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> Around 10% of Gaza's journalists have been killed versus 2.5% of healthcare workers. One possible explanation is that journalists have a much higher probabil
by ciconia 3y ago
> Around 10% of Gaza's journalists have been killed versus 2.5% of healthcare workers.
One possible explanation is that journalists have a much higher probability of being close to where the fighting is, than healthcare workers.
- g-b-r 3y agoThat healthcare workers comparison does indeed not make much sense, it should be healthcare workers involved in retrieving the injured, which are indeed at very high risk (even though theoretically they shouldn't be targeted)
- simpletone 3y ago10% would be considered an extremely high death rate for soldiers involved in the fighting. Even 2.5% for healthcare workers is ridiculously high. Would be interesting to see what the death rates for journalists, medics, soldiers, etc was in afghan war, iraq war, vietnam war, etc. I highly doubt any reaches 10%.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago> 10% would be considered an extremely high death rate for soldiers involved in the fighting. Even 2.5% for healthcare workers is ridiculously high. Hamas based their operations where conventional rules of war prohibit fire. That makes comparing casualty rates incredibly difficult. (To my knowledge, nobody else has done this so comprehensively. Though given its success, I expect it to be emulated. Which unfortunately means prohibitions on bombing hospitals, schools and places of worship are now obsolete.)
- licebmi__at__ 3y ago>Though given its success, I expect it to be emulated. I'm wondering by what metric do you define success.
- hersko 3y agoA lot of civilians being killed by the enemy driving global condemnation.
- falcor84 3y agoAre there any other examples from history where the goal of combatants was (or at least appeared to be) to maximize the destruction of their own side? If so, what were the outcomes of these?
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago> Are there any other examples from history where the goal of combatants was (or at least appeared to be) to maximize the destruction of their own side? Every false flag operation designed to rally support for a conflict.
- falcor84 3y agoI'm not quite clear on what you're implying here, but in any case I would prefer to find an example of a prolonged war rather than an isolated false flag operation.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago> I would prefer to find an example of a prolonged war rather than an isolated false flag operation During the Chinese civil war, the Maoists let the Nationalists take a shellacking when convenient. And while I wouldn’t say America was conducive to civilian deaths on “our” side in Vietnam or Afghanistan, it clearly wasn’t something we optimised for: our priority was protecting our troops. Hamas is a paramilitary. It serves its own forces. The civilians of Palestine aren’t “its” people; they’re a battlefield element.
- falcor84 3y agoApologies for my ignorance, but aren't Hamas literally the government of Gaza? Have they been renounced by the population in favor of any other government?
- hmcq6 3y agoThis is unfounded. I'm still waiting on a single shred of evidence to drop about the AP building from 2-3 years ago https://apnews.com/article/israel-middle-east-business-israel-palestinian-conflict-fe452147166f55ba5a9d32e6ba8b53d7 https://apnews.com/article/israel-middle-east-business-israe... > Which unfortunately means prohibitions on bombing hospitals, schools and places of worship are now obsolete. Even if Hamas was fighting from hospitals and schools that is not how this works. Israel would be required to give those schools and hospitals warning first which they have not been doing. And assuming (incorrectly) that Israel was following the rules of engagement and giving the civilians warning, why are they hitting the refuge camps with 2000lb dumb bombs? Why not guided bombs?
