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$1.3B seems like a lot of money but it isn't for a car factory, especially spread over many years. For context: Tesla is guiding for $10+B a year capex spendin
by kjksf 3y ago
$1.3B seems like a lot of money but it isn't for a car factory, especially spread over many years.
For context: Tesla is guiding for $10+B a year capex spending for the next 3 years.
Nevada factory took $6.2B and Tesla plans to spend additional $3.6B
Toyota is still under-investing in EV. $1.3B is nothing.
https://www.tesla.com/blog/continuing-our-investment-nevada https://www.tesla.com/blog/continuing-our-investment-nevada
- _ea1k 3y agoYeah, it must be less than 1% of revenue. Probably a lot less, given that it is likely spread over several years.
- jgalt212 3y agoIt feels "right-sized" given Toyota's approach towards EV's and the slowing adoption rate of EVs in the US.
- dumbo-octopus 3y agoToyota initiated the hybrid as a modern platform, and they continue make the best selling hybrid in the world (Prius). But since they don't want to be in the business of making undesirable vehicles with short lifespans that require expensive maintenance, they have stuck to hybrids rather than full electric and all the extremely costly low lifespan batteries that go into them. Speaking as a 2004 Prius daily driver, the Toyota approach works. And I guarantee I'm a hell of a lot more "environmentally friendly" than anyone who commissioned literal tons of metal to be dug out of the earth to make their "green" new Tesla.
- throw0101b 3y ago> Toyota initiated the hybrid as a modern platform […] E.g., the first Prius was released in 1997: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Prius_(XW10) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Prius_(XW10)
- brandonagr2 3y agoYou aren't more environmentally friendly, in less than 2 years an EV is net positive https://www.tesla.com/impact https://www.tesla.com/impact (see page 22) And that's not even mentioning that in 20 years we won't be mining materials out of the ground anymore, will just be recycling existing battery materials
- explaininjs 3y agoParent stated they drive a Prius, which is not the "standard EV" that article mentions. They slate 24mpg, which is laughable: that's around what my old gas guzzling V8 got, and they call it the norm? The Prius gets high 40's easily. But it's a EV fluff piece published by "the EV company", one can't expect scientific integrity. In fact, reading through the lines of Tesla's own fluff piece, in places like China the Prius is net-environmentally positive even year by year as compared to the Model 3. China has the most emissions of any country, so that's a pretty big caveat to simply ignore. But again, fluff piece by the fluff company.
- sndean 3y agoOP continuing to drive a 20-year-old car (of any kind, not just a hybrid) is likely more environmentally friendly than buying a new car every few years. They're doing the reduce part of "reduce, reuse, recycle." A long-lasting, low-maintenance hybrid has a good argument for being very environmentally friendly.
- _aavaa_ 3y ago> OP continuing to drive a 20-year-old car (of any kind, not just a hybrid) is likely more environmentally friendly than buying a new car every few years. Sure, but that isn't the comparison here. Buying a new EV and then holding on to it for 20 years will be even more environmentally friendly.
- calfuris 3y agoCombustion-powered vehicles are something of an exception, because only a small fraction of their pollution is associated with their creation. Buying a new car every few years probably isn't optimal, but operating an ICE vehicle for decades probably isn't optimal either.
- belltaco 3y ago> But since they don't want to be in the business of making undesirable vehicles with short lifespans that require expensive maintenance Then why did they go all in on hydrogen cars? https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/analysis-it-is-now-almost-14-times-more-expensive-to-drive-a-toyota-hydrogen-car-in-california-than-a-comparable-tesla-ev/2-1-1519315 https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/analysis-it-is-now...
- enragedcacti 3y agoBecause the Japanese government bet big on hydrogen and heavily subsidized the industry. Also, is there any evidence that hydrogen vehicles have short lifespan or require expensive maintenance? I don't disagree about how undesirable they are based on fuel cost but its hard to suss out how much of that is just based on extremely low production.
- dumbo-octopus 3y ago"All in" is a very strange way to describe a multinational corporation producing in the single digit thousands of an item. They tried something, it hasn't panned out yet, they're sticking to what they know works in the mean time.
