10 ms·

Right now one of the biggest blockers in on-shoring semiconductor fab at any kind of reasonable price-point and timescale is the lack of a skilled workforce. Th

by icyfox 3y ago

Right now one of the biggest blockers in on-shoring semiconductor fab at any kind of reasonable price-point and timescale is the lack of a skilled workforce. This legislation has dual objectives: train new people to get into sophisticated manufacturing AND to build out the actual infrastructure itself. That almost guarantees it won't be the most efficient way to actually get these chips on American soil. Whether we look back in 20 years and think "wow glad we took that hit upfront" is anyone's guess.

resource_waste 3y ago
Or we are going to be training Junior engineers with outdated skill sets and build outdated infrastructure. Sometimes top down planning works, but I think I would personally need to trust the leadership and the incentives. Unfortunately incentives on these are typically to do bare-minimum so you can meet the criteria to get subsidies. Sure the chips will be usable, but you spent a multiplier of the cost it takes to get it, and the chips aren't cutting edge. I'd a bit more interested in some moonshot idealism than just some military buildup.
- lupusreal 3y ago
  Top down planning is the only way projects requiring massive capital investment get done. There's no such thing as grassroots fabs.
  - resource_waste 3y ago
    The top down planning could be profit driven rather than defense driven.
    - lupusreal 3y ago
      Defense consideration generally require defense driven planning.
- autoexecbat 3y ago
  It really doesn't matter if it's a bit out-dated, you cant create senior engineers without them being junior. All seniors trained on currently 'old' methods by definition of time passing
- evilduck 3y ago
  > the chips aren't cutting edge. We learned from the pandemic that a huge amount of the world's manufacturing economy depends on the availability of old and outdated chips. Being competitive in cutting edge CPUs and GPUs is only one facet of the problem. Incrementally addressing chip production needs seems better than doing nothing for longer in an attempt to solve everything at once, or a riskier leapfrog attempt that's likely to fail.
- Aloisius 3y ago
  > and the chips aren't cutting edge. Intel is building two 20A in Arizona and one 18A fab in Ohio. If they aren't cutting edge, what is?
ar_lan 3y ago
Why don't we just use AI to do this? /s should hopefully be obvious, but it does seem like anytime AI gets mentioned, it's clear cut to remove all US jobs away within the next 3-5 years, so it's ironic seeing a "lack of a skilled workforce" comment.
devwastaken 3y ago
I don't think Intel is going to train a new skilled workforce. Their domestic hiring is minimal. Like the rest of tech these bills are leveraging work visas that ensure the Corp has feudal control over their workers. The right thing to do is to block these big waves and force global competition.
- lenerdenator 3y ago
  Who would the competition be between?
  - gamepsys 3y ago
    Right now the high-end fabrication competition is TMSC, Samsung, and Intel. All three are supported by nations. The idea that we should just let the freemarket handle the issue doesn't feel grounded in practicality.
RandomWorker 3y ago
The issue is there are few opportunities for junior people to start their careers. There is no shortage of talent but where do we start? I’ve been applying for jobs in the semi conductor industry but haven’t had any luck because ever Is looking for senior staff but nothing for newcomers.
- spaniard89277 3y ago
  In most of the west (with few exceptions) is that you should waste at least a decade training yourself with little information of what's useful to learn. Then, you'll be talked down for being poor and lost. And whatever money you make will be put directly in the hands of your landlords, that profits off scarcity.
  - 7speter 3y ago
    Or be told youre looking for a dei handout
happytiger 3y ago
This is a re-shoring of strategic capabilities not a labor move. The labor will most likely be imported as it doesn’t really exist in the US at the scale needed with an eventual eye towards more domestic labor. Expect large numbers of imported skilled labor in the short term.
- icyfox 3y ago
  The text of the bill [^1] disagrees with this: > In awarding financial assistance for planning or establishing a Manufacturing USA Institute, an agency shall give special consideration to such institutes that > contribute to the geographic diversity of the Manufacturing USA program, > are located in an area with a low per capita income, > are located in an area with a high proportion of socially disadvantaged residents, or > are located in small and rural communities. It seems very much to be both. [^1]: https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/4346 https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/4346
  - happytiger 3y ago
