about teenagers is that the driving test is about being safe-enough to not kill someone, not being a good driver.

al_borland 2y ago

Even with normal cruise control and adaptive cruise control, when there is a lot of traffic, it’s easier to turn it off and take control. All these features seem great when no one else is on the road, to give the driver a bit of a rolling break, but that’s about it.

renewiltord 2y ago
That's funny, I only ever use adaptive cruise when I'm in a lot of traffic on the highway. At slow speeds it's not going to do anything and I'm pretty much just going to follow the car in front at low speed. I use lane keeping the rest of the time and it really reduces fatigue.
- ajross 2y ago
  Yeah, there is a lot of variation in interpretation here. I'm farther along the spectrum still: I'm on FSD essentially 100% of the time in highway environments now because I absolutely trust the car's attentiveness and precision more than my own. Think back on how many times you've started a lane change and aborted because there was a car there, how many times you've looked down to navigate and hit the rumble strip, how many times you've had to rely on ABS to avoid hitting the car you didn't notice stopping in front of you, etc... Not once in almost three years and 40k miles in my Model Y has it done something like this. That's not to say it's never going to, but 100%, for sure, it's better than I am.
  - danielheath 2y ago
    Jesus Christ. If _any_ of those things happen to you regularly, please do something about changing that before you kill someone.
    - ajross 2y ago
      There are two kinds of drivers: drivers who know they're fallible, and fallible drivers who don't. Maybe you're an outlier who doesn't make these mistakes, and if so I applaud your skill. But most likely you're just like the rest of us, and have the added handicap of self-censoring your mistakes as "someone else's fault". Data filtering is a hell of a drug, as it were.
      - toasterlovin 2y ago
        I’ve had ABS activate like twice in my entire life. Agree with the person you’re responding to: if ABS activates regularly when you’re driving then you may not be a safe driver.
        cdchn 2y ago
        I think for this person FSD might actually be an improvement.
        ajross 2y ago
        Your inappropriate mockery notwithstanding, that was exactly my point. I'm happy you agree.
        cdchn 2y ago
        Yes, I do agree. The hope is that full-self-driving systems will help people who should really not be on the road, negligent drivers, the elderly, those with impaired capacity from drugs and alcohol, etc.
        2y ago
- al_borland 2y ago
  My issue in traffic is that if someone gets between me and the car in front of me, the car hits the brakes to make some room. I’ve had it slow down from 50mph, from 75. It’s dangerous, if the person behind me isn’t paying attention, they could easily hit me. If I ever have it on in traffic my finger is on the switch to turn it off incase someone merges in front of me. Of course, I use the max follow distance, so I have time to react if something happens and the car doesn’t do its job. I know some people who use the closest distance, which I guess would solve the merge issue, but would stress me out and if something happened, I’d be screwed.
  - eastbound 2y ago
    And at slow speed in traffic jams, it plays accordion. When the car in front accelerates, it has a delay; when it decelerates, it has a delay… then it slams the breaks. If there’s one thing an automated system should be good at, it’s keeping a constant distance with the car in front, “constant” with the twist that it should be proportional to the speed.
  - mbreese 2y ago
    Not sure what kind of car you have, but that’s the way my wife’s car works too — aggressive braking to keep the gap. My Tesla is the only car I’ve used adaptive cruise control where it doesn’t freak out and brake when you get cut off. Instead, if the car that pulled in ahead of you is traveling at a higher speed, it just lets the gap grow naturally. Now, of course I’ve still had it brake at shadows on the road, so it’s not perfect, but sometimes it works like I’d expect.
    - al_borland 2y ago
      A VW GTI was where I had it happen a lot. I don’t have it anymore. I assume my new car works the same way, but after the VW I haven’t given it the chance. If someone merges while accelerating, the cruise control generally handled it ok. However, most of the time people merge, then speed up. During that first part, the car freaks out and slams on the brakes, and keeps on that course of action even as the car ahead speeds up. With the lead car speeding up, and mine going 50 when the new gap is correct, it ends up growing even bigger, so I then need to catch up. It makes me look like I can’t drive, lol.
- inkyoto 2y ago
  I have only found one practical application for adaptive cruise control so far: when driving in tunnels where speed cameras strictly and vigorously enforce speed limits, hence 99% of the drivers behave and adaptive cruise control is safe to use. Outside the tunnels… other drivers' erratic behaviour makes adaptive cruise not very useful or too monotonous on long stretches of state and interstate highways to the point that it lulls [me] into a sleep.
kelnos 2y ago
I love my adaptive cruise during traffic; frankly I think that's where it provides the most value. Stop-and-go is the most annoying thing. Having the car do it for me is fantastic.

