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I'm sure people felt similarly when the first sewing machines were invented. And of course, sewing machines did completely irreversibly change the course of hum
by feoren 3y ago
I'm sure people felt similarly when the first sewing machines were invented. And of course, sewing machines did completely irreversibly change the course of humanity and altered (and even destroyed) many lives. But ultimately, most humans managed, and -- in the end (though that end may be farther away than our own lifetimes) -- benefited.
I'm not sure you're actually under-estimating the impact of this AI meteor that's currently hitting humanity, because it is a huge impact. But I think you're grossly under-estimating the vastness of human endeavors, ingenuity, and resilience. Ultimately we're still talking about the bottom falling out of the creative arts: storytelling, images, movies, even porn -- all of that is about to be incredibly easy to create mediocre versions of. Anyone who thrived on making mediocre art, and anyone who thrived second-hand on that industry, is going to have a very bad time. And that's a lot of people, and it's awful. But we're talking about a complete shift in the creative industries in a world where most people drive trucks and work in restaurants or retail. Yes, many of those industries may also get replaced by AI one day, and rapidly at that, but not by ChatGPT or Sora.
Of course you're right that our near future may suddenly be an AI company hegemony, replacing the current tech hegemony, which replaced the physical retail hegemony, which replaced the manufacturing hegemony, which replaced the railway hegemony, which replaced the slave-owning plantation hegemony, which replaced the guilds hegemony, which replaced the ...
You're also under-estimating how much business can actually be relocated outside the U.S., and also how much revolution can be wrought by a completely disenfranchised generation.
- parhamn 3y agoI get really surprised when seemingly rational people compare AGI to sewing machines and cars. Is it just an instinct to look for some historic analogy, regardless of its relevance?
- ThrowawayTestr 3y agoIt's pattern recognition. Machines replace human labor, people get sacred, the world doesn't end, we move on. ML is no different.
- azan_ 3y agowhen machines reduced physical labor, displaced people moved to intelectual and creative jobs; tell me, what kind of work will be left for human if ai will be better at intellectual and creative tasks?
- ThrowawayTestr 3y agoIf there truly is no work to be done, we can finally start living.
- lurkingllama 3y agoWho's going to pay for you to start living?
- ThrowawayTestr 3y agoIf the robots are doing everything why does the concept of "paying" need to exist?
- feoren 3y ago100% agree in principle, but the unfortunate answer to your question is: because the people who already own everything won't allow that to happen. Or, at least, not without a huge fight.
- feoren 3y agoI am absolutely not comparing AGI to sewing machines and cars. I am comparing ChatGPT and Sora to sewing machines and cars. My claim is that these are incredibly disruptive technologies to a limited scope. ChatGPT and SORA are closer to sewing machines than they are to AGI. We're nowhere near AGI yet. Remember that the original claim was that all 6-year-olds today will be unemployable. That's a pretty crazy claim IMO.
- brikym 3y agoThe problem with applying the horse-automobile argument to AI is that this time we don’t have anywhere to go. People moved from legwork to handwork to thinking work and now what? We’ve pretty much covered all the parts of the body. Unless you like wearing goggles all day nobody has managed to replicate an attractive person yet so maybe attractive people will have the edge in the new world where thinking and labour are both valueless.
- arnaudsm 3y agoAI generated influencers are a thing, even on OF nowadays. Our last value will reside in "human authenticity", but maybe that can be faked too