5 ms·

I think part of what we are seeing is a skills mismatch. It's not that the jobs aren't there imho, just that the population has not caught up. You'd think wit

I think part of what we are seeing is a skills mismatch. It's not that the jobs aren't there imho, just that the population has not caught up. You'd think with the absurd amount being spent on college education this would not be the case, but alas it is. Also we are seeing a lot of retiring trades workers and a shortage there. I have a feeling some of these professions are going to see a resurgence in wages relative to other areas of the economy.

wegfawefgawefg 3y ago
I have been programming for 11 years but always have a hard time finding a job. My friends almost had no job through their entire 20's. They have degrees in stem, software, medicine, and chemical engineering. Every field feels either dying or saturated. Every company gets hundreds to thousands of applicants per day online. If you walk in the building they tell you to apply online. It has been like this for as long as we have known.
- nightski 3y ago
  The actual data does not align with your anecdote. Unemployment is historically low.
  - lurking15 3y ago
    In so far as data is used to qualify politicians and support agendas, this argument is nothing more than a thought-terminating cliche. Data is so abused and any statistician or quantitative person can tell you how hard it is to collect quality data and support a conclusion with certainty without fooling yourself. And that's assuming good intent, the malicious/self-interested case is totally in play here, especially with regards to unemployment.
    - nightski 3y ago
      As so "trust me bro" is in effect eh?
      - lurking15 3y ago
        is it incomprehensible to you that "the data says" is a "trust me bro" statement?
        nightski 3y ago
        Yes, given that it is reported by trusted institutions such as the St Louis Fed. Now if you have alternative data or sources which are in conflict please share.
        lurking15 3y ago
        The conclusions you draw from data do not disprove what the GP said. First you should be citing labor participation, and unemployment says nothing about the quality of jobs. Nevermind that even labor participation is definitive either. And considering the site "truflation" finds inflation since 2020 to be at 22%, that's a quarter devaluation of purchasing power which seems accurate to anyone participating in the economy. And to everyone celebrating "low" inflation now, that devaluation never goes away as the interest rate compounds and wages just aren't rising that fast either. The point is that governments are trying to paint a rosy picture when many people participating in the economy do not believe it to be so rosy. And considering that politicians are performing atrociously, the reality is probably that the numbers are not capturing the reality of the economy.
  - password54321 3y ago
    Something is not right if that is also true for CS grads as there are more CS grads than ever, unless they are moving into unrelated fields or worse, working part-time at a supermarket. For example, how many more web developers does the world really need especially when we have tools like Wordpress? Or is the industry hiring 10 people for every one person job?
    - wegfawefgawefg 3y ago
      Ha, my web developer friend got laid off, couldnt find a job, and now he drives the bus. My other friend who has worked finance his whole life has had to work at a hardware store now. People I know at software gigs are constantly telling me theyre scared of getting layed off. That includes at apple. I know two junior devs who are working at grocery store, and a bar right now.
  - wegfawefgawefg 3y ago
    It is very strange isnt it. There must be some nuance to be found in the data. Multimodality at the least.
piva00 3y ago
We are also seeing an immense mismatch between worker productivity vs salaries. Per worker productivity has increased a lot since the 80s but most of the value added hasn't been translated into wages but captured by the capital elite. While this happens it doesn't matter so much that societies adapt their skillsets, workers will keep experiencing wages depressed relative to their productivity. At some point this will completely break the social contract.
- nightski 3y ago
  Maybe some has been captured by the "capital elite" or whatever that is (I think personally that is more a function of globalism). But it's also just been captured by society itself. We now have access to far more goods and services than ever before, and for incredibly cheap.
  - piva00 3y ago
    > Maybe some has been captured by the "capital elite" or whatever that is (I think personally that is more a function of globalism). Whatever that is: it's the people who have capital to deploy, the ones who have workers, it's not a difficult concept. > But it's also just been captured by society itself. We now have access to far more goods and services than ever before, and for incredibly cheap. That is just products getting cheaper due to technology for production, the surplus value of labour is not in this equation. Society didn't capture part of the surplus of value, we just got cheaper products while wages stagnate and the capital class accumulated more and more of wealth. Buying trinkets doesn't make you wealthier.
- lurking15 3y ago
  It's an inflation phenomenon, it largely stems from the explosive growth and centralization of the government post-WWII and subsequent abolishment of the gold standard. You exchange labor for Nancy Pelosi's (alternatively replace your preferred congress person) Chuck-E-Cheese tokens and those tokens are being created out of thin air (treasuries being the gold replacement) to finance whatever war, bureaucracy and any other boondoggle imaginable. Now instead of getting tokens that are constrained in their scarcity (gold based), you've got constantly depreciating ones, which means your employer can pay you less every year without lifting a finger. The playing field is in their favor in an inflationary environment cause it's now the laborers' burden to search for new employment if they want a raise.
ryandrake 3y ago
> I have a feeling some of these professions are going to see a resurgence in wages relative to other areas of the economy. This is what should happen to wages in a competitive labor market where there is a legitimate shortage of a particular skill, but unfortunately companies will try to do pretty much anything except raising wages. So instead of paying plumbers $100/hr, the positions just go unfilled, and there's currently a multiple-month wait for any plumbing work where I live.
- cafard 3y ago
  Where is that? In Washington, DC, non-emergency plumbing calls might take a week. Emergency (forgot to turn off the outside water during a cold snap, basement flooded) seems to be handled quickly.
  - ryandrake 3y ago
    Let's just say NorCal, well outside the Bay Area. Agreed, somehow emergency service is fast, but non-emergency has quite a waiting list. Same for other types of trade service like HVAC repair, and even house painting. Another thing that can't be understated is how hard it is to just get these guys to call you back. Nobody answers the phone, and when you leave a message I'd say maybe 25-50% even call you back. Here I am with a fistful of money and nobody wants to take it. It also took me 8 months to schedule a first-time doctor's visit, so maybe it's just the new normal for everything--not just the trades.
tennisflyi 3y ago
> It's not that the jobs aren't there imho, just that the population has not caught up. You'd think with the absurd amount being spent on college education this would not be the case, but alas it is. It's the opposite. Many companies are too picky with their coffers

