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Someone just noticed Apple’s decades old SOP. Watch the aggregate fumble about, fail over and over, then take the few ideas that survive rapid, aimless iteratio

Someone just noticed Apple’s decades old SOP. Watch the aggregate fumble about, fail over and over, then take the few ideas that survive rapid, aimless iteration attempts and add the last mile of polish. A decade of crappy Palm, WinCE, and easily forgotten Java based mobile devices came and went before iPhone. They know what software people refuse to accept; it’s the hardware experience that matters and they’ll wait until the hardware is there. Modern hardware is responsible for AI, more reliable networks, and the rest of modern compute. Has little to do with the bloated software stacks we git pull into the data center Edit: Also consider that Intel and Apple don’t just make a consumer device. They design an advanced manufacturing pipeline. The difference between print(“hello world”) and for index in array: print(contents of index) That’s the basis of their value and why they are propped up by government and why software focused startups will always just be pump and dump schemes.

theturtletalks 3y ago
Apple is the master of the second mover advantage. Let the existing companies burn money in R&D, but closely monitor how customers perceive their products. What pain points exist that the current companies haven't addressed? What are the pitfalls? The first mover advantage gives you a chance to get most of the market share, but with Apple's walled garden, they don't need the first mover advantage to do that.
- MBCook 3y ago
  Even when they didn’t have that garden. Look at the iPod. Other MP3 players existed, but flash media was too small. Other hard drive players existed, they were too big. And both had bad interfaces (by Apple standards). Apple didn’t show up until they could meet all their goals. They could have made a phone sooner, it wouldn’t have been the iPhone. They could have made a headset sooner, it wouldn’t be the Vision Pro. They set their standards for what’s necessary and wait to be able to deliver that. The first mover rarely wins in the long run.
  - bayindirh 3y ago
    Apple cooks the tech required for their vision behind closed doors. Then release it when it's ready by their standards. It's a bit like Debian*, but closed source. *: It's ready when it's ready.
  - rabbitofdeath 3y ago
    I think you are spot on - looking back at all this its really interesting -like what on earth was Apple thinking when the Motorola ROKR came out? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motorola_ROKR https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motorola_ROKR
    - itronitron 3y ago
      From the link you provide... >> Because of the iPod Nano unveiling on the same day, relations between Motorola and Apple were strained and Motorola CEO Ed Zander later accused Apple of purposely undercutting the Rokr. Apple probably saw it as an opportunity for free iTunes and Nano advertising.
      - MBCook 3y ago
        I don’t know about advertising. But I would be willing to bet money that Steve Jobs chose that day for the Nano to do exactly what Zander thought: screw them over. They (whoever ‘they’ is) caused the phone to be terrible even though it had the iTunes name on it. So Jobs got revenge, as he always did if he could.
    - MBCook 3y ago
      I don’t remember the story of how Apple got involved in that, but it was incredibly clear when it was released that Steve Jobs hated the thing. Even when he demoed it on stage. Perhaps they agreed to a partnership and didn’t realize that Motorola and the carriers would ruin it? Or perhaps it was some sort of “we’ll do this to learn some of the business” kind of a thing? I’d love to know more of the story behind how it started and it’s development.