causality0 2y ago

Yeah I don't understand it either. They're features that seemed aimed directly at one customer: the guy who is already watching YouTube and texting while going down the interstate and just keeping a vague idea of where the lines and cars are.

Krasnol 2y ago

I never drove one of these, but I always wonder if we're already past the "way too old person behind the wheel"-point where I rather see those people in a car driven by a computer than having them in control. It becomes quite a discussion if a really horrible ancient happens here in Germany, but since this population group loves to go voting and Germany is a car nation, it dies down pretty fast when the topic of mandatory tests for elderly people come up. It's the same problem with those who just got the license, of course, too.

MBCook 2y ago

I have a Mach E and have used Blue Cruise. That’s not how I would put it. I don’t feel unsafe with it. It doesn’t feel like a new driver at all, I trust it to do its job. I haven’t used FSD but from what I’ve heard it sounds less trustworthy to me (mostly because it tries to do more in more situations, BC is very tightly controlled). But its job is to stay in the lane and keep a good speed even in traffic. When using BC your job just like less advanced lane centering + cruise control: maintain situational awareness for what’s comping up + what other cars are doing. Additionally I keep my hands on the wheel anyway to take over when needed even though BC is hands free. I do find it a benefit. But it’s “just” a lane keep + radar CC system that’s a bit more advanced. Just like every single other system on the market you can’t take your eyes off the road. Ford enforces it. If it was still active they couldn’t have been looking away for too long.

38 2y ago
mach e slammed into a stopped car at full speed, killing the driver of the stopped car. if that doesn't give you pause I dont know what will.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
mitchell209 2y ago
It annoyingly hugs the right side of the lane for some reason, especially when you're activating BC. Once it goes far enough right it works well. There's a few spots on my 20 minute commute that it likes to disengage because they repainted lines and did a shitty job but that isn't strictly the car's fault.
- MBCook 2y ago
  My car does that too, BC 1.0. Newer versions, 1.2 and up, are supposed to be far better. Even moving over a bit in the lane when next to a big truck. That may be 1.3. Everyone will be getting upgraded to 1.4. We’re just waiting for the OTA update. It’s overdue, but anyone who had followed BC so far knows that’s just par for the course. History for those unfamiliar: the Mach E was shipped before BlueCruise was ready. It took 9 months or so before there was an update available at the dealer for it. Eventually newer cars cane with 1.2. Older cars were promised 1.2 but for various reasons it got delayed and a recall issue took priority. Then they released 1.3 on new deliveries, and the promise became everyone gets 1.3. That got delayed a bit and they were ahead on 1.4 so Ford decided to just move everyone to 1.4 as it was done early. But they hit problems on the rollout beta test for existing vehicles. Between that and seeming to give priority to the recent updates to work with Tesla superchargers, 1.4 missed the promised date of Q1. It’ll come. And it’s supposed to be a very big improvement over 1.0 from those who have tested it. But Mach E owners who follow the forums know not reliable Ford software update dates are.

grecy 2y ago

> I don’t know if any of the implementations are up to the mark. FSD isn’t. It is very clearly called "Beta" software. You can agree or disagree if Tesla should be allowed to put that out there, but I don't think it should come as any surprise that software labelled as beta is not 100% flawless.

