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EV LFP Battery Price War at Less Than $56 per KWh Within Six Months
- xbmcuser 3y agoWe are so close to the inflection point from where forget electric cars home batteries will make economic sense for the majority. Feed in tariffs received for solar installs home or commercial are falling and as more solar is installed will keep falling so installing batteries and using your own electricity at night instead of selling it for nothing will be the better option.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- Scoundreller 3y agoCordcutting could be a big deal for local distribution companies as it becomes viable. Pipecutting (what I call cutting natgas entirely in favour of heatpumps) is already on the radar of our natgas utility: they want to charge new build connection fees up-front instead of recovering over decades. Now, what if you could coordinate with a couple of neighbours and run a "merged" system that does some accounting to to cover imbalances? Or a shared backup generator?
- looofooo0 3y agoWhy should it? If you can sell or buy electricity or capacity in a large network then you should receive overall better prices.
- HDThoreaun 3y agoMy parents bought the house next door to their own. First thing I did was convince them to install panels and batteries and cut both gas connections and one electricity connection. Now theyre on heat pumps and saving tons because our gas utility keeps jacking up the fees.
- krasin 3y ago> Now, what if you could coordinate with a couple of neighbours and run a "merged" system that does some accounting to to cover imbalances? This is called electrical grid. What you are trying to ask is whether community-owned non-profit electrical utility operators that only minimally buy energy from the main grid will begin to appear in appreciable numbers.
- conradev 3y agoIt sounds more like a microgrid: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microgrid https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microgrid A community microgrid could absolutely be a thing!
- ZeroGravitas 3y ago> our natgas utility: they want to charge new build connection fees up-front instead of recovering over decades. That sounds like a part of a (welcome and positive) death spiral for natural gas.
- Scoundreller 3y agoI think the natgas will still go somewhere else (mainly power plants), just not be used for small-scale direct-combustion heating. The distribution companies are going to be SOL.
- medion 3y agoI still don’t understand how the electricity infrastructure will be maintained if there is mass on premise battery adoption. Large scale infrastructure will still be required for commercial industry and things like ev charging, but loss of the consumer sector to batteries must have a fairly substantial financial effect on on grid maintenance?
- IshKebab 3y agoDrastic increases in standing charges. It's still infeasible for most people to go off-grid with solar in the winter. (Depending on latitude.) I believe Spain has a tax for solar even if you are off grid. I think that's a stupid approach though.
- gonesilent 3y agoMost US city's will red flag your house for occupancy if your disconnect from the grid.
- dzhiurgis 3y agoWhat does that mean?
- zo1 3y agoMicrogrids or micro-infrastructure will become a thing. The local need will cause infra to spider out to the nearest producers. Not the other way around.
- rgmerk 3y agoHome batteries haven’t come down in price much for years. It seems that most of the cost is in everything that’s not a cell, and that stuff is specific to home batteries and hasn’t had economies of scale really kick in yet.
- philjohn 3y agoMaybe? But the scarcity of manufacturers of integrated home battery systems is also a thing. There are some Solar inverters that will just work with anything, but if you want a DC coupled system (for better efficiency, and to absorb inverter clipping) your choices are pretty damn limited right now.
- lm28469 3y ago> economic sense for the majority The majority being home owners, which is the minority in Europe
- matthewmacleod 3y ago65-70% depending on who and what you count, so not even close to a minority.
- hunglee2 3y agoChina 'over production' in the new energy sector is the critical driver toward making the global shift away from fossil fuels. It can't be done without collapsing the cost the doing so. We can expect the same story unfold for batteries as we saw a decade ago with photovoltaics - an ultimate win on aggregate for humanity
- lm28469 3y agoSo Russian gas bad but Chinese batteries/solar panels/windmill good?
- ponector 3y agoDon't you see how it is bad to trade with the terrorist state? China has issues, but it is not so evil as Russia and Iran.
- nharada 3y agoYes?
- flakeoil 3y agoFor the environment, yes, for sure. By the way, regarding windmills, China is not that big.
- throwaway4good 3y agoNothing wrong with Russian gas - something wrong with their invasion of Ukraine.
- lm28469 3y agoGood thing China has absolutely no ambitions when it comes to territory then, it would be a shame to repeat the exact same scenario
- realusername 3y agoIn a few years you'll have the same people surprised when the Chinese dictator will shut down key energy exports like these either for Taiwan or some other land grab. Some people just never learn from the past.
- Animats 3y agoArticle from which TedX guy copied.[1] Actual news story with sources in the South China Morning Post.[2] "Capacity utilisation is a major headache for producers in mainland China. The industry produced 747 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of battery power last year, while only 387GWh was installed into products, according to the China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance. Prices of Chinese battery cells could further decline by 10 to 15 per cent in 2024, dragged down by slowing demand in China’s EV market, according to a report by Haitong International this month." Somewhere, there is a really big pile of unsold batteries. Fortunately they are lithium-iron-phosphate, which doesn't go into thermal runaway and catch fire. [1] https://cnevpost.com/2024/01/17/battery-price-war-catl-byd-costs-down/ https://cnevpost.com/2024/01/17/battery-price-war-catl-byd-c... [2] https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3253116/chinas-lithium-ion-battery-industry-faces-excess-inventory-production-capacity-ev-market-downshifts https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3253116/chinas-lithium...