  - roody15 3y ago
- nprateem 3y ago
  Except with gen AI the interface is text and there are multiple companies that have equally acceptable products. Either apple solves hallucination or makes some other AI breakthrough (i doubt it since the best researchers are probably at the hottest AI companies), or else it's just losing out as other companies capture a new market. I think the second mover will have a huge disadvantage here as companies integrate the first mover into their products. Apple will be able to do on-device AI, but I can't see that being a game changer unless paired with AR or some other new tech.
  - cynicalsecurity 3y ago
    "Hallucinations" can't be solved, they are there by design. This is how people's mind works too.
    - nprateem 3y ago
      Some answers are subjective and rely on justification/argument for support. Provided the argument is sound that's as good as we'll ever get. But it's farcical to claim AI could never always be objectively right.
oldpersonintx 3y ago
Apple's real SOP is to make white males believe in the inevitability of Apple cultural dominance so they feel inclined to buy anything with the logo on it as a signal i.e. you convinced yourself Vision Pro was great before ever using it
- suoduandao3 3y ago
  I don't 'do' Apple, neither do the vast majority of my friends. But, having used a borrowed mac product in the past, I do recognize that using them is just... pleasant. Not enough to justify the higher price point, but the superior user experience isn't just marketing.
- pixl97 3y ago
  >Apple customers demographics from 2019 show that about 51% of all iOS users were female, while 43% were male. Moreover, the percentage of female users in the US was 58%. While it’s a small majority, it is the only major smartphone vendor with a majority of female users. Strage to point out white males in your statement.
- Vt71fcAqt7 3y ago
  The Vision Pro's marketing doesn't suggest they are targeting white males. For example their landing page[0] features zero of them. [0] https://www.apple.com/apple-vision-pro/ https://www.apple.com/apple-vision-pro/ https://web.archive.org/web/20240207021726/https://www.apple.com/apple-vision-pro/ https://web.archive.org/web/20240207021726/https://www.apple...
- astrange 3y ago
  Among large countries, the one with the highest Apple market share is Japan.
adventured 3y ago
It's not the hardware, it's the combination of good hardware and software. That's paraphrasing Steve Jobs. He also stated that one of the primary advantages Apple had was software with better usability, generally higher quality software. > Modern hardware is responsible for AI No, again, it's the hardware and software. Tensorflow is what formally sparked the AI boom that we're still rolling on, and of course it needed the underlying hardware. The hardware does nothing without the software. Python and Linux are good software, to name two.
louthy 3y ago
> A decade of crappy Palm, WinCE, and easily forgotten Java based mobile devices came and went before iPhone Including the Apple Newton, arguably the first handheld device.
- bombcar 3y ago
  I still think the iPhone was "safer" than all those others (every single one of those listed had its ardent defenders, mind you) because so many people had iPods and it was "an iPod that can make phone calls" - so there was less risk buying it, especially after the price drop to $399 for the 8 GB (you could pick up 4GB quite cheap, then). The iPod classic was $349 (for many more songs, admittedly), but the prices were comparable.
dang 3y ago
Ok, but please edit out swipes at other users ("Someone just noticed"). This is in the site guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html.