- WorldMaker 3y ago> But since they don't want to be in the business of making undesirable vehicles with short lifespans that require expensive maintenance The average BEV is lasting just as long as any other car on the road and the used market is not filled with "broken EVs requiring expensive maintenance". The opposite seems to statistically be the case: the used market for EVs is "barren" because the cars don't need expensive maintenance and often stay with their first owners for longer and when they do move to new owners don't often go through the traditional used market because they don't need as much maintenance. You've been lead to believe some interesting misinformation. Toyota themselves have been a source of some of that misinformation, which is further unhelpful.
- seadan83 3y agoDo you have citations? I can think of alternative & plausible explanations: - the used car industry is just barren post-pandemic. Prices are up and inventory is super low [1] - EVs are generally not that old! Why put a BEV up as a used car when it's just a few years old? The average age of a used car is 6.1 years (according to CBC in Sep-2023) [2]. Further, that 'used car' age is up from 4 years, which further indicates the first point that the used car market is very short on supply. Most of Tesla's sales have been in just the last 4 years [3], Tesla represents a lot of BEV car sales in the US (going from memory, it was about 75% and is down to around 55%). In such a short amount of time, most BEVs are essentially still brand new. Thus, BEVs not being in the 'used' market is somewhat expected since they are half the age of the average used car, most of them are under 4 years old. Thus, their lack of presence in the used car market could easily be more a function of their age (relatively brand new) compared to: "don't often go through the traditional used market because they don't need as much maintenance." [1] https://www.cbtnews.com/the-state-of-used-car-prices-why-are-certain-car-brands-so-high/ https://www.cbtnews.com/the-state-of-used-car-prices-why-are... [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/26/3-things-to-consider-when-buying-a-used-car.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/26/3-things-to-consider-when-bu... [3] https://cleantechnica.com/2023/04/22/tesla-just-passed-4-million-cumulative-sales-charts/ https://cleantechnica.com/2023/04/22/tesla-just-passed-4-mil...
- WorldMaker 3y ago
- mrguyorama 3y agoYour 2004 Prius has a lead acid battery, hows that for "low lifespan" battery?
- suoduandao3 3y agoI do believe that Tesla's success in the last decade was in large part due to the fact it was the only technology company that could use all the money people were throwing at technology companies.
- anonylizard 3y agoSoftbank's belief was that throwing capital would just make things work. But from wework to many other of their startups shows its not the case. Telsa had to deploy their capital very efficiently in a capital intensive industry. Say their bet on the Shanghai factory, despite obvious IP leak risks and spawning deadly competitors like BYD, was their only choice to reach scale at a low cost.
- thfuran 3y ago>Telsa had to deploy their capital very efficiently in a capital intensive industry Surely that's an easier task than deploying a similar amount of capital in an industry that isn't capital heavy.
- lvturner 3y agoSpawning? BYD was founded in 1995 and its automotive subsidiary 2003 (via aquisition)
- fnordpiglet 3y agoBYD didn’t really differentiate itself until starting 2019, which is about a year after Tesla would have had to complete its forced technology transfer program to establish Tesla Shanghai. BYDs first new generation EV concept car in 2019, and production of the Seal and other major EV products (which looks like clones of Model 3s, etc) didn’t start in earnest until 2022. They changed their logo to be a stylistic copy of the Tesla logo in 2022. Yes, their bus and ICE lines long predated, and they had hybrids built out of forced technology transfers from Toyota. But their EV lines that are so popular didn’t start until after Tesla acquired their corporate license and rights to build their gigafactory. If you’ve done business in China you know forced technology transfers and training of competitive local workforces is contingent on those stages. The factory itself and its parts supply chain would also have required transfer of technical knowledge, skill, and local supplier ability without exclusivity. It’s not a knock on Chinese people to say the Chinese government is intertwined in Chinese industry (it is communist after all and ultimately the means of production is a public trust), or that there is no “fairness” by western standards in Chinese industry and governmental influence. But it’s also disingenuous to believe BYD pivoted to a full on global Tesla competitor in 4 years from being a low end hybrid and bus manufacturer based purely on their tenacity and innovation, neither of which is BYD known for in its history (having been propped up as a money loser for decades by the government and facing a lot of intellectual property lawsuits from Toyota, Mercedes, Renault, and others throughout its history). It’s too implausible to take seriously and there’s no reason to be credulous.
