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Payroll employment rises by 353K in January; unemployment rate remains at 3.7%
- ceejayoz 3y agoAlso notable: > The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised up by 9,000, from +173,000 to +182,000, and the change for December was revised up by 117,000, from +216,000 to +333,000. With these revisions, employment in November and December combined is 126,000 higher than previously reported.
- 1980phipsi 3y agoPartly driven by an update to seasonal factors and annual benchmarking.
- spacephysics 3y agoYeah wait for revisions. There’s been some multi-sigma shenanigans at first print in the recent past
- ironlake 3y agoThese numbers include upward revisions for past months. You make a good point about these types of numbers. It's hard to get accurate and timely data in the field of economics, and headlines will never show the revisions, so the information we see will usually be the least accurate (assuming accuracy grows with time). That said, these are good numbers and there's no reason to suspect they're not real.
- spacephysics 3y agoNumbers include part time positions, we’ve had a decrease of full time positions which I feel is misleading. Also accounting for multiple part time jobs vs a full time job
- pwthornton 3y agoEstimates for November and December were also revised up, by a combined 126,000 jobs.
- GenerWork 3y agoI feel like I've never heard so much about multi-sigma job beats than I did last year. At what point do we say that something weird is going on? For those who're wondering what the sigma beat was this time, it was a 4-sigma beat, which is pretty large.
- hkhgjhgn 3y ago[flagged]
- hkhgjhgn 3y ago[flagged]
- andrewmutz 3y agoDespite all the economic dooming on social media, it actually looks like we might get a soft landing. And if so, Jerome Powell and the fed deserve a ton of praise.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- toomuchtodo 3y agoCould only do it because of structural demographics (excess COVID deaths + retirements + ~3.6M Boomers retiring per year). Note shortages across various industries (teachers, bus drivers, healthcare workers, air traffic controllers, etc). New York City walked back its remote and flexible work policy due to hemorrhaging talent. The Federal government is holding onto a substantial cohort of workers because of its telework allowances (because those folks could simply retire instead). Citations: https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/cleveland-fed-district-data-brief/2022/cfddb-20220421-demographic-trends-weak-labor-force-growth https://www.clevelandfed.org/publications/cleveland-fed-dist... https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/4405350-telework-is-actually-rescuing-the-federal-workforce-its-abolition-wont-be-pretty/ https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/4405350-telework-is-a... https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-remote-work-eric-adams-softens-stance-on-working-from-home-for-city-employees/4106612/ https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/nyc-remote-work-eric-a... https://www.axios.com/2023/08/27/labor-shortages-air-traffic-health-care-teachers-police https://www.axios.com/2023/08/27/labor-shortages-air-traffic... https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531829-older-workers-propping-up-us-economy https://seekingalpha.com/article/4531829-older-workers-propp... | https://archive.ph/sKeyE https://archive.ph/sKeyE https://www.marketplace.org/2022/01/24/how-much-labor-force-has-been-lost-covid-19/ https://www.marketplace.org/2022/01/24/how-much-labor-force-... https://www.axios.com/2023/05/08/us-labor-shortage-older-workers https://www.axios.com/2023/05/08/us-labor-shortage-older-wor... https://www.businessinsider.com/baby-boomer-retirement-surge-spark-forever-labor-shortage-jobs-workers-2023-5 https://www.businessinsider.com/baby-boomer-retirement-surge... https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/21/american-workers-are-demanding-almost-80000-a-year-to-take-a-new-job.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/21/american-workers-are-demandi...
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- leereeves 3y agoEmployment has not (edit: recently) been the problem. The problem is that food prices are insanely high, home prices are insanely high, rent is insanely high, etc. Incomes haven't kept up with inflation, especially asset price inflation, and economic inequality is as bad as it has ever been. And this situation developed while unemployment rates were generally low (except during the pandemic). I think we're focusing on the wrong measures.
- redsoundbanner 3y ago>I think we're focusing on the wrong measures. I know we are and obviously it's intentional.
- ahstilde 3y agoUnemployment was the problem in 2008.
- blackoil 3y agoWill home prices ever come down without additional housing supply? If salaries are doubled, rent will also double because that much people will pay as they must live somewhere. Housing is essential; if supply is less than demand, no fiscal policy can help.