    Oh yes, the bill has all kinds of nice ideas in it. But then there is reality. And reality is that there isn’t some giant labor pool of fab workers in the US — yet. - President Joe Biden signed the CHIPS and Science Act into law one year ago, and semiconductor companies across the U.S. have promised to spend $231 billion on building chip manufacturing hubs on American soil. - Now, as the shovels hit the ground to begin construction, companies are realizing how difficult it is to find talent. - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company said it had to delay production at its $40 billion Arizona plant due to a lack of workers in the U.S. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/09/us-chip-sector-talent-gap-emerges-as-makers-spend-billions.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/09/us-chip-sector-talent-gap-em...
    - bombcar 3y ago
      Whatcha talking about? My small rural area is full of unemployed semiconductor engineers ;) (Though it could be - if you can wait 20 years you could home grow it)
nyokodo 3y ago
> Whether we look back in 20 years and think "wow glad we took that hit upfront" is anyone's guess Globalization is breaking down quickly. Chips are crucial to national security and our economy. The supply chain for advanced chips is heavily dependent on East Asia which is a geopolitical powder keg and a demographic time bomb. The only thing more expensive than whatever we end up with is chips unavailable at any price because East Asia devolves into a war stricken basket case. We needed to have been starting this panic training/building 10 years ago but better late than never!
- TremendousJudge 3y ago
  >Globalization is breaking down quickly Is it? I don't know if there's a concrete way of measuring "amount of globalization", but I'd guess that right now we're probably the most globalized we've ever been. "More things that you use are made outside your own country" has only been growing, and with the advent of full remote companies that also includes much more software than before -- it used to be that only huge corporations would offshore software development, now everybody can do it.
  - s1artibartfast 3y ago
    Global trade as a percentage of global GDP peaked somewhere around 2011 and has been steadily declining. If you look at the US in particular the relative value of imports and exports is down about 30% from the peak 10 years ago. That's a big change for such a short duration
    - adventured 3y ago
      And simultaneously the US has been ploughing massive amounts of capital into domestic manufacturing construction. Money that would have previously been invested into China or elsewhere, is now staying domestic (with a lot of capital also going to eg Mexico).
      - s1artibartfast 3y ago
hollywood_court 3y ago
I imagine we’d have that skilled workforce if companies paid enough. I’m a former construction contractor who reinvented myself as a software developer. Each time I run into one of my former peers in the construction industry I hear the same complaints from them. “We can’t hire any good help.” Yet they are still paying the same non living wages that they have for 30 years.
- sfilmeyer 3y ago
  I don't think that dynamic is the same in construction and in semiconductor manufacturing. Certain parts of the chip-building supply chain just plain don't exist in the USA, and so no one in the USA currently has those skills. It's not like there are lots of folks with the skills in the USA but they're all leaving the industry for higher paying jobs.
  - lotsofpulp 3y ago
    The reason there are not a lot of folks with the skills in the USA is because 30 years ago, the US labor market did not appropriately reward those parts of the chip building supply chain. Same dynamic as not paying construction workers enough, just with a greater time lag.
    - sfilmeyer 3y ago
      I think the distinction is still important, in that the time lag is large enough to have changed the current dynamics, even if they still match on longer timescales. Raising salaries a bit could stem the outflow of construction workers, and raising salaries sufficiently could bring folks like the prior commenter back into the industry. But as more time passes this gets less and less effective, because there's no one left in the industry to retain and no one with recent enough knowledge to pull back in.
  - javajosh 3y ago
    What skills are they, specifically? I'd like to see companies like Intel make a resource describing them, at least, and at most, offer to pay training costs and offer a job at the end of it.
asabjorn 3y ago
[flagged]
eitally 3y ago
I don't buy this for a minute. It's very easy to train people to work in factories and there are lots of Americans willing to do it if the pay is right. These companies are just complaining so they can get more federal handouts to offset the higher labor costs of onshoring.
- count 3y ago
  These are not those kinds of factories, and it's not 'easy' to train for. And Americans are surely WILLING to do the work, but have no idea how. If it was so goddamned easy to build a chip fab, they'd be all over the place - everybody needs them, and they're extremely strategic.
  - bombcar 3y ago
    Is it that the work is impossibly skilled or that there’s only so much demand to go around and the capital costs to build a state of the art fab is just astronomically high?
    - count 3y ago
      I think it's a lot of both. Like fighter jets - they're very, very hard to fly and also expensive to build and maintain.

