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Summary: More ice melt => More fresh water in the Atlantic => cold surface anomalies in winter => sub-polar winter storms => heatwaves in Europe in summer Mos

Summary: More ice melt => More fresh water in the Atlantic => cold surface anomalies in winter => sub-polar winter storms => heatwaves in Europe in summer Mostly not predicted as models do not have fine enough grid resolution to show the movement of freshwater into the Atlantic, which happens via "narrow" channels.

chung8123 3y ago
More heatwaves, more AC, more ice melt.
BlueTemplar 3y ago
Sigh, considering how bad journalists are at nuance - especially those that don't consider themselves as journalists but still wield the 4th Power of Broadcast - I can't wait (/s) until we have to "explain ourselves" about how it "contradicts" our previous meme about excess freshwater from melt being expected to at least slow down the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic, leading to a weaker Gulf Stream, and therefore a colder Europe (as emphasized to the point of ridiculousness in The Day After Tomorrow apocalyptic movie)... by "forgetting" the emphasis on summers. Will at least be an opportunity to explain how Science actually works, and about chaotic systems I guess... ---- Still, one immediate question is how this impacts the rest of the year, since there's an (on the surface) obvious feedback loop here... (an answer to which might or might not be forthcoming...)
- GartzenDeHaes 3y ago
  > and about chaotic systems Surely you mean complex adaptive systems.
jillesvangurp 3y ago
Actually, quite a few of this is predicted just not with full certainty. One thing people forget is that Europe is very warm compared to most of Northern America which for the same latitude features much harsher temperatures in the winter. Most of Northern Europe isn't like most of Siberia or Canada (e.g. Berlin where I live is at the same latitude as Newfoundland. Toronto is almost 9 degrees further south. Winters are mild here, summers quite hot and humid. The reason for that is the gulf stream which works by hot water flowing towards the arctic, cooling down there and then flowing back. So, we get a lot of hot tropical sea water that keeps things warm. What happens if the arctic water has a lot less ice in it and warms up? People have of course modeled that and one possible outcome is a mini ice age in Europe. Another possible outcome is accelerated melting of what remains of glaciers and return of some tropical flora and fauna that as evidenced by fossil remains, used to be common in Northern Europe. It all depends. Both have happened in the past. It's hard to predict based on a sample of one. And technically the dumping of epic amounts of CO2 in our atmosphere has not happened at this scale and speed before. One thing is certain, summers are getting quite toasty in Southern Europe. It's slowly turning more arid, dry, and hot and it isn't that nice of a vacation destination because of it. 32 degrees Celcius is pleasant. 42 degrees just isn't.
- defrost 3y ago
  >The reason for that is the gulf stream Or, perhaps not: The Source of Europe's Mild Climate The notion that the Gulf Stream is responsible for keeping Europe anomalously warm turns out to be a myth https://www.americanscientist.org/article/the-source-of-europes-mild-climate https://www.americanscientist.org/article/the-source-of-euro... For context this is mostly from Richard Seager from back in 2002 https://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/people/seager/ https://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/people/seager/ https://www.atmos.washington.edu/~david/Gulf.pdf https://www.atmos.washington.edu/~david/Gulf.pdf and there's still a consensus forming, but he has the chops and he has a point .. there are comparisons to be made to the Pacific North West and being on the trailing edge (spin wise) of a large continental mass.
  - kayo_20211030 3y ago
    Both can be right. The heat budget of the NE Pacific ocean, without an equivalent to the Gulf Stream, may well explain the milder winters in Seattle, but the NE Atlantic's heat budget is still "goosed" by the Gulf Stream and mixing. The paper's argument doesn't engage that argument. It deals with atmospheric changes postulated as a consequence of freshwater anomalies caused by arctic melting.
    - defrost 3y ago
      Sure. The main point of interest here is that for a very long time the gulf stream alone has been the accepted common wisdom for a warm Europe. It's interesting that there's other credible factors, particularly with talk of potential gulf stream collapse.
- fardinahsan 3y ago
  Europe is to Eurasia what the Pacific NorthWest is to North America.
isodev 3y ago
That movie The Day After Tomorrow had a really cool visualisation for all that. The movie was released exactly 20 years ago...
- hef19898 3y ago
  Didn't the world freeze over in that film?
  - isodev 3y ago
    Indeed, it started a new ice age in the movie. I think the general lesson was that disruptions to currents gets us major headaches.

chung8123 3y ago

More heatwaves, more AC, more ice melt.