- nsguy 3y agoIsrael has ordered hospitals to evacuate, e.g.: https://healthpolicy-watch.news/who-calls-for-israel-to-rescind-order-to-evacuate-al-quds-hospital-israel-says-its-used-as-hamas-command-center/ https://healthpolicy-watch.news/who-calls-for-israel-to-resc... I think you're generally wrong on the "they have not been doing" comment. Israel has been giving warnings, and those warnings were intentionally being ignored to maximize the damage to Israel's reputation. But if you have some comprehensive data here I'd be interested in seeing it. From my observation the pattern has been Israel giving warnings/ordering evacuations with the response being "it can't be done" only to end with significantly more difficult conditions. Israel did demand that the entirety of Northern Gaza be evacuated from civilians (including those "camps" you mention, more below, and including all those hospitals) which was again pushed back on as "impossible" or physically prevented by Hamas which in turn caused increased civilian casualty rates and the eventual almost full evacuation under significantly more difficult conditions. The use of the terminology "refugee camps" is also confusing. Some of what the media refers to as "refugee camps" are permanent settlements, effectively cities, where the population consists of many 1948 refugees. Not what most people think about when they hear "refugee camps". As to why heavy bombs are used I'm not an expert but potentially to penetrate deeper and there might be other reasons. All that said, I think it should be acknowledged that some of the methods Israel is using are likely to try and achieve some psychological advantage against the enemy. I don't think this that's necessarily a violation of international law given that warnings were given. It's within the realm of what I would call a military objective (demoralizing the enemy forces and destroying their infrastructure).
- phone8675309 3y ago> Hamas based their operations where conventional rules of war prohibit fire. This has not stopped the IDF
- sgift 3y agoYes, and if you look up the rules of war you will see that if you base your operations there the enemy is allowed to attack it. Besides a desire to not kill your civilian population that's another reason countries don't do that. But Hamas doesn't care for civilians.
- tacomonstrous 3y ago>But Hamas doesn't care for civilians. Neither does the IDF by all available evidence.
- kaba0 3y agoIDF cares for their civilians more, and to protect them they unfortunately have to accept Palestinian civilian casualties, there are no other way.
- SomeoneFromCA 3y agoyes, right. Lately they preemptively killed civilians when they were in a line for flour, because they were caring for civilians, and therefore prevented them from overeating.
- zelphirkalt 3y agoAfter so many dead Palestinians whether combatants or not, compared to the number of killed Israelis, there is no other way? Laughable. Don't buy into IDF propaganda too much.
- Vecr 3y agoYou have to think about the exploitability of your strategy. Both the IDF and Hamas optimize for a low exploitability number (though, Israel, really, you need to stagger your religious holidays, this is the second time this kind of thing has happened...), having a "kill count limiter" (in a value less than the mid single digit millions) is obviously a bad strategy and is extremely exploitable.
- redeeman 3y ago[flagged]
- immibis 3y agoWhat's the point of hiding soldiers among civilian targets if Israel is just going to bomb the civilian targets? The point of any fighter using human shields is that the enemy doesn't fire because they don't want to hurt the human shields. If they're willing to kill the human shields, they don't help you, so why bother with them? This apparent myth rubs me the same way as "there's no food because Hamas is stealing it" - really? All of it? For what purpose?
- Scarblac 3y ago> What's the point of hiding soldiers among civilian targets if Israel is just going to bomb the civilian targets Getting international opinion to turn against Israel. Thats the way Hamas can survive this, getting enough pressure on Israel to make them stop.
- hef19898 3y agoOne, Hamas isn't doing this. No proof beyond the inevitable effects of fighting in one of the most densly populated areas on this planet. Two, Israel is doing an incredible good job at putting the pressure on themselves right now.
- cnlevy 3y ago> One, Hamas isn't doing this Sinwar himself said it : Then a courier arrived with a message from Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas in Gaza, saying, in effect: Don’t worry, we have the Israelis right where we want them. Hamas’s fighters, the Al-Qassam Brigades, were doing fine, the upbeat message said. The militants were ready for Israel’s expected assault on Rafah, a city on Gaza’s southern edge. High civilian casualties would add to the worldwide pressure on Israel to stop the war, Sinwar’s message said, according to people informed about the meeting. Source https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-thinks-it-could-win-gaza-war-with-israel-6254a8c6 https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-thinks-it-could-...
- fortzi 3y ago> One, Hamas isn't doing this. You sound confident, stating it like it's a fact. Care to share your sources?
- redeeman 3y ago[flagged]
- kaba0 3y ago> forbid military age men from leaving the country You mean like it happens in most wars?