wegfawefgawefg 3y ago

I have been programming for 11 years but always have a hard time finding a job. My friends almost had no job through their entire 20's. They have degrees in stem, software, medicine, and chemical engineering. Every field feels either dying or saturated. Every company gets hundreds to thousands of applicants per day online. If you walk in the building they tell you to apply online. It has been like this for as long as we have known.

nightski 3y ago
The actual data does not align with your anecdote. Unemployment is historically low.
- lurking15 3y ago
  In so far as data is used to qualify politicians and support agendas, this argument is nothing more than a thought-terminating cliche. Data is so abused and any statistician or quantitative person can tell you how hard it is to collect quality data and support a conclusion with certainty without fooling yourself. And that's assuming good intent, the malicious/self-interested case is totally in play here, especially with regards to unemployment.
  - nightski 3y ago
    As so "trust me bro" is in effect eh?
    - lurking15 3y ago
      is it incomprehensible to you that "the data says" is a "trust me bro" statement?
      - nightski 3y ago
        Yes, given that it is reported by trusted institutions such as the St Louis Fed. Now if you have alternative data or sources which are in conflict please share.
        lurking15 3y ago
        The conclusions you draw from data do not disprove what the GP said. First you should be citing labor participation, and unemployment says nothing about the quality of jobs. Nevermind that even labor participation is definitive either. And considering the site "truflation" finds inflation since 2020 to be at 22%, that's a quarter devaluation of purchasing power which seems accurate to anyone participating in the economy. And to everyone celebrating "low" inflation now, that devaluation never goes away as the interest rate compounds and wages just aren't rising that fast either. The point is that governments are trying to paint a rosy picture when many people participating in the economy do not believe it to be so rosy. And considering that politicians are performing atrociously, the reality is probably that the numbers are not capturing the reality of the economy.
- password54321 3y ago
  Something is not right if that is also true for CS grads as there are more CS grads than ever, unless they are moving into unrelated fields or worse, working part-time at a supermarket. For example, how many more web developers does the world really need especially when we have tools like Wordpress? Or is the industry hiring 10 people for every one person job?
  - wegfawefgawefg 3y ago
    Ha, my web developer friend got laid off, couldnt find a job, and now he drives the bus. My other friend who has worked finance his whole life has had to work at a hardware store now. People I know at software gigs are constantly telling me theyre scared of getting layed off. That includes at apple. I know two junior devs who are working at grocery store, and a bar right now.
- wegfawefgawefg 3y ago
  It is very strange isnt it. There must be some nuance to be found in the data. Multimodality at the least.