- londons_explore 3y agoThat pile of batteries isn't showing up on marketplaces like Alibaba. There, the cost of 1 kWh of cells (not even yet assembled into batteries) is still $150+. Makes me think someone might be claiming to produce far more cells/batteries than they really do.
- phreeza 3y agoAnd yet Bosch is still charging $600 for a 500Wh E-Bike battery pack.
- blackbeans 3y agoBosch batteries are made in Europe (Poland) but they can contain Chinese cells. Bike batteries do not use LFP because bike consumers demand high mileage, small size and low weight. The Bosch batteries are made very sturdy because bikes experience higher vibrations and water ingress compared to parts in cars. Bosch batteries are built to be removable on a daily basis for external charging. I still would say it is too expensive, but it is also not directly comparable.
- phreeza 3y agoYea the main problem in my opinion is they are DRM-laden and there is no real competition. I'd be happy for these premium batteries to exist if I could also choose a cheaper alternative e.g. from Decathlon. It's almost like the printer cartridge situation.
- throwaway4good 3y agoCheap batteries are a world changing technology. This is missing key in making cheap electric cars which solves numerous environmental problems. It also has massive geopolitical implications: A world that runs much less on oil is a very different world. The idea that this is overcapacity is nonsense. Currently a common electric car costs 40-50K USD, if a desirable electric car can be made at 15-20K USD it will unlock massive global demand.
- cinntaile 3y agoAssuming a big pack of 100 kWh, it would now cost $5.6k instead of $12-13k at the beginning of last year. That's not nearly enough for the price changes you mention. Most battery packs are about half that.
- throwaway4good 3y agoYou would also make a smaller car. Something like the BYD Seagull: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anoliCXXKIA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anoliCXXKIA
- fragmede 3y agoLooks a smidge bigger than a Smart Car or Fiat 500 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_w_ApfAl8OE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_w_ApfAl8OE
- bryanlarsen 3y agoAn engine and transmission for a consumer vehicle cost around $3k. If a 50kWh battery costs $3k plus a few hundred for an electric motor, then EV's have reached parity in cost.
- Cthulhu_ 3y agoNot only cars, but domestic and grid level batteries too; due to the high attractiveness of installing PV panels, the Dutch energy grid is under pressure, and the cost of electricity is wildly variable in the course of a day. It makes sense to store electricity yourself instead of feeding it back to the grid.
- stevage 3y agoDumb question, but I thought Tesla made its own batteries? So how does it benefit from some other company making cheap batteries?
- krasin 3y agoTesla's Megafactory is making cells based on the NMC chemistry. It's a little more energy-dense than LFP, but has a lower lifespan, depends on Nickel and Cobalt and so is more expensive than LFP batteries. Also, NMC batteries are much more prone to self-ignition. LFPs are very safe in comparison, although still not as safe as LTO batteries. Tesla started to adopt LFP cells and purchases them from Chinese suppliers.
- throwaway4good 3y agoFor all other markets than the US. Tesla (mostly) produces their cars in China using batteries bought from Chinese suppliers.
- giva 3y agoI thought Panasonic made batteries for Tesla.
- tooltalk 3y ago>> I thought Tesla made its own batteries? << Tesla doesn't make their own batteries -- the company instead sources them from Panasonic (NCA), CATL (LFP), LG (NCM), and BYD (LFP). >> So how does it benefit from some other company making cheap batteries? << Tesla doesn't really directly compete in the battery market despite all the hype about Tesla revolutionazing batteries, and is happy to buy from whoever is wiliing to offer the best price. Tesla has used Panasonic's NCA since 2010's because of their high energy density and low $$/KWh; then came the Chinese LFP around 2020. The Chinese battery makers have enormous price competitive advantage b/c they dominate the raw material supply-chain (ie, mines, refineries). LFP's are however mostly limited to Tesla's base/standard range trims due to their low energy density and weight.
- stevage 3y agoThanks, super helpful. But I'm still confused what the giga factory does, if not manufacture batteries?
- gorbypark 3y agoI’m interested to know how this is/will affect the prices of LFP batteries available to consumers off sites like Alibaba. I’ve been toying with the idea of building a DIY 48v off grid system using the typically blue 280-300Ah LFP cells. I never really tracked the price over time though so it would be interesting to see a historical chart of their prices. I assume the shipping costs would make up a decent chunk of their price, though.
- h0l0cube 3y agoI bought LFP batteries from Ali Baba just a couple of months ago. 100ah 3.2v x8 to boost my 100ah 12v to 300ah. Cell prices were about 60% of what they were in August, and curiously smaller in volume.
- holoduke 3y agoI bought 16x good quality EVE 280Ah L280K batteries back in 2021. this was the invoice: Item Value: $1,869.60, Freight charge: $403.80 Paypal fee(5%): $113.67, Other fee: $0.00, TOTAL AMOUNT: $2,387.07
- gorbypark 3y agoAmazing, that's a great data point, thanks! Would you be able to give me the name of the company you bought from, if your experience was pretty good with them?