BlueTemplar 3y ago

Sigh, considering how bad journalists are at nuance - especially those that don't consider themselves as journalists but still wield the 4th Power of Broadcast - I can't wait (/s) until we have to "explain ourselves" about how it "contradicts" our previous meme about excess freshwater from melt being expected to at least slow down the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic, leading to a weaker Gulf Stream, and therefore a colder Europe (as emphasized to the point of ridiculousness in The Day After Tomorrow apocalyptic movie)... by "forgetting" the emphasis on summers. Will at least be an opportunity to explain how Science actually works, and about chaotic systems I guess... ---- Still, one immediate question is how this impacts the rest of the year, since there's an (on the surface) obvious feedback loop here... (an answer to which might or might not be forthcoming...)

GartzenDeHaes 3y ago
> and about chaotic systems Surely you mean complex adaptive systems.

jillesvangurp 3y ago

Actually, quite a few of this is predicted just not with full certainty. One thing people forget is that Europe is very warm compared to most of Northern America which for the same latitude features much harsher temperatures in the winter. Most of Northern Europe isn't like most of Siberia or Canada (e.g. Berlin where I live is at the same latitude as Newfoundland. Toronto is almost 9 degrees further south. Winters are mild here, summers quite hot and humid. The reason for that is the gulf stream which works by hot water flowing towards the arctic, cooling down there and then flowing back. So, we get a lot of hot tropical sea water that keeps things warm. What happens if the arctic water has a lot less ice in it and warms up? People have of course modeled that and one possible outcome is a mini ice age in Europe. Another possible outcome is accelerated melting of what remains of glaciers and return of some tropical flora and fauna that as evidenced by fossil remains, used to be common in Northern Europe. It all depends. Both have happened in the past. It's hard to predict based on a sample of one. And technically the dumping of epic amounts of CO2 in our atmosphere has not happened at this scale and speed before. One thing is certain, summers are getting quite toasty in Southern Europe. It's slowly turning more arid, dry, and hot and it isn't that nice of a vacation destination because of it. 32 degrees Celcius is pleasant. 42 degrees just isn't.

defrost 3y ago
>The reason for that is the gulf stream Or, perhaps not: The Source of Europe's Mild Climate The notion that the Gulf Stream is responsible for keeping Europe anomalously warm turns out to be a myth https://www.americanscientist.org/article/the-source-of-europes-mild-climate https://www.americanscientist.org/article/the-source-of-euro... For context this is mostly from Richard Seager from back in 2002 https://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/people/seager/ https://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/people/seager/ https://www.atmos.washington.edu/~david/Gulf.pdf https://www.atmos.washington.edu/~david/Gulf.pdf and there's still a consensus forming, but he has the chops and he has a point .. there are comparisons to be made to the Pacific North West and being on the trailing edge (spin wise) of a large continental mass.
- kayo_20211030 3y ago
  Both can be right. The heat budget of the NE Pacific ocean, without an equivalent to the Gulf Stream, may well explain the milder winters in Seattle, but the NE Atlantic's heat budget is still "goosed" by the Gulf Stream and mixing. The paper's argument doesn't engage that argument. It deals with atmospheric changes postulated as a consequence of freshwater anomalies caused by arctic melting.
  - defrost 3y ago
    Sure. The main point of interest here is that for a very long time the gulf stream alone has been the accepted common wisdom for a warm Europe. It's interesting that there's other credible factors, particularly with talk of potential gulf stream collapse.
fardinahsan 3y ago
Europe is to Eurasia what the Pacific NorthWest is to North America.

isodev 3y ago

That movie The Day After Tomorrow had a really cool visualisation for all that. The movie was released exactly 20 years ago...

hef19898 3y ago
Didn't the world freeze over in that film?
- isodev 3y ago
  Indeed, it started a new ice age in the movie. I think the general lesson was that disruptions to currents gets us major headaches.