piva00 3y ago

We are also seeing an immense mismatch between worker productivity vs salaries. Per worker productivity has increased a lot since the 80s but most of the value added hasn't been translated into wages but captured by the capital elite. While this happens it doesn't matter so much that societies adapt their skillsets, workers will keep experiencing wages depressed relative to their productivity. At some point this will completely break the social contract.

nightski 3y ago
Maybe some has been captured by the "capital elite" or whatever that is (I think personally that is more a function of globalism). But it's also just been captured by society itself. We now have access to far more goods and services than ever before, and for incredibly cheap.
- piva00 3y ago
  > Maybe some has been captured by the "capital elite" or whatever that is (I think personally that is more a function of globalism). Whatever that is: it's the people who have capital to deploy, the ones who have workers, it's not a difficult concept. > But it's also just been captured by society itself. We now have access to far more goods and services than ever before, and for incredibly cheap. That is just products getting cheaper due to technology for production, the surplus value of labour is not in this equation. Society didn't capture part of the surplus of value, we just got cheaper products while wages stagnate and the capital class accumulated more and more of wealth. Buying trinkets doesn't make you wealthier.
lurking15 3y ago
It's an inflation phenomenon, it largely stems from the explosive growth and centralization of the government post-WWII and subsequent abolishment of the gold standard. You exchange labor for Nancy Pelosi's (alternatively replace your preferred congress person) Chuck-E-Cheese tokens and those tokens are being created out of thin air (treasuries being the gold replacement) to finance whatever war, bureaucracy and any other boondoggle imaginable. Now instead of getting tokens that are constrained in their scarcity (gold based), you've got constantly depreciating ones, which means your employer can pay you less every year without lifting a finger. The playing field is in their favor in an inflationary environment cause it's now the laborers' burden to search for new employment if they want a raise.

ryandrake 3y ago

> I have a feeling some of these professions are going to see a resurgence in wages relative to other areas of the economy. This is what should happen to wages in a competitive labor market where there is a legitimate shortage of a particular skill, but unfortunately companies will try to do pretty much anything except raising wages. So instead of paying plumbers $100/hr, the positions just go unfilled, and there's currently a multiple-month wait for any plumbing work where I live.

cafard 3y ago
Where is that? In Washington, DC, non-emergency plumbing calls might take a week. Emergency (forgot to turn off the outside water during a cold snap, basement flooded) seems to be handled quickly.
- ryandrake 3y ago
  Let's just say NorCal, well outside the Bay Area. Agreed, somehow emergency service is fast, but non-emergency has quite a waiting list. Same for other types of trade service like HVAC repair, and even house painting. Another thing that can't be understated is how hard it is to just get these guys to call you back. Nobody answers the phone, and when you leave a message I'd say maybe 25-50% even call you back. Here I am with a fistful of money and nobody wants to take it. It also took me 8 months to schedule a first-time doctor's visit, so maybe it's just the new normal for everything--not just the trades.

tennisflyi 3y ago

> It's not that the jobs aren't there imho, just that the population has not caught up. You'd think with the absurd amount being spent on college education this would not be the case, but alas it is. It's the opposite. Many companies are too picky with their coffers