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Iran said to begin attack on Israel, launching drones
- mhb 3y agoHow can drones that take hours to arrive be a threat?
- plmpsu 3y agoIn contrast to ballistic missiles, you don't know where drones are heading.
- xenospn 3y agoGPS has been jammed in Israel for a while, not sure they can hit anything meaningful
- ThinkBeat 3y agoAll the different services then? Or just the American one?
- xenospn 3y agoWhatever enemy drones use, I’m guessing
- rany_ 3y agoIsn't that scarier? They'll need to bomb everything and anything to damage their target. They can't be precise/surgical about it.
- cwillu 3y agoThe warheads available to the craft in the first wave are basically large hand grenades. It's bad, I'm not suggesting otherwise, but it's not exactly carpet bombing either.
- azlev 3y agoVery unlikely that Iran uses GPS.
- gizmo686 3y agoGPS isn't the only way to navigate. Given how small Israel is, inertial navigation is probably good enough to cover the last leg of the trip. Even without that, they could still rely on cameras and old fashion navigation.
- kadoban 3y agoWhy can't they be? If you can't stop it, it's just a delayed threat.
- jl6 3y agoCould be small, hard to track, coming in unknown numbers and unknown times. Maybe most get shot down but some get through.
- ysofunny 3y agoone way, which is probably not what you're looking for and which I'm sure won't be a popular answer but I'll say it anyways in a false flag operation drones which take hours to arrive can be a threat
- cwillu 3y agoAs well as what other commenters have already said, faster elements are likely to be launched later to arrive at the same time.
- topspin 3y agoIt's about 1000 km from the western border of Iran to Tel Aviv. A Shahed 136 cruises around 185 km/h. Roughly 5.5 hours. Now, we can't know yet exactly what sort of drones Iran is using here, or exactly from where they we launched, so there are large error bars. But that's where "hours" comes from.
- mhb 3y agoRight. I'm just saying it's plenty of time for a fighter jet to see and intercept a drone.
- cwillu 3y agoHow many drones though? There's already reports of a second wave, and if they're all timed to cross into israeli airspace at the same time… This may also be cover for an attack from a different direction.
- OhNoNotAgain_99 3y ago[dead]
- topspin 3y agoThat's not an good tactic for a number of reasons. The attack involved a lot of drones. Hundreds. Dealing with hundreds of drones with manned fighter aircraft is dubious and possibly a terrible mistake: committing and exposing high value assets for what is, militarily, scutwork. Fighters don't carry enough gun ammo for the purpose, because ammo is heavy and the guns fire it very rapidly: typically there is only a few seconds of gun ammo capacity in a fighter. Air to air missiles are too precious to use on these targets: they're needed to defend against high value threats and can't be wasted on these crummy, militarized model aircraft from Iran. Also, these drones fly at relatively low altitude, so defending fighters must operate at low altitude and low speed over foreign territory, which is problematic for many reasons. Finally, the drones aren't easy to find because they aren't great radar targets, being small, low altitude, and mostly made of lightweight composites: it is unlikely they can all be detected and engaged quickly enough. For all of these reasons and others, manned aircraft are poor counter for this sort of attack. Despite this fighter aircraft were used. It was reported that the US, the RAF and the IAF all used manned aircraft to bring down some of these drones. But as you know, many still reached Israel. There, cost effective ground defense did most of the work.
- ein0p 3y agoThey fly low and not in a straight line. Low radar and IR visibility too. IOW you have to be directly in its path to have a chance to shoot it down and because of muted IR signature (no jet), your MANPADS will most likely fly right past it even if you are near. But most of these are probably just decoys. The main strike will be timed to arrive when Israeli AD is depleted by them.
- belter 3y agoThe drones are to overwhelm the defense, news just reported cruise missiles have been launched also. This time the Ayatollahs have pushed it too far as the most logical retaliation will be to go back directly at the leadership....
- cwillu 3y ago“Iran’s defense minister has issued a statement warning neighboring countries that any of them that open their airspace to Israel in order to intercept the drones will be targeted” Indeed, they do seem to be painting a target on their heads.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- bluefishinit 3y agoThis is in retaliation for Israel bombing the Iranian embassy in Damascus: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_bombing_of_the_Iranian_embassy_in_Damascus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_bombing_of_the_Iranian...
- mhb 3y agoAnd what was that in retaliation for?
- belter 3y ago[flagged]
- belter 3y ago"Iranian support for Hamas" - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_support_for_Hamas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_support_for_Hamas
- hnfong 3y agoThanks for the link, I read every source cited by the wikipedia page, and so far it's been a bunch of uncorroborated claims, and in particular no official confirmation -- https://archive.is/2aWzN https://archive.is/2aWzN - > U.S. and Israeli officials said they have no firm evidence so far that Iran authorized or directly coordinated the attack that killed more than 900 Israelis and wounded thousands. https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-fighters-trained-in-iran-before-oct-7-attacks-e2a8dbb9 https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-fighters-trained... > U.S. officials said Iran has regularly trained militants in Iran and elsewhere, but they have no indications of a mass training right before the attack. U.S. officials and the people familiar with the intelligence said they had no information to suggest Iran conducted training specifically to prepare for the events of Oct. 7. I'm sure this reserved stance from officials might have something to do with the US not wanting to get dragged into opposition with yet another potential nuclear power, but still. (In case you're wondering, I suspect your choice of word "Orc" might have something to do with the downvote as well...)
