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Pooled number of deaths by age group in EU
- moi2388 3y agoSo many people die at 26..
- collyw 3y agoThat vaccine worked out really well for under 45's didn't it?
- kozak 3y agoWhy is there higher mortality in winter?
- t0bia_s 3y agoEspecially in group 0-14 (higher than during covid) and 15-45 (slightly less than during covid but still more than pre-covid).
- thebruce87m 3y agoRespiratory illnesses peak in winter. There was always a push for flu vaccinations in the lead up to winter, and now covid in the mix too. https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/winter-illness-guide https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseas...
- WanderPanda 3y agoWhy is that in turn? I’ve heard people refer to low vitamin D levels but I’m sceptic if that is the reason (would be so easy to fix)
- hprotagonist 3y agobecause that's how the phase locking shook out.
- paavope 3y agoOne potential mechanism is people staying indoors more in winter, making all kinds of illnesses spread more easily.
- Erratic6576 3y agoDon’t you dare open that window!
- hprotagonist 3y agove must have ze luftink!
- brnt 3y agoWould be interesting to know if Germans have less of a flu season.
- teamonkey 3y agoCold affects the immune response. https://time.com/6238816/why-viruses-spread-in-cold-weather/ https://time.com/6238816/why-viruses-spread-in-cold-weather/
- alex_young 3y agoCold temps actually make your nose less effective at fighting off viral infections before they move to your lungs etc. https://www.jacionline.org/article/S0091-6749(22)01423-3/fulltext https://www.jacionline.org/article/S0091-6749(22)01423-3/ful...
- brewdad 3y agoLower indoor humidity levels also contribute.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- emmelaich 3y agoHeat kills germs, and from memory SARS-CoV-2 is particularly vulnerable.
- resolutebat 3y agoDidn't stop COVID from rampaging through plenty of hot places like India.
- mcmoor 3y agoThey have unexpectedly lower excess death from initial covid... Until delta variant comes which isn't fazed at all by summer of 2021.
- emmelaich 3y agoIndeed, it varies by strain. I was remarking on the initial variant, but I have not followed up on the later variants.
- emmelaich 3y agoJust means there's more than just heat at play, which is sorta obvious.
- Sakos 3y agoNot quite. The cold temporarily weakens our immune systems, particularly in our upper respiratory tract. Couple that with increased proximity to other people in many places when people are more likely to use public transport.
- karim79 3y agoHigher transmissibility of certain viruses could be one reason. If more people are catching it, it's not hard to imagine that more people are getting sick from it, and infecting others. From one study: > Our study shows an important dependency of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to weather/climate, with each 1°C reduction in mean regional temperature below 10°C leading to a 0.16-unit increase in R0 , or each 1 g/m3 reduction in AH leading to a 0.15-unit increase in R0. Northern hemisphere countries experienced a new wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections during autumnal transition from summer to winter (colder temperatures and lower absolute humidity levels), while still actively maintaining control strategies. When planning to adjust the level of restrictions on social activities, public health strategies need to account for the increased transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 when/where cold and dry winter conditions are prevalent. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8211690/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8211690/
- collyw 3y agoIt's more likely to be lower levels of vitamin D in winter. Viral transmission is very poorly understood.
- elmolino89 3y agoApart from respiratory infections: cardiovascular events. There was a famous paper about guys dropping dead while/after cleaning snow from the sidewalks/driveways (Illinois?). Not necessary from the physical shovelling but from just riding a domestic snowplow. It is good enough be exposed to cold: vessels constrict, blood pressure rises, you may drop dead when old, obese, unfit and with atherosclerosis. *edit*: article stating that the spikes in mortality were within 3 days of a cold blast. https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/155/1/80/134292 https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/155/1/80/134292
- rightbyte 3y agoWhat happened week 40, 2023, in the age group 15-44 yo? Is it a data entry error? EDIT: Ok Israel is in the data. That is a sad revealation and the headline is wrong.
- smfjaw 3y agothat's such a sad statistic, people in the prime of their life, mainly caused by being out enjoying life at the wrong time
- Macha 3y agoAlso probably worth mentioning that the graph doesn't start at 0.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- t0bia_s 3y agoIsrael? Where did you read this?
- ma2t 3y agoIt's one of the 27 participating countries listed at the top of the page.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- stanleykm 3y agoUnfortunate that they apparently dont appear to include Palestinians in that statistic.
- trallnag 3y agoIt wasn't included because it isn't part of Europe's sphere of influence unlike Israel
- WanderPanda 3y agoAnyone confused about the horizontal axis’ tick labels? Usually the range befor e.g. “5” is 4-5. But here it would be 2003-2004 in case of “2005”. I never consciously thought about this but is this way of indexing the standard?
- jeroenhd 3y agoThey range from 1 to 51/52/53, so they're week numbers. The description of the graph mentions the data is based on weekly result, though it would probably be better if the hover popup would make the date range covered a bit clearer.
- runemadsen 3y agoMy company Design Systems International (https://designsystems.international/ https://designsystems.international/) designed this site during COVID in 2020 when the interest in mortality data suddenly exploded. Happy to see it on the front page!
- RIMMRAMMBUS 3y ago[flagged]
- martythemaniak 3y agoInteresting, didn't realize that the winter of 2023 was about as bad or worse than the winter of 2022. It seems this is the first normal winter since 2019.
- RIMMRAMMBUS 3y ago[flagged]
- jeffbee 3y agoIn America, more people have already died of covid in January than normally die of the flu in a whole year. At some point "baseline" is going to rise to incorporate this new thing.
- jprival 3y agoit’s been about 3x as bad as flu in January: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm edit: which is higher than some recent annual flu totals they have, but considerably lower than estimates of annual flu deaths I’ve seen elsewhere? I feel like I’m missing some context for interpreting these numbers.