theturtletalks 3y ago

Apple is the master of the second mover advantage. Let the existing companies burn money in R&D, but closely monitor how customers perceive their products. What pain points exist that the current companies haven't addressed? What are the pitfalls? The first mover advantage gives you a chance to get most of the market share, but with Apple's walled garden, they don't need the first mover advantage to do that.

MBCook 3y ago
Even when they didn’t have that garden. Look at the iPod. Other MP3 players existed, but flash media was too small. Other hard drive players existed, they were too big. And both had bad interfaces (by Apple standards). Apple didn’t show up until they could meet all their goals. They could have made a phone sooner, it wouldn’t have been the iPhone. They could have made a headset sooner, it wouldn’t be the Vision Pro. They set their standards for what’s necessary and wait to be able to deliver that. The first mover rarely wins in the long run.
- bayindirh 3y ago
  Apple cooks the tech required for their vision behind closed doors. Then release it when it's ready by their standards. It's a bit like Debian*, but closed source. *: It's ready when it's ready.
- rabbitofdeath 3y ago
  I think you are spot on - looking back at all this its really interesting -like what on earth was Apple thinking when the Motorola ROKR came out? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motorola_ROKR https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motorola_ROKR
  - itronitron 3y ago
    From the link you provide... >> Because of the iPod Nano unveiling on the same day, relations between Motorola and Apple were strained and Motorola CEO Ed Zander later accused Apple of purposely undercutting the Rokr. Apple probably saw it as an opportunity for free iTunes and Nano advertising.
    - MBCook 3y ago
      I don’t know about advertising. But I would be willing to bet money that Steve Jobs chose that day for the Nano to do exactly what Zander thought: screw them over. They (whoever ‘they’ is) caused the phone to be terrible even though it had the iTunes name on it. So Jobs got revenge, as he always did if he could.
  - MBCook 3y ago
    I don’t remember the story of how Apple got involved in that, but it was incredibly clear when it was released that Steve Jobs hated the thing. Even when he demoed it on stage. Perhaps they agreed to a partnership and didn’t realize that Motorola and the carriers would ruin it? Or perhaps it was some sort of “we’ll do this to learn some of the business” kind of a thing? I’d love to know more of the story behind how it started and it’s development.
- roody15 3y ago
nprateem 3y ago
Except with gen AI the interface is text and there are multiple companies that have equally acceptable products. Either apple solves hallucination or makes some other AI breakthrough (i doubt it since the best researchers are probably at the hottest AI companies), or else it's just losing out as other companies capture a new market. I think the second mover will have a huge disadvantage here as companies integrate the first mover into their products. Apple will be able to do on-device AI, but I can't see that being a game changer unless paired with AR or some other new tech.
- cynicalsecurity 3y ago
  "Hallucinations" can't be solved, they are there by design. This is how people's mind works too.
  - nprateem 3y ago
    Some answers are subjective and rely on justification/argument for support. Provided the argument is sound that's as good as we'll ever get. But it's farcical to claim AI could never always be objectively right.

oldpersonintx 3y ago

Apple's real SOP is to make white males believe in the inevitability of Apple cultural dominance so they feel inclined to buy anything with the logo on it as a signal i.e. you convinced yourself Vision Pro was great before ever using it

suoduandao3 3y ago
I don't 'do' Apple, neither do the vast majority of my friends. But, having used a borrowed mac product in the past, I do recognize that using them is just... pleasant. Not enough to justify the higher price point, but the superior user experience isn't just marketing.
pixl97 3y ago
>Apple customers demographics from 2019 show that about 51% of all iOS users were female, while 43% were male. Moreover, the percentage of female users in the US was 58%. While it’s a small majority, it is the only major smartphone vendor with a majority of female users. Strage to point out white males in your statement.
Vt71fcAqt7 3y ago
The Vision Pro's marketing doesn't suggest they are targeting white males. For example their landing page[0] features zero of them. [0] https://www.apple.com/apple-vision-pro/ https://www.apple.com/apple-vision-pro/ https://web.archive.org/web/20240207021726/https://www.apple.com/apple-vision-pro/ https://web.archive.org/web/20240207021726/https://www.apple...
astrange 3y ago
Among large countries, the one with the highest Apple market share is Japan.

adventured 3y ago

It's not the hardware, it's the combination of good hardware and software. That's paraphrasing Steve Jobs. He also stated that one of the primary advantages Apple had was software with better usability, generally higher quality software. > Modern hardware is responsible for AI No, again, it's the hardware and software. Tensorflow is what formally sparked the AI boom that we're still rolling on, and of course it needed the underlying hardware. The hardware does nothing without the software. Python and Linux are good software, to name two.

louthy 3y ago

> A decade of crappy Palm, WinCE, and easily forgotten Java based mobile devices came and went before iPhone Including the Apple Newton, arguably the first handheld device.

bombcar 3y ago
I still think the iPhone was "safer" than all those others (every single one of those listed had its ardent defenders, mind you) because so many people had iPods and it was "an iPod that can make phone calls" - so there was less risk buying it, especially after the price drop to $399 for the 8 GB (you could pick up 4GB quite cheap, then). The iPod classic was $349 (for many more songs, admittedly), but the prices were comparable.

dang 3y ago

Ok, but please edit out swipes at other users ("Someone just noticed"). This is in the site guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html.