MBCook 2y ago
Gmail was labeled “beta” for like 15 years. It doesn’t mean anything. And if it did, so what? You’re dealing with people’s lives. No one will care what Greek letter they used to describe it.
- grecy 2y ago
  So get angry at the regulators, they are allowing it.
  - eropple 2y ago
    It is, in fact, possible to have an ill opinion of multiple bad actors in a system. "Don't hate the player, hate the game" elides the choice to not play.
  - MBCook 2y ago
    I am. I don’t think ADAS system should just be able to be blindly unleashed on the roads without some sort of standard testing for minimum safety/non dangerousness. But above I was just arguing slapping a word on the end doesn’t release you from responsibility.
  - FireBeyond 2y ago
    Listening to you, any flaws or incidents involving FSD are anyone's fault but Tesla's. People who don't understand 'beta', regulators, and so on. Mind you, that's Tesla's belief too.
teddyfrozevelt 2y ago
Tesla does not label it as beta anymore. https://insideevs.com/news/714524/tesla-fsd-beta-supervised-name/ https://insideevs.com/news/714524/tesla-fsd-beta-supervised-...

ximeng 2y ago

The latest version 12 FSD beta seems significantly better, to the extent that experience with previous versions is less relevant. There's no real reason to expect these systems to get worse, they'll only improve. Today's videos versus those of even just a year or two ago shows huge progress. Not better than doing yourself today in general, but it will be in more and more situations. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpoXr_z_6a4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpoXr_z_6a4 is illustrative of the current level of ability. A good example where the self-driving compares favorably with poor human driving is at 10:15 in the video. There are some pretty major gaps (for example, limited ability to reverse and read signs), but I wouldn't bet on them not being resolved in the next five years.

kid64 2y ago
[flagged]
wlesieutre 2y ago
Will they only improve? Or will they get better at most things while old previously handled edge cases sneak back in without warning? There are so many situations that it needs to handle 100% correctly.
- zaptrem 2y ago
  Iirc Tesla has a giant internal validation sets of edge-case-related disengagements they test against using a simulator whenever they’re gonna deploy a new version.
  - wlesieutre 2y ago
    That’s good to hear. It’s a huge problem space, and seems like it’d be rather difficult to test completely.
NegativeK 2y ago
I've tried FSD a handful of times during this month's beta and, while it's way better than when I tried it for a month a while back, it's at the point where I can very much see why the NTSB/etc are concerned about people trusting it too much. It's generally really impressive and then suddenly very wrong. As in, it navigated a four-way stop with a in the crosswalk flawlessly. And then, later, it was lining up for a left turn into a parking lot and decided that the oncoming truck wasn't relevant, so it spun the steering wheel very quickly and lurched forward until I mashed the brake. I'm very hopeful that we can replace the mistake-prone meatbags that drive cars now, but I'm incredibly concerned with people on other forums saying that they trust it completely.

phkahler 2y ago

>> I don’t know if any of the implementations are up to the mark. FSD isn’t. Having talked to engineers in the industry over the years, I feel confident to say they are not. It's a problem where the base functionality - following a well marked lane - is actually f-ing easy, but every nonideality beyond that gets harder and harder. So people look at the base case and get all impressed. It really takes AGI to do properly. Management looks at each failure as if "just one more fix" is all they need.

buildbot 2y ago
I went to a conference focused on self driving cars back in 2019 - even back then, the best talk was from some professor in Florid, who's main point was that you probably don't have an alligator crossing the road in your training data. The point being, you really, really, actually do need nearly an AGI to drive safely. The entire world is out there!
- ximeng 2y ago
  Not alligators, but FSD handling family of deer in the road here: https://youtu.be/fpoXr_z_6a4?t=636 https://youtu.be/fpoXr_z_6a4?t=636
- nunez 2y ago
  Tesla probably does!

BuckRogers 2y ago

This is why I consider adaptive cruise to be close enough to FSD. Steadying the wheel is the easy part, I just want the speed taken care of as that’s the stressful part for me. That said I’ve only had rentals. I drive a 2005 Tacona that doesn’t even have cruise control.