7 ms·

It's depressing how quickly the move has been from thriving Republic to downfall with very little actual Empire in the middle. The Romans at least got to enjoy

by dsq 3y ago

It's depressing how quickly the move has been from thriving Republic to downfall with very little actual Empire in the middle. The Romans at least got to enjoy a couple hundred years of wine, revelry and decadence before things broke down completely.

bbsimonbb 3y ago
This is worth meditating! The American empire, like the British before it and the other european while we're at it, are flashes in the pan compared to the Romans, the Byzantines, the Ottomans. It could be that hypocrisy, racism and just wanting the oil/diamonds/gold/consumers is not a formula for lasting success.
pbhjpbhj 3y ago
Depressing, perhaps, if you're part of the nobility. Heartening, perhaps, of you're one of the workers building the palaces of revelry but never getting to enjoy them. Essentially, society is highly inequitable, instability is to be expected and is probably only a negative if you're living it up. If you're part of the higher classes gaining rent -- in any form -- from others needs then you'd probably want this 'empire' to live for ever. Under it all lies greed, and over-population.
- lupusreal 3y ago
  If you think America's administrative competency crisis will make things better for workers, I'd like some of what you're smoking.
- OfficeChad 3y ago
  [dead]
- FredPret 3y ago
  Where do people get these class warfare talking points? Is there a new wave of teenagers discovering Das Kapital and then saying stuff like this online?
  - pbhjpbhj 3y ago
    Lol, by living in the World for more decades than a teenager. Did you have a point to make?
  - dsq 3y ago
    I doubt one in a hundred have actually read any part of the original sources. They get what they know from fifteen second videos. This is not their fault, however. Reading long form is becoming a specialized skill.
  - elzbardico 3y ago
    [flagged]
    - FredPret 3y ago
      a) address the argument, not the person b) spreading class divisions is bad, and spreading generational divisions is worse, because it splits up society rather than unify us. So stop it. c) I’m a millennial
  - JackMorgan 3y ago
    We used to have strong unions that built a strong middle class. Now everyone's out for themselves and real wages are 1/3rd what they were for our grandparents. We have record numbers of the upper class, and fewer middle class each year. A lot of people want a middle class life and are seeing the connection between strong unified bargaining and their chances to become middle class.
    - senordevnyc 3y ago
      [dead]
    - willcipriano 3y ago
      Once you get a step further than that you'll realize that unions are another mechanism used to control labor[0] and that federal reserve policy on down is designed explicitly to suppress wages[1] so really the only solution is to make politicians fear the people again. [0]https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-signs-bill-block-us-railroad-strike-2022-12-02/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-signs-bill-block-us-r... (you aren't allowed to strike beacuse it will cost people money) [1-1]eg. 2% inflation target was originally suggested as it allowed employers to not give raises and lower their employee expenses over time [1-2]eg. interest rates were only raised once wages started ticking upward after decades of stagnation and decline, inflation in every other area of the marketplace wasn't a concern and you were labeled some sort of "inflation nut" if you mentioned it [1-3] now consider trade tariffs that encourage firms to offshore, lack of immigration enforcement creating a unlimited supply of low skill labor, use of below minimum wage prison labor to dilute the power of workers not in prison, welfare programs that subsidize low wage workers who otherwise wouldn't be able to afford working for a employer and you start to think this isn't just a happy accident for the capital class that the world is arranged in this very specific way benefitting them.
hayst4ck 3y ago
