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Someone please explain to me how the math works here. $15k usd is insanely low, do they really have that economy of scale or is this a subsidized attack on majo

Someone please explain to me how the math works here. $15k usd is insanely low, do they really have that economy of scale or is this a subsidized attack on major car manufacturers, or is it both? Or is it something else?

NewJazz 3y ago
I think this is for the Chinese market only right now? Besides, 48 kWh battery is pretty small. Newer Chevy Bolts pack on 66 kWhs, and those vehicles are priced pretty low as-is. As with most standard models, I'd bet there are a lot of features you'd want requiring an upgrade to a higher trim.
- smcin 3y ago
  Claimed CLTC (China light-duty vehicle test cycle) ranges: - with 48 kWh battery pack, up to 261 ml (420 km) - with 57.6 kWh battery pack 316 mi (510 km) - there is also apparently a 71.7 kWh battery pack option CLTC ranges are supposed to be ~35% higher than EPA ranges. Can't find warranty length or details.
  - KennyBlanken 3y ago
    > CLTC ranges are supposed to be ~35% higher than EPA ranges. A very polite way of saying "the usual specification-bullshitting the Chinese are famous for."
    - smcin 3y ago
      I didn't say that and I don't think it's helpful to use language like that. The EU quoted ranges are also higher than the EPA ranges: > "The European Union + some other territories (Turkey, Israel) rely on WLTP (Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicles Test Procedure), which replaced the wildly optimistic and now obsolete NEDC (New European Driving Cycle) in 2019. The CLTC (China Light Duty Vehicle Test Cycle) replaced the NEDC in China and is usually the most unrealistically optimistic of the three. ...To make things a little confusing, though, not every automaker applies the results from the tests equally.* https://insideevs.com/features/343231/heres-how-to-calculate-conflicting-ev-range-test-cycles-epa-wltp-nedc/ https://insideevs.com/features/343231/heres-how-to-calculate...
  - seec 3y ago
    If that’s accurate they are very close to the range of a compact gas car, at around the same price. Factor in the gas cost (especially in Europe) and it’s a pretty great deal. I hope they get to export them in EU to disrupt the market a bit…
- no_wizard 3y ago
  They claim to have a version that gets you 512km per charge. Thats 316 miles (give or take head math could be off)
  - NewJazz 3y ago
    Yes, and that version won't cost the price in the title. Market segmentation.
- acdha 3y ago
  How much does it weigh? The battery size expectations in the American market are skewed because the manufacturers have been chasing the high-profit margin SUV market with the idea that everyone is taking a huge vehicle on all-day drives. Something sized for normal urban usage is far more efficient.
  - shiroiushi 3y ago
    It would be more efficient, but that's not what American drivers want. They want a huge, luxurious vehicle they can take on all-day drives, even though they pretty much never do, and just use it to go to work by themselves or get groceries. They they cry and moan about how much new cars cost and how much fuel costs...
    - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
      America isn't singular. The rich buy luxury new cars, the poor buy luxury used cars. The problem is that doesn't leave much of a market for economy new cars. A lot of SEA countries as well as Russia's FarEast have limited used Japanese imports (Japan makes it hard to own a car past 5-6 years) because the used Japanese cars can destroy their new car market.
      - g-b-r 3y ago
        No, many if not most older people prefer first-hand cars, even if they're small and look dumb (at least where I live)
MrFoof 3y ago
I agree the math is a bit off, so let's look at the percentages. The current Toyota Corolla, in 3-box sedan form, starts at 119,800 RMB in China. The BYD Qin is also a 3-box sedan, similar dimensions, but starts at 109,800 RMB, or 8.4% cheaper. To compare this directly to the US, a 2024 Corolla starts at $22,050. So this would be like launching the Qin in the US at $19,995. If you did the same percentages it'd be $20,210, but "$19,995" gets you the "Under $20,000" which would be extremely noteworthy in the US where there's not much left under $20K. They'd probably be willing to eat $215/unit of margin at launch just to be able to run with "Starting at under $20K" in advertisements until the sales really roll in, then raise the price a bit 2 years later to get the margin they wanted.
huytersd 3y ago
Making things is not always all that expensive if you don’t have to pay a lot for labor. 18650 batteries can be produced for $0.75/cell at the absolute cheapest. A 48kWh pack has about 5000 18650s, so thats ~$3750. The rest of it probably costs $5000 so they still have a decent margin.
missedthecue 3y ago
My neighbor in a developing country bought a brand new Hyundai sedan ICE for $10k. Power windows, AC, rearview camera and infotainment... For some reason cars cost a lot in the US. Even with safety standards and features.
- glitchc 3y ago
  In a word: Tariffs
  - gruez 3y ago
    Source? I searched around and couldn't find the tariff rate on sedans. There's a bunch of results for Trump's proposed 25% tariff and existing "chicken tax" on 25% for trucks, but nothing for sedans. Moreover, even if we go with the rate for trucks, that would mean that the truck would cost 12.5k, which is more but still in the "ridiculously cheap" price range.
    - glitchc 3y ago
      Right here, search for "Dutiable Entry": https://www.cbp.gov/trade/basic-import-export/importing-car#:~:text=Dutiable%20Entry,Motorcycles%202.4%25%20or%20free https://www.cbp.gov/trade/basic-import-export/importing-car#... Although, notably it's not as high as I expected.
- alphabettsy 3y ago
  I’d be interested to see if it would pass a US crash test. Airbags don’t do much if the structure fails catastrophically.