- bratao 3y agoThis is sad. I hope that this is not the beginning of a (much larger) escalation cycle. Multiple reports says that when those drones get near, Iran will launch multiple Ballistic and Cruise missile that are much faster, with the objective of saturating Israel Defenses.
- instagib 3y ago“the Iranian drones, which are several hours away, carry a 20-kilogram warhead, which “the simplest bomb shelter” can protect against, and says he estimates that the drones are likely headed only to military targets.”
- cwillu 3y agoThat's only the first wave though; a coordinated attack will have the faster moving and more deadly munitions launched much later to arrive with the earlier waves, taking advantage of any distraction and disruption caused by the easier targets.
- hanniabu 3y ago[flagged]
- catlover76 3y ago[dead]
- dadjoker 3y ago[flagged]
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- edanm 3y ago> with the objective of saturating Israel Defenses. It seems very likely that Iran is not trying to cause much actual harm. It seems fairly obvious that they are trying to do just enough to be seen doing something against Israel, but not enough to provoke a real retaliation. No idea if they've skirted that line properly - it's "up to Israel" now in how to respond.
- instagib 3y agoJordan temporarily closes airspace From CNN's Hamdi Alkhshali and Caroline Faraj The Jordanian Civil Aviation Regulatory Authority announced Saturday the country's airspace will be temporarily closed to all incoming, departing, and transiting aircraft, state news Petra reported, as neighboring Israel remains on high alert for an Iranian strike.
- mhb 3y agoSo the drones aren't going through Jordan?
- edanm 3y agoI think they partially are. Jordan shot down some of the drones on the way.
- instagib 3y agoThere’s Lebanon and Iraq that just closed their airspace too. I don’t know how the countries the drones, fighters, or missiles flying through or over will respond. Israel wants to intercept before arrival to airspace and Iran said anyone who opens airspace will “face a decisive response”.
- mhb 3y agoIt appears that Israel will use Jordanian and Syrian airspace "thanks to an aerial umbrella set up by the US". https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israel-has-reportedly-begun-intercepting-iranian-drones-over-jordan-and-syria/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israel-has-repo...
- hanniabu 3y agoWhy is this flagged?
- cwillu 3y agoFlagging is a user action here, not an admin action; mostly just means that there's enough people here who think it's off-topic; possible motivations for doing so are pretty transparent.
- submeta 3y ago[flagged]
- cwillu 3y agoWhy would israeli lobbyists flag a post about an attack on israel?
- submeta 3y agoSo that no one explains why Iran retaliates for the Israeli attack on the consulate in Syria, where a dozen Iranians were killed.
- cwillu 3y agoThen why is the top comment thread currently a discussion of exactly that retaliation? The lobbyists just gave up on their flagging campaign? *edit: sorry, second from the top currently.
- submeta 3y ago[flagged]
- cwillu 3y ago“Meanwhile, Iran’s defense minister has issued a statement warning neighboring countries that any of them that open their airspace to Israel in order to intercept the drones will be targeted”
- GoodJokes 3y ago[dead]
- noobermin 3y agoThis is a serious incident and requires serious attention, it's a shame this thread is nothing but an ideological cesspool.
- rvz 3y agoAgreed, it is just as serious as the war in Ukraine.
- ranyume 3y agoSomehow many people already "took a side" to defend online as fanatics. This is a product of an hyperconnected world that doesn't allow people to stop and think deeply. The internet's an ever-changing flow of emotions and memes.
- Dem_Boys 3y agoCan someone provide the unbiased game theory strategy on what happens next? And what will this conflict look like in 12 months?
- HDThoreaun 3y agoBasically someone has to blink. My estimation is that the Israeli government has a lot more latitude since the Iranian governemnt is sort of fueled by this hatred of Israel and the US so they really cant be seen to back down. Luckily this attack wasnt really that bad and to me signifies that Iran doesnt want to escalate so I think likely Israel blinks now with the excuse of focusing on Gaza.
- tguvot 3y agoattack was really that bad, it's just israeli air defenses were better
- HDThoreaun 3y agoIran knew that though, which was the point, and does make the attack not that bad. Maybe Im just being hopeful though but it really does seem like Iran did what they could to escalate as little as they realistically could and Israelis will respect that.
- tguvot 3y agoit's like if you wearing a bullet proof vest, i shot you. fail to kill. and my defense for attempted murder "he knew it was going to happen and had vest on. it's not that bad after all"
- mhb 3y agoAnd also you get charged hundreds of millions of dollars for using the vest.
- HDThoreaun 3y ago
- mondayp 3y agoIran's recent missile and drone strike on Israel seems largely symbolic, likely a response to internal pressures after Israel's airstrike on their Damascus facility. This controlled retaliation shows Iran's attempt to manage national pride without escalating to full-scale war. A strategic move more about sending a message than causing real damage.
- temp84858696945 3y agoI'm sorry, but 331 drones and missiles, including 110 ballistic missiles is not a symbolic gesture. Those missiles and drones could have caused a lot of death and a lot of damage if the defense was any less then it was. Also, they did cause a lot of "damage" in terms of expended defense capabilities.