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It is overwhelmingly likely the US will never have a draft again. The nature of warfare has changed. You can't give someone a few weeks of basic and throw them

It is overwhelmingly likely the US will never have a draft again. The nature of warfare has changed. You can't give someone a few weeks of basic and throw them on the battlefield anymore. They need to be experts on a variety of technical topics as well as how to do combined arms maneuver in large formations. You need trained professionals. If the US is ever placed in a position so desperate that a draft is done again, rebuilding a new selective service administration overnight will be a trivial problem compared to everything else going on.

lesuorac 3y ago
You don't need to throw everybody onto the battlefield. The standing armed forces and reserve will need a lot of logistical support that can be done with little additional training. Plenty of people are forklift drivers and cooks in their day jobs. That said, it's not like the SSA is really needed. If a war got bad enough to need a draft I'm sure congress would let the IRS fork over a list of 18+ males. Or even say 18+ males with certain occupations on their tax returns (i.e. Doctors).
- stackskipton 3y ago
  Like most systems, on the surface it appears extremely simple. You start to look at the issue deeper and it becomes extremely complex. Start drafting all the doctors? Sure, what happens when you draft an ophthalmologist? Are they even useful for more than TikTok videos? What if they have asthma? How many Doctors can we take without crippling the home front? Furthermore, we start up a draft. We draft the guy who does calibrations for Maverick missiles in factory. Come to find out, it takes 3 months to train that guy and there are very few of them. It's also really important weapon system. Now what? SSA constantly holds mock drafts to try and answer all these questions.
Supermancho 3y ago
> It is overwhelmingly likely the US will never have a draft again. It's more likely that it will, the longer it exists. Saying "it will never", implies a pessimistic view of US durability. I think this is a fair interpretation, I can agree with. I understand this is not exactly what you meant.
- jasonwatkinspdx 3y ago
  The presumption that a draft is inevitable over growing time is exactly what I'm saying is nonsense.
  - Supermancho 3y ago
    I don't know why anyone would believe that, as I implied. The future is unknowable, but history has shown it takes less than a generation to militarize any nation. Assuming it will be different this time around, is not "overwhelmingly" likely.
niemandhier 3y ago
The war in Ukraine is a war of attrition. The need for human material is so large, that the Ulranians are considering forcing citizens that are in other countries to return and submit to the draft. Any war that will be fought between powers that can easily destroy each other will be fought in the Clausewitz way: Throw bodies at each other until one side is not willing to suffer the losses anymore. Should the US be China ever go to war, that will be the war that we will see. And since China would pick a battle ground south of the topic of cancer ( NATOs southern border) , that bodycount would mostly be US. FYI Hawai is south the topic of cancer.
- jasonwatkinspdx 3y ago
  The war in Ukraine reflects exactly what I said. They've run into a stalemate because both sides are heavily using conscripts and are incapable of doing maneuver warfare on a scale beyond a platoon. Please explain to me how the trench warfare in Ukraine is relevant to a potential war with China, which will be fought almost entirely by the Navy and Airforce. In fact, the Marines are so convinced of this they gave up all their tanks to reorganize as a more agile force that could island hop while deploying anti ship missiles. The idea that a war with China will require an infantry draft is preposterous. It's no longer 1940. Attempting any form of amphibious landing without naval and air superiority is suicide. That means if China ever lands boots on Taiwan, the war is already over, and a draft would serve no purpose.
  - niemandhier 3y ago
    Let me design my personal nightmare scenario: 1. Conservative forces in the southern states continue to claim that the Federal Government is trying to change the voting dynamics by naturalising immigrants. 2. Some form of legal argument is made against the legality of the vote of naturalised citizens in state level. 3. Hawaiian nationalists, secretly backed by China adopt that. 4. Some form of secession movement in Hawaii is formed. 5. China recognises independent Hawaii. 6. The US cannot accept to loose its influence in that part of the Ocean. 7. War by proxy, on US soil. This is all very unlikely, and would make a good plot for a Novel BUT: Historically the US has a much weaker claim on Hawaii ( which was annexed agains the will of the population) than China on Taiwan and there is already friction with the native Hawaiian population e.g. by Zuckerberg circumventing traditional local inheritance laws to build his mansion.
sofixa 3y ago
The Russian invasion of Ukraine implies otherwise. It's unlikely the US will find itself in such a conflict soon due to their technological advantage. However, multiple simultaneous engagements can stretch the available manpower to such an extent that a draft is needed.
- jasonwatkinspdx 3y ago
  The war in Ukraine reflects exactly what I said. They've run into a stalemate because both sides are heavily using conscripts and are incapable of doing maneuver warfare on a scale beyond a platoon. If the US military stepped into the Ukraine war, and there was somehow no possibility of nuclear escalation, the Russian military would be decimated within a matter of a week or two, and that's not overly optimistic thinking on my part. The incompetence of the VKS as well as Russia's mechanized formations has been gallingly clear.
ahartmetz 3y ago
I don't know - there were several effective land armies in WW2 - Germany, US, UK (though small), Russia from 1942 or so. They didn't have it much easier then. There was technology then, which was simpler but also more raw. What they did have was good officers, NCOs and training. I don't see reason to believe that a side in the Ukraine war has these.