- leereeves 3y ago> if supply is less than demand, no fiscal policy can help Fiscal policy means government taxation and spending - subsidies for home building would be a fiscal policy and would help. I think you mean no monetary policy can help. Even there I disagree. Easy money mostly flowed into the hands of the wealthy, who then bought homes as investments, driving up home prices to the point that average people couldn't afford to buy them to live in.
- ghaff 3y agoOr people decide that core coastal metros aren't all they're cracked up to be or that they're willing to compromise on climate/other factors for much cheaper housing prices. There's no real shortage of housing--just housing that is in areas a fair number of people prefer given the choice.
- Waterluvian 3y agoIs there any sort of metric that describes how many people are making ends meet by some definition?
- ceejayoz 3y agoYes. https://www.census.gov/topics/income-poverty/poverty/guidance/poverty-measures.html https://www.census.gov/topics/income-poverty/poverty/guidanc... (More than one. Throw in things like CPI.)
- apwell23 3y ago[flagged]
- brianwawok 3y agoWere you displaced from getting a job in fruit picking or roofing by the immigration?
- apwell23 3y ago?
- busterarm 3y agoNo, but with mortgage interest over a 30 year period you're lucky if it doesn't cost you a million dollars to buy a house today. Housing isn't nearly meeting demand and all of those immigrants need to live somewhere too. They may not compete on jobs but they do compete for affordable places to live.
- brianwawok 3y agoYou can easily buy a house for 200k in my city. It just won't be in SF or NYC.
- dragontamer 3y agoThe Republican House just decided it was all a political game and not a crisis anymore. They've moved onto various impeachment debates rather than finalizing the border deal. The border is basically a Venezuelan crisis. The bulk this year are former Venezuelans looking for a new home. I'm not quite sure what we are supposed to do with them either... but I know that the policy of stabilizing South American states with our influence is very much frowned upon. So its just a slow-walking disaster. As one of the largest South American countries is collapsing before our eyes, politicians ignore the cause or root of the problem, but instead just make election-year rhetoric to drum up support. ------ Real talk: if people want to stop the migrant wave, the first line of defense is *MEXICO's SOUTHERN BORDER*, not the American border. Even during the Trump years, the bulk of Migrants back then were Guatemala and other countries south-of-Mexico.
- samsonradu 3y agoDoes the deficit increase[1] play a role in the very good economic numbers seen lately? [1]https://www.brookings.edu/articles/why-did-the-budget-deficit-grow-so-much-in-fy-2023-and-what-does-this-imply-about-the-future-debt-trajectory/ https://www.brookings.edu/articles/why-did-the-budget-defici...
- ceejayoz 3y agoThat article ends with a segment titled "bottom line" that states: > The recent increase in the deficit doesn’t fundamentally change the fiscal outlook for the U.S.
- new2this 3y agoGreat example of Betteridge's law of headlines. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headline...
- throw0101d 3y agoFederal spending is fifth in causes of real GDP growth: * https://www.bea.gov/news/blog/2024-01-25/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2023 https://www.bea.gov/news/blog/2024-01-25/gross-domestic-prod... Behind consumer spending, exports, state/local governments, business investment. Certainly the two stimulus packages helped early on, but things seem to be chugging along without that.
- ahstilde 3y agoPossibly, but not as much as Bidenomics' trillions of investments into American jobs, infrastructure, and manufacturing through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, CHIPS and Science Act, and Inflation Reduction Act. The Fed is also signaling very clearly to the market the cost of money. This, combined with frowing understanding of LLM-driven efficiencies, are letting businesses feel comfortable with investing in revenue returning initiatives. And more revenue usually means more jobs
- alecco 3y ago> While #GDP surprised to the upside in Q4, it wasn't a healthy expansion. To garner a $329 billion increase in economic growth it required a $834 billion increase in debt. Or rather $2.53 for each $1 of economic growth. https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts/status/1751930127519203459 https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts/status/1751930127519203459
- throw0101d 3y agoRecent post from a weblog I follow, "This is the Best U.S. Economy Since the 1990s": * https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/01/this-is-the-best-u-s-economy-since-the-1990s/ https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/01/this-is-the-best-u-... The main pain point would probably be housing prices/costs/price-to-income rations: * https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/home-price-income-ratio-reaches-record-high-0 https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/home-price-income-ratio-re... Edit: also, the run-up in food prices over the last little while is not great either (this is global phenomena AFAICT, and not US-specific). Hopefully inflation stabilizing will help, and wage gains will catch up over time.