Apparently in 1971 the Bretton-Woods agreement[1] was "suspended" and America went off the gold standard. Because the US dollar became both a fiat currency[2] and a reserve currency[3], it meant that we could print as much money as we like. Printing money directly fuels corruption and income inequality. Rather than reconciling bad decisions and balancing a budget, you just print more money. Financialization[4], a force which frequently gets referenced in Boeing threads, is just another consequence of poor monetary policy, as is decline of Rule of Law[5]. Ray Dalio's Principles for a Changing World Order is the best explanation I've seen for the general state of America and its clear decline (45m): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8 [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system [2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_money https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_money [3]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_currency https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_currency [4]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financialization https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financialization [5]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_law
- tpm 3y ago
  There is plenty of corruption and income inequality regardless of money printing velocity. What would be the causal link between them? There was huge corruption in former Eastern/Soviet Block countries where prices were more or less stable. There was huge inequality in gold-standard feudalism.
  - hayst4ck 3y ago
    Ray Dalio's video explicitly explains the causal link between printing money and corruption. Printing money (as a fiat reserve currency) implies the decline of rule of law and therefore corruption, but corruption does not imply that money was printed, nor does the lack of printing money imply low corruption.
    - tpm 3y ago
      > "corruption does not imply that money was printed, nor does the lack of printing money imply low corruption." If corruption is independent of money printing, "Printing money directly fuels corruption" is not a true statement.
f6v 3y ago
> The Romans at least got to enjoy a couple hundred years of wine, revelry and decadence before things broke down completely. I’ve been enjoying The History of Rome podcast. It seems like the most consistent thing was civil wars which were followed by purges.
- mFixman 3y ago
  Same here. I'm currently listening around the final years of the Flavian dynasty and I'm wondering when these "couple hundred years of wine, revelry and decadence [in the post-Augustian Empire]" are supposed to arrive.
- dsq 3y ago
  From what I've read, the best years were during the "Five Good Emperors" period, so about a century, but even during the civil unrest periods things were OK if you stayed in your villa with your slaves and vineyards (OK relative to the poor, of course).
  - baobabKoodaa 3y ago
    Getting really strong "why dont they just eat cake" vibes from this post
    - robertlagrant 3y ago
      This phraseology is still just barely disguised insinuation. Insinuation bad. Make a real, good faith point.
      - baobabKoodaa 3y ago
        I was trying to make a joke, not a point. I guess I missed the mark.
  - rsynnott 3y ago
    > but even during the civil unrest periods things were OK if you stayed in your villa with your slaves and vineyards Well, I mean, this is if you happened to be very rich. Also, of course, for quite a bit of the period it put you in the firing line for proscription, and other Rich Roman Hazards. Particularly after the end of the Republic, the Roman Empire tended to be a fairly hazardous place for rich people; odds were good that you'd end up, at least passively, on the Wrong Side at some point.
passwordoops 3y ago
I highly recommend "The Fourth Turning is Here" by Neil Howe. According to the generational theory he co-developed (1): "The theory states that a crisis recurs in American history after every fourth generation which is followed by a recovery (high). During this recovery, institutions and communitarian values are strong. Ultimately, succeeding generational archetypes attack and weaken institutions in the name of autonomy and individualism, which eventually creates a tumultuous political environment that ripens conditions for another crisis" We're in a crisis period now. In all his books have provided the best explanation for the highs and lows in American society If you can't get to the book, just look him up in any podcast or YouTube. But really the books are where the really detailed, convincing evidence lives. (1) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generat...