by icyfox 3y ago

resource_waste 3y ago

Or we are going to be training Junior engineers with outdated skill sets and build outdated infrastructure. Sometimes top down planning works, but I think I would personally need to trust the leadership and the incentives. Unfortunately incentives on these are typically to do bare-minimum so you can meet the criteria to get subsidies. Sure the chips will be usable, but you spent a multiplier of the cost it takes to get it, and the chips aren't cutting edge. I'd a bit more interested in some moonshot idealism than just some military buildup.

lupusreal 3y ago
Top down planning is the only way projects requiring massive capital investment get done. There's no such thing as grassroots fabs.
- resource_waste 3y ago
  The top down planning could be profit driven rather than defense driven.
  - lupusreal 3y ago
    Defense consideration generally require defense driven planning.
autoexecbat 3y ago
It really doesn't matter if it's a bit out-dated, you cant create senior engineers without them being junior. All seniors trained on currently 'old' methods by definition of time passing
evilduck 3y ago
> the chips aren't cutting edge. We learned from the pandemic that a huge amount of the world's manufacturing economy depends on the availability of old and outdated chips. Being competitive in cutting edge CPUs and GPUs is only one facet of the problem. Incrementally addressing chip production needs seems better than doing nothing for longer in an attempt to solve everything at once, or a riskier leapfrog attempt that's likely to fail.
Aloisius 3y ago
> and the chips aren't cutting edge. Intel is building two 20A in Arizona and one 18A fab in Ohio. If they aren't cutting edge, what is?

ar_lan 3y ago

Why don't we just use AI to do this? /s should hopefully be obvious, but it does seem like anytime AI gets mentioned, it's clear cut to remove all US jobs away within the next 3-5 years, so it's ironic seeing a "lack of a skilled workforce" comment.

devwastaken 3y ago

I don't think Intel is going to train a new skilled workforce. Their domestic hiring is minimal. Like the rest of tech these bills are leveraging work visas that ensure the Corp has feudal control over their workers. The right thing to do is to block these big waves and force global competition.

lenerdenator 3y ago
Who would the competition be between?
- gamepsys 3y ago
  Right now the high-end fabrication competition is TMSC, Samsung, and Intel. All three are supported by nations. The idea that we should just let the freemarket handle the issue doesn't feel grounded in practicality.

RandomWorker 3y ago

The issue is there are few opportunities for junior people to start their careers. There is no shortage of talent but where do we start? I’ve been applying for jobs in the semi conductor industry but haven’t had any luck because ever Is looking for senior staff but nothing for newcomers.

spaniard89277 3y ago
In most of the west (with few exceptions) is that you should waste at least a decade training yourself with little information of what's useful to learn. Then, you'll be talked down for being poor and lost. And whatever money you make will be put directly in the hands of your landlords, that profits off scarcity.
- 7speter 3y ago
  Or be told youre looking for a dei handout

happytiger 3y ago

This is a re-shoring of strategic capabilities not a labor move. The labor will most likely be imported as it doesn’t really exist in the US at the scale needed with an eventual eye towards more domestic labor. Expect large numbers of imported skilled labor in the short term.

icyfox 3y ago
The text of the bill [^1] disagrees with this: > In awarding financial assistance for planning or establishing a Manufacturing USA Institute, an agency shall give special consideration to such institutes that > contribute to the geographic diversity of the Manufacturing USA program, > are located in an area with a low per capita income, > are located in an area with a high proportion of socially disadvantaged residents, or > are located in small and rural communities. It seems very much to be both. [^1]: https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/4346 https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/4346
- happytiger 3y ago
  Oh yes, the bill has all kinds of nice ideas in it. But then there is reality. And reality is that there isn’t some giant labor pool of fab workers in the US — yet. - President Joe Biden signed the CHIPS and Science Act into law one year ago, and semiconductor companies across the U.S. have promised to spend $231 billion on building chip manufacturing hubs on American soil. - Now, as the shovels hit the ground to begin construction, companies are realizing how difficult it is to find talent. - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company said it had to delay production at its $40 billion Arizona plant due to a lack of workers in the U.S. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/09/us-chip-sector-talent-gap-emerges-as-makers-spend-billions.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/09/us-chip-sector-talent-gap-em...
  - bombcar 3y ago
    Whatcha talking about? My small rural area is full of unemployed semiconductor engineers ;) (Though it could be - if you can wait 20 years you could home grow it)