- redeeman 3y agofunny, I dont recall 25 year olds forbidden from leaving the US during the last how many years and countless wars? I also dont see a general notice in israel to not leave the country. But even if it happens other places, it does not change what it is
- Vecr 3y agoIt's likely he would not be allowed to leave by internal forces. Obviously he could try to sneak away but that's what the Russia aligned guy did back in 2014...
- Aerbil313 3y ago> Which unfortunately means prohibitions on bombing hospitals, schools and places of worship are now obsolete. Interesting. I wonder whether genocide of all people seriously harmed by IDF since Oct 7 should also be added to the list of war crimes obsoleted in this recent war. It only makes sense, since all these people are enemies of the state of Israel with a very high probability of causing harm to the civilians living there in the future. Geneva conventions are really showing their age in the past few months.
- boringg 3y agoWhats the confidence in the underlying data giving 10%?
- Qem 3y agoThat assumes upper bound of published figures, 130. Lower bound is about 90. If 130 is 10%, 90 would be 7%. In my estimation post I took conservatively wikipedia's count, close to the lower bound.
- hmcq6 3y agoThat's a bad explanation because it relies on an assumption about how the press in Palestine are operating on the ground and I'm guessing no one on hackernews actually has that info. We don't know that reporters are rushing into danger or hanging out where the danger is going to be. In fact, a lot of the "reporters" who we've been watching were never war reporters to begin with. Motaz, for instance was an aspiring travel photographer. Bisan was a filmmaker. Wael was the cheif of Al-Jazera in Gaza. They're (most likely) not seeking out death and war, they're just reporting on the condition of their city, of their people. It also ignores 75 years of history. CPJ stated this was the deadliest conflict for journalists in the past 30 years. Reporters Without Borders has accused Israel of intentionally targeting journalists. Human Rights Watch signed a letter stating the US needed to put pressure on Israel to stop killing journalists. Amnesty international says Israel must be investigated for the war crime of killing journalists.
- addicted 3y agoThis has also been one of the deadliest wars for civilians in general. Also when you’re using such a loose definition of journalist obviously the deaths would be greater.
- zizee 3y agoAre you saying this war has a higher civilian casualty ratio that other wars? Sadly history shows that civilians have been casualties of war at high rates compared to combatants. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_casualty_ratio https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_casualty_ratio
- falseprofit 3y agoThat article suggests the average ratio to be 1:1, so yes this war has a higher ratio.
- ars 3y agoIsrael estimated 12,000 Hamas at a time when Hamas figures claimed 26,000 dead. That's pretty close to 1:1. Part of the trouble is Israel can't prove the 12,000, and no one actually believes the Hamas figures are legitimate. But there are not better figures available for either number. So 1:1 for Gaza is the best we can estimate.
- eeeehhh 3y agoThis explaination wouldn't explain why the figure is so much higher than when compared to other conflicts in the world.
- gataca 3y agomany on this list have been shown to be hamas members, this is propaganda
- moomin 3y agoQuite a few died in their own homes. Worth mentioning the IDF know where everyone in Gaza lives.
- immibis 3y ago[flagged]
- wolverine876 3y agoCan you support that claim?
- shprd 3y agoThe 'claim' that it bombed churches? https://www.wsj.com/video/israeli-airstrike-hits-orthodox-church-in-gaza/BB0048FA-EE7B-45B7-BD6B-E57152255C09 https://www.wsj.com/video/israeli-airstrike-hits-orthodox-ch... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Church_of_Saint_Porphyrius_airstrike https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Church_of_Saint_Porphyrius_air...
- wolverine876 3y agoThe claim that they were bombed more quickly. (I can't read the WSJ story.)
- tehjoker 3y agoAlternatively, you can watch this documentary where journalists wearing identifying gear away from the action were shot by a sniper during the peaceful "March of Return" (2018). These were the "Palestinian Gandhis" Israel supporters keep talking about. They were massacred. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnZSaKYmP2s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnZSaKYmP2s
- hersko 3y ago> peaceful "March of Return" How is trying to storm a sovereign border peaceful? Pretty sure if a mob stormed any normal government border they would be shot.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago> How is trying to storm a sovereign border peaceful? It’s not. But it’s not grounds for lethal force. Audible warnings, warning shots and non-lethal rounds were the right moves.