- resolutebat 3y ago
  So the previous crises were the Civil War and the Great Depression/WW2? If so, our current crisis is barely getting started.
  - passwordoops 3y ago
    Crises culminating in wars going back to the 1400s, but yes, according to the theory this crisis period was triggered by the crash in 2008 and will likely climax sometime between 2028-2035. So this decade's gonna suck, will probably involve a war (civil or great power). But I err on the side that a conflict will leave the country stronger as happened in the past (no guarantee, especially if we lose a great power conflict) and America will be a more egalitarian, prosperous place by the 2040s. Thus the cycle will begin anew and the country will suck again circa 2115
    - lobsterthief 3y ago
      It’s also quite possible none of that happens ;) We’re naturally trained to find patterns in things.
fmbb 3y ago
> The Romans at least got to enjoy a couple hundred years of wine, revelry and decadence before things broke down completely. Which Romans? I’m fairly sure a lot of powerful Americans have enjoyed a couple hundred years of good wine and some decadence.
- robertlagrant 3y ago
  Almost everyone now can afford wine and some decadance, from a Roman standard. Roman decadence was grapes and wine and meats and sex. Far more people now have access to far better things than the Romans ever experienced.
  - elzbardico 3y ago
    wine, meats and sex? What could possibly be better than that?
    - robertlagrant 3y ago
      I'm not saying it could :) I'm just commenting on the "powerful Americans" line, above. I.e. what they called decadent we call normal, in no small part due to Americans who grew powerful (or rather, rich) by delivering increased value to ordinary people.
ak_111 3y ago
If you are part of the military industrial complex or the neocon establishment clique then the last three decades (since the start of the unipolar moment) have been extremely enjoyable and decadent as you get a free pass to milk the American empire. You get lauded by the media as a hero for bombing arabs from the sky with zero possibility of defeat (and if the devastating horror inflected on the civilian population is revealed you get to throw the leakers in a dungeon - see Assange). All the while transferring a huge chunk of taxpayer money to your chums by giving them lucrative defence contract to wage these pointless wars that do nothing strategically but extend the US debt to astronomical levels (which the entire world must finance due to the dollar hegemony), then in turn your chums reward you with board positions and various other kickbacks (book deals and university, think tank and media jobs). You face zero possibility of being held accountable for your decisions because while politicians come and go your unelected position is secure and the population scarcely pays attention to foreign policy or public debt.
- silent_cal 3y ago
  I agree with you, but putting let's not pretend that neocons are the only ones looting the treasury. There's plenty of Democrats getting fat and happy too.
- FredPret 3y ago
  You hear stuff like this all the time. So when I first looked into Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrup-Grumman, L3Harris and others as an investor, I expected huge margins and booming profits. Instead I found they have steady earnings with between -5 and +10 % margin. Hardly Republic-eating stuff. I’m right there with you on public debt, although this is a problem throughout the rich world.
  - CPLX 3y ago
    Why would they give the money to you as a retail investor? They keep it. There’s a group of like 2000 people or so and they all change jobs every couple years and split the profits and buy houses in Maclean. It’s distributed via consulting deals, retainer agreements, acquisitions, and so on.
OfficeChad 3y ago
[dead]
scotty79 3y ago
It's time for the US to turn the clock back more then 100 years and regress to isolationist, peripheral economy. Let's hope for a peaceful transition.
lettergram 3y ago
One could argue the US has been an empire since we gobbled up the Spanish empire in the Spanish American war. So it has been 125 years or so.