NewJazz 3y ago

I think this is for the Chinese market only right now? Besides, 48 kWh battery is pretty small. Newer Chevy Bolts pack on 66 kWhs, and those vehicles are priced pretty low as-is. As with most standard models, I'd bet there are a lot of features you'd want requiring an upgrade to a higher trim.

smcin 3y ago
Claimed CLTC (China light-duty vehicle test cycle) ranges: - with 48 kWh battery pack, up to 261 ml (420 km) - with 57.6 kWh battery pack 316 mi (510 km) - there is also apparently a 71.7 kWh battery pack option CLTC ranges are supposed to be ~35% higher than EPA ranges. Can't find warranty length or details.
- KennyBlanken 3y ago
  > CLTC ranges are supposed to be ~35% higher than EPA ranges. A very polite way of saying "the usual specification-bullshitting the Chinese are famous for."
  - smcin 3y ago
    I didn't say that and I don't think it's helpful to use language like that. The EU quoted ranges are also higher than the EPA ranges: > "The European Union + some other territories (Turkey, Israel) rely on WLTP (Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicles Test Procedure), which replaced the wildly optimistic and now obsolete NEDC (New European Driving Cycle) in 2019. The CLTC (China Light Duty Vehicle Test Cycle) replaced the NEDC in China and is usually the most unrealistically optimistic of the three. ...To make things a little confusing, though, not every automaker applies the results from the tests equally.* https://insideevs.com/features/343231/heres-how-to-calculate-conflicting-ev-range-test-cycles-epa-wltp-nedc/ https://insideevs.com/features/343231/heres-how-to-calculate...
- seec 3y ago
  If that’s accurate they are very close to the range of a compact gas car, at around the same price. Factor in the gas cost (especially in Europe) and it’s a pretty great deal. I hope they get to export them in EU to disrupt the market a bit…
no_wizard 3y ago
They claim to have a version that gets you 512km per charge. Thats 316 miles (give or take head math could be off)
- NewJazz 3y ago
  Yes, and that version won't cost the price in the title. Market segmentation.
acdha 3y ago
How much does it weigh? The battery size expectations in the American market are skewed because the manufacturers have been chasing the high-profit margin SUV market with the idea that everyone is taking a huge vehicle on all-day drives. Something sized for normal urban usage is far more efficient.
- shiroiushi 3y ago
  It would be more efficient, but that's not what American drivers want. They want a huge, luxurious vehicle they can take on all-day drives, even though they pretty much never do, and just use it to go to work by themselves or get groceries. They they cry and moan about how much new cars cost and how much fuel costs...
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    America isn't singular. The rich buy luxury new cars, the poor buy luxury used cars. The problem is that doesn't leave much of a market for economy new cars. A lot of SEA countries as well as Russia's FarEast have limited used Japanese imports (Japan makes it hard to own a car past 5-6 years) because the used Japanese cars can destroy their new car market.
    - g-b-r 3y ago
      No, many if not most older people prefer first-hand cars, even if they're small and look dumb (at least where I live)

MrFoof 3y ago

I agree the math is a bit off, so let's look at the percentages. The current Toyota Corolla, in 3-box sedan form, starts at 119,800 RMB in China. The BYD Qin is also a 3-box sedan, similar dimensions, but starts at 109,800 RMB, or 8.4% cheaper. To compare this directly to the US, a 2024 Corolla starts at $22,050. So this would be like launching the Qin in the US at $19,995. If you did the same percentages it'd be $20,210, but "$19,995" gets you the "Under $20,000" which would be extremely noteworthy in the US where there's not much left under $20K. They'd probably be willing to eat $215/unit of margin at launch just to be able to run with "Starting at under $20K" in advertisements until the sales really roll in, then raise the price a bit 2 years later to get the margin they wanted.

huytersd 3y ago

Making things is not always all that expensive if you don’t have to pay a lot for labor. 18650 batteries can be produced for $0.75/cell at the absolute cheapest. A 48kWh pack has about 5000 18650s, so thats ~$3750. The rest of it probably costs $5000 so they still have a decent margin.

missedthecue 3y ago

My neighbor in a developing country bought a brand new Hyundai sedan ICE for $10k. Power windows, AC, rearview camera and infotainment... For some reason cars cost a lot in the US. Even with safety standards and features.

glitchc 3y ago
In a word: Tariffs
- gruez 3y ago
  Source? I searched around and couldn't find the tariff rate on sedans. There's a bunch of results for Trump's proposed 25% tariff and existing "chicken tax" on 25% for trucks, but nothing for sedans. Moreover, even if we go with the rate for trucks, that would mean that the truck would cost 12.5k, which is more but still in the "ridiculously cheap" price range.
  - glitchc 3y ago
    Right here, search for "Dutiable Entry": https://www.cbp.gov/trade/basic-import-export/importing-car#:~:text=Dutiable%20Entry,Motorcycles%202.4%25%20or%20free https://www.cbp.gov/trade/basic-import-export/importing-car#... Although, notably it's not as high as I expected.
alphabettsy 3y ago
I’d be interested to see if it would pass a US crash test. Airbags don’t do much if the structure fails catastrophically.