- seydor 3y agoDo Americans feel like they re in the best economy? (Here in yurop it's doom and gloom nothing like the 90s)
- ceejayoz 3y agoPublic perception frequently doesn't match reality. Crime is a similar situation; nightly and 24/7 cable news highlight lurid cases six states away, so large swaths of the population feel unsafe despite living (statistically) in one of the safest societies ever to exist.
- leereeves 3y agoPublic perception matches people's experiences. That may or not match the measures that economists and rich people care about, like GDP or stock market gains. Down on main street, people are cutting back because they can no longer afford the lifestyle they used to afford. Edit: This has been discussed many times here, so I can only assume the downvoters don't care how "the other half" lives. Homes [for sale] “unaffordable” in 99% of nation for average American https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37708109 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37708109 Housing is now unaffordable for a record half of all U.S. renters https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39128859 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39128859 US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37112604 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37112604 But sure, there's another perspective that sees "the Best U.S. Economy Since the 1990s".
- game_the0ry 3y agoAssuming there are no big revisions, this means its less likely that the federal reserve will lower interest rates. If anything, they may consider increasing interest rates.
- dataflow 3y agoAnyone else feel like way more than 3.7% of the people they see are unemployed and looking for jobs? Or is it just me? Am I missing something?
- elicash 3y agoTech has been an outlier of late, in terms of layoffs.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- edgyquant 3y agoNot unemployed but I know plenty who are under employed or looking for new jobs and it seems hard to find one across industries (medical, HR and tech.) Doesn’t read like your typical market with <4% unemployment. I’m sure we are at that, but the types of employment and market conditions aren’t great and people are taking anything they can get, sometimes multiple jobs, just to stay afloat.
- HDThoreaun 3y agoTech is the worst job sector right now. Everyone I know not in tech is doing quite well.
- srackey 3y ago[flagged]
- alecco 3y agoElection year statistics.
- ricardo81 3y agoWhatever cold the US caught or thought it could catch, the UK still seems to be suffering the flu. UK stocks seem so unloved at the moment, and oft led by US sentiment.
- mywittyname 3y ago> UK stocks seem so unloved at the moment, and oft led by US sentiment. I'm going to go ahead and blame the choices made by your brethren and politicians for this one. A bunch of of analysts said brexit was going to be bad for the UK economy in a number of specific ways. The population didn't listen, and no leaders stepped in to save the day. You can't really blame investors for treating your country like a toxic waste dump when they openly accept toxic waste and leaders are out there pushing the idea that toxic waste will bring in more money and isn't really toxic.
- edgyquant 3y agoIt isn’t just Britain. Europe as a whole has performed poorly in contrast to the US. The rest of your post is politically partisan rhetoric and not useful for real analysis.
- mywittyname 3y agoThe tradeoff for brexit was increased political autonomy at the expense of trade relations. When companies said they'd reduce investment if brexit went through, they weren't lying. Investors hate uncertainty. It's not politics to point that out. The issue with energy/food prices and mainland Europe is a separate issue that is also impacting UK. But lack of investment is so obviously tied to brexit that the only partisans are the people claiming it's not related.
- edgyquant 3y agoThe US has, from a policy perspective, become far more protectionist in the past 7 years and this is only looking to continue. I would not expect a direct correlation between the US and European economies going forward and if the protectionism only gets worst I would expect the economies, GDPs and the like, to greatly diverge in favor of the US.
- elicash 3y agoI'm glad we're seemingly out of the "good news is bad news" territory, where over-performing employment numbers kept driving investors to worry that the fed would further raise rates. I wouldn't say we're in "good news is good news" territory--SPY is basically flat for the moment--but it's much better than when a great jobs report would start a panic of SELL SELL SELL!