by dsq 3y ago

bbsimonbb 3y ago

This is worth meditating! The American empire, like the British before it and the other european while we're at it, are flashes in the pan compared to the Romans, the Byzantines, the Ottomans. It could be that hypocrisy, racism and just wanting the oil/diamonds/gold/consumers is not a formula for lasting success.

pbhjpbhj 3y ago

Depressing, perhaps, if you're part of the nobility. Heartening, perhaps, of you're one of the workers building the palaces of revelry but never getting to enjoy them. Essentially, society is highly inequitable, instability is to be expected and is probably only a negative if you're living it up. If you're part of the higher classes gaining rent -- in any form -- from others needs then you'd probably want this 'empire' to live for ever. Under it all lies greed, and over-population.

lupusreal 3y ago
If you think America's administrative competency crisis will make things better for workers, I'd like some of what you're smoking.
OfficeChad 3y ago
[dead]
FredPret 3y ago
Where do people get these class warfare talking points? Is there a new wave of teenagers discovering Das Kapital and then saying stuff like this online?
- pbhjpbhj 3y ago
  Lol, by living in the World for more decades than a teenager. Did you have a point to make?
- dsq 3y ago
  I doubt one in a hundred have actually read any part of the original sources. They get what they know from fifteen second videos. This is not their fault, however. Reading long form is becoming a specialized skill.
- elzbardico 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - FredPret 3y ago
    a) address the argument, not the person b) spreading class divisions is bad, and spreading generational divisions is worse, because it splits up society rather than unify us. So stop it. c) I’m a millennial
- JackMorgan 3y ago
  We used to have strong unions that built a strong middle class. Now everyone's out for themselves and real wages are 1/3rd what they were for our grandparents. We have record numbers of the upper class, and fewer middle class each year. A lot of people want a middle class life and are seeing the connection between strong unified bargaining and their chances to become middle class.
  - senordevnyc 3y ago
    [dead]
  - willcipriano 3y ago
    Once you get a step further than that you'll realize that unions are another mechanism used to control labor[0] and that federal reserve policy on down is designed explicitly to suppress wages[1] so really the only solution is to make politicians fear the people again. [0]https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-signs-bill-block-us-railroad-strike-2022-12-02/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-signs-bill-block-us-r... (you aren't allowed to strike beacuse it will cost people money) [1-1]eg. 2% inflation target was originally suggested as it allowed employers to not give raises and lower their employee expenses over time [1-2]eg. interest rates were only raised once wages started ticking upward after decades of stagnation and decline, inflation in every other area of the marketplace wasn't a concern and you were labeled some sort of "inflation nut" if you mentioned it [1-3] now consider trade tariffs that encourage firms to offshore, lack of immigration enforcement creating a unlimited supply of low skill labor, use of below minimum wage prison labor to dilute the power of workers not in prison, welfare programs that subsidize low wage workers who otherwise wouldn't be able to afford working for a employer and you start to think this isn't just a happy accident for the capital class that the world is arranged in this very specific way benefitting them.

hayst4ck 3y ago

Apparently in 1971 the Bretton-Woods agreement[1] was "suspended" and America went off the gold standard. Because the US dollar became both a fiat currency[2] and a reserve currency[3], it meant that we could print as much money as we like. Printing money directly fuels corruption and income inequality. Rather than reconciling bad decisions and balancing a budget, you just print more money. Financialization[4], a force which frequently gets referenced in Boeing threads, is just another consequence of poor monetary policy, as is decline of Rule of Law[5]. Ray Dalio's Principles for a Changing World Order is the best explanation I've seen for the general state of America and its clear decline (45m): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8 [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system [2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_money https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_money [3]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_currency https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserve_currency [4]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financialization https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financialization [5]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_law

tpm 3y ago
There is plenty of corruption and income inequality regardless of money printing velocity. What would be the causal link between them? There was huge corruption in former Eastern/Soviet Block countries where prices were more or less stable. There was huge inequality in gold-standard feudalism.
- hayst4ck 3y ago
  Ray Dalio's video explicitly explains the causal link between printing money and corruption. Printing money (as a fiat reserve currency) implies the decline of rule of law and therefore corruption, but corruption does not imply that money was printed, nor does the lack of printing money imply low corruption.
  - tpm 3y ago
    > "corruption does not imply that money was printed, nor does the lack of printing money imply low corruption." If corruption is independent of money printing, "Printing money directly fuels corruption" is not a true statement.

f6v 3y ago

> The Romans at least got to enjoy a couple hundred years of wine, revelry and decadence before things broke down completely. I’ve been enjoying The History of Rome podcast. It seems like the most consistent thing was civil wars which were followed by purges.

mFixman 3y ago
Same here. I'm currently listening around the final years of the Flavian dynasty and I'm wondering when these "couple hundred years of wine, revelry and decadence [in the post-Augustian Empire]" are supposed to arrive.
dsq 3y ago
From what I've read, the best years were during the "Five Good Emperors" period, so about a century, but even during the civil unrest periods things were OK if you stayed in your villa with your slaves and vineyards (OK relative to the poor, of course).
- baobabKoodaa 3y ago
  Getting really strong "why dont they just eat cake" vibes from this post
  - robertlagrant 3y ago
    This phraseology is still just barely disguised insinuation. Insinuation bad. Make a real, good faith point.
    - baobabKoodaa 3y ago
      I was trying to make a joke, not a point. I guess I missed the mark.
- rsynnott 3y ago
  > but even during the civil unrest periods things were OK if you stayed in your villa with your slaves and vineyards Well, I mean, this is if you happened to be very rich. Also, of course, for quite a bit of the period it put you in the firing line for proscription, and other Rich Roman Hazards. Particularly after the end of the Republic, the Roman Empire tended to be a fairly hazardous place for rich people; odds were good that you'd end up, at least passively, on the Wrong Side at some point.