nyokodo 3y ago

> Whether we look back in 20 years and think "wow glad we took that hit upfront" is anyone's guess Globalization is breaking down quickly. Chips are crucial to national security and our economy. The supply chain for advanced chips is heavily dependent on East Asia which is a geopolitical powder keg and a demographic time bomb. The only thing more expensive than whatever we end up with is chips unavailable at any price because East Asia devolves into a war stricken basket case. We needed to have been starting this panic training/building 10 years ago but better late than never!

TremendousJudge 3y ago
>Globalization is breaking down quickly Is it? I don't know if there's a concrete way of measuring "amount of globalization", but I'd guess that right now we're probably the most globalized we've ever been. "More things that you use are made outside your own country" has only been growing, and with the advent of full remote companies that also includes much more software than before -- it used to be that only huge corporations would offshore software development, now everybody can do it.
- s1artibartfast 3y ago
  Global trade as a percentage of global GDP peaked somewhere around 2011 and has been steadily declining. If you look at the US in particular the relative value of imports and exports is down about 30% from the peak 10 years ago. That's a big change for such a short duration
  - adventured 3y ago
    And simultaneously the US has been ploughing massive amounts of capital into domestic manufacturing construction. Money that would have previously been invested into China or elsewhere, is now staying domestic (with a lot of capital also going to eg Mexico).
    - s1artibartfast 3y ago

hollywood_court 3y ago

I imagine we’d have that skilled workforce if companies paid enough. I’m a former construction contractor who reinvented myself as a software developer. Each time I run into one of my former peers in the construction industry I hear the same complaints from them. “We can’t hire any good help.” Yet they are still paying the same non living wages that they have for 30 years.

sfilmeyer 3y ago
I don't think that dynamic is the same in construction and in semiconductor manufacturing. Certain parts of the chip-building supply chain just plain don't exist in the USA, and so no one in the USA currently has those skills. It's not like there are lots of folks with the skills in the USA but they're all leaving the industry for higher paying jobs.
- lotsofpulp 3y ago
  The reason there are not a lot of folks with the skills in the USA is because 30 years ago, the US labor market did not appropriately reward those parts of the chip building supply chain. Same dynamic as not paying construction workers enough, just with a greater time lag.
  - sfilmeyer 3y ago
    I think the distinction is still important, in that the time lag is large enough to have changed the current dynamics, even if they still match on longer timescales. Raising salaries a bit could stem the outflow of construction workers, and raising salaries sufficiently could bring folks like the prior commenter back into the industry. But as more time passes this gets less and less effective, because there's no one left in the industry to retain and no one with recent enough knowledge to pull back in.
- javajosh 3y ago
  What skills are they, specifically? I'd like to see companies like Intel make a resource describing them, at least, and at most, offer to pay training costs and offer a job at the end of it.

asabjorn 3y ago

[flagged]

eitally 3y ago

I don't buy this for a minute. It's very easy to train people to work in factories and there are lots of Americans willing to do it if the pay is right. These companies are just complaining so they can get more federal handouts to offset the higher labor costs of onshoring.

count 3y ago
These are not those kinds of factories, and it's not 'easy' to train for. And Americans are surely WILLING to do the work, but have no idea how. If it was so goddamned easy to build a chip fab, they'd be all over the place - everybody needs them, and they're extremely strategic.
- bombcar 3y ago
  Is it that the work is impossibly skilled or that there’s only so much demand to go around and the capital costs to build a state of the art fab is just astronomically high?
  - count 3y ago
    I think it's a lot of both. Like fighter jets - they're very, very hard to fly and also expensive to build and maintain.