- ars 3y agoSomeone trying to invade your country to kill people is not grounds for lethal force? You can't possibly be serious.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago> Someone trying to invade your country to kill people is not grounds for lethal force? Sure it is. But that’s not what you described—the border guards did not have enough information to conclude—as judge, jury and executioner—that they were trying to kill people.
- incognos 3y agoAgain, what border? between which countries? is there an army on the other side? are you serious? The United States does not recognize the State of Palestine, and therefore there is no border is there? so these people where fenced into an area that is occupied by Israel. If they tried to get out, they were trying to escape their Concentration Camp.
- givemeethekeys 3y ago[flagged]
- wolverine876 3y ago> Another possibility is that they also had a second job working for Hamas - so, on a list of "not really journalists". I think we need less baseless speculation in this discussion. Another commenter posted links to the Times of Israel, which of course is very imperfect, but it's a start.
- ars 3y agoIf you notice many of them died on Oct 7. i.e. they knew about the massacre in advance and were being "journalists" covering it. Reuters even had to publish an article saying they did not know in advance that some of their freelancers were involved.
- wolverine876 3y ago> If you notice many of them died on Oct 7. i.e. they knew about the massacre in advance and were being "journalists" covering it. Reuters even had to publish an article saying they did not know in advance that some of their freelancers were involved. Great, something moving us forward. Do you happen to have some substantive basis for those claims? I realize questions like that are a PITA and we're just talking on an Internet forum, not in a court or in the NY Times, but there is so much mis/disinfo out there on this war that I think it's really needed. Not your fault if you don't happen to have it.
- Jiro 3y ago[flagged]
- uluyol 3y agoAh yes, guilty until proven innocent. Yes, the assumption upon which all civilized societies are founded. /s
- philwelch 3y ago[flagged]
- porkbeer 3y agoOkay, share some of that 'plenty'.
- JamesAdir 3y agoAnother explanation is that what Gaza authorities define as a journalist/healthcare worker or aid worker, might be very broad. There are reports of UNRWA employees taking part in the terror attack on Israel on 10/7.
- incognos 3y agoOr another explanation could be that you do not want the world to learn about your activities.
- Qem 3y ago> One possible explanation is that journalists have a much higher probability of being close to where the fighting is Not closer than the people actually doing the fight. Look at this plot: https://imgur.com/a/SWNSYOn https://imgur.com/a/SWNSYOn For the curve of journalists killed to bend this way, my rough estimates point it's necessary for the journalist have ~3x the odds of being targeted when compared to a Hamas fighter, or ~75x more when compared to random Gaza inhabitant (~75:1 vs. ~25:1 odds against random person). I posted in detail my estimation method here, but it got downvoted and now sits close to the bottom of this discussion, but you can read it here: Part I: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39603300 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39603300 Part II: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39603311 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39603311 Part III (Python source code): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39603322 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39603322
- throwawayhate 3y agoOP: This is a meaningful rabbit hole to explore. The rate of journalists murdered in Gaza is much higher than other similar situations. The Geneva convention requires citizens and journalists to not be targeted. [1] Human Rights Watch [2] and Amnesty International [3] are reporting journalists are actively being targeted. Today, someone's phone can be tracked to target them. The LA Times also had a piece outlining the journalists experiences [4] [1] https://safety.rsf.org/appendix-i-protection-of-journalists-in-war-zones/ https://safety.rsf.org/appendix-i-protection-of-journalists-... [2] https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-israeli-strikes-on-journalists-hrw-amnesty-da5298024268f1fa8b214d8918b3775b https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-israeli-strikes-on-journa... [3] https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/12/lebanon-deadly-israeli-attack-on-journalists-must-be-investigated-as-a-war-crime/ https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/12/lebanon-deadl... [4] https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2023-12-21/gaza-journalists-killing-israel-bombing-palestinians https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2023-12-21/gaza-journa...