- Macha 3y agoMeasures to mitigate COVID are also effective (arguably more effective) on the flu. So the years where society was trying to stop COVID had much lower than usual flu rates.
- rsynnott 3y agoIn many countries, including the US, death reporting is a bit of a mess. Those numbers will likely continue to tick up as numbers come in. In Ireland, at one point in the pandemic, a lot of attention was paid to rip.ie, an obituaries website, because the non-hospital official death count was _months_ in arrears; the mechanisms around death reporting were just not designed for realtime analysis.
- jongjong 3y agoHmmm the peaks seem to have become a lot higher after 2020. Too bad it doesn't let us see before 2018.
- polishrandomguy 3y agoSucks that Poland did not include itself in these
- jesusofnazarath 3y ago[dead]
- photochemsyn 3y agoIs there a lot of random statistical noise in these esimates of 'normal background mortality'? Prior to Covid you mostly saw these 'excess death' figures in relation to heat waves IIRC, e.g. if 3,000 people were estimated to have died from a heat wave, that figure was obtained by subtracting the actual mortality from the expected mortality over a time period of the heat wave, then reporting that as the death count. The attribution seems a bit challenging in retrospect. Do people make death forecasts, like with weather forecasts, and use that as a test of forecasting skill and the assumption of relatively non-random average outcomes under normal conditions? P.S. check out the CDC mortality dashboard: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/mortality-dashboard.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/mortality-dashboard.htm
- mikeyouse 3y agoIt certainly is challenging, but there are a lot of statistical methods to gain confidence in those estimates. E.g; Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022 - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-023-02419-z https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-023-02419-z They looked at the 2022 outlier year in terms of heat across Europe, and then found strong correlations with the hottest weeks in the hottest locations in terms of heat-related deaths from the trends established over the prior 5 years. Seems pretty robust and they did a number of tests to ensure it was a reliable result.
- t0bia_s 3y agoTo put in perspective, you should compare numbers with mortality caused by cold weather, which is significantly bigger (about 8 times more). It's 4 594 098 deaths by cold and 489 075 deaths by heat during years 2000-2019, source: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(21)00081-4/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5...
- mikeyouse 3y agoSure, but my original post was restricted to Europe and per that Lancet study, it's only maybe 3.5x more (660k cold vs. 180k hot) -- hence why the 2022 year stood out so much. The authors of the prior study estimated 70,000 excess deaths due to heat in 2022 alone which is nearly 40% of the total for the 20 year period from 2000-2019 -- or about 8x the 'background rate' of excess heat deaths. If we are seeing warming and years like 2022 are going to be more common, that's a really, really big deal.
- daneel_w 3y agoThe title should be "in Europe", not "in EU". Though it's peculiar that Israel is included if the data is supposed to be about the European continent.
- netsharc 3y agoI was wondering what the spike in The 15-44 graph near the end of 2023 was... then I saw that Israel is included. RIP.
- 3ug3n1c5 3y agoIf the data from Gaza were included, a new scale would have to be invented. R.I.P.
- Sakos 3y agohttps://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/background-data/ https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/background-data/ For whatever reason, Israel participates in this by providing the necessary data.
- bald 3y agoCyprus is also included while it's on the Asian continental plate
- nycdatasci 3y agoNot sure if this post is meant to highlight continued excess mortality despite the official end of covid? According to wastewater monitoring, covid is thriving: https://biobot.io/data/ https://biobot.io/data/
- collyw 3y agoNumbers in under 45 age groups goes up in 2021. Safe and effective.
- koqoo 3y ago[flagged]
- tasty_freeze 3y agoYou have made an assertion. Do you have any links to credible sources for this? Where is this #proof? I'm in a band with a guy who, despite being told we want to focus on music in our limited rehearsal time, is always bringing up his conspiracy rants, including the "facts" that the vaccine is killing millions of people, that hospitals were empty except when the TV cameras were rolling, and that the spike proteins are ultra toxic and covid itself was a nothing-burger. He always refuses to give sources using the automatic response, "I'm not your google monkey!". One of his claims was specific enough that I could find the exact website where the claim came from, and it completely misrepresented the data it was based on. I emailed him the link I found, explained why it was BS, and gave him links to expert sources that explained why that original site was grossly mistaken. After a couple months I mentioned that he never responded to my email and his response: What email? I never got an email. It is partly tribal, and partly people LOVE being in on the secret truth that all the sheep are too stupid to find. Anyway, koqoo, please prove me wrong. If I'm wrong, I want to know about it, but simply saying claiming your beliefs are correct won't convince anyway.
- stefantalpalaru 3y ago[dead]
- tjpnz 3y agoI'm obliged to deal with one such individual. Unlike yours they have provided sources, typically in the form of images designed for disinfo hit and runs on Instagram and Facebook. I look up the studies they reference, and as in your case it totally misrepresents the data. The worst thing about it is the people behind them know exactly what they're doing.
- croes 3y agoHere is the COVID-vaccination rate across Europe https://www.statista.com/statistics/1196071/covid-19-vaccination-rate-in-europe-by-country/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1196071/covid-19-vaccina... I see no correlation
- snapplebobapple 3y ago[flagged]
- 2dvisio 3y agoAnybody who knows why there might have been a 10-fold increase of excess deaths in the 0-14 years group (as seen in the cumulative plots) right at the beginning of 2024 compared with other years?
- rightbyte 3y agoLater influenza season maybe? 2023's curve seemed to lag 2022's abit, which spilled over to 2024?
- n_plus_1_acc 3y agoWhile I appreciate the data, I think it's presented in an overly dramatic way because the y-axis does not start at zero.
- rightbyte 3y agoThat is the point of a "excess death" graph though. Filter out the "DC" component, like on a oscilloscope.