- itsoktocry 3y ago>For context: Tesla is guiding for $10+B a year capex spending for the next 3 years. I know people around these parts think that Tesla has uncovered some magical factory building ability, but can you even consider the fact that maybe Toyota knows what they are doing? >Toyota is still under-investing in EV. $1.3B is nothing. This is one factory.
- brandonagr2 3y agoWhat about Toyota's plans makes you think they will ever catch up to everyone else with EVs?
- Retric 3y agoThey don’t need to innovate just execute and Toyota is all about execution. Build a car people want and let sales drive future investments.
- TheCleric 3y agoYeah I wouldn’t bet against Toyota in a game of catch up. They’ve proven over and over that their real strength is in doing what other companies have proven out and doing it better and more efficiently.
- belltaco 3y agoExecution like the wheels falling off their flagship all-ev car? After they've been making cars for 85+ years. https://www.carsales.com.au/editorial/details/wheels-falling-off-toyotas-first-ev-136259/ https://www.carsales.com.au/editorial/details/wheels-falling... https://www.motortrend.com/news/toyotas-fix-bz4x-disconnecting-wheels-recall https://www.motortrend.com/news/toyotas-fix-bz4x-disconnecti... That doesn't get the headlines and attenion that a icon enlargement software update on Tesla does on HN.
- throwup238 3y agoTeslas Have a Minor Issue Where the Wheels Fly Off While Driving, Documents Show - https://futurism.com/tesla-flaws-failures-blame-drivers https://futurism.com/tesla-flaws-failures-blame-drivers It's really easy to cherry pick problems when someone makes millions of cars every year.
- pawptart 3y agoAs someone who lives a few miles from Georgetown, KY, it's important to note that this factory already exists and sounds like they are (partially) re-tooling it to begin EV production. So that might explain the dollar figure.
- jmoak3 3y agoLouisville checking in, spent a lot of time in Georgetown and can confirm this is likely just more work on the Camry plant. Toyota has been good to the area. Off topic, but is there a popular tech meetup in the state? Moved back a year and some change ago and would love to get more involved.
- richiebful1 3y agoI'd be curious too. I'm in Powell County, so the "greater Lexington area". I'm seeing these in Lex: - PHP user group (https://www.meetup.com/kentucky-php-user-group/events/298973355/ https://www.meetup.com/kentucky-php-user-group/events/298973...) - Bluegrass Developers Guild (https://www.meetup.com/the-bluegrass-developers-guild/events/298232154/ https://www.meetup.com/the-bluegrass-developers-guild/events...) Also, being an early employee at a startup, I've been attending the rare Startup Lexington event I can make it to. Feel free to contact my email (in profile) if you want to connect
- warnhardcode 3y agoAnother Kentuckian in tech here. Thanks for the list. A friend recently attended https://13layers.com/event/lextalktechjan24/ https://13layers.com/event/lextalktechjan24/ and said it was a good mix of talks. I think they're quarterly and it's on my list to follow up. I also lurk on these slacks: bluegrass-dev.slack (same folks as the meetup I assume), Louisville Tech louisville.slack, and startuplexington.slack Hope we keep this ball rolling a bit longer on meetups and gatherings both in person and online.
- J0EKR 3y agoWe have been working hard to grow the bluegrass tech community (mainly focused on Lexington area right now). The following are a good place to start: - https://lextalk.tech/ https://lextalk.tech/ - should be another one in April or may - https://www.meetup.com/The-Bluegrass-Developers-Guild https://www.meetup.com/The-Bluegrass-Developers-Guild on Meetup - lots of good events here - https://www.bluegrassdevs.org/ https://www.bluegrassdevs.org/ - join our slack I really suggest coffee and code. It is super chill and a great way to meet folks around the area: https://meetu.ps/e/MN0XK/1RyZP/i https://meetu.ps/e/MN0XK/1RyZP/i We are always looking for folks to help out.
- daveguy 3y agoI'm not sure what could justify comparing the announcement of a single investment to upgrade a plant to the capex of an entire auto company. Do you really think this $1.3B is Toyota's entire capex in EV?
- apapapa 3y agoIn addition to that, I wouldn't be surprised if they got 100 percent of that amount from the government in one way or another