lesuorac 3y ago

You don't need to throw everybody onto the battlefield. The standing armed forces and reserve will need a lot of logistical support that can be done with little additional training. Plenty of people are forklift drivers and cooks in their day jobs. That said, it's not like the SSA is really needed. If a war got bad enough to need a draft I'm sure congress would let the IRS fork over a list of 18+ males. Or even say 18+ males with certain occupations on their tax returns (i.e. Doctors).

stackskipton 3y ago
Like most systems, on the surface it appears extremely simple. You start to look at the issue deeper and it becomes extremely complex. Start drafting all the doctors? Sure, what happens when you draft an ophthalmologist? Are they even useful for more than TikTok videos? What if they have asthma? How many Doctors can we take without crippling the home front? Furthermore, we start up a draft. We draft the guy who does calibrations for Maverick missiles in factory. Come to find out, it takes 3 months to train that guy and there are very few of them. It's also really important weapon system. Now what? SSA constantly holds mock drafts to try and answer all these questions.

Supermancho 3y ago

> It is overwhelmingly likely the US will never have a draft again. It's more likely that it will, the longer it exists. Saying "it will never", implies a pessimistic view of US durability. I think this is a fair interpretation, I can agree with. I understand this is not exactly what you meant.

jasonwatkinspdx 3y ago
The presumption that a draft is inevitable over growing time is exactly what I'm saying is nonsense.
- Supermancho 3y ago
  I don't know why anyone would believe that, as I implied. The future is unknowable, but history has shown it takes less than a generation to militarize any nation. Assuming it will be different this time around, is not "overwhelmingly" likely.

niemandhier 3y ago

The war in Ukraine is a war of attrition. The need for human material is so large, that the Ulranians are considering forcing citizens that are in other countries to return and submit to the draft. Any war that will be fought between powers that can easily destroy each other will be fought in the Clausewitz way: Throw bodies at each other until one side is not willing to suffer the losses anymore. Should the US be China ever go to war, that will be the war that we will see. And since China would pick a battle ground south of the topic of cancer ( NATOs southern border) , that bodycount would mostly be US. FYI Hawai is south the topic of cancer.

jasonwatkinspdx 3y ago
The war in Ukraine reflects exactly what I said. They've run into a stalemate because both sides are heavily using conscripts and are incapable of doing maneuver warfare on a scale beyond a platoon. Please explain to me how the trench warfare in Ukraine is relevant to a potential war with China, which will be fought almost entirely by the Navy and Airforce. In fact, the Marines are so convinced of this they gave up all their tanks to reorganize as a more agile force that could island hop while deploying anti ship missiles. The idea that a war with China will require an infantry draft is preposterous. It's no longer 1940. Attempting any form of amphibious landing without naval and air superiority is suicide. That means if China ever lands boots on Taiwan, the war is already over, and a draft would serve no purpose.
- niemandhier 3y ago
  Let me design my personal nightmare scenario: 1. Conservative forces in the southern states continue to claim that the Federal Government is trying to change the voting dynamics by naturalising immigrants. 2. Some form of legal argument is made against the legality of the vote of naturalised citizens in state level. 3. Hawaiian nationalists, secretly backed by China adopt that. 4. Some form of secession movement in Hawaii is formed. 5. China recognises independent Hawaii. 6. The US cannot accept to loose its influence in that part of the Ocean. 7. War by proxy, on US soil. This is all very unlikely, and would make a good plot for a Novel BUT: Historically the US has a much weaker claim on Hawaii ( which was annexed agains the will of the population) than China on Taiwan and there is already friction with the native Hawaiian population e.g. by Zuckerberg circumventing traditional local inheritance laws to build his mansion.

sofixa 3y ago

The Russian invasion of Ukraine implies otherwise. It's unlikely the US will find itself in such a conflict soon due to their technological advantage. However, multiple simultaneous engagements can stretch the available manpower to such an extent that a draft is needed.

jasonwatkinspdx 3y ago
The war in Ukraine reflects exactly what I said. They've run into a stalemate because both sides are heavily using conscripts and are incapable of doing maneuver warfare on a scale beyond a platoon. If the US military stepped into the Ukraine war, and there was somehow no possibility of nuclear escalation, the Russian military would be decimated within a matter of a week or two, and that's not overly optimistic thinking on my part. The incompetence of the VKS as well as Russia's mechanized formations has been gallingly clear.

ahartmetz 3y ago

I don't know - there were several effective land armies in WW2 - Germany, US, UK (though small), Russia from 1942 or so. They didn't have it much easier then. There was technology then, which was simpler but also more raw. What they did have was good officers, NCOs and training. I don't see reason to believe that a side in the Ukraine war has these.