passwordoops 3y ago

I highly recommend "The Fourth Turning is Here" by Neil Howe. According to the generational theory he co-developed (1): "The theory states that a crisis recurs in American history after every fourth generation which is followed by a recovery (high). During this recovery, institutions and communitarian values are strong. Ultimately, succeeding generational archetypes attack and weaken institutions in the name of autonomy and individualism, which eventually creates a tumultuous political environment that ripens conditions for another crisis" We're in a crisis period now. In all his books have provided the best explanation for the highs and lows in American society If you can't get to the book, just look him up in any podcast or YouTube. But really the books are where the really detailed, convincing evidence lives. (1) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generat...

resolutebat 3y ago
So the previous crises were the Civil War and the Great Depression/WW2? If so, our current crisis is barely getting started.
- passwordoops 3y ago
  Crises culminating in wars going back to the 1400s, but yes, according to the theory this crisis period was triggered by the crash in 2008 and will likely climax sometime between 2028-2035. So this decade's gonna suck, will probably involve a war (civil or great power). But I err on the side that a conflict will leave the country stronger as happened in the past (no guarantee, especially if we lose a great power conflict) and America will be a more egalitarian, prosperous place by the 2040s. Thus the cycle will begin anew and the country will suck again circa 2115
  - lobsterthief 3y ago
    It’s also quite possible none of that happens ;) We’re naturally trained to find patterns in things.

fmbb 3y ago

> The Romans at least got to enjoy a couple hundred years of wine, revelry and decadence before things broke down completely. Which Romans? I’m fairly sure a lot of powerful Americans have enjoyed a couple hundred years of good wine and some decadence.

robertlagrant 3y ago
Almost everyone now can afford wine and some decadance, from a Roman standard. Roman decadence was grapes and wine and meats and sex. Far more people now have access to far better things than the Romans ever experienced.
- elzbardico 3y ago
  wine, meats and sex? What could possibly be better than that?
  - robertlagrant 3y ago
    I'm not saying it could :) I'm just commenting on the "powerful Americans" line, above. I.e. what they called decadent we call normal, in no small part due to Americans who grew powerful (or rather, rich) by delivering increased value to ordinary people.

ak_111 3y ago

If you are part of the military industrial complex or the neocon establishment clique then the last three decades (since the start of the unipolar moment) have been extremely enjoyable and decadent as you get a free pass to milk the American empire. You get lauded by the media as a hero for bombing arabs from the sky with zero possibility of defeat (and if the devastating horror inflected on the civilian population is revealed you get to throw the leakers in a dungeon - see Assange). All the while transferring a huge chunk of taxpayer money to your chums by giving them lucrative defence contract to wage these pointless wars that do nothing strategically but extend the US debt to astronomical levels (which the entire world must finance due to the dollar hegemony), then in turn your chums reward you with board positions and various other kickbacks (book deals and university, think tank and media jobs). You face zero possibility of being held accountable for your decisions because while politicians come and go your unelected position is secure and the population scarcely pays attention to foreign policy or public debt.

silent_cal 3y ago
I agree with you, but putting let's not pretend that neocons are the only ones looting the treasury. There's plenty of Democrats getting fat and happy too.
FredPret 3y ago
You hear stuff like this all the time. So when I first looked into Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrup-Grumman, L3Harris and others as an investor, I expected huge margins and booming profits. Instead I found they have steady earnings with between -5 and +10 % margin. Hardly Republic-eating stuff. I’m right there with you on public debt, although this is a problem throughout the rich world.
- CPLX 3y ago
  Why would they give the money to you as a retail investor? They keep it. There’s a group of like 2000 people or so and they all change jobs every couple years and split the profits and buy houses in Maclean. It’s distributed via consulting deals, retainer agreements, acquisitions, and so on.

OfficeChad 3y ago

[dead]

scotty79 3y ago

It's time for the US to turn the clock back more then 100 years and regress to isolationist, peripheral economy. Let's hope for a peaceful transition.

lettergram 3y ago

One could argue the US has been an empire since we gobbled up the Spanish empire in the Spanish American war. So